Regarding Smash Ultimate Rumours That Are Partly Right So Far

[Randoman]

I haven't seen a dedicated thread for this, so I decided to make one. Also, if a thread like this is against any SF rules I'm unaware of, mods are free to close it, and I apologize.

Anyways, certain Smash Ultimate rumours and leaks have proved themselves to be partly true so far. For example, the NeoGAF leak has proven to be right about Simon, Chrom, and King K. Rool being playable so far. And the jeuxvideo.com leak has proven to be correct about Simon, Richter, Chrom, and King K. Rool being playable, Dracula being a boss, and Stage Morph being a new feature. As for the currently unconfirmed elements in both of these leaks, they still have the potential to be true. For example, the jeuxvideo.com leak could still be right about Issac and Black Shadow being playable, since it's not like those two have been confirmed as bosses or Assist Trophies instead of playable characters.

I was curious: what do you guys think about Smash Ultimate rumours that are correct so far, but haven't had all the info in them confirmed to be true just yet? Do you think they're true? Do you think they're fake? Do you know of any other partly true rumours that I forgot to mention?

Keep in mind, I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT ALL SMASH ULTIMATE RUMOURS IN GENERAL, but the ones that have actually been correct about certain elements.

I'm personally leaning towards the partly true rumours being 100% true, since they've already done a good job at partially proving their legitimacy.

[OP Edit Note] Due to people misunderstanding the thread topic and me not communicating the topic clearly enough, the OP had to be edited significantly.

Edited September 4, 2018 by Randoman
People Were Misunderstanding the Thread Topic

[Zapp Branniglenn]

I'm thinking these leaks will only get harder to keep track of. The latest trend I've been seeing is the "Datamine" leaks. These have been picking up traction since last weeks' prank. And in fact nobody has unauthorized access to the demo. But the news that somebody "may have the demo" has seen several times more clicks than the news it was fake. So it's prime time to make fake leaks about this. 

[Etrurian emperor]

I just ignore every single one of them unless I see direct gameplay footage getting leaked. Its so easy to just lie or play around with some programs to create a ''leaked'' image. I'm not getting worked up over something that's more likely to be false than correct. 

[Johann]

1 hour ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I just ignore every single one of them unless I see direct gameplay footage getting leaked. Its so easy to just lie or play around with some programs to create a ''leaked'' image. I'm not getting worked up over something that's more likely to be false than correct. 

This is the right approach. These "leaks" are just rumors made up by kids looking for attention.

[Truebladee]

I doubt any 'leak' these days.

There are soo many 'leaks' on the internet. 

I think that if Sakurai just post the character list under a different name, nobody would believe him lol

[Randoman]

Since I didn't communicate the thread topic well enough in my OP and you guys are talking about all Smash Ultimate rumours, rather than rumours that have proven to be partially correct so far, I've edited the OP and thread title.

[Florete]

The only leak/rumor I believe is the old one from Vergeben where he stated Simon and Isabelle were coming well before the Simon reveal, so I believe Isabelle is coming.

Everything else has been proven false or is too suspicious (in one form or another) for me to believe.

[Johann]

3 minutes ago, Randoman said:

Since I didn't communicate the thread topic well enough in my OP and you guys are talking about all Smash Ultimate rumours, rather than rumours that have proven to be partially correct so far, I've edited the OP and thread title.

Even when they get parts of it right, it doesn't confirm them as credible, since it's easy to make guesses over stuff like Simon, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. Rool. Those were safe bets that anybody could have predicted (and a lot of people did). Meanwhile, Richter was completely out of left field-- nobody "leaked" him because he's too unexpected to make that kind of prediction with confidence.

5 minutes ago, Florete said:

The only leak/rumor I believe is the old one from Vergeben where he stated Simon and Isabelle were coming well before the Simon reveal, so I believe Isabelle is coming.

Everything else has been proven false or is too suspicious (in one form or another) for me to believe.

Isabelle's been a reasonably safe bet as well, especially since she not only hasn't been shown as an AT, but effectively her AT role is more or less replaced by Chef Kawasaki.

[thecrimsonflash]

In my opinion, simon, chrom and krool are very unsurprising and very safe guesses, especially after everyone is here and ridley were announced, just because you guessed the two most likely candidates after the most unlikely candidate gets in doesn't get you much credibility in my eyes.

I admit that richter and stage morph are impressive (richter less so due to being the next most recognisable belmont after simon, some regard symphony of the night as the greatest of the castlevanias and richter was a main character and an optional playable character in that one), I have trouble imagining the thought processes behind stage morph being easy to replicate, so I will say that one is likely real.

In general I personally love leaks, especially the fake ones, they really get people thinking and prevent things from getting stale when talking about the new games, just look at three houses, that board would have been dead for so long if not for fake leaks but I think we reached over 100 pages of discussion and speculation, for a game that we knew less than nothing about, except for the asshole who leaked the 3ds/wiiu roster, that isn't a fun leak.

[Randoman]

2 minutes ago, Johann said:

Even when they get parts of it right, it doesn't confirm them as credible, since it's easy to make guesses over stuff like Simon, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. Rool. Those were safe bets that anybody could have predicted (and a lot of people did). Meanwhile, Richter was completely out of left field-- nobody "leaked" him because he's too unexpected to make that kind of prediction with confidence.

Fair enough, and I can understand the skepticism for being right about safe bets. But jeuxvideo.com leaking Stage Morph on July 12, 2018 before it was revealed on August 8, 2018 is hardly a safe bet to make. That's not exactly the kind of new element Smash fans would predict would be in a new Smash game.

23 minutes ago, Florete said:

Everything else has been proven false or is too suspicious (in one form or another) for me to believe.

I'm curious, what about the jeuxvideo.com rumours do you find too suspicious?

I can understand your skepticism of the NeoGAF leak. I mean, the 2nd post has had Galacta Knight mostly deconfirmed due to Meta Knight having Galacta Knight as a costume. Even if you count the 1st post as the only truly legitimate one (since the 2nd and 3rd posts were done from different accounts), I'll admit that I'm also really skeptical of playable Soren.

[thecrimsonflash]

15 minutes ago, Randoman said:

I can understand your skepticism of the NeoGAF leak. I mean, the 2nd post has had Galacta Knight mostly deconfirmed due to Meta Knight having Galacta Knight as a costume. Even if you count the 1st post as the only truly legitimate one (since the 2nd and 3rd posts were done from different accounts), I'll admit that I'm also really skeptical of playable Soren.

I disagree on the galacta knight costume, simon has a richter alt, there is no clear reasoning behind the alts, they appear to be more so, whatever sakurai want's them to be, mario also has a wario alt.

[Florete]

30 minutes ago, Randoman said:

I'm curious, what about the jeuxvideo.com rumours do you find too suspicious?

Now that I check it, I actually hadn't seen that one yet. I would like to see the original post before calling judgement on it, though, and your link doesn't list a source for it. I find it odd no one seems to be talking about it otherwise, because from the summary it seems pretty plausibly real. 

[The DanMan]

17 minutes ago, Randoman said:

But jeuxvideo.com leaking Stage Morph on July 12, 2018 before it was revealed on August 8, 2018 is hardly a safe bet to make. That's not exactly the kind of new element Smash fans would predict would be in a new Smash game.

The topic itself was either deleted by mods or fabricated outright after the "fact", and it's number was far closer to recent topics than ones dated that far back-- at least that's what I've seen.

I'm reminded of a 2chan one that seemingly called every single revealed character so far + some dated in January... but it turns out the archive site it was in was made the day before and the thread didn't exist at all.

35 minutes ago, Johann said:

It's easy to make guesses over stuff like Simon, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. Rool

Nobody expected Simon before Vergeben. Nintendo outright passed up asking for Snake back in Smash 4 and virtually nobody thought Konami would care for/be cooperative with things (with the only semi-talked about character being Bomberman). And keep in mind, this was pre-E3 when Verg started talking.

And no Echo fighters have been leaked at all at this point-- everybody just guessed Chrom and Dark Samus. I think it's telling that they're significantly lower priority with far fewer people being involved/knowing about them. After all, they don't generate nearly as much hype as unique newcomers.

K. Rool was contested-- many thought Ridley was in purely because of the memes + Metroid's resurgence, while K. Rool hasn't had any notable appearances in a decade. The Smash Ballot being used for newcomers (with the only explicit selection from it so far being K. Rool) wasn't widespread knowledge, only being mentioned on the Japanese site.

36 minutes ago, Johann said:

Isabelle's been a reasonably safe bet as well, especially since she not only hasn't been shown as an AT, but effectively her AT role is more or less replaced by Chef Kawasaki.

Assist Trophy that heals the fighter who summoned it = clone of Kirby's old (offensively based) final smash that sucks opposing players into it?

Tl;DR It's easy to act smug and call characters safe after their heavily rumored/revealed.

To address the topic at hand, I believe both Vergeben and loz18 definitely should be paid attention to, but they also aren't infallible. They haven't gotten anything wrong yet, but loz's done some flip-flopping recently and Verg's stuff is just a crapshoot in general.

[Florete]

14 minutes ago, The DanMan said:

To address the topic at hand, I believe both Vergeben and loz18 definitely should be paid attention to, but they also aren't infallible. They haven't gotten anything wrong yet, but loz's done some flip-flopping recently and Verg's stuff is just a crapshoot in general.

Agreed on this. They definitely had real information once, but lately they seem like they're just attention-whoring. I don't trust anything they say anymore, especially loz18.

I actually forgot to mention, but I think the CEO leak that mentioned Gardevoir and Gothitelle should still be considered. It survived the Smash direct, which is impressive in itself, and it's just strange enough to feel plausible. I can't say I fully believe it, but I am leaning towards it being real.

[Johann]

1 hour ago, Randoman said:

Fair enough, and I can understand the skepticism for being right about safe bets. But jeuxvideo.com leaking Stage Morph on July 12, 2018 before it was revealed on August 8, 2018 is hardly a safe bet to make. That's not exactly the kind of new element Smash fans would predict would be in a new Smash game.

Hadn't heard anything about that, though even if a person actually does have some legit information, it doesn't necessarily mean that they have everything.

41 minutes ago, The DanMan said:

Nobody expected Simon before Vergeben. Nintendo outright passed up asking for Snake back in Smash 4 and virtually nobody thought Konami would care for/be cooperative with things (with the only semi-talked about character being Bomberman). And keep in mind, this was pre-E3 when Verg started talking.

And no Echo fighters have been leaked at all at this point-- everybody just guessed Chrom and Dark Samus. I think it's telling that they're significantly lower priority with far fewer people being involved/knowing about them. After all, they don't generate nearly as much hype as unique newcomers.

K. Rool was contested-- many thought Ridley was in purely because of the memes + Metroid's resurgence, while K. Rool hasn't had any notable appearances in a decade. The Smash Ballot being used for newcomers (with the only explicit selection from it so far being K. Rool) wasn't widespread knowledge, only being mentioned on the Japanese site.

You're giving these people way too much credit. People had been anticipating Simon since Snake's debut in Brawl. I sure have been.

You're also missing the point; it's not about whether or not these characters were specifically discussed in leaks, it's that when someone makes a safe guess under the guise of a leak, it's only to make themselves seem more credible. Whether or not people disagreed over how likely they were is irrelevant. That they never brought up Richter should be enough to have you doubt them unless you're gullible and feel the need to latch onto these things.

46 minutes ago, The DanMan said:

Assist Trophy that heals the fighter who summoned it = clone of Kirby's old (offensively based) final smash that sucks opposing players into it?

  Reveal hidden contents

Tl;DR It's easy to act smug and call characters safe after their heavily rumored/revealed.

What's the point of an AT that simply distributes food when there's one that does that and also attacks the enemy? Isabelle's also like the most popular character from AC, I mean she's in Mario Kart for crying out loud. That she hasn't been confirmed as remaining an AT again is enough to consider her a strong possibility.

Nothing smug about making the obvious connections here, some of us can reach these conclusions on our own and did so long before random internet kids thought they'd make a name for themselves. Don't bother responding to me if you're just going to defend those idiots because I'm not interested.

[Tryhard]

Vergeben has been questionable to say the least regarding his leaks on Soulcalibur VI, and it seems like his method is to grab a bunch of sources all of which say different things, including parroting 4chan leaks (funnily enough which turned out to be right in this case, and was mentioned on there before he ever brought up a new character with the same name), then when some of them don't turn out, to say that it was just a particular source that was bad. He was wrong about several things, including saying there would be a Switch version with Link as a guest character (there is no Switch version and the developers says there is no plans for one currently).

I don't pay attention to other games he's leaked for, but while he is sometimes right with some predictions that are a bit out there, I'm starting to get the impression he may just go looking for lesser known leak posts that go unnoticed and then uses them.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Edgelord

[Jedi]

2 hours ago, thecrimsonflash said:

I disagree on the galacta knight costume, simon has a richter alt, there is no clear reasoning behind the alts, they appear to be more so, whatever sakurai want's them to be, mario also has a wario alt.

That alt isn't based on Richter, it's based on the Castlevania IV Japanese Cover Art.

[The DanMan]

1 hour ago, Johann said:

What's the point of an AT that simply distributes food when there's one that does that and also attacks the enemy?

Isabelle is a heal over time, periodically giving out food to the player that summoned her-- the other one is a clone of Kirby's old final smash and leaves food for anyone to pick up at the end of it. The only thing they have in common is that they loosely involve food. It's as arbitrary a "replacement" as you can get-- hell, this downright reads like gamefaqs trolling.

1 hour ago, Johann said:

People had been anticipating Simon since Snake's debut in Brawl.

Yet virtually nobody realistically expected him at all after Konami went to shit and Nintendo didn't even bother asking for Snake back during Smash 4's development. Here Verg comes out saying Snake will return and Simon Belmont will come with him, months before E3 and we find out that Everyone's Here and even further before the Direct that confirmed Simon Belmont.

1 hour ago, Johann said:

Nothing smug about making the obvious connections here, some of us can reach these conclusions on our own and did so long before random internet kids thought they'd make a name for themselves. Don't bother responding to me if you're just going to defend those idiots because I'm not interested.

>"Nothing smug"
>Proceeds to act extremely smug

You're basically going "nothing ever leaks" then plugging your ears and rationalizing away everything to fit your narrative because it's somehow impossible to comprehend or something.

[Johann]

1 hour ago, The DanMan said:

Isabelle is a heal over time, periodically giving out food to the player that summoned her-- the other one is a clone of Kirby's old final smash and leaves food for anyone to pick up at the end of it. The only thing they have in common is that they loosely involve food. It's as arbitrary a "replacement" as you can get-- hell, this downright reads like gamefaqs trolling.

She just throws food. What are you trying to argue here? All I've said is that having an AT that does similar things makes her less likely to appear in the same role as she had before, but that her popularity suggests that she wouldn't simply be dropped. If you think that's gamefaqs troll level posting, then you didn't understand me in the slightest.

1 hour ago, The DanMan said:

Yet virtually nobody realistically expected him at all after Konami went to shit and Nintendo didn't even bother asking for Snake back during Smash 4's development. Here Verg comes out saying Snake will return and Simon Belmont will come with him, months before E3 and we find out that Everyone's Here and even further before the Direct that confirmed Simon Belmont.

I'll repeat what I said above: even if a person has some correct information, it doesn't confirm everything they say. Whether or not a guy has a source or guessed correctly doesn't mean he has all the information. You should consider that this guy is wrong about a number of things too.

1 hour ago, The DanMan said:

>"Nothing smug"

>Proceeds to act extremely smug

You're basically going "nothing ever leaks" then plugging your ears and rationalizing away everything to fit your narrative because it's somehow impossible to comprehend or something.

Look, you wanna believe these idiots, go for it, I really don't give a shit. You're having a hard time understanding what I'm saying; it's not that nothing ever leaks, it's that there are too many people who are just stirring rumors for funsies. It's easy to come up with something that sounds (and may ultimately be) right, especially if you're aware of the odds. The difference is that most people choose to just say "I bet/hope this character is getting in" and talk about it like regular people, as opposed to making fake rosters and shit for attention. I don't mind people wanting to believe in that stuff cuz it doesn't affect me, but you're making an ass of yourself by getting aggressive over it all.

What are you trying to do here? Why are you starting shit with me over this? You're the only one who seems to have beef with what I'm saying. You could have just said "I disagree" and made a simple case, but if you wanna call me smug and irrational to my face in order to defend some random internet dudes, then you can fuck right off. If what I say really drives you nuts, hit the ignore button.

Edited September 5, 2018 by Johann

[Florete]

Okay I think we can be a bit less aggressive here but I do agree with @The DanMan about Simon. I didn't hear a peep about Simon in Smash 4 speculation at all and no one talked about him for Ultimate until Vergeben mentioned him being in. Back when it started, you really couldn't call that a safe guess.

But yeah, as I said above, that's about all I believe from Vergeben. When he started with his, "A gen 7 Pokemon...but it's not Decidueye...or Lycanroc...or Mimikyu" nonsense, I stopped taking him seriously. Feels like either he's trolling or his "sources" are.

[Captain Karnage]

For me I just ignore them, as having been on the internet for the past 11 years I've seen my fare share of fake leaks. However after ArtsyOmni and the Rayman prank these leaks have to be really high quality for me to believe.

As for Isaac, I'm pretty sure he's in after seeing Sakurai's Twitter feed, being his last tweet is just screaming Golden Sun.

[NSSKG151]

I stand by my belief that most if not all rumors/leaks are fake until proven true. I hate hearing about 'oh, this rumor is true because of such and such reason' when I very much prefer hearing the news come the company themselves instead of hearing about the news, true or fake, spilling out on the internet.

[eclipse]

I think rumors are just that, and being overly emotional about them is bad.

Like, I'm-tempted-to-lock-this-topic bad.  Keep it in check.

[thecrimsonflash]

22 hours ago, Jedi said:

That alt isn't based on Richter, it's based on the Castlevania IV Japanese Cover Art.

God, simon's design is inconsistent between games.

my point is that to instantly mark something off because of something as petty as an alt seems questionable to me, the alts are more intended to be references than anything else, sure they are less likely to reference already playable characters, but I think since smash 4 they have prefered to focus on references over original alts.

[Jedi]

1 hour ago, thecrimsonflash said:

God, simon's design is inconsistent between games.

my point is that to instantly mark something off because of something as petty as an alt seems questionable to me, the alts are more intended to be references than anything else, sure they are less likely to reference already playable characters, but I think since smash 4 they have prefered to focus on references over original alts.

Fair point. I was just pointing this out haha.