Holiday banner predictions

[EricaofRenais]

my guess is Lissa on the left and M!Robin on the right.  I figure this banner may be all Awakening characters, which means I can save my orbs, unless Priam is on it.  Of course I wouldn't say no to Hinoka and Kaze being the other two on the banner, but I don't think that will happen.  

[Rex Glacies]

Lissa is almost definitely one of them, however, I cannot tell about the others. I might be seeing Jakob's head, but I'm uncertain.

[Jonahtron]

5 minutes ago, Othin said:

Having 4 seasonal characters exclusively on the Christmas banner does not keep them from having the TT unit also be seasonal-themed. For a given TT, knowing that they'll make a new free unit for it, there's nothing stopping them from making that free unit be a seasonal variation rather than a new unit.

What’s stopping them from doing a free seasonal unit is that the seasonal units exist to make tons of money. They’re popular characters, usually in fanservicey outfits that can only be summoned for a limited period of time. Having one come for free defeats the purpose of them being seasonal.

[Othin]

Just now, Jonahtron said:

What’s stopping them from doing a free seasonal unit is that the seasonal units exist to make tons of money. They’re popular characters, usually in fanservicey outfits that can only be summoned for a limited period of time. Having one come for free defeats the purpose of them being seasonal.

Scenario A: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with some new unit

Scenario B: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with a fifth seasonal unit

I'm really not seeing why you think the second scenario would be any worse for them. It wouldn't hurt the sales of the seasonal banner because it still has 4 exclusive units. Perhaps if people only wanted one, they'd stop being interested in the banner ones because of already getting a free one... but you could just as easily say that about every TT that gives a unit related to the current banner, such as CYL 2 giving Joshua for free.

You know what did hurt the sales of a high-profile banner? Giving a CYL unit away for free. Giving Fjorm away for free, too. Because apparently they think the goodwill they can build up by being generous with cool free units is worthwhile in the long term, even if it means in the short term, an exciting banner won't sell quite as much as it would otherwise. And again, those are cases where they were giving away units actually on the banner in question as free bonuses that didn't have precedent, as opposed to my suggestion where they just take a time when there's a free unit expected and give them a design similar to the units on the banner.

[Ledrert]

Gosh, Lissa will be here too ? It's definitely her I see on the right.

Okay, if Robin is confirmed in, this banner will be huge for me. Lissa and Robin are my targets... for sure.

[Christactics]

I first saw the left one as Lissa, but it would make sense if it was Peri? I honestly have my doubts for Tharja and Robin... maybe chrom. Probably no new character will be added to Heroes through this, if there will be Morgan then I'm expecting a separate banner with the Awakening children. I think I might skip this one unless they have really good designs?

I'm starting to wonder if I should have not summoned my 2 Siegbert with 80+ orbs.

I should have not.

[Anacybele]

So (almost) all Awakening characters? BORING. I get that Lissa was the only one of the main Awakening group not to have a seasonal version yet (Chrom and Lucina got Easter, Frederick and female Robin got summer, male Robin was leaked for Christmas), but seriously, so many people are tired of the constant 3DS (specifically Awakening and Nohr) pandering.

Can't believe they're still ignoring the popularity of certain non-3DS characters I mentioned earlier. And Lissa isn't even that popular.

I guess I can only hope the fourth one is Ryoma, Ike, or Takumi.

I do still want that Robin tho.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Anacybele

[Jonahtron]

9 minutes ago, Othin said:

Scenario A: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with some new unit

Scenario B: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with a fifth seasonal unit

I'm really not seeing why you think the second scenario would be any worse for them. It wouldn't hurt the sales of the seasonal banner because it still has 4 exclusive units. Perhaps if people only wanted one, they'd stop being interested in the banner ones because of already getting a free one... but you could just as easily say that about every TT that gives a unit related to the current banner, such as CYL 2 giving Joshua for free.

You know what did hurt the sales of a high-profile banner? Giving a CYL unit away for free. Giving Fjorm away for free, too. Because apparently they think the goodwill they can build up by being generous with cool free units is worthwhile in the long term, even if it means in the short term, an exciting banner won't sell quite as much as it would otherwise. And again, those are cases where they were giving away units actually on the banner in question as free bonuses that didn't have precedent, as opposed to my suggestion where they just take a time when there's a free unit expected and give them a design similar to the units on the banner.

It’s not that it would make them less money, it’s just that there’s no point. Why would they do a tempest trial for a seasonal banner when they’ve never done anything like that before? Doesn’t make sense. Doesn’t fit with the general layout of these things.

[Charmeleonbrah]

7 minutes ago, Jonahtron said:

It’s not that it would make them less money, it’s just that there’s no point. Why would they do a tempest trial for a seasonal banner when they’ve never done anything like that before? Doesn’t make sense. Doesn’t fit with the general layout of these things.

IMO I'm not sure there will be a TT based on the Christmas banner.  The previous trials were based around a series, such as Genealogy and Echoes.  I suppose if there is a TT based on this upcoming banner, the reward would be a seasonal unit because, if they aren't, they would be the "odd man out".

[Rezzy]

I hope if we have all Awakening characters it doesn't mean we are going to have an all Fates holiday banner right after this.

My patience for holiday banners is wearing thin after June through November having them non stop.

[dragonlordsd]

I am 99% sure it's Lissa, Chrom, Robin, and Tharja.

The one on the left looks a ton like Lissa, which, if true, makes it very likely that they're going to go back to their "original" Christmas roster, which had Robin and Tharja. That's 3/4 out of awakening, and the character the one on the right looks most like is Chrom.

Of course, if it's not actually Lissa, my speculation completely falls through.

But I'm pretty sure it is.

Also, @Jonahtron

I think you're absolutely right, but what else would they do? It seems less likely they'd not do a tempest trial, so what else is there?

Edited December 14, 2017 by dragonlordsd

[Jave]

Let’s not forget that this banner was very likely planned over a year ago and intended to be the very first seasonal one, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that all the seasonals are FEH launch characters from one of the most popular games in the series. 

Good thing I pulled Tana in the second orb in the BHB banner so I can save the rest of my orbs for this. 

[Othin]

18 minutes ago, Jonahtron said:

It’s not that it would make them less money, it’s just that there’s no point. Why would they do a tempest trial for a seasonal banner when they’ve never done anything like that before? Doesn’t make sense. Doesn’t fit with the general layout of these things.

They've consistently been doing TTs for mid-month banners over the past few months, even last month where it was a CYL banner rather than a specific game. And no one had expected there to be a Voting Gauntlet based around seasonal banners, but they did it anyway. Because why not?

Which brings to mind an additional detail. For the summer gauntlet, in order to get the bonus for fielding your team's unit, you needed to have a seasonal unit. A seasonal TT would probably be the same way: all the 1.4x units would be from the seasonal banner, so that would become an additional incentive to go for one of them.

[Selena4Lyfe]

Whoever's in the banner, I just hope we finally get an Arrow Valor hero.  My bridal Cordelia needs more SP fit more experimentation with skills.

[Ice Dragon]

48 minutes ago, Othin said:

Scenario A: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with some new unit

Scenario B: Christmas banner with 4 seasonal units, TT with a fifth seasonal unit

I'm really not seeing why you think the second scenario would be any worse for them.

Because the alternative to Scenario B is not Scenario A. It's actually Scenario C: Christmas banner with 5 seasonal units.

[Othin]

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

Because the alternative to Scenario B is not Scenario A. It's actually Scenario C: Christmas banner with 5 seasonal units.

Only if they skip or push back the TT.

Plus, seasonal banners have consistently been 4 units. Diluting one with a larger unit count could get people to spend more money on them, but it could also mean people pass on it because of the decreased chance of getting the units they want. (Although I do think a larger banner size is another possibility worth considering.)

[Anacybele]

1 hour ago, Jave said:

Let’s not forget that this banner was very likely planned over a year ago and intended to be the very first seasonal one, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that all the seasonals are FEH launch characters from one of the most popular games in the series.

Let's also not forget that Charlotte and Inigo were seasonal units whose normal versions were not in the game. So it originally being planned a year ago before a lot of units were in the game is no excuse.

I do understand that this was before the CYL poll was a thing, but the popularity of some characters was still very much known, like Ike and Roy. Also, Roy was in at launch, and so were Takumi and Ryoma, the former of which is definitely popular and the latter is kinda popular. Those two are characters I would've much rather had in this banner.

Edited December 14, 2017 by Anacybele

[Noir]

Another new seasonal banner, another chance for people to give the newer games some hate again.

 

I expect it to be an Ylissean Christmas. FE Awakening was the franchises holy star that guided IS to saving the franchise just as the original guided the shepherds.  Or you could say it was their Christmas miracle that changed their fortunes. Or basically any long list of Christmas analogies. 

[Infinite Dreams]

2 hours ago, Jave said:

Let’s not forget that this banner was very likely planned over a year ago and intended to be the very first seasonal one, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that all the seasonals are FEH launch characters from one of the most popular games in the series. 

My thoughts exactly.  

I think it'll be Lissa, Chrom, Robin, and Tharja. 

No complaints here, since I love Awakening.  If it's Chrom and Lissa, I would like to pull them.  Not very interested in Robin or Tharja unless they have some sweet skills.

[EricaofRenais]

I will hold out hope for Kaze to be on the New Year's banner in a kimono.  At least I can save orbs, while I like Awakening none of my favorites from that game look like they will be on this banner.  I will wait for the trailer to make a final decision though.  If they put a colorless flyer I might try for them.  

[saisymbolic]

Well, Male!Corrin, perhaps you'll get a seasonal another time. he probably won't ever tbh

Probably gonna pull for all the units because I'm a sucker for seasonal units.

[Charmeleonbrah]

Is it confirmed that there will be a New Years banner in addition to the Christmas banner?  The last holiday banner, for Halloween, lasted thirty days, and it's safe to assume that the Xmas banner will run for 30 days as well. 

[NoirCore]

4 hours ago, Anacybele said:

So (almost) all Awakening characters? BORING. I get that Lissa was the only one of the main Awakening group not to have a seasonal version yet (Chrom and Lucina got Easter, Frederick and female Robin got summer, male Robin was leaked for Christmas), but seriously, so many people are tired of the constant 3DS (specifically Awakening and Nohr) pandering.

Can't believe they're still ignoring the popularity of certain non-3DS characters I mentioned earlier. And Lissa isn't even that popular.

I guess I can only hope the fourth one is Ryoma, Ike, or Takumi.

I do still want that Robin tho.

I'd argue the 3DS pandering isn't that big. Echoes is justified in that it just came out and now has as many characters as one of the Elibe games (and targeting games all games from a console (1 out of 5) seems sorta unfair), and until now, we've gotten NO Awakening or Fates banners and only one Awakening TT. As for VG winners, that's out of IS's hands minus choosing the participants, and even then that can't be controlled much.

Also, I'd like to know how you know that Lissa is not popular. I at least don't get the impression that she's not unpopular, so why not? Throw her in. Frederick got in.

As for the Awakefates seasonal banners, eh, I guess IS is running on the logic of that they're safer characters to fanservicize. Lyn, you got me, but Caeda does get married, so the bridal dress makes sense. I've honestly come to accept that seasonal units being Awakefates is just the norm, but I may be a little biased in that I don't care too much for funny-costume banners save for Sakura and the non-humorous dancer banner.

Edited December 14, 2017 by NoirCore

[TadpoleSuperHero]

Curious why so many are speculating a Tempest Trials for the Christmas banner. In the past, every Seasonal banner has been accompanied by new Paralogues. That seems the most likely scenario (and I'd be very grateful for the orbs, especially if it also adds to the Chain Challenges)

[Alkaid]

22 minutes ago, Charmeleonbrah said:

Is it confirmed that there will be a New Years banner in addition to the Christmas banner?  The last holiday banner, for Halloween, lasted thirty days, and it's safe to assume that the Xmas banner will run for 30 days as well. 

It's just speculation. I think it could go either way. I'm sure Christmas will run 30 days, and possibly at the start of January they could still drop a New Years banner so it'd end in time for Feburary, where I'm sure something else big will start for the anniversary of the game.

Considering it sounds like we might get another legendary banner at the end of the month, maybe they'll just go with that and skip New Years since that seems like a bit much going on all at once.