Ensemble Mafia - N5

[Kriemhild]

Role/Claims List for easy inspection and to help Trump/DaBear catch up if they need to.

[spoiler=Roles/Claims So Far]Flips so far

Green Poet - Flipped D1, Mucracker: Privately kills a target if hammer is not reached. Actions: Unused

Kirsche - Flipped N2, Doctor: Protects target from death. Actions: Unknown

Hober Mallow - Flipped D3, Redirector: Picks two targets, A and B, and causes A's target to change to B. Actions: Unknown

Blitzy - Flipped N3, Insomniac Inventor: Can either invent an item while staying up at night (and oversleeping the next day), or give an invented item to someone. Actions: Unknown, but N1 and N3 was spent on inventing (so N2 likely involved gifting)

Ryker - Flipped D4, Omniguard: 1-shot protect + safeguard on target, i.e., negate all other actions on target. Actions: Unused. Was told at either N3/D4 that role would be disabled for N4.

Claims so far

Elemina - Claimed D1, Numbers: 3 Mafia, 10 Town. Actions: None

Yedi - Claimed D4, Investigative Jack?: Has multiple investigative abilities. Actions: N1 Idle, N2 track YOLO - no visits, N3 investigate Ryker - Guilty.

Irony - Claimed D4, Roleblocker: X shots of roleblocking a target, where X is initially 0 and increments whenever scum is lynched. Actions: Unused, but informed at either N2/D3 that role would be disabled for N3.

Spinal/DaBear - Claimed D5, Odd-Night Watcher: Learns who else visited the same target. Actions: N1 ProtoRainbow - no visits, N3 Idle, was told at either N4/D5 that role would be disabled for N5.

SB/Trump - Claimed D5, ???: Votes at L-2 will hammer

Unclaimed: ProtoRainbow, Refa/Elieson, YOLO

Note: Yedi was the leading wagon at D4 when he claimed, which caused the votes to shift to Ryker, whose flip was contradictory to Yedi's supposed result.

Most of the other stuff in the thread are subjective thoughts and analyses, which I cannot present in an unbiased manner. I personally don't consider them to be too important at this stage anyway.

---

I suppose YOLO is avoiding claiming at this point, so should I claim before him...?

[Kriemhild]

Trump, are there any restrictions stated in your role PM that you are withholding from us?

[Irony]

If YOLO doesn't claim, I guess that a) makes him look uber suspicious and b) I guess you and Refa should claim first?

[Irony]

Or Elieson. Sorry.

[Kriemhild]

Welp, I gotta go buy groceries so I might as well claim now.

My Claim

Character: Kasumi, Ensemble White

Role: Amnesiac

Ability: Once during the game at night, I can pick a dead player and permanently obtain their abilities.

Actions:

- N1: Idled (Green Poet's role didn't seem useful enough)

- N2: Idled (no new corpses after Green Poet)

- N3: Inherited Kirsche's role, so I became a Doctor permanently

- N4: Protected Irony because she's so adorable and I wanted to protect her

My role is also part of why I believed Yedi over Ryker in D3; with the Amnesiac possibly adding one to the count of roles in a particular existing category, it made more sense to have (1 investigative + 1 protective) than (0 investigative + 2 protective). Evidently it was, indeed, possible to have a third protective role, which is what I am now, though Town just might have an investigative role after all in Spinal/Bear.

I'm also fairly sure that my role is the reason for No-Deaths on N4. With how Irony's role works, and the fact that we have to lynch Mafia every day from now on to stand a chance at winning, it should be apparent that Irony would be a great threat to the Mafia. She'd start getting roleblock abilities, which could potentially block a kill AND expose the killer if she picks the right target. But I couldn't let them shoot the adorable Irony on my watch and so, here we are with no deaths in N4.

As for my thoughts on the recent claims here, Bear's one seems pretty believable, since Town doesn't seem to have an investigative role otherwise, and the advance notification of being roleblocked seems consistent with Irony's and Ryker's reports of being roleblocked N3 and N4 respectively, which suggests that there is a Delayed Roleblocker of sorts in the Mafia. This doesn't clear him though, since I could see the Mafia deliberately not roleblocking anyone to grant a believable claim for Spinal/Bear, and it's quite troubling that his roleclaim implies that his ability is useless for the rest of the game (next use is at N7, and the game should end by the end of D7), so idk.

SB/Trump's claim, on the other hand, is pretty dangerous. Thankfully, it's easily provable, but would the proof really be indicative of alignment? It would be insane if the Mafia had the ability to trigger a hammer at less than the required threshold, which could really break the endgame. But by process of elimination, I do think SB/Trump is most likely to be the third scum alongside Yedi and YOLO. But yeah, I'm really not sure about SB/Trump, but I definitely want to see him prove his role by lynching Yedi today (not NOW, but later today).

[Kriemhild]

btw Irony is definitely Town and I will defend her against any fiend that dares to doubt her integrity

[Elemina]

I actually didn't want your claim but rather your reads. Anyway I think scum are [Yedi, Da Bear, Yolo]

[Da Bear]

I believe I can act N6, I'm not the odd night watcher, just the alt. night watcher.

[Da Bear]

Also I have to assume that gorf's role is turned off in *ylo variants? He's basically guaranteed town if he can prove that his role works in *ylo because on scum that would let them hammer without town support in lylo and with only one town misvote in mylo.

[Elemina]

Yedi for obvious reasons.

Spinal never had will to scumhunt and lurked out when he could save Ryker. I also am skeptical of the watcher claim.

Yolo is not being as aggressive as scum as I would expect, but I can see he is playing differently due to meta differences. He can die tomorrow.

[Kriemhild]

I actually didn't want your claim but rather your reads. Anyway I think scum are [Yedi, Da Bear, Yolo]

Well, we agree on Yedi and YOLO, and I'm honestly unsure of the third scum. I also haven't completely ruled out you or Refason, but Bear/Trump are more likely to be scum instead imo. I feel worse about Trump for now, but if he can prove his role I may change my mind.

I believe I can act N6, I'm not the odd night watcher, just the alt. night watcher.

So if I'm understanding this right, the restriction is only that you can't watch on consecutive nights? And so, being disabled on N5 will allow you to watch on N6...?

[Da Bear]

That is correct.

[Elieson]

At this point we may as well just figure out what we want to do about YOLO. I personally think he should be AXE'D, but if people don't agree, that's their perogative.

Subbing in for Refa, I'm:

Ensemble Green, Jonie. I'm a mechanic who really knows my stuff, but that part doesn't matter. What does matter is that I'm a combination Courier & PR Giver. SUPPOSEDLY you can be Modkilled for violating your given PR, but well yea ask Ryker about that postgame.

N1: Elemina can attest to my role being what it is because Refa targetted him on N1, with a message "Stop spamming the thread" and the obvious PR that you all saw him posting. He never said it had to be blue but I assume that's Elemina's lemon twist on the PR.

N2: I hit up Ryker with a PR to not be such a jerk and to post a compliment about a random user in each post he made, but he decided that he was above following the rules and decided not to follow it in thread (refer back to his post about Kindness).

After that, I really lost interest in using my role since I didn't realize that my PR was kinda optional, and I have no real need to send 1 message per night to any given player as there's like nothing that I should say in private that I could just say in public.

[Elemina]

I think your reasoning on me is silly in conparison with Elie. You went for mechanical play over reads. Anyway you are my strongest town read but I feel you are going in the wrong path. Why SB but not soinal? SB was at least present.

[Kriemhild]

Also I have to assume that gorf's role is turned off in *ylo variants? He's basically guaranteed town if he can prove that his role works in *ylo because on scum that would let them hammer without town support in lylo and with only one town misvote in mylo.

That's why I asked Trump if there were any restrictions on the role, but you already spoiled a convincing answer for him. Anyhow, if that's the case, then he wouldn't be able to prove his role either and his claim would be just like an unknown black box.

Yedi for obvious reasons.

Spinal never had will to scumhunt and lurked out when he could save Ryker. I also am skeptical of the watcher claim.

Yolo is not being as aggressive as scum as I would expect, but I can see he is playing differently due to meta differences. He can die tomorrow.

Agreed on lynching Yedi today and YOLO tomorrow. By then, we may hopefully have more info for the final lynch.

[Elemina]

Lmao I thought SB did that actually and it did not occur to me to ask.

I implore you all to reconsider Spinal.

[Kriemhild]

That is correct.

Hmmm, in that case, couldn't you have watched on N4 when you subbed in? Since Spinal idled on N3...

<claim>

Yeah, I'm buying it. Would be nice if you proved your Courier ability though.

I think your reasoning on me is silly in conparison with Elie. You went for mechanical play over reads. Anyway you are my strongest town read but I feel you are going in the wrong path. Why SB but not soinal? SB was at least present.

Yes, I go for mechanical play since they're based on objective data analysis, as opposed to subjective fluff. It's just a personal preference of mine (and also because I'm terrible at subjective reads). My stance rests, but we don't have to worry about SB/Trump vs Spinal/Bear for a little while, at least.

[Elemina]

No, I do. I want you specifically to talk about SB over Spinal.

[Elieson]

I can send whoever wants a message tonight, a message tonight, but I can't send a message w/o a Post Restriction. @Proto

Also again ask Elemina, Refa did it already and Elemina can confirm

[Kriemhild]

Oops, my bad, Bear subbed in at D5, not N4; that was Trump. Nevermind.

Yes, I go for mechanical play since they're based on objective data analysis, as opposed to subjective fluff.

(just to clarify, I mean analysis of objective data; the analysis itself is not objective)

[Elemina]

Don't let your stance rest, please. Talk to me. If Yolo is auto lynch then we should think if third scum.

[Elemina]

Yes, Refa sent that. Now that is confirmed, I resent that comment from Refa. It is true and seemed townie though.

[Kriemhild]

Don't let your stance rest, please. Talk to me. If Yolo is auto lynch then we should think if third scum.

It rests, for now. I want Trump to verify his role and that could have a strong influence on my opinions on him. Yedi's and YOLO's flips, and N5/N6 results may all have stuff that may change my mind. Or yours. At this point, I feel like Bear's claim sounds very believable, moreso than Trump.

[Kriemhild]

Also, really gotta go get groceries, bai

[Elemina]

We just had scum lie as investigative. I see your point on waiting for gorf though. Yet Spinal should not be cleared by role. You were wrong already with Yedi. I trust you being town but not your accuracy. I think there is no investigative and watcher is an easy claim to make as scum.