charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Do you think GP would think of that though? And if not, who would be her buddies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I believe GP to be good enough to think through a basic set of numbers with lylo coming up, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Okay, what's the point in claiming doctor rather than just hiding in VTs then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 FFM needs to weigh in btw. I don't like how he just dropped his claim and vanished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randa Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Okay, what's the point in claiming doctor rather than just hiding in VTs then? So the actual doc looks like scum trying to CC if they claim. And in a LYLO situation that can be the deciding factor for the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randa Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 BEFORE I DO THOUGH: kirsche why do you think GP would bother claiming doc for the sake of a 1v1 rather than a watcher guilty considering they'd know they wouldn't be cced on role? Well the way I see it, it would be safer if the plan fails. If people don't believe in the false guilty then there is a clear town with two protective roles left in the game. However if the doc plan were to fail scum still knows the doc and they might still have a hook to deal with the martyr so no protective roles left, no unnecessary cleared townies. Least that's what I think is most likely. I don't have access to scum chat, be it skype or qt so I can't be sure. Do you think GP would think of that though? And if not, who would be her buddies?I also believe that the Kirsche implied I was scum in his post about GP which would indicate somebody who has given a good amount of thought to numbers would be able to help with planning. Obviously he's wrong but that's a possibility from his PoV.All in all I think Kirsche has played and I wouldn't lynch him just because he claimed second. Which seems to be what you're doing SB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrostyFireMage Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 forgot to mention: I tried to reclass into doc and follower and failed both times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randa Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Also, continuing with the numbers game here, unless both GP and Kirsche are scum then we have a better chance of hitting the two scum members hiding in the VT group. Obviously to me I'm clear so I'm inclined to believe a GP, Ace, FFM scum team. But stair statistically speaking we are 16% more likely to find scum in the VT even if we just rand lynch. Obviously not saying,we should ignore the doc situation, but we must consider what happens after we lynch the liar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 FFM who is scum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Also him claiming second isn't really what bugs me here. I guess I'll type it up in a second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I don't like this 1v1 because it just has weird written all over it. I get that scum have to fake something, but wouldn't it make more sense to hide in the VTs rather than taking the doctor CC? This 1v1 looks like it really favors scum!kirsche and it's been initiated totally on his own terms, especially with most of the game townreading him. The nightkills are another thing - they've been really weird in general, but if you consider scum!kirsche (who has been solidly townread all game but still not touched at all) it sort of makes more sense? You can't even argue for doc or watcher dodging since the former was out of play and the latter is very obviously scum. This is before rereading and stuff, but yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randa Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I don't like this 1v1 because it just has weird written all over it. I get that scum have to fake something, but wouldn't it make more sense to hide in the VTs rather than taking the doctor CC? This 1v1 looks like it really favors scum!kirsche and it's been initiated totally on his own terms, especially with most of the game townreading him.So if it was initiated by GP you would have the same problems. Can you just phrase it in stupid people terms cause I just can't get this part. I know I'm running all the numbers on possibilities and what not and I can't figure this out[/strke] The nightkills are another thing - they've been really weird in general, but if you consider scum!kirsche (who has been solidly townread all game but still not touched at all) it sort of makes more sense? You can't even argue for doc or watcher dodging since the former was out of play and the latter is very obviously scum. They might have randomized the kills, they might've been trying to set me up night 1 and night 2, Kirsche might've been completely wrong on his reads and hav led us to mislynches. I really don't know. It is a valid point though. Why Kirsche survived could have multiple explanations. I'm inclined to believe they tried to set me up as a late game lynch, but that might just be me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 CCing the doc and getting into a guaranteed 1v1 with them is a weird play to make when you could just sit in the vanilla claims and have way more room to hide, especially when you're not even sure who you'd be CCing if you didn't get lucky with a watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrostyFireMage Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 FFM who is scum GP and kirsche are the only ones who ping me as suspicious right now. Something about GP's statement that "anyone hammering before claim should be treated as scum" seems off especially after voting for the largest wagon. Kirsche has been pretty much flying under the radar since the beginning of the game and has been a major influence in this game recently which is sus since we're in LYLO or whatever now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I was surprised to see the claim too, I never thought I'd see a doc cc, but thinking about it it wasn't a bad gamble from GP's PoV. Best case scenario Ace ccs and she can probably call out on some poor doc choices, worst case scenario is I cc and she can play the newbie card, which is what you're doing for her by implying she wasn't bright enough to analyse a simple lylo situation. As for why she didn't just try to blend in with the vanilla townies, it's lylo so making a risky play is validated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 FFM you can't be serious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 GP isn't a newbie though. And the "simple LYLO situation" was more like deciding on whether to CC or not, deciding not to claim watcher because it would be probably scum etc which I wasn't sure she would think of, but I'm pretty sure you would've. FFM which is scummier pls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randa Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Whichever one was scum knew for a fact they would be in a 1v1. If it is GP she would know two people she could not be facing in this situation and doesn't know if she can win. If it is Kirsche he knows who he is facing, and knows he can probably win. Is that the train of thought? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 @FFM: You do realise this is a 1v1 between me and GP right? Pick one. Pedit: No, but to me or you she's far less experienced and she can play to that. Heck you're letting her play to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrostyFireMage Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 first of all what does CC mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Poet Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 If I was scum: 1. I wouldn't be the first person to case and place a vote on Kinumi D2. I would have at least waited to see if it was necessary or viable if I was going to bus. 2. The real doc crossclass would've CC'ed me, since it's LYLO. Outing a town PR > losing the game. Looking over the rest of the pages I've missed now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie_ Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 It's not about experience, this situation just feels really weird and I feel like it'd make more sense from scum!kirsche than scum!GP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrostyFireMage Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 If I was scum: 1. I wouldn't be the first person to case and place a vote on Kinumi D2. I would have at least waited to see if it was necessary or viable if I was going to bus. 2. The real doc crossclass would've CC'ed me, since it's LYLO. Outing a town PR > losing the game. Looking over the rest of the pages I've missed now. Your vote on Kinumi could have easily been made to give yourself townie points. For some reason I don't like that self-meta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 first of all what does CC mean? Counter claim. I cc'd doc means that I'm calling them a liar while claiming to be the real doctor. GP's recent defence is really scripted if you ask me. Her best defences for a counterclaim were her Kinumi bus and the idea that she wouldn't want to cc someone and lo and behold that's what she's said (at least that's what I think she's said, I don't really understand point 2 considering I did CC her?). Regardless I'll repeat what I said about her Kinumi case being a distancing attempt gone wrong and the newbie card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zkirsche Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Tbh SB I can see what you're saying but this situation makes sense for both of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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