Ensemble Mafia - N5

[Da Bear]

Irony has been vanilla all game according to her claim.

Da bear, thoughts in Irony/Yolo pair?

I guess it could happen? Still not huge on scum yolo but I could see them being buddies and just doing their best to avoid any association I guess. I doubt this duo is possible however because I don't see them running the NK gambit and rainbow protecting irony would not save a kill.

[Elemina]

Also I think that is a stretch but don't expect you to be questioning as a newbie.

[Da Bear]

I think it's almost certain the scumteam pulled it if either rainbow or irony is scum because the amnesidoc is the only other excuse for a NK last night. NK last night also makes some amount of sense because it was looking like pulling a ML on yolo would be incredibly easy (still does).

If yolo is scum he's not scum with irony/rainbow because he wouldn't have pulled the NK gambit when he was the most likely lynch after yedi.

[Elemina]

If Yolo is scum, who are his possible buddies?

[Da Bear]

If Yolo is scum, who are his possible buddies?

Either Elie or SB/DT. Would need to read more into this.

[Irony]

Who did you target Irony? (Each night) Everyone should claim targets at this point.

N1: Idle

N2: Attempted to Block Ryker. Wasn't allowed to do so.

N3: Restricted. Couldn't block.

N4: Still had 0 shots, so couldn't block. Idle again?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

alright everyone. ive read over the entire game to try and get myself back into it. the following are my own observations and several cases along with my claim. lets get this done and work together team

[spoiler=detailed analysis + claim]SIKE!!

why would i claim and help the scumteam put the pieces together even better? enough of this nonsense. lets lynch yedi and call it a day. we have enough power roles in play that we should be able to figure out the scum off of night actions moving forward

[Da Bear]

yolo tf

[Da Bear]

like come on the rest of town has determined that we're claiming and there's been a decent amount of discussion. You've got to give us something.

[Da Bear]

@yolo I see no reason why you shouldn't claim, A NK on you is a positive because it means you can't be ML'd compared to a NK on me/elem/elie who would likely be harder to ML.

Irony keeps on bringing up the fact that she tried to act on N2 and couldn't even though it's been clarified at this point that she didn't have shots. Feels kind of like an appeal to the "she's noob!town" argument.

[Kriemhild]

Scum fake claiming means they are confident there might not be investigatives or just fishing for a 1v1.

Whether scum knows it or not, the possibility of no-investigatives sounds very unlikely to me.

Also Spinal just never posted. He has the most chance of being third scum. Plus SB played and did make sense at times. His push on you was wrong though.

Inactivity is not necessarily indicative of scum. Making sense is not necessarily indicative of town. Neither Spinal nor SB did too much, from my observations.

Spinal: All early-game long, this guy was super involved and active and didn't act like he was trying to hide anything. I didn't feel any scum intent from anything he posted, despite Ryker feeling like he did. Got us out of RVS. Townread.

Da SBear: SB didn't do much other than coast and Bear's putting in a lot of effort to catch up with hindsight. Also the only claimed investigative role, that fits within the quirky setup of the game, that hasn't flipped, and I'm 99% sure that this game needs some kind of investigation in order to be qualified as balanced

...SB was subbed by Gorf/Trump. Da Bear subbed in for Spinal. I think you, uh, kinda mixed them up.

Here is my plan:

Lynch Yedi.

Irony block one of [Yolo/Spinal]

Rainbow uses his best judgement on who to save.

Next Day

Lynch Yolo

Irony Block Spinal

Rainbow uses best judgement

Let Irony use her best judgment on who to save. She may be inexperienced, but she's not an idiot. And SB/Trump should also be considered for roleblock targets.

Also, Da Bear said he would be able to watch on N6. Why are you so insistent on roleblocking on the only night that he can be useful?

Rainbow even makes a goid argument for it. 2 protectives with no investigative makes sense. Either way watcher that cannot prove anything, is null. We should learn from the Ryker lynch.

I... didn't make any arguments supporting 0 investigative. 2 protectives with no investigative makes no sense to me. Also, the Watcher said he can act on N6.

Where's the 2nd protective? Amnesiac claim isn't anything; All it means is that if it's town, then two protectors can't coexist.

She's referring to Ryker's one-shot Omniguard, which imo is nowhere near potent enough to compensate for the absence of Town investigation.

First off, the WHOLE TOWN (bar YOLO, who seems to have fallen off the face of the earth.) had decided to role claim. There was literally no benefit to you hiding your role. Why would you outright refuse to role claim? Yes, I know you did role claim later, but why did you need to comment that first? No matter what your alligence is, that should make you look automatically suspicious, especially because you just subbed into the game.

Ah, right, I forgot to mention this earlier, but this also bothered me as well. It could have been scum trying to stall for time while trying to decide whether they should roleclaim their true role or fake a more Townish one. His quick decision to roleclaim would suggest he went with the former, in that case.

If he can double vote he probably doesn't have a role you need to block.

...what? If he's scum, he can nightkill. If he's town, well, we don't want townies to be roleblocked! Why are you making it sound like having a passive role makes him a worse target to block...?

Also if hes scum with dv that's op. Unless he would counter Green Poet but that's mod meta and can burn us.

Scum with Auto-Hammer is not OP if it's disabled in *YLO, which might be the case.

Irony if you are town I want you to trust me. It is probably Spinal. Also, Gorf would say that regardless of alignment, he can be a rebel. Also I feel he would be more appeasing as scum.

...why are you pressuring her into siding with you. Please let her make her own opinions even if they disagree with yours. Stop. Pressuring. Irony.

Rainbow is very likely Ensemble but likely wrong too. I want you to keep that in mind.

Again, stop trying to pressure her into agreeing with you. I told you this before, but if you want people to agree with you, you should use logic, not emotion.

On investigatives, a watcher is too powerful. Better there be a tracker or joat.

> Town Watcher too powerful

lolwut? Town Watcher is generally only useful when the Watcher makes a good guess at who the Mafia targets, and even then they could get multiple results (due to multiple people visiting) and won't even know much about what happened unless the target got killed/claimed to be blocked/etc.

Tracker can tail people who seem to be scummy, catch them during malicious actions, verify claims (e.g. claimed passive visiting someone), etc. I would argue that Tracker is a better Town role than Watcher, but even if you contest that, I don't see how Watcher is "OP". Especially if they can't act on consecutive nights.

Mafia was confident in claiming that so they might have information that there is no investigative. Keep this in mind.

Mafia could not have acquired this info so early. Even Ryker pointed out that there had to be one person whose role they were clueless about when Yedi claimed (and that's assuming they never scoped GreenPoet/Kirsche/Blitzy/HM/Irony). They could NOT have known that there were no investigative roles, but still took the chance to claim.

My alternative explanation is that they investigated Spinal at some point and figured out he is a Watcher. With Spinal being inactive, the Mafia took the chance to set up Yedi to claim an investigative role. And even if Spinal DID show up, they made sure that Yedi's claimed ability set did not include Watcher, allowing for players to plausibly consider that there might be two investigative roles.

Even so, Da bear cannot prove he is watcher. Gorf can prove his role.

This does not mean that Gorf is Town, however, nor does it indicate that Da Bear is scum.

Who did you target Irony? (Each night) Everyone should claim targets at this point.

...everyone did. Including Irony, if you were following the thread.

alright everyone. ive read over the entire game to try and get myself back into it. the following are my own observations and several cases along with my claim. lets get this done and work together team

[spoiler=detailed analysis + claim]SIKE!!

why would i claim and help the scumteam put the pieces together even better? enough of this nonsense. lets lynch yedi and call it a day. we have enough power roles in play that we should be able to figure out the scum off of night actions moving forward

fyi prior to this point I did consider the slight possibility that you're Town. Thank you for your pseudo-confession of being undoubtably scum.

I have more stuff to say regarding SB/Trump vs SpinalBear, but I'm super hungry atm and must feed before posting more.

[Kriemhild]

Alright, Elemina, you want me to analyze subjective fluff to decide between SB and Spinal? Alright, I'll try. I'm not going to ISO them, but BOTH Spinal and SB were pretty inactive. So let's see if I can recall what stood out for me...

Spinal - His heavy Ryker tunneling in D1. It felt more like Town being convinced that Ryker is scum than for Scum trying to build an easy Ryker case. He went way too far than I'd expect from scum though, adamantly declaring that Ryker is scum even when he changed his vote to Green Poet. Also, his response to Ryker's big wall of text feels Townish too; I'd expect ScumSpinal to reconsider their Ryker case at this point in order to look good.

His vote for Green Poet makes sense as Town being forced to choose between Elemina and Green Poet, the former of which looked more Townish in his eyes. I could see him doing this as scum as well, tbh, so it's not very indicative.

SB - On D1, he was troubled by BOTH Elemina and Green Poet. Although I no longer suspect that he may have been trying to save his scumbuddy, I now suspect that he may have been trying to encourage players into getting into either wagon, due to it being a Town vs Town duel. At the same time, he didn't seem to feel too strongly about either of them, possibly trying to play it safe.

As for his case on me, although it initially seemed like it could be based on genuinely being bothered by stuff, the way he kept pushing me despite all my repeated explanations seemed really weird. Maybe I'm basing it off of meta from a game where I distinctly recall SB behaved similarly (and attacking me) as scum, but I have a hard time seeing his attacks as sincere scumhunting from town.

Elemina, regarding the issues you raised about Spinal vs SB, please ask yourself this question: Could Town!Spinal and Mafia!SB have played the way they did? I would say yes; Spinal lost motivation and was very inactive, while SB was trying to build cases that seemed reasonable in order to try being perceived as Townish.

Yes, I was wrong about Yedi before, but now that we know Yedi is scum, this raises the question of where Town's investigative abilities lie. I've said this before, and it was a big part of my argument supporting Yedi too, that Town is unlikely to have 0 investigative roles. Aside from raising the question of why Mechanics Rule #9 is a thing (whereas even Rule #10 was changed from AM/PM Mafia), it sounds incredibly scum-sided for the clueless uninformed Town to lack any investigative roles against the powerful alignment-informed Mafia.

Da Bear's D5 behavior also seems like active attempts at scumhunting, even if I don't agree with him (e.g. me and Irony being scumbuddies). Meanwhile Trump argued against having to claim, despite my clear big post about why he needs to claim ASAP, which feels like a scum reaction to being demanded for a claim without having a convincing fakeclaim ready. And after his claim, he... said nothing. He just disappeared and hasn't shown up since then.

I really don't understand why you're so adamant about SB/Trump being Town. I've said this before, but you have a tendency to try bringing up every argument you could think of against a player that you decide to attack, which feels like what you're doing with Spinal/DaBear now. Stop giving in to this tunneling mindset and try to rationally consider the possibilities with suppressed biases.

Irony, no matter what anyone else tells you, the final judgment of who to roleblock is up to you. Your objective should be to try to block the Mafia from performing their nightkill. Don't reveal who you target either, since the Mafia may adjust their plans on who delivers the nightkill accordingly. It is also for this reason that I am personally refraining from giving you recommendations on who to block, because scum would listen in and try to guess your targets.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

sigh

I AM A 1 SHOT VIG. I WILL SHOOT SOMEONE TONIGHT AND PROVE IT

[Da Bear]

*large text*

Pls don't

Or at least if you do let town help you decide your shot. If you miss it's game over.

[Da Bear]

Honestly I'm not even sure I buy that claim you literally said earlier this game that if a vig exists they should shoot rainbow and rainbow and rainbow is still alive and kicking.

[Irony]

Also, another observation:

1) It's likely that the Mafia have a delayed Roleblocker on their team.

2) Da Bear claimed that his role was blocked for tonight.

3) I don't think that the Mafia would Roleblock someone on their team.

Conclusion) Does that mean Da Bear is Town?

alright everyone. ive read over the entire game to try and get myself back into it. the following are my own observations and several cases along with my claim. lets get this done and work together team

[spoiler=detailed analysis + claim]SIKE!!

why would i claim and help the scumteam put the pieces together even better? enough of this nonsense. lets lynch yedi and call it a day. we have enough power roles in play that we should be able to figure out the scum off of night actions moving forward

YOLO, everyone else has already role claimed. There's no benefit in you not role claiming. This is making you look increasingly Mafia-like. What. Is. Your. Role?

[Irony]

sighI AM A 1 SHOT VIG. I WILL SHOOT SOMEONE TONIGHT AND PROVE IT

Or you could just claim your role the minute I ask you to claim it. Though, Da Bear does raise two excellent points:

Pls don't

Or at least if you do let town help you decide your shot. If you miss it's game over.

Yeah, we really don't want a mislynch right now. That would be awful, as the Ensemble would auto-lose.

Honestly I'm not even sure I buy that claim you literally said earlier this game that if a vig exists they should shoot rainbow and rainbow and rainbow is still alive and kicking.

Why didn't you lynch Rainbow, if you were so convinced that Rainbow is Mafia?

[Da Bear]

Alright so we don't actually lose if we lynch yedi and YOLO misshoots (current numbers are 5 town and 3 scum so if he misshoots it becomes 3 town and 2 scum lylo). I'm ok with YOLO shooting because of this but would prefer

We could also NL and have YOLO shoot yedi bc we don't just lose if he's lying (I don't see a scum vig that's still able to act in *ylo passing any sort of balance check). This clears YOLO I'm fairly certain because of what I just said, if we NL the night phase is still in *ylo where as a correct lynch puts us out of *ylo range for the night unless I misunderstand how *ylo works.

[Da Bear]

Actually that's wrong nevermind don't NL.

[Kriemhild]

<1-shot Vig claim>

lol, that was the best you could come up with?

I know Da Bear pointed this out, but I'm going to quote this here:

i think rainbows still our best shot regardless of flip. vig plz

get it? best shot? vig?

.........

good night

cool story bro

Also, another observation:

1) It's likely that the Mafia have a delayed Roleblocker on their team.

2) Da Bear claimed that his role was blocked for tonight.

3) I don't think that the Mafia would Roleblock someone on their team.

Conclusion) Does that mean Da Bear is Town?

Not quite, as I stated earlier:

This doesn't clear him though, since I could see the Mafia deliberately not roleblocking anyone to grant a believable claim for Spinal/Bear

Or rather, it could be that Spinal himself is the Delayed Roleblocker and idled N4 while inactive, so Da Bear decided it would be a great time to pretend as if he himself was the one who was roleblocked (while actually being the Delayed Roleblocker). I still think SB/Trump is scum instead of Da Bear though.

Pretty sure YOLO is lying, btw

[Elemina]

Rainbow it is not subjective fluff! Same as me calling mechanics mechanical fluff. We had data and used it wrong still. I think it is best used together. Yet I am glad you went into it.

I agree with your analysis. Now that I think about it, Yolo called SB townish when there was no reason to. I feel he likes to call his buddied townie to give them a good position.

Gorf isn't doing shit and am starting to feel better about Da bear.

[Elemina]

Not I feel. I know he does because I have been scum with him before.

Yedi Yolo Gorf scum

[Elemina]

To your question: I do believe townpine and mafiasb would play the way they did. My problem was Spines lack of investment D2. If you have seen why he lost that motivation and tell me, I would feel better. I will say SB replaced out when I pressed him to give reads, so negative for SB.

[Da Bear]

Alright so I've thought it over and I think our best bet is actually NL and have yolo shoot yedi. If Yedi doesn't die then we know that yolo is scum (this covers Rainbow's argument that he's lying) and if Yedi does die then YOLO is basically confirmed town for killing in mylo (idk why I said he wasn't).

Only real drawback is irony doesn't get a random chance of RB'ing the mafia NK through this route but idk how big of a deal that is.

[Da Bear]

I think this plan basically confirms YOLO's alignment one way or the other unless some of you guys think 1-shot maf vig that can shoot in *ylo and waited until he was backed into the corner of shooting his buddy is feasible.