FEH Revenue Drop!!!

[Endriu]

@XRay

I have no idea how much google fee is but in the end even if its 30% it doesn't change the income proportions  as physical copies will have similar costs, attached or even higher imo, retailers and wholesalers won't distribute for free. 

[SwordsDude]

10 hours ago, Jave said:

This is fine and all, but the problem here is that you can't combine the revenue of a series of games the years (three decades, in this case) precisely because of inflation, as you're not accounting for any of the production costs, interest and taxes, which makes all the numbers unreliable.

And again, this is not the point of this thread. The point is that FEH is losing revenue over the years, and if the trend continues, eventually they'll be at a loss.

Here's his point though and especially if we pick a lower value.

Let's say 50$ a game on average since a sizable chunk is 40$ a game he does have a point that it does his point a bit more

15.7 Million FE games have been sold wich includes spinoffs times 50$ that's 785 million$ of raw revenue withouth profit just like With FE heroes

FE heroes on the other hand made over 650 million maybe 700 million at this very moment

THe FE series including spinoffs has 20 + games

FE heroes almost has the same revenue as pretty much all FE games on the market that have been sold.

Doesn't fe heroes make plenty if we consider that. Unless you guys really think that FE heroes is more pricy to produce than 20+ actual FE games including some spinoffs

650 million for 1 single mobile game vs 785 million of 20+ full games in wich allot of people including me would probably would assume that even a single base game would have a higher dev cost than FE heroes. just like FE heroes that revenue is raw. we still have developtment costs for 20 games advertising taxes you name it..

If I had to guess this is what he means and I have to agree with him FE heroes is only 20% less total revenue than the entire FE franchise period. It's allot wich is why you would think that a revenue drop might not be that big of a deal.

and even if we upped that value to 60$ a game it doesnt make that much of a difference FE heroes almost made more money than the entire fire emblem franchise. so it really let's someone think how high was that profit margin compared to 20+ base games. considering that a single mobile app earned almost as much money as 20+ actual FE games. also before 3ds era. pretty much all main fire emblem games had very mediocre sales. so before 3ds era there profit margins where almost break even barely worth it.  nes and snes era where considered alright at the time with 300 K to almost 1 M sales for each game. GBA to wii/ ds era was horrific with tops 300K sales for a 1 single game but everything else dipping below 300K units by a sizable chunk even as low as 150k units. they probably broke even or made some losses in the gba till wii era there is a reason why awakening could have been the final game in the series. as their last effort to get above 300K units again.

Edited February 17, 2020 by SwordsDude

[XRay]

10 hours ago, Endriu said:

I have no idea how much google fee is but in the end even if its 30% it doesn't change the income proportions  as physical copies will have similar costs, attached or even higher imo, retailers and wholesalers won't distribute for free. 

It is not just the Google fee though. We simply do not have the information to conclude that. There could be more than just distribution fees.

7 hours ago, SwordsDude said:

FE heroes almost has the same revenue as pretty much all FE games on the market that have been sold.

Doesn't fe heroes make plenty if we consider that. Unless you guys really think that FE heroes is more pricy to produce than 20+ actual FE games including some spinoffs

That is the point, we do not know what the costs are going into Heroes. Heroes is not a regular game where Nintendo develops once, makes cartridges for, and distributes traditionally.

Heroes has a completely different development model, has no cartridges to speak of, and has an entirely different distribution and revenue generation model.

We already have little to no information concerning how much money is going into each product, so claiming any game costs more than any other game on the same system is just wild speculation. On top of that, we are comparing two games with two different business models on two different systems and we have no idea what the costs are going into each business model.

Additionally, Nintendo has specifically stated that the development of mobile applications was substantial in the same sentence as traditional games. This statement by Nintendo alone means we do not have the information to compare the cost of Heroes to the cost of traditional games.

All of us assumed Heroes was cheap to make compared to traditional games. However, that statement from Nintendo directly contradicts our assumptions. If Nintendo did not mention the cost of mobile applications, then it would be pretty reasonable to assume that Heroes is in fact cheaper.

[Endriu]

59 minutes ago, XRay said:

It is not just the Google fee though. We simply do not have the information to conclude that. There could be more than just distribution fees.

That is the point, we do not know what the costs are going into Heroes. Heroes is not a regular game where Nintendo develops once, makes cartridges for, and distributes traditionally.

Heroes has a completely different development model, has no cartridges to speak of, and has an entirely different distribution and revenue generation model.

We already have little to no information concerning how much money is going into each product, so claiming any game costs more than any other game on the same system is just wild speculation. On top of that, we are comparing two games with two different business models on two different systems and we have no idea what the costs are going into each business model.

Additionally, Nintendo has specifically stated that the development of mobile applications was substantial in the same sentence as traditional games. This statement by Nintendo alone means we do not have the information to compare the cost of Heroes to the cost of traditional games.

All of us assumed Heroes was cheap to make compared to traditional games. However, that statement from Nintendo directly contradicts our assumptions. If Nintendo did not mention the cost of mobile applications, then it would be pretty reasonable to assume that Heroes is in fact cheaper.

That statement simply means the development from scratch costs more than your average android game and is a risk if it fails. It will still be cheaper to develope than a 3a console game with high production values (think witcher3). Once the base game is finished they just add to it and I don't wanna bring up those anniversary maps again.

As I mentioned before it doesn't really matter to me as either way I am not gonna spend a single cent on this game after the introduction of the offensive dickpass. 

Feh has always been critisized for confusing new units with content. I fear this will be the case until the game shuts down. Seriously? 13 anniversary maps. Good thing they just put 3 enemies on the map, hope next year they will go down to 2 in case a new player might struggle, lmfao, or better make it 1, preferrably without weapon equipped.

Just out of curiosity, have you built any buildings in mjolnir strike yet? I still haven't touched those, I don't even remember what those things are called.

 

Edited February 17, 2020 by Endriu

[XRay]

13 minutes ago, Endriu said:

It will still be cheaper to develope than a 3a console game with high production values (think witcher3).

That is an assumption that is not backed up by figures and statements. Based on the statement Nintendo gave us, it means we simply do not know whether Heroes is cheaper or more expensive. Heroes has been in continuous development for three years now, and no one knows how much that will affect the cost. Nintendo's statement mentioned nothing about mobile applications costing less to develop than regular game development.

If Nintendo did not say that, then we can pretty confidently assume that mobile development is indeed cheaper.

13 minutes ago, Endriu said:

Just out of curiosity, have you built any buildings in mjolnir strike yet? I still haven't touched those, I don't even remember what those things are called.

I just build whatever Mechanism the mode says is the bonus Mechanism, so I have most of them of them now.

Edited February 17, 2020 by XRay

[SwordsDude]

2 hours ago, XRay said:

It is not just the Google fee though. We simply do not have the information to conclude that. There could be more than just distribution fees.

That is the point, we do not know what the costs are going into Heroes. Heroes is not a regular game where Nintendo develops once, makes cartridges for, and distributes traditionally.

Heroes has a completely different development model, has no cartridges to speak of, and has an entirely different distribution and revenue generation model.

We already have little to no information concerning how much money is going into each product, so claiming any game costs more than any other game on the same system is just wild speculation. On top of that, we are comparing two games with two different business models on two different systems and we have no idea what the costs are going into each business model.

Additionally, Nintendo has specifically stated that the development of mobile applications was substantial in the same sentence as traditional games. This statement by Nintendo alone means we do not have the information to compare the cost of Heroes to the cost of traditional games.

All of us assumed Heroes was cheap to make compared to traditional games. However, that statement from Nintendo directly contradicts our assumptions. If Nintendo did not mention the cost of mobile applications, then it would be pretty reasonable to assume that Heroes is in fact cheaper.

Do you have an article in wich nintendo states this? that mobile apps are not that cheap to produce? if where looking at grapics maybe only mario kart tour falls in that category if I had to guess. the grapics did look pretty good for that title. more advanced than say pokemon go or 2d art work hard to tell really.

 

Eitherway

What about this, they say that a game like pokemon go cost around 450 to 600K to make. I've also seen multiple articles stating that even the most high end games might only be around 1 million to develop tops.

and when all is said and done you only have server costs and some smaller updates per year. and pokemon go is one of the big boys. so maintenance per year might only be 100 to 200K

also keep in mind that fe heroes has less players than pokemon go for those online activities. Meaning less server costs for online play. also server costs for mobile games in general don't require that much connection to say online pvp in games or mmorpg's in wich your connected with tons of people at all times. needing to register moves of all people at all times in real time. calculations etc something that is not needed with online games on mobile. usually just sending over some data and it's done.

https://stfalcon.com/en/blog/post/pokemon-go-clone-development-cost

https://www.imaginovation.net/blog/mobile-game-app-development-cost/

Also nintendo's mobile games like dragalia lost are succesfull with just 120 million lifetime revenue. surely fe heroes does not have 5 times the investment of dragalia lost.

https://sensortower.com/blog/nintendo-revenue-one-billion

even if fe heroes revenue dropped to 30 - 40 million a year it could still be profitable I'd imagine  just 5 to 10 million being a succes If I'm looking at those numbers for a a mobile game like pokemon. dragalia lost is also considered one of the better gacha games after all. with just 120 Million life time sales. 40 million a year

Edited February 17, 2020 by SwordsDude

[XRay]

9 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

Do you have an article in wich nintendo states this? that mobile apps are not that cheap to produce?

The point is there is no information to claim either way.

You cannot claim something as true if there is not strong enough evidence to support it. Unless you have direct knowledge on how Heroes is made and what the costs are, we cannot claim Heroes is cheaper to make compared to regular games.

Just because most oranges taste sweeter than apples, does not mean all oranges are sweeter than apples. Nintendo's statement is saying that their oranges and apples are really sweet, and because they did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than oranges. Due to financial reporting guidelines and how it works, if Nintendo's statement only said that their oranges are really sweet, then we can pretty confidently assume that Nintendo's oranges are sweeter than their apples. With how things are worded, the possibility is high enough that I am unwilling to assume that Heroes is cheaper to make.

1. This peron's oranges are really sweet.
2. This peron's oranges and apples are really sweet.

For statement 1, we know oranges are really sweet, and since apples are not mentioned, we know that the apples' sweetness is irrelevant and we can safely assume apples are not really sweet. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 99% certainty.

For statement 2, we know both fruits are really sweet, but since the person did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than their oranges. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 70% certainty. While 70% might seem high to you, that level of certainty is not enough to safely assume that oranges are sweeter than apples, at least not in my profession.

[Endriu]

16 minutes ago, XRay said:

The point is there is no information to claim either way.

You cannot claim something as true if there is not strong enough evidence to support it. Unless you have direct knowledge on how Heroes is made and what the costs are, we cannot claim Heroes is cheaper to make compared to regular games.

Just because most oranges taste sweeter than apples, does not mean all oranges are sweeter than apples. Nintendo's statement is saying that their oranges and apples are really sweet, and because they did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than oranges. Due to financial reporting guidelines and how it works, if Nintendo's statement only said that their oranges are really sweet, then we can pretty confidently assume that Nintendo's oranges are sweeter than their apples. With how things are worded, the possibility is high enough that I am unwilling to assume that Heroes is cheaper to make.

1. This peron's oranges are really sweet.
2. This peron's oranges and apples are really sweet.

For statement 1, we know oranges are really sweet, and since apples are not mentioned, we know that the apples' sweetness is irrelevant and we can safely assume apples are not really sweet. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 99% certainty.

For statement 2, we know both fruits are really sweet, but since the person did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than their oranges. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 70% certainty. While 70% might seem high to you, that level of certainty is not enough to safely assume that oranges are sweeter than apples, at least not in my profession.

I think you are slowly bringing this to another fanboy level.

Nintendo frequently stated early on feh was meant to introduce new players to the franchise. The goal was to sell more console games and prolly consoles. That's why they went for the most simple game structure possible: a watered down version of fire emblem with casual play in mind. They were even surprised at the level of success (and profit, lol) so they kept the wheel spinning. Feh was always a little bit light on content but people kept spending anyway and nintendo realized there is lots of money to be made - they got used to it and now that revenue dropped from fantastic to just magnificent they had to introduce the dickpass.

Thankfully there is lots of people out there who are worried about feh's well-being so it will never die.

[SwordsDude]

41 minutes ago, XRay said:

The point is there is no information to claim either way.

You cannot claim something as true if there is not strong enough evidence to support it. Unless you have direct knowledge on how Heroes is made and what the costs are, we cannot claim Heroes is cheaper to make compared to regular games.

Just because most oranges taste sweeter than apples, does not mean all oranges are sweeter than apples. Nintendo's statement is saying that their oranges and apples are really sweet, and because they did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than oranges. Due to financial reporting guidelines and how it works, if Nintendo's statement only said that their oranges are really sweet, then we can pretty confidently assume that Nintendo's oranges are sweeter than their apples. With how things are worded, the possibility is high enough that I am unwilling to assume that Heroes is cheaper to make.

1. This peron's oranges are really sweet.
2. This peron's oranges and apples are really sweet.

For statement 1, we know oranges are really sweet, and since apples are not mentioned, we know that the apples' sweetness is irrelevant and we can safely assume apples are not really sweet. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 99% certainty.

For statement 2, we know both fruits are really sweet, but since the person did not elaborate on which one is sweeter, there is a possibility that their apples are sweeter than their oranges. With how financial reporting guidelines work, I can say that the person's oranges are sweeter than the apples with 70% certainty. While 70% might seem high to you, that level of certainty is not enough to safely assume that oranges are sweeter than apples, at least not in my profession.

you did check the articles right. the costs for mobile apps

https://stfalcon.com/en/blog/post/pokemon-go-clone-development-cost

https://www.imaginovation.net/blog/mobile-game-app-development-cost/

an app like pokemon go would cost 400 to 600K to develop

and the most high end mobile games would cost around 1 Million.

also dragalia lost is a succes with just 40 million a year. probably a very simular budget to fe heroes. not to mention tons of gacha games with not that much lesser visuals and content being succesfull with just a 1 to a few Million dollars a year.

Edited February 17, 2020 by SwordsDude

[eclipse]

32 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

you did check the articles right. the costs for mobile apps

https://stfalcon.com/en/blog/post/pokemon-go-clone-development-cost

https://www.imaginovation.net/blog/mobile-game-app-development-cost/

an app like pokemon go would cost 400 to 600K to develop

and the most high end mobile games would cost around 1 Million.

also dragalia lost is a succes with just 40 million a year. probably a very simular budget to fe heroes. not to mention tons of gacha games with not that much lesser visuals and content being succesfull with just a 1 to a few Million dollars a year.

First link: Pokemon GO and Fire Emblem Heroes are two completely different beasts.  QA is far better in the latter, for one. . .along with voice/art hires, none of which Pokemon GO has to deal with (and it's a recurring expense, since new characters are added regularly).
Second link: With no sources for those numbers other than their statements, I'm going to go with "my magic 8-ball" for those budget numbers.

[SwordsDude]

24 minutes ago, eclipse said:

First link: Pokemon GO and Fire Emblem Heroes are two completely different beasts.  QA is far better in the latter, for one. . .along with voice/art hires, none of which Pokemon GO has to deal with (and it's a recurring expense, since new characters are added regularly).
Second link: With no sources for those numbers other than their statements, I'm going to go with "my magic 8-ball" for those budget numbers.

Voice actors don't earn as much as you might think. they usually get paid 60 to 100$ an hour especially if where talking anime and games. and where not talking big roles here with them new characters, these are just a couple of lines usually. and they are not getting paid for practice at home.

Might just be 100 to 200$ per character for voice acting only heck maybe even 50$ it's usually just a couple of voice lines. voice acting with those few voice lines are not going to break the bank anytime soon. There are exceptions for really popular roles such as goku vegeta mario etc for the better paid gigs but feh isnt one of them I'd imagine just the normal rates at around 60$ an hour.

Same goes for the artists for the new characters. sure it adds up but where not talking big money here. probably around 500$ per update if i had to guess. 

So new character art and voice acting 500 to 1000$ per update I'd say. these people do tons of other things on the side this isnt a full time job for those voice actors or artists. it's just one of the many commisions that they do.

I'd still say that pokemon go is probably the more expensive game to make compared to fe heroes. voice acting and 2d art aren't that pricy.

Edited February 17, 2020 by SwordsDude

[eclipse]

5 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

Voice actors don't earn as much as you might think. they usually get paid 60 to 100$ an hour especially if where talking anime and games. and where not talking big roles here with them new characters, these are just a couple of lines usually. and they are not getting paid for practice at home.

Might just be 100 to 200$ per character for voice acting only. voice acting with those few voice lines are not going to break the bank anytime soon. There are exceptions for really popular roles such as goku vegeta etc for the better paid gigs but feh isnt one of them I'd imagine just the normal rates.

Same goes for the artists for the new characters. sure it adds up but where not talking big money here. probably around 500$ per update if i had to guess. 

So new character art and voice acting 500 to 1000$ per update I'd say. these people do tons of other things on the side this isnt a full time job for those voice actors or artists. it's just one of the many commisions that they do.

I'd still say that pokemon go is probably the more expensive game to make compared to fe heroes. voice acting and 2d art aren't that pricy.

. . .are you estimating, or are you absolutely certain about these figures?  You'll have to take into account that the rates will use whatever JP has standard, at least for art.

[SwordsDude]

12 minutes ago, eclipse said:

. . .are you estimating, or are you absolutely certain about these figures?  You'll have to take into account that the rates will use whatever JP has standard, at least for art.

for the voice acting around 60$ an hour is fairly normal if you look around  can't imagine a few voice lines exceeding that time limit. only really popular roles get full time jobs and a better salary than that. overall voice actors for games and anime are not great paying jobs unless where talking some really popular character roles wich get allot of screen time.

and as far as art part goes  it could differ but don;t expect sky high numbers.  a ton of the more popular sought after artists rarely do commisions wich exceed the 500$ usually 250$ mark for simular drawing quality as in FEH heroes or a ton of other gacha games

Here's a link to all the artsis in feh heroes

https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/Artists_of_the_Fire_Emblem_series/Fire_Emblem_Heroes

The feh heroes art is just another commision for such artists.

Now the artist for say tree houses had to do allot more than just a few pics so in those cases it will naturally be far more pricy than 500$ maybe even a full time job to name one example. it all depends on the size of the commision really.

also if where talking japanese artists a ton of them are heavily under paid in wich they only earn around 500$ a month so really hard to tell depends wich artists they choose really. a ton of people in the japanese art sector get abused big time since they enjoy doing it so much.

However I'd imagine they would pick some of the better artists so 250 to 500$ per commision is probably the correct estimate.

Edited February 17, 2020 by SwordsDude

[eclipse]

Just now, SwordsDude said:

for the voice acting around 60$ an hour is fairly normal if you look around  can't imagine a few voice lines exceeding that time limit. only really popular roles get full time jobs and a better salary than that. overall voice actors for games and anime are not great paying jobs unless where talking some really popular character roles wich get allot of screen time.

and as far as art part goes  it could differ but don;t expect sky high numbers.  a ton of the more popular sought after artists rarely do commisions wich exceed the 500$ usually 250$ mark for simular drawing quality as in FEH heroes or a ton of other gacha games

Here's a link to all the artsis in feh heroes

https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/Artists_of_the_Fire_Emblem_series/Fire_Emblem_Heroes

The feh heroes art is just another commision for such artists.

Now the artist for say tree houses had to do allot more than just a few pics so in those cases it will naturally be far more pricy than 500$ maybe even a full time job to name one example. it all depends on the size of the commision really.

. . .do you honestly think that "hey look at my DeviantART I do commissions" and something for a video game would have equivalent rates?

How much do you know about the Heroes artists?

[SwordsDude]

45 minutes ago, eclipse said:

. . .do you honestly think that "hey look at my DeviantART I do commissions" and something for a video game would have equivalent rates?

How much do you know about the Heroes artists?

FE heroes has a ton of different artists wich made just 1 to multiple characters . meaning that a ton of characters in feh with them updates are just a commision for a ton of artists who participated. a side job for the moment. most artists are free lancers after all and doing multiple commisions at a time.

I we say look at this guy who has done 3 characters in feh heroes like the Lucina exalt bunny suit.

https://www.deviantart.com/tomiokajiro/gallery

https://twitter.com/tomioka2#_=_

in his twitter page the recommended commision price is 25000 yen wich is 230 dollars as a guide line.

There are some artists with 5+ characters so i'd imagine a bigger job for those but a ton of artists only did literally 1 to 3 characters. 

I'm not going to say that the art prices are facts. but looking it all them profiles of said artists. it's pretty much what i expected of the more popular artists on deviant art pixit with such prices. it's not that much different. high end commisions rarely exceed 500$ and if you order multiple characters at once  you'll get a package deal making it cheaper per character

Where not talking artists like ken sugimori who work full time only for pokemon and don't do anything else. or artists for zelda mario games pretty much any big game. or in the case of tree houses in wich the guy had to work full time on it. where talking a few pictures per character only after all.

Usually when where talking game development you have some artists who work full time and do all the work but in the case of feh heroes it seems like a commision based system per character. they have so many artists who only do a few characters after all.

I'll back off with the dicussions for now. But I really think some people might overestimate the costs of the art and especially the voice acting in the regular updates. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by SwordsDude

[XRay]

2 hours ago, Endriu said:

I think you are slowly bringing this to another fanboy level.

Nintendo frequently stated early on feh was meant to introduce new players to the franchise. The goal was to sell more console games and prolly consoles. That's why they went for the most simple game structure possible: a watered down version of fire emblem with casual play in mind. They were even surprised at the level of success (and profit, lol) so they kept the wheel spinning. Feh was always a little bit light on content but people kept spending anyway and nintendo realized there is lots of money to be made - they got used to it and now that revenue dropped from fantastic to just magnificent they had to introduce the dickpass.

Just because Heroes was meant to introduce new players to the franchise does not mean it is cheap. They could have totally went the low effort route and spend little money on Heroes and other mobile applications, so they do not have to mention the cost on their financial reports. But no, they spent quite a substantial sum of money on mobile games, enough to warrant that the success and failure of their mobile games may affect the company's' bottom line.

2 hours ago, Endriu said:

Thankfully there is lots of people out there who are worried about feh's well-being so it will never die.

No one is expecting Heroes to stay on forever. Only about a handful of mobile games make it past 10 years.

2 hours ago, SwordsDude said:

you did check the articles right. the costs for mobile apps

https://stfalcon.com/en/blog/post/pokemon-go-clone-development-cost

https://www.imaginovation.net/blog/mobile-game-app-development-cost/

an app like pokemon go would cost 400 to 600K to develop

and the most high end mobile games would cost around 1 Million.

I can work with those estimates. Heroes is at least a mid level game, with multiple units and maps, and Nintendo also seeked out help from an experienced developer like DeNA, so I think they treated it as a high level game and probably spent about that sum of money on Heroes. I would classify Pokémon Go as a high level game, and the second article seems to corroborate the first article. So Heroes probably costs somewhere around $400,000 to $1,000,000 to develop, although the cost could also possibly be a bit higher or lower than that range since we cannot know for certain, but I think it is more likely to be higher if it does fall outside that range.

Since they do not mention ongoing maintenance, distribution, and further development costs, I assume those costs are just for the launch of the game and maybe including the cost for the first year of the games' life.

1 hour ago, SwordsDude said:

I we say look at this guy who has done 3 characters in feh heroes like the Lucina exalt bunny suit.

https://www.deviantart.com/tomiokajiro/gallery

https://twitter.com/tomioka2#_=_

in his twitter page the recommended commision price is 25000 yen wich is 230 dollars as a guide line.

I think it might be better if we get a developer's view on how much art work costs, since when artists advertise their services on social media, the cost is more likely to reflect on what the general public pays and not necessarily what developers and big companies pay.

I think $230 at minimum seems reasonable per artwork, so each character on Heroes costs at least $690 or $920 depending on whether we count the Special artwork and attack artwork as one or two pieces of work.

Edited February 18, 2020 by XRay

[Icelerate]

Do you think the FEH pass will increase the revenue, decrease the revenue or have no effect on the revenue? 

[XRay]

20 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

Do you think the FEH pass will increase the revenue, decrease the revenue or have no effect on the revenue? 

Generally, offering a new product will increase revenue, assuming you are covering all your costs and the product is sufficiently different in nature/price from your existing products. However, if the entire product line is facing a decline in sales, then introducing one or two new products might not be enough to offset the overall decline in revenue.

Personally, I am not too convinced that Feh Pass is enough to offset the decline in revenue. It might slow the decline, but I do not think it is enough to reverse it. There seems to be a pretty large push back from the free and low spending playerbase whom they are trying to target. The like/dislike ratio on YouTube does not really inspire much confidence that free players and low spenders would spend on the Pass. The price point also seems a little high in my opinion, and I think they could have offered several different tiers of subscriptions to make targeting free players and low spenders more effective. $10 might not seem a lot to most people, but it is a lot to free and low spending players, so I think it makes more sense to start with something really simple like a $3 two-week subscription for players who just want a particular Hero or to try out the service.

[SwordsDude]

12 hours ago, Icelerate said:

Do you think the FEH pass will increase the revenue, decrease the revenue or have no effect on the revenue? 

I think it will actually slightly decrease the revenue and it might  potentially speed up that process in the long run by a quite bit aswell. whale players are a fraction of the population. and your actually scaring allot of the smaller to medium spenders away. it will not decrease to much since the majority of the earnings are still from the small fraction of whale players. 

and let's not forget that the feh pass subscription + locking gameplay features and exclusive skins to that also kinda scares potential new players away who didnt play the game yet. every small medium or whale spender was a free player after all. so the feh pass is a dumb idea when you think about it. on paper it seems awesome if pretty much every player pays for the subscription while in reality it might make people quit the game including spenders and you'll gain less new players.

Whales will for sure buy the feh pass since it is a better deal than regular orb prices that's not even a contest for what you get. But it's a very small gain compared to the losses that they will get, considering that the smaller to medium spenders might stop spending and quit since they notice the cost of the game.

Mario kart tour is an excellent example in how a subscrption ruined the revenue. it has less than 100 million revenue and it had so much negative press thanks to the pass. mario kart tour killed potential whales and smaller spenders from the very start, worst way to start a brand new game. It would have probably made way more money withouth a subscription even animal crossing beats that game. it had way more downloads than FEH ever had They kinda killed potential whales or yearly smaller spenders. those spending can add up maybe more than the feh pass. that revenue might be lost thanks to the feh pass. since only the small% of whales will mostly buy the pass.

https://sensortower.com/blog/nintendo-revenue-one-billion

The trick to gacha games is that people spend a bit here and there and don't notice the costs what's 20$ here and there 6 to 10 times a year they forget about it or that 50$ bill for that one character people like freedom, that's the key to succes in gacha. Most people do not want to remind themselves of their purchases in a gacha game especially non whale players. the feh pass kinda remind them of those costs though your taking away some of that freedom especially when exclusive stuff is locked behind a pass, We also live in a world when you already have a ton of subscriptions, one for a single game is a but to much for allot of people even if they did spend a couple hundred $ on the game in single purchases with not problems at all. I even think a 1$ subscription will piss people off since they are forced to pay for the game every month. Most people don't like that.

IMO if they wanted to have a pass system, only provide it to the bigger whales in secret send those a message when they spend a certain amount like 500$. and don't lock certain features skins or characters to said service since free or low spending players like to have the illusion that they could gain any unit or gameplay feature withouth spending a single dime. also a ton of those people might spend a decent chunk at some point anyway when they missed some events or for a favourite character since such players do invest a ton of time into the game.

again you need to treat gacha players gently otherwise they'll go away. Now if you are to give a pass to a whale player. they will buy it since they already warmed up to the game to spend money. however allot of small to medium sized spenders are not yet warmed up to the idea of spending on a subscription.

You can compare it to the boiled frog syndrome

If you heat up the pan to fast the frog is scared and jumps away. but if you rise the temperature slowly you could literally boil them to death since they didnt notice the increase in the temperature.  

The smaller and medium spenders have not been boiled enough to appreciate the feh pass. so FEH cranked the temperature a bit to high losing a sizable chunk of those players in the process. A whale obviously used to those high cooking temperatures doesn't notice it a bit and likes the idea of the pass it's another great deal to spend money on.

 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by SwordsDude

[Endriu]

1 hour ago, SwordsDude said:

I think it will actually slightly decrease the revenue and it might  potentially speed up that process in the long run by a quite bit aswell. whale players are a fraction of the population. and your actually scaring allot of the smaller to medium spenders away. it will not decrease to much since the majority of the earnings are still from the small fraction of whale players. 

and let's not forget that the feh pass subscription + locking gameplay features and exclusive skins to that also kinda scares potential new players away who didnt play the game yet. every small medium or whale spender was a free player after all. so the feh pass is a dumb idea when you think about it. on paper it seems awesome if pretty much every player pays for the subscription while in reality it might make people quit the game including spenders and you'll gain less new players.

Whales will for sure buy the feh pass since it is a better deal than regular orb prices that's not even a contest for what you get. But it's a very small gain compared to the losses that they will get, considering that the smaller to medium spenders might stop spending and quit since they notice the cost of the game.

Mario kart tour is an excellent example in how a subscrption ruined the revenue. it has less than 100 million revenue and it had so much negative press thanks to the pass. mario kart tour killed potential whales and smaller spenders from the very start, worst way to start a brand new game. It would have probably made way more money withouth a subscription even animal crossing beats that game. it had way more downloads than FEH ever had They kinda killed potential whales or yearly smaller spenders. those spending can add up maybe more than the feh pass. that revenue might be lost thanks to the feh pass. since only the small% of whales will mostly buy the pass.

https://sensortower.com/blog/nintendo-revenue-one-billion

The trick to gacha games is that people spend a bit here and there and don't notice the costs what's 20$ here and there 6 to 10 times a year they forget about it or that 50$ bill for that one character people like freedom, that's the key to succes in gacha. Most people do not want to remind themselves of their purchases in a gacha game especially non whale players. the feh pass kinda remind them of those costs though your taking away some of that freedom especially when exclusive stuff is locked behind a pass, We also live in a world when you already have a ton of subscriptions, one for a single game is a but to much for allot of people even if they did spend a couple hundred $ on the game in single purchases with not problems at all. I even think a 1$ subscription will piss people off since they are forced to pay for the game every month. Most people don't like that.

IMO if they wanted to have a pass system, only provide it to the bigger whales in secret send those a message when they spend a certain amount like 500$. and don't lock certain features skins or characters to said service since free or low spending players like to have the illusion that they could gain any unit or gameplay feature withouth spending a single dime. also a ton of those people might spend a decent chunk at some point anyway when they missed some events or for a favourite character since such players do invest a ton of time into the game.

again you need to treat gacha players gently otherwise they'll go away. Now if you are to give a pass to a whale player. they will buy it since they already warmed up to the game to spend money. however allot of small to medium sized spenders are not yet warmed up to the idea of spending on a subscription.

You can compare it to the boiled frog syndrome

If you heat up the pan to fast the frog is scared and jumps away. but if you rise the temperature slowly you could literally boil them to death since they didnt notice the increase in the temperature.  

The smaller and medium spenders have not been boiled enough to appreciate the feh pass. so FEH cranked the temperature a bit to high losing a sizable chunk of those players in the process. A whale obviously used to those high cooking temperatures doesn't notice it a bit and likes the idea of the pass it's another great deal to spend money on.

 

 

Very well explained. Occasional spending is one but a subscrption is another. Most people will agree spending on gacha is literally wasting money and some people who do spend don't feel good about it. But as you said, people who spend occasionally can easily forget about it, whats $20 every now and then. 

A monthly subscription, however is something that adds up over time. I bought myself 2 physical brandnew switch games recently and paid exactly 2/3 of what the pass would cost me for a full year. I can resell those games if I like. Especially new players who arent hooked yet will think twice. The bad publicity feh received wont help either

[XRay]

2 hours ago, SwordsDude said:

I even think a 1$ subscription will piss people off since they are forced to pay for the game every month. Most people don't like that.

1 hour ago, Endriu said:

A monthly subscription, however is something that adds up over time. I bought myself 2 physical brandnew switch games recently and paid exactly 2/3 of what the pass would cost me for a full year. I can resell those games if I like. Especially new players who arent hooked yet will think twice. The bad publicity feh received wont help either

Netflix, World of Warcraft, Audible, etc. are all subscription based services and are all doing really well. You might not like the subscription based model, but plenty of people are fine with it.

Reselling is also irrelevant as you cannot resell anything from those subscriptions, and plenty of their customers are fine with that.

2 hours ago, SwordsDude said:

IMO if they wanted to have a pass system, only provide it to the bigger whales in secret send those a message when they spend a certain amount like 500$. and don't lock certain features skins or characters to said service since free or low spending players like to have the illusion that they could gain any unit or gameplay feature withouth spending a single dime. also a ton of those people might spend a decent chunk at some point anyway when they missed some events or for a favourite character since such players do invest a ton of time into the game.

That is too extreme in my opinion and it would not help with sales. Feh Pass needs to be advertised properly, not have it hidden away. If they just advertised Feh Pass non intrusively like they do with Orbs, it would not have annoyed so many players.

Edited February 18, 2020 by XRay

[Endriu]

12 minutes ago, XRay said:

Netflix, World of Warcraft, Audible, etc. are all subscription based services and are all doing really well. You might not like the subscription based model, but plenty of people are fine with it.

Reselling is also irrelevant as you cannot resell anything from those subscriptions, and plenty of their customers are fine with that.

 

Renting a flat is also subscribing in a way and people are fine with it. People who buy the feh pass also rent a flat. Logical conclusion: people who buy the feh pass are fine with it.

Ofc they are 🙂 !

Jokes aside, feh pass is a voluntary gift to IS unlike netflix where you absolutely must pay if you want to use the service. Wow, is a netflix subscription actually the same price as the feh pass? Only difference is a netflix sub can be shared among 5 participants. Not bad!

The feh pass should have been an offer people can't refuse. Like adding 100 orbs to it - I would have subscribed. It wouldn't have ruined Nintendo as we know by now they could afford it. Or make it like Netflix, no pass no game, separating the tares from the wheat.

 

[XRay]

3 minutes ago, Endriu said:

feh pass is a voluntary gift to IS unlike netflix where you absolutely must pay if you want to use the service.

Without the Feh Pass, you are not getting the 2 Heroes, Orbs, and other resource. You might not think it is worth it, but others do.

6 minutes ago, Endriu said:

Only difference is a netflix sub can be shared among 5 participants.

That is a nice idea for Feh Pass if they want to upsell it.

1 minute ago, Endriu said:

Like adding 100 orbs to it - I would have subscribed. It wouldn't have ruined Nintendo as we know by now they could afford it.

We do not know if they can afford it since we do not know what all their costs are, and that will certainly cannibalize their Orb revenue.

[SwordsDude]

1 hour ago, XRay said:

Netflix, World of Warcraft, Audible, etc. are all subscription based services and are all doing really well. You might not like the subscription based model, but plenty of people are fine with it.

That is too extreme in my opinion and it would not help with sales. Feh Pass needs to be advertised properly, not have it hidden away. If they just advertised Feh Pass non intrusively like they do with Orbs, it would not have annoyed so many players.

You can't compare a netflix subscription to a subscription for a gacha.

Netflix among the majority of people is considered a crazy good deal. it's cheaper than regular television actually

renting 1 or 2 movies online costs more than netflix wich gives you acces to pretty much everything except the super recent stuff. if you buy 1 single movie physical it's already more pricy than 1 month of netflix. and you can even share the account to make it dirt cheap. netflix is crazy value in the movie series sector

Netflix is literally the reason why regular tv is dying. Even cheap people will consider netflix as a great deal and it is. it is much cheaper than anything else in that sector

You can say that it is opinion based but in reality services like netflix dominate the movie markets atm among casuals worldwide.

The only reason why one would consider netflix to be a bad deal is if one does not like to watch movies series etc.

if where talking deluxe cable tv options. netflix killed it. all those services to rent single movies netflix killed it.

Word of warcraft sure I agree. however world of warcraft in it's hayday with 11 million active people has a hell lot more server costs than a mobile gacha. the monthly payments where needed.

server costs for mmorpg's are way more expensive to maintain. you need to be online at all times multiple people at the same time. registering moves and damage per second. It's more heavy than say monster hunter world or smash bros in wich you just have to connect a few players not connection millions of players at the same time. also in the old days wow did not have any micro transactions. no pay to win aspects aside from buying an account from somebody else.

server costs for world of warcraft costed 137000 $ a day

https://www.geek.com/games/world-of-warcraft-facts-put-in-perspective-1106111/

and for a game like pokemon go in an article wich I provided yesterday. server costs for a 1 year are only 150K you only need to transfer a bit of data after all. the online aspect does not need to be precise and is mostly single player.

and if you have a smaller playerbase like Fire emblem heroes those server costs would be allot less aswell.

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by SwordsDude

[Endriu]

24 minutes ago, XRay said:

Without the Feh Pass, you are not getting the 2 Heroes, Orbs, and other resource. You might not think it is worth it, but others do.

That is a nice idea for Feh Pass if they want to upsell it.

We do not know if they can afford it since we do not know what all their costs are, and that will certainly cannibalize their Orb revenue.

Ofc they can afford it! But they prefer this instead:

🙂

Edited February 18, 2020 by Endriu