Persona 3 Mafia - Game Cancelled - Mass Destronktion

[Green Poet]

However, I'm also curious as to the fact that, the moment you shot Shinori, you INSTANTLY jumped on Terrador. Kinda smelled bad of you setting him up there, which is why I wanted to know why you killed Shinori- to kill someone you truly found scummy? Or to nail/pin the blame on Terrador for it?

I pretended to be confused, of course. We already knew that Terrador was claiming nightvig, not dayvig, before I vigged Shinori.

My kill on Shinori was made with the intent to directly kill scum, not to have grounds of implicating Terrador later (I mean, really, I would've just CCed and straight-up shot Terrador if that was the case.)

Is there a particular reason you're interested in my motivations in killing Shinori? I'm not quite sure why you're trying to assert how poor the kill was; I see it and I apologize for that. But nothing about this contradicts my claim, seeing as I'd already killed FFM.

In addition, your comment in itself does strike me as rather aggressive, so mind you- "Pot meet kettle" in terms of how you dealt with Shinori's case. My vote would have been likely changed/moved off of you at my own discretion, and I don't care for people demanding my vote to be switched on/off someone, thank you.

You're right, and I'm sorry for coming off as aggressive. Could we start seeing past Shinori, now, though?

[Eurykins]

I guess I was still stumped in why he was chosen as a target/kill, but as you said (and I'll fully agree with the notion): You killed FFM as well D1, and speculation more about Shinori dying isn't help us any.

And it's fine, regarding the vote/latter comment (I just get peeved with certain things, like wrt when my vote was first initially tampered with by the vote swapper- I don't like the idea of people controlling what I 'do' in terms of gameplay like that, so I too was perhaps a bit waspish with that response. Sorry for that as well.).

I'm just now even more confused as to the situations as a whole and what to make of the rest of us: We now have our Insomniac day vig confirmed, knocked out cop, claimed doc (not sure if fully believing Junko just yet on it), and odd-night Vig. Along with a tracker, mayor, and vanilla, there's also an unknown vote swapper lurking about, and aside from that- town is seeming ridiculously strong right now. Multiple vig shots + as much power as I'm seeing is making for a seemingly unbalanced game set [Considering that one of the scum members was also potentially able to be recruited to town-side until the edits in-game were made], unless someone's lying somewhere.

Would like to see/hear from Sky, Blue, Junko, Wen, Terra, and the rest of the guys in terms of their thoughts/reads of the situation atm.

[Eurykins]

...Derp, I'm a GOD at typos. Geez. Go me.

"...and speculating more about Shinori dying isn't going to help us any."

[Wen Yang]

I can confirm that I have OC with GP, and that he is town, and that we did talk about Shinori prior to the shooting.

[Terrador]

Just putting this out there: if GP was scum, she would probably have murdered me, if only because a non-scum-aligned kill is something she would absolutely not want, and I wasn't looking particularly townie at that moment. In my opinion, that plus townie play equals a clear on her end, assuming nobody else steps forward and claims she's a dirty liar. GP and I both being scum is... literally inconceivable.

I just got back from school and am starting to put together ISOs on everyone who's alive to date, after which I'll do lynch priority, speculation, etc. I'm not sure whom my vote is on at the moment, so I'm gonna go ahead and

##Unvote for the moment.

[Junk]

With kop confirming just now I doubt GP is scum. Unless they are both scum but I need to stop paranoid like Eury said. I say we lynch breezy. Sky has been lurking here for a really long time though.

[Sky_Paladin]

I am not lurking. I am re-reading the whole damn game and taking notes. I've been doing it for about 2 hours now.

[Bluedoom]

Hmm, I trust GP sooo ##Unvote ##Vote: Terrador

First off, I'll open with a claim since apparently this is what's happening today. I'm a martyr, for thos e who don't know what it is(Junko), let's say the martyr targets A. If anyone else targets A, they target the martyr instead. Aka a kind of protection role.

I tried to martyr SB last night but failed, leading this http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=46996&p=3025689

I also crumbed it here

If you look back at FFM's flip you'll notice that his 'strongman' was basically a shot that couldn't be roleblocked.

I suspect the mafia have other variants where their kills can't be protected against or redirected. That could be ther other 'strongman' shots that they're using.

And most certainly here(underlined):

If the Dayvig claims immediately after they shoot, they avoid risking mafia claiming the vigshot at MYLO and thus a counterclaim ensuing.

If the Dayvig claims especially after they're out of shots, they're a bait for the mafia to kill, thus drawing the kill away from other power roles.

I do think that with my role, 3 NK from anti-town is believable. I honestly don't think Terra AND GP can both be town with multiple vigshots, and the rules say only the nyxists are anti-town, which I guess would imply that GP is confirmed town.

This is my Terra case- http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=46996&p=3025689

I don't get scummy vibes from Eury so its probably among kirsche/SP/ Breezy for scum if its not Terra but currently they're just starting to pick up in activity(hopefully) so it'd be hard for me to make a substantial case. I agree with GP on Breezy possibly being lurkscum but I'm more confident with Terra atm.

[Terrador]

Hmm, I trust GP sooo ##Unvote ##Vote: Terrador

First off, I'll open with a claim since apparently this is what's happening today. I'm a martyr, for thos e who don't know what it is(Junko), let's say the martyr targets A. If anyone else targets A, they target the martyr instead. Aka a kind of protection role.

I tried to martyr SB last night but failed, leading this http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=46996&p=3025689

I also crumbed it here

And most certainly here(underlined):

I do think that with my role, 3 NK from anti-town is believable. I honestly don't think Terra AND GP can both be town with multiple vigshots, and the rules say only the nyxists are anti-town, which I guess would imply that GP is confirmed town.

This is my Terra case- http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=46996&p=3025689

I don't get scummy vibes from Eury so its probably among kirsche/SP/ Breezy for scum if its not Terra but currently they're just starting to pick up in activity(hopefully) so it'd be hard for me to make a substantial case. I agree with GP on Breezy possibly being lurkscum but I'm more confident with Terra atm.

Not gonna lie, your case isn't bad. It relies on setup spec I don't agree with, but you gunning for me really doesn't look scummy in my eyes at all. However, what about the Euklyd kill seems scum to you? I freely admit that it was a poor decision, but why would I kill Euklyd as scum? I had my thought processes for thinking he was scum (even if I explained them poorly and they would up being wroooooong, sadly), but why Euklyd? There were lurkier people to suspect as ITPs, and townier people to kill to stop town from keeping their shit together.

[Terrador]

Oh, forgot to add this in my last post:

ISOs are going well; I'm about halfway through the wall. They may be a bit on the brief side (it's a long wall, but it's not THAT long), and if someone thinks I need to go more in-depth about someone, I will.

Would those of you who are online rather I post what I have as I go, or lump it all into one enormous wall?

[Green Poet]

Would those of you who are online rather I post what I have as I go, or lump it all into one enormous wall?

I'd prefer the former; I'm presently trying to read people as well but having new stuff sooner always helps.

[Bluedoom]

walls are too much to read so yeah.

As for why would you kill Euklyd? This:

[spoiler=Why Euklyd?]Here's my logic on my kill. I tried to rule players out.

All said and done, Euklyd seems like the most clutch kill; difficult to define as scum, but stands out above almost everyone else. If he isn't, my other candidates have TONS of town support for lynch anyhow.

Bold is also a good reason for scum to kill Euklyd- There wasn't any town support to get them lynched, but your other 'scumreads' had support for a lynch.

[Terrador]

Sure thing, GP. I'm done through Breezy at the moment, then I'll do associative reads on Refa and FFM.

-----

Alright, ISO time. Just gonna go on down the list, then do associative reads from the angle of dead folks.

Junko Enoshima:

This isn't someone I'm going to judge by the quality of their posts, simply because they range from not the best to downright awful. Looking at motivations is going to get me a lot further.

Frankly, mea culpa scummy behavior suggests someone with reason to be overly defensive--consistent with both a new doctor and a scum. These posts seem very strange, namely as it's standard practice for the role PM to include very specific words about how night actions work--the standard line is "you may reply ##Action: User to action that user. Explanation, flavor, yada yada." Junko's also been paying close attention to the game, and claiming Doctor runs counter to a rather specific example I made, and I imagine that, from self-admitted wiki reading, Junko would read a Doctor page (which I suspect would also be clear about Doctors liking to shut the hell up?). Why claim Doctor unless he's jumping the gun to protect himself from lynch? Why not vanilla town, to avoid being night-killed? There was no evidence yet to out him as Doctor.

I have no idea what to make of Junko from his own posts. I'll get back to him once I get some associative reads.

kirsche:

BBM's inactivity was forecasted before the game, so I'm not going to hold slightly scummy posting against him. He seems to be genuinely hunting, willing to admit when he's wrong and at one point trying to punch through potential waffling to some extent. From his own posts, I can't see anything scummy here; kirsche's own play outweighs my mild scum read against BBM.

Looks town, but associative reads are gonna be pretty important here, as well.

Bluedoom:

I'm gutreading Marth as a lazy player, so take that into account with this read. Trying to get a hammer without really contributing any scumhunting isn't exactly a Town Play of the Year, but recommending that the rolecop not go public isn't really something scum has reason to point out (especially since, at that point, Junko might have been a cop fishing for a target). This claim that I'm lining up lynches is utterly awful, but his case on me later actually has good merit. It looks town to me, frankly. Especially seeing as he went back on it, even though his push would have gone a long way towards taking my head as scum (seeing as that was when I still looked pretty damn anti-town). With GP's apparent support and Marth continuing to push, this could've been a mislynch. Instead, he's playing the case by ear, sticking to his setup spec even if it doesn't get a role that's pretty absolutely confirmed to be anti-Nyx, even if I'm not town. I think that says a lot about what he's trying to do, and even though I'm his lynch target, I would place Marth fairly firmly in the "Town" column.

Looks town to me. Unless there are some really awful associations with FFM and Refa, I wouldn't have him as a lynch priority anytime remotely soon.

Headhunter/Wen Yang:

He made an excellent snipe on my play earlier, and that, coupled with an obvious lack of serious suspicion towards a claimed killing role, leads me to believe he's town. He's also cahooted with Green Poet without a counterclaim coming forward about the day vigilante, which would be so ballsy as to nearly guarantee a lynch (seeing as both would almost certainly be dead by the end of Night 3) and not a move that scum would like to make with another town killing role on the loose and maybe only one member! I agree with his setup speculation, which tips my read on him even more towards town. Okay with both claimed killers--I can't even fathom a scum explanation for this, and I've read him town all day long. I don't think I have to waste much time citing specific posts here.

I'd call Wen all but confirmed at this point in the game.

Breezy:

He's posted some, but he's the least active poster in the game. That's troubling, honestly, but not unduly so. He was apparently pushed by the vote switcher, but that could just as easily be WIFOM as evidence for Breezy's cleanliness. He encourages a fully-utilized Day phase, and I think he could've gotten away with doing nothing or advocating for the hammer. He drops the ball at one point, but picks it back up and proffers a rather easy list of potential scum.

His posting is consistent with lazy scum and lazy town, in my opinion. On the merits and detriments of his own posts, he's a null read to me.

[Bluedoom]

But in short, my case is that your D2 play/reads has not really been consistent with your D1 play. the choice of your vigshot was poor, and I'm finding it hard to believe that we have two vigs with multiple shots

[Terrador]

walls are too much to read so yeah.

As for why would you kill Euklyd? This:

Bold is also a good reason for scum to kill Euklyd- There wasn't any town support to get them lynched, but your other 'scumreads' had support for a lynch.

But in short, my case is that your D2 play/reads has not really been consistent with your D1 play. the choice of your vigshot was poor, and I'm finding it hard to believe that we have two vigs with multiple shots

Hm... not going to lie, the choice of Euk is poor. In hindsight, Sky probably would have been the better kill.

That said--why not somebody else even less likely to be lynched? Being real here--as scum, I would absolutely be focusing on big-name targets. People I know or know of, who would be doing smart Town play and would be likelier (in my primarily Smogon) experience to have a power role.

As for my D2 play being inconsistent with my D1 play--do you mean not really doing anything about Junko (and even more so with SP) today? Well, Shinori was online to actually talk to at the moment, and most of my Day has been consumed by external affairs, laziness, and a self-defense fight. You'll note I have reads up on SP and Junko, so tell me if that still looks shady, out of the context of your current read on me.

I agree that my behavior could be consistent with scum. I'm hoping to convince you otherwise, but I'm not gonna be calling you scum if you don't. That said, I'd hope you'll look at someone else for killing today--and if not because you doubt I'm anti-town, then because, if I'm anti-town, I'm almost certainly third-party (and therefore on the mafia chopping block).

[Sky_Paladin]

The promised day has come! The combination of FULL NIGHT SLEEP, NO DISTRACTIONS, AND SOBER. It's a terrible comment on my lifestyle that this happened once in seven days.

Well then, let's get to it.

Junko -> Doc

Kirche -> ???

Bluedoom -> Martyr

Kopfjager - Tracker

Breezy -> ???

Green Poet -> Insomniac Dayvig

Terrador -> Oddnight Vig

Eurykins -> ???

Sky_Paladin -> ???

Game begins.

#58 Bluedoom votes for Refa. We know some of the scums voted for each other in RVS.

#60 FFM votes Kopfjager. We know some of the scums voted for each other in RVS.

#72 Junko votes Kopfjager for their vote on Refa. Could be newb!scum countervote. Bizarre because Junko was actually voting Kopfjager before then. This post also picked up by Mitsuki later on, possible reason for her being hit night 1.

#84 Bluedoom "Everyone so far is town" blanket clear on a lot of players who happened to be scum. Empty content post motivation to play down importance of RVS interactions. Scummy.

#87/88 Refa and Bluedoom simultaneously unvote.

#96 Kopfjager countervote FFM. We know some of the scums voted for each other in RVS.

#177 Kopfjager, "It also does not help that most of the votes so far are joke votes" immediately before vote switches.

#189 FFM's list is Terrodar, Mitsuki, and Shinori. 2/3 died town.

#296 Sakura speculating on vote switches. I think this is her first game-related post so far.

#306 Eurykins townclears Refa, otherwise good-looking post.

#366 Junko fakenewbslip, "Still I do not think we should worry about Refa yet. We can just rolecop him" showing knowledge of night actions yet seems to be oblivious on day 2 about trackers.

#381 Refa calls out SakuraBreeze as 'coasting scum'.

#453 Junko accidentally crumbing Doctor. Probably town cleared here, but then #457 speculation is kinda...accurate.

#480 Refa now votes for Breeze.

#502 Terrador encouraging a Skyhammer with over 50 hours of day phase left after arguing to Kopf that they should hammer. Bluedoom also encourages it. Terrador will then warn Junko at #545 that encouraging quickhammers is scummy. Is that so?

#559 Bluedoom actually lining up lynches in a post where he accuses Terrador of lining up lynches.

#561 Bluedoom rehashes some things Terrador says, later called on it by Terrador in #571.

#626 Shinori case and vote for Kopfjager, probably indicative of who he copped night 1.

#638 Eurykins entertaining the possibility of NOT lynching Refa day 1, suggests Kopfjager instead.

//End day 1.

Night kill analysis:

Mitsuki was likely a tactical kill to partly implicate Shinori (Mitsuki had made a good case on Shinori) and also to remove the double vote power. I thought that Green Poet, Mitsuki and SB would have been the main night 1 targets; GP and Mitsuki because they appear to have the coolest, most logical heads, and SB because he was confirmed town after feeding us a Refa.

There is a chance SB died by targeting a non-recruitable, greatly increased to 'almost certainly' because the mod felt necessary to retroactively amend it in to the death narrative. Therefore, I think SB probably checked somebody from outside his scum list, which was Junko, Kopf, Sky, and Green Poet. That means Kirche, Bluedoom, SakuraBreeze, Terrador, or Eurykins (unless I got a name wrong from somewhere). GP reread SB already in #724 and got "Eury, Mistuki, myself, and Terrador are likely townies", so there's a very strong chance SB targeted either Eury or Terrador and subsequently died because they were scum.

I thought Euklyd was scummy. If I had a vig I probably would have shot too. It's the only reason I think that Terrador's story is plausible. Which, if all is true, means Eury is scum.

#727 Kirche; reminder for me to recheck this post re:Junko

#736 Kirche raises some very valid points re Shinori/Kopf.

#751 Kopf claims and accuses Terrador. Start of Junko's implausibly bad defence of Terrador.

#757 GP confirms Kopf claims (how?), GP is conf!town so can confirm Kopf is town if GP's method is sound.

#762 Terrador confirms kill and claims.

#775 Junko claims she researched roles which kind of conflicts with her behaviour.

#800 Bluedoom's first notable post of the game is to put a vote in on the guy who just claimed town vig.

#802 Bluedoom claims action on night 1 "Didnt work as expected" perhaps due to priority issues.

#829 Bluedoom keeps on asking for dayvig to out themselves.

#895 Bluedoom has a few votes on him and finally acts by voting for Sky for no reason given other than "Not these players, so therefore..." despite stating Terrador is his main scumpick.

Let's reflect on the kills if SB died from targeting a scum.

That means 1 mafia night kill, 1 vigilante hit, 1 SB explode. Is it reasonable?

How about 2 mafia night kills and an SB explode?

***

Ok I made it to the end.

Oh my gosh, it's been four hours. I've wasted my day and life.

***

On the balance of things, Breeze and Bluedoom are practically non-existent. Blue only showed up really when people started voting for him, and his handling of that has been awful. But now there's a claim that popped up just as I got to this and haven't processed it yet.

I think we do have a scum in between Eury and Terrador; Terrador's explanation is plausible to me. Therefore:

##vote Terrador

My scumpicks are Terrador == Eury > Bluedoom > Breezy.

The rest of you look town to me.

[Sky_Paladin]

Four hours of effort only to screw it up at the last second.

##unvote

##vote Eury

[Terrador]

Green Poet:

Given the absence of a counterclaim, I believe that she's dayvig. From a setup speculation point of view, my gut says that she's lying about the number of shots she has and/or is a third party that favors S.E.E.S over Nyx, but frankly, between the low probability that I can accurately speculate on setup and the fact that it wouldn't mean shit if she was lying a bit to make a clean, shady-looking role look cleaner... yeah. I couldn't honestly care less if she was lying a bit.

I do 100% believe she's town-allied, though. She's claimed two clearly Town-directed kills, even if one didn't pan out. Nobody's stepped forward, and I'm preeeeeeetty sure that everyone has seen it happen. Green Poet is cleared in my book, and is part of the reason that I think Wen is clean, too.

[Terrador]

@Sky_Paladin: Why would you think that SB targeted myself or Eurykins, in particular? It seems to be a substantial chunk of the reason that you're on Eurykins. Is it because you think he'd agree (for the most part) with Mitsuki's list of who looked town as of Day 1?

[Sky_Paladin]

In the *spoilers* section;

"GP reread SB already in #724 and got "Eury, Mistuki, myself, and Terrador are likely townies", so there's a very strong chance SB targeted either Eury or Terrador and subsequently died because they were scum.

I thought Euklyd was scummy. If I had a vig I probably would have shot too. It's the only reason I think that Terrador's story is plausible. Which, if all is true, means Eury is scum."

Seeing interactions of Buedoom/Refa actually look pretty telling, having gone back and re-read the list. Gonna shuffle my picks around.

(Eury OR Terrador) > Bluedoom >>> Breezy.

[Wen Yang]

Sky_Paladin, keep in mind that SB at the time seems to single me/Junko/GP/you out because he thinks one of us might be the vote reshuffler. It doesn't exactly close the possibility that he visited someone outside of the Mitsuki/Terrador/Eury group. If he dies from his ability hitting wrong target, we know it's not mitsuki, so I'd not narrow it down to just Eury and Terra, but also include the others as well.

Atm my own Lynch priority is probably Bluedoom > Eury > Kirsche.

[Terrador]

OH HEY I HAVEN'T DONE SKY YET

EVEN THOUGH I SAID I DID

I'M A SMART PERSON

SKY'S AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST, AND I'M GETTING TO HIM, I PROMISE

Eurykins:

She's been really obviously looking for scum all game, making lots of posts constructing and deconstructing cases, as is appropriate. I can't even try to link particular posts... just... no. I can't. It's too much good stuff. She's posting wall after wall after wall, and I've yet to find anything I object to.

Eury isn't cleared in my book, but I've been given absolutely zero reason to suspect that she's anti-town. WAY too public for someone with any reason to hide.

Sky_Paladin:

Okay, now to get into the good shit. We all know about the tunnel on SB; it wouldn't be that scummy in my book, except he misrepresented SB's play something awful. He prods Junko earlier, yet has him nowhere on his priority list once things get serious. Junko did verbally support a Sky quickhammer, but didn't actually drop the hammer. Scum covering for scum? Probably not, but Sky's reading still looks inconsistent. Further, he very early pegs Euklyd as a reasonable (if not optimal) vig target, but I'm still fairly high on his priority list. Why?

Sky looks pretty scummy to me right now, but I'm not confident enough to push a lynch just yet.

----

@Wen: Could you explain to me more in-depth why you feel Eury and Kirsche are scummy? I genuinely don't see the case there.

[Green Poet]

Blue's claim feels sort of unprompted to me. I wasn't really buying the cases on him up till that point, but it seems sort of extraneous to claim at that time. He seemed to imply that we were in massclaim too, which we aren't.

Null read on him for now; still trying to find a particularly good Marth case in people's ISOs that I actually do agree with.

Most of my reads are on page 46. Essentially, I'm voting Breezy because his lurking, generally content-less posts and questionably logical attempts at piecing together scumspects feels very scummy to me.

Also, I maintain that at least one person between Eury and Terra are likely scum.

I'd not narrow it down to just Eury and Terra, but also include the others as well.

I ruled out those other three because they weren't nearly as active nor towny-looking D1 as Eury or Terra. Those two had posted walls and had been openly considered townreads by most. When you're looking for a prospective mason target, you want someone whom you're certain is going to make the most of your OC.

[Sky_Paladin]

except he misrepresented SB's play something awful.

I thought SB was lying. And he was. That is not a misrep.

Re: Junko - I ditched Junko as a serious scum pick around the middle of day 1 when she had pages and pages of just nonsense. It would have been so easy to make a case on a newbie, and that is why we leave players like Junko around - we hope to catch scum snacking on babies. I can't seriously entertain any claim on Junko that doesn't start with a smoking gun of some sort. She's not in my priority list because I don't think there's any reasonable chance of her being scum.

Re: Euklyd as a vig target - because I thought he was very scummy yesterday, and if I had a vig shot and nothing better to do, I would have shot him also. Don't confuse Euklyd with Eury.

You're high on my priority list because:

1 - Scum interactions are favourable.

2 - You didn't claim your shot before being called on it, and I believe you wouldn't have ever claimed it on day 2 without being tracked, leaving us without some critical information.

3 - I buy Green Poet's analysis that SB likely checked you or Eury.

4 - I think it's unlikely town has this many vigshots.

I'm discounting the possibility that you are scum purely because I think scum would have preferred to shoot Green Poet over Euklyd.

[Wen Yang]

in Eury's case, this is mostly based off a previous game mind you. I find that she's playing similar to how she did in that game... and she was maf in that game.

On Kirsche's end, I find his going for GP (and still going at GP even now) suspicious. Mind you, not quite enough to lynch yet, hence why he's at the end of my list.