The "Who's Going To Be In The Next Banner" Thread

[Cute Chao]

20 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

I wonder if there will ever be a huge story update at all.  They might just do more Xenologues.  Though I'm surprised we didn't get a new Xenologue for the Gauntlet this month, like we did last time.

I was disappointed about that. The Xenologue was possibly my favourite story piece so far. I can't help but love the evil lines Veronica used when contrasted with the tea party she went on to have... I mean... I just loved it. I wanted more >.<

[r4v1sh]

I'm pretty sure there will be a Gaiden banner somewhere this month. If not right on the next banner rotation, at most one week after that, during an event or somesuch.

If I had to bet, I'd bet on the next rotation being another double devotion, fully dedicated to Gaiden, followed by lots of Echoes material/quests/events and free orbs. It's just too much of a marketing opportunity for them to pass it up.

[Duwang]

35 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

I wonder if there will ever be a huge story update at all.  They might just do more Xenologues.  Though I'm surprised we didn't get a new Xenologue for the Gauntlet this month, like we did last time.

I was confused on that as well. Plus I was also in a real need of orbs. Never did get to summon in the Wyvern Riders Focus, heard it has great green unit 5 star probability. 

Which is truly a shame, because I desperately want Julia and Hector. 

[Rezzy]

1 minute ago, Duwang said:

I was confused on that as well. Plus I was also in a real need of orbs. Never did get to summon in the Wyvern Riders Focus, heard it has great green unit 5 star probability. 

Which is truly a shame, because I desperately want Julia and Hector. 

It has a good Green 5* probability since all the Wyverns are Green, but I don't think the odds of getting Julia or Hector are any better than usual.  Those who have run the numbers are free to correct me, though.

 

15 minutes ago, r4v1sh said:

I'm pretty sure there will be a Gaiden banner somewhere this month. If not right on the next banner rotation, at most one week after that, during an event or somesuch.

If I had to bet, I'd bet on the next rotation being another double devotion, fully dedicated to Gaiden, followed by lots of Echoes material/quests/events and free orbs. It's just too much of a marketing opportunity for them to pass it up.

I sure hope so.  It would be nice to have some stuff to tide us over until we can get the actual SoV.

[Duwang]

Just now, Rezzy said:

It has a good Green 5* probability since all the Wyverns are Green, but I don't think the odds of getting Julia or Hector are any better than usual.  Those who have run the numbers are free to correct me, though.

Yeah, the odds of getting individual units unfortunately don't exactly increase. A man can dream, though. Someday.

[Pete-of-the-Forge]

While I suspect the next banner would be Gaiden-focused, I personally would like something more massive than a couple banners if they're going to focus on a game that doesn't have a corresponding World.

I mean, I appreciate the fact that they acknowledge Jugdral exists, but I'd rather have something that gives more of a guarantee that you get a unit from one of those games (or the Tellius ones or Sacred Stones), even if it's fodder, rather than just a couple units at a time.

Edited April 10, 2017 by Pete-of-the-Forge

[Ice Dragon]

8 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

It has a good Green 5* probability since all the Wyverns are Green, but I don't think the odds of getting Julia or Hector are any better than usual.  Those who have run the numbers are free to correct me, though.

Actually, the chances of getting a 5-star character are increased, but the chances of getting Hector or Julia are actually decreased due to the focus characters taking up more space than usual.

Think of it this way:

For simplicity, say we removed every green from the drop pool except for Hector and Julia. Since there are now only 41 5-star units total, the chance of an individual 5-star is 3% / 41 = 0.073%. Since Hector and Julia are the only green characters remaining, the chance of pulling either one if you select a green orb is 0.073% / (2 x 0.073%) = 50%.

Now, let's add Minerva, Cherche, Camilla, and Beruka as focus 5-star characters. The chance of an individual focus character is 3% / 4 = 0.75%. The chances of pulling Hector (or Julia) is now 0.073% / (2 x 0.073% + 4 x 0.75%) = 2.3%.

Obviously with other 5-star characters and the mass of 4-star and 3-star characters to dilute the initial pool, the effect won't be as drastic, but you still get an effect in the same direction.

[Magical Glace]

Since I posted in the duplicate, reiterating that I fully expect Echoes, it's too obvious a plug to just skip.

Edited April 10, 2017 by Glaceon Mage

[Dark Holy Elf]

9 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Actually, the chances of getting a 5-star character are increased, but the chances of getting Hector or Julia are actually decreased due to the focus characters taking up more space than usual.

Think of it this way:

For simplicity, say we removed every green from the drop pool except for Hector and Julia. Since there are now only 41 5-star units total, the chance of an individual 5-star is 3% / 41 = 0.073%. Since Hector and Julia are the only green characters remaining, the chance of pulling either one if you select a green orb is 0.073% / (2 x 0.073%) = 50%.

Now, let's add Minerva, Cherche, Camilla, and Beruka as focus 5-star characters. The chance of an individual focus character is 3% / 4 = 0.75%. The chances of pulling Hector (or Julia) is now 0.073% / (2 x 0.073% + 4 x 0.75%) = 2.3%.

You're right that any given green orb is less likely to be Hector/Julia with the wyverns added, but the odds of getting Hector/Julia is unchanged at 3%/41 = 0.073% in both scenarios. The way this would work in practice is that in the banner with the wyverns added, you'll get a lot more green orbs appearing in the first place. But assuming you draw every green orb that you get, the overall chance of getting Hector/Julia will remain the same.

[Seafarer]

Well... What I'd like is something like this:

"March of the Royals", featuring Caineghis, Tibarn, Naesala, Deghinsea, Skrimir, and Kurthnaga.

Realistically, though? Valentia all the way. Probably Alm, Celica, Mycen, Nomah, and, uh... one of the starting party members from each side?

[Rezzy]

1 hour ago, r4v1sh said:

I'm pretty sure there will be a Gaiden banner somewhere this month. If not right on the next banner rotation, at most one week after that, during an event or somesuch.

If I had to bet, I'd bet on the next rotation being another double devotion, fully dedicated to Gaiden, followed by lots of Echoes material/quests/events and free orbs. It's just too much of a marketing opportunity for them to pass it up.

Yeah, I'd like them to add more units to the 3* Pool, maybe add a dozen more regular Hero Battles to run along side the current ones, and let them get added to the 3* Pool.

Also, maybe instead of just keeping them at 5* and half getting 4* versions after the Banner ends, let some of them be available as 3*.  They did it for Robin, so I don't see why they can't do it with others.

[GinRei]

19 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

You're right that any given green orb is less likely to be Hector/Julia with the wyverns added, but the odds of getting Hector/Julia is unchanged at 3%/41 = 0.073% in both scenarios. The way this would work in practice is that in the banner with the wyverns added, you'll get a lot more green orbs appearing in the first place. But assuming you draw every green orb that you get, the overall chance of getting Hector/Julia will remain the same.

On the other hand, if you're only pulling greens, the chance of getting them is lower because you're more likely to pull a green 5-star, and thus reset the pity percentage.

[Ice Dragon]

21 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

You're right that any given green orb is less likely to be Hector/Julia with the wyverns added, but the odds of getting Hector/Julia is unchanged at 3%/41 = 0.073% in both scenarios. The way this would work in practice is that in the banner with the wyverns added, you'll get a lot more green orbs appearing in the first place. But assuming you draw every green orb that you get, the overall chance of getting Hector/Julia will remain the same.

No, if you pull every orb you get regardless of color, your chance of pulling Hector or Julia is the same. If you pull only green orbs, your chance of pulling Hector or Julia is lower than usual, "usual" defined as any banner with no green units in the focus.

The probability of pulling Hector (or Julia) is 0.073% if you pull every orb you get regardless of color. If you pull only greens, the fact that there are 4 focus characters diluting your pool of green units decreases the probability of pulling every non-focus character, including Hector and Julia.

Edited April 10, 2017 by Ice Dragon

[MaskedAmpharos]

@Ice Dragon pretty much echoes (pun not intended) my sentiments. 

I expect there to be one more non-Gaiden banner and then two separate Gaiden banners, one for Alm and one for Celica. 

I'm personally hoping for the coming non-Gaiden banner to be Magvel, but I'd be perfectly happy with them pairing off Blazing Shadows with a Binding Shadows FE6 banner (Sue and Rutger where) (also wouldn't say no to Milady, Perceval, and Echidna, among others). It'd be extra fitting since Zephiel is coming pretty soon too. 

[Rezzy]

22 minutes ago, MaskedAmpharos said:

@Ice Dragon pretty much echoes (pun not intended) my sentiments. 

I expect there to be one more non-Gaiden banner and then two separate Gaiden banners, one for Alm and one for Celica. 

I'm personally hoping for the coming non-Gaiden banner to be Magvel, but I'd be perfectly happy with them pairing off Blazing Shadows with a Binding Shadows FE6 banner (Sue and Rutger where) (also wouldn't say no to Milady, Perceval, and Echidna, among others). It'd be extra fitting since Zephiel is coming pretty soon too. 

If we do get a non-Gaiden Banner next, I hope it's Tellius.  There are tons of Elibe characters I'd like to get, but Tellius is sorely underrepresented at the moment.

[MaskedAmpharos]

43 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

If we do get a non-Gaiden Banner next, I hope it's Tellius.  There are tons of Elibe characters I'd like to get, but Tellius is sorely underrepresented at the moment.

Oh, Tellius is at the top of my list for what I want, but it's nowhere close in terms of what I'm expecting, which is what this thread was about. 

I don't expect any more Tellius until Ike drops, during which they'll hit us with a large Tellius banner (maybe even adding to the pool of 3* and 4* units? One can hope)

[Robert Stewart]

My guess would be a big Gaiden/SoV banner. Or maybe two banners. One featuring Almost and his starting party, and the other Celica's starting party.

Edited April 11, 2017 by Robert of Normandy

[Rezzy]

5 minutes ago, MaskedAmpharos said:

Oh, Tellius is at the top of my list for what I want, but it's nowhere close in terms of what I'm expecting, which is what this thread was about. 

I don't expect any more Tellius until Ike drops, during which they'll hit us with a large Tellius banner (maybe even adding to the pool of 3* and 4* units? One can hope)

Either way, hopefully they'll data-mine the next Banner, like they did for the Bunny one.  I like having a heads up on whether to save Orbs for the next Banner or unload on the current one.

[Great Dane]

I'm hoping for some bow knights to show up, we've gone way too long without one. Specifically, I'm hoping for Sue and Sin, but others like Wolf and Sedger, or Astrid are more than welcome.

[Robert Stewart]

9 minutes ago, Robert of Normandy said:

My guess would be a big Gaiden/SoV banner. Or maybe two banners. One featuring Almost and his starting party, and the other Celica's starting party.

To add on to this, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a series of banners in the near future to promote SoV. So after the initial parties for each team, we might see ones for the Deliverance members and Valbar's crew + a few others.

Also fairly sure the next Gauntlet will be Alm vs. Celica.

[Falcom]

11 minutes ago, Robert of Normandy said:

To add on to this, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a series of banners in the near future to promote SoV. So after the initial parties for each team, we might see ones for the Deliverance members and Valbar's crew + a few others.

Also fairly sure the next Gauntlet will be Alm vs. Celica.

Voting Gauntlet are monthly. We aren't getting one until the update after this update (meaning Alm and Celica are irrelevant by this point). Still would be interesting to see (and a difficult choice as well).

[Anacybele]

I really want a cav knights gauntlet since we just got wyvern riders and Peg knights. Team Frederick go! Freddy Bear power ftw! <3

Edited April 11, 2017 by Anacybele

[Robert Stewart]

2 hours ago, Falcom said:

Voting Gauntlet are monthly. We aren't getting one until the update after this update (meaning Alm and Celica are irrelevant by this point). Still would be interesting to see (and a difficult choice as well).

Well next month will be the NA release, yeah? So they could do it then to build interest for that or something.

[BestFriendJ0]

13 minutes ago, Robert of Normandy said:

Well next month will be the NA release, yeah? So they could do it then to build interest for that or something.

If they plan to do that then they will want Alm + Celica to be powerful so people who haven't heard of them will like them and then want their game.

[Sentinel07]

I imagine Echoes characters will be in the next one or the one after. Either one I think.