Unnamed Mafia (anon) - Game Over

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

The "intent" behind them was obvious to me but I guess I need to spell it out.

- Changing reads suddenly. Scum intent: Gain favour with Grillmaster. Further scum intent: Abandoning looking at an unpopular lynch target and giving a good excuse to look elsewhere. Finally: Conference with scumbuddy changes minds.

I know that only scum stand to gain by buddying with townies (note that this is different than people with townreads on each other, as it comes across as more superficial), but I must ask why would IT buddy with Grillmaster of all people? Surely there are better options than someone who was a potential wagon for the first two days.

Reinbach, who do you have suspicions on now and does Dragonite's flip change anything?

My reads. Towniest to scummiest. No, wait, the other way around. Have a look.

FP >> The Grillmaster > Hot Wheels > IT > Eiki Shiki > Beethoven > Schtolteheim Reinbach III

As far as FP is concerned, Dragonite's flip changes nothing. People are putting far too much emphasis on his wagon hop, when I don't see the action as necessarily scummy. Sure, his reasoning was rather lackluster, but I can see a townie doing that under the assumption that bad reasoning > no reasoning (which mirrors his ED1 play). No, I suspect FP because his overall play has been rather lackluster (to be kind), and I get the impression that he's been blindly following others rather than attempting to make cases of his own (save for ED1, and we can all see how well that went for him). Grillmaster OTOH, is up so high because of the flip. I don't like his interactions with either of the flipped townies, as they had both initially suspected him. However, I still believe that after D1, his behavior has been more pro town which is why he's << FP...rather than just <. Look, it's very complicated. These are the people I aim to push during D3.

The actions of Hot Wheels and IT confuse me to no end. I can come up with several reasons for why they are town and why they are scum. So they are both null reads until I am convinced otherwise. And everyone else I'm reading as town as present, although the former two (Eiki Shiki, Beethoven) are obviously quite a bit weaker than my own read!

Because he's setting up a BP claim.

Elucidate me, why is this an action that only scum would do?

Again, real life issues limited my ability to post content during the last phase. Since I'm off the next couple days, I've got plenty of time to look for scum. I'm still thinking Grill as the likeliest scumspect, but I'm moreso looking into who's his buddy.

Prove yourself. Why is Grillmaster scummier than you? I will be rather upset if I get the answer to this in the last couple of hours of D3.

I'm still not liking how Grill zeroes in on one or two people per phase and seemingly ignores everyone else. Like, has he even gotten any reads left aside from thinking I'm scum? His going after me like that seems like lazy scumhunting more than anything.

*ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT* Wrong answer, pal (ha, if you can't tell, I am being facetious...about FP being my pal, that is). Focusing on your primary scumspects is a very pro town thing to do, since it gives better associative reads and pressures scum. And you're blatantly misrepping his reads, considering he spent a good chunk of D2 believing that Hot Wheels was scum based on his role. There is an argument to be had for that being lazy scumhunting, but saying that he doesn't have any reads apart from you is just plain wrong.

Reinbach could be potentially be posting very little on purpose to avoid scumslip; however, all this really makes me think is that he's likely a mafia newbie.

Coming from you, the thought that I am posting very little is laughable.

I'm still wary of his weird-ass ED1 claim, and the fact that Iketani flipped Miller makes me think even less of it. That's why I'm not liking him as a townie; his ED1 screams pre-emptive fakeclaim IMO.

I don't believe scum would be so eager to claim miller early on, especially considering that millers are often choice targets for vig shots. Hot Wheels' ED1 claim is arguably one of the towniest things he's done all game.

Regardless, for all of the people/dogs who haven't posted reads (I count four: Grillmaster, Hot Wheels, Eiki Shiki, Beethoven), please do so. Even one as wise as I is having trouble understanding your positions.

[All Might]

sdfasg I wanted to switch to fluffy but then things happened. if fluffy is mafia I will be mad.

I don't like beethoven's case against insane. having opinions isn't the same thing as not being reportery. there is nothing innately scummy about waffling. town are constantly trying to make sure their reads are correct and are actually much more likely to waffle than scum, who really only want to waffle after starting a wagon on someone or just before they get lynched. there's no scum intent in changing his mind on grillmaster mid-night 1. you say it might be to avoid suspicion from pushing at an unpopular lynch target, but nobody was really suspicious of him for that. saying "omg he voteparked grillmaster d1" only works if he was actually around in the thread. he left not long after that vote (which was barely-out-of-rvs) and then in his first post after he came back he switched to iketani. and it feels like you're digging for all the possible scum intent in his actions there, because first you talk about how he might want to avoid pushing grillmaster and then you talk about how he wanted to votepark grillmaster on d1. and where did he actually say that grillmaster was the towniest person? he just said that grillmaster was more likely to be town. he also said the same thing about me.

[All Might]

also I feel like beethoven's grillmaster case was possibly the most superficial of the ones on grillmaster, which is sad since grillmaster was also being attacked by people like dragonite and fluffy. yeah grillmaster's vote against me was rolespec and bad and it could have let him votepark there, but he didn't, both in that he unvoted (though that was after beethoven's initial vote) and in that he was still looking at other people. also I don't think that grillmaster ever actually made an attempt to hide the fact that his vote was purely rolespec.

[Aizen]

I pick an alignment and a role for my target to scan as. I'll probably just make my target (Hot Wheels) scan mafia driver over and over again unless that's not allowed or something.

Can you make it be Mafia Goon, please? The reason being that this is better if there is a town rolecop. (The role should be picked by someone else, basically.)

Well. That wasn't expected. Alright then, back to the drawing board.

I'm fully convinced Grill is scum now. Not sure who his scumbuddy is; after N1, I thought Hot Wheels might end up being this, but now I don't know if that's likely. Only other realistic option I can see is... Reinbach, maybe, but ehhhhhhhhhhh. I think he's more null at this point.

IT, what exactly have I done that makes you think I'm scum? The switch to Dragonite was, at the time, my attempt to prevent a mislynch since, after I'd re-read Dragonite's ISO. I thought that he would flip scum.

Clearly I've fucked up on my reads somewhere. I'll re-read Grill's ISO for a potential buddy, since at this point I'm about 99% positive he's scum.

So, what exactly makes you think I'm scum? And please don't respond with "I already said that back on D1". I'd like you to give current reasons that address my D2 play as well.

I think the scumteam is Fluffy + one of Beethoven & Eiki. If Fluffy is town, then it's 2 of (Beethoven+Eiki+Reinbach+Hot Wheels), but I do think Fluffy is scum (that votehop justification is super bad--this doesn't read as trying to prevent *his own* mislynch), and his playstyle seems so unsubtle that I'm going to guess he's studiously avoided talking about his scumbuddy (assuming he's scum).

As far as actual content goes, my opinion is something like this: (scummiest) FP >> Beethoven ~= Reinbach ~= Eiki > Hot Wheels >> IT (towniest).

I don't really know what to make of the players in my second tier, there. They're all reading as null to me, while I'm leaning town on Hot Wheels and strong town on IT.

Fluffy, what are your opinions on Beethoven, Reinbach, and Eiki?

[All Might]

grillmaster, why do you no longer think that two millers = scum?

if there is actually a town rolecop in addition to a tracker and most likely a cop, lol. I think it more likely that to make the town tailor not entirely useless, there is a mafia rolecop instead. but my role is entirely useless so who knows.

also that quote of fluffy's that grillmaster just quoted proves that fluffy is full of shit. he voted dragonite because he thought dragonite was scum and he wanted to prevent a mislynch... which would be okay, except the person he was previously voting was grillmaster, whom fluffy also thought was scum. pretty sure at this point that it was a hop to make the dragonite lynch more viable. also consider that the hop came like just after someone unvoted dragonite. panic move because he saw that unvote as making his own wagon more viable.

[Grace]

Things I realized: I forgot to mention whether No Lynch is an acceptable vote option

(it's not for this game)

There's 3 hours and 13 minutes left in the phase, and I am not going to be around again. If neither host is present, talk as much as you want. Actions can't be changed after deadline, however.

Edited November 23, 2013 by Manix

[Cú Chulainn]

I wish Schtolty posted more as I enjoy his posts.

[Rain Nijika]

All right, after reading through the thread and the ISOs, my current stance is as follows:

Beethoven: His content and cases look all right at first glance, but there's something bothering me about his stance on Insane Techniques. In D1 he gave reasons for why he thought IT was scum (along with Iketani and Grill), but after Iketani flipped he only focuses on talking about Grill up until he voted IT for his vote on me in late D2. So where did the suspicion on IT from D1 go until he voted me? The issues you pointed out with him after your vote, why were they not deserving of mention earlier in the phase or even on N1 if you still suspected him? Do you still suspect him now or are you all right with him?

Also, I didn't notice until now, but he actually talked very little about anyone who wasn't Iketani, Grill, or IT, and only gave reads on Dragonite and FP when the lynch was down to one of the two. He also voted Dragonite over FP. I'm finding it a bit scummy that he had avoided really giving any thoughts on D2 about really anyone aside from the person he was currently voting, up until lynch consolidation.

Insane Techniques: He actually vote hopped less than I had initially thought, even though the quick switch off Beethoven back to Grillmaster is kind of ;/. (That's probably what gave me the initial bad impression.) However, question: IT, you said that you feel Grillmaster is town for putting in the most effort in the game. Do you feel his content is townie too? Also, why was Dragonite scummier than FP when D2 started? I'm feeling better about you than when we started off in the day, but I would like an answer to the above two questions.

Reinbach: His responses seem all right and make sense enough, but he doesn't really seem to - push - lynches. He gives his case on people and places a vote, but I don't really see him actually pushing them, just mostly responding to people and stating his agreement or disagreement. It gives me the impression of someone who is doing all the right things to look townie but isn't actually proactive.

Grillmaster:

Can you make it be Mafia Goon, please? The reason being that this is better if there is a town rolecop. (The role should be picked by someone else, basically.)

I can do that, yeah.

I'm ... feeling a lot better about Grillmaster right now, to be honest, as weird as that may sound. I think what had given me a bad feeling about him in the first place was the initial Iketani vote, calling Hot Wheels scum because of second miller claim, and acting in a way I consider "reactionary". Looking closer at his posts, I can't say I see the scum intent in them. I'm still not 100% comfortable about him, but I can't find the scum intent in what he says. Also, I feel far worse about FP, and FP is tunneling Grill like a boss. I think lynching FP would tell us more about Grill than lynching Grill will tell us about FP.

Hot Wheels: Still not finding issues with him. He's all right with me. Prepare to get hit with a mafia goon suit.

I've already stated my dislike of Fluffy.

In a nutshell, I'm feeling better at Grill and IT, feeling less good about Beethoven and Reinbach, and FP is still the worst.

[Cú Chulainn]

Mafia Goon is a bad idea to pick. Suppose Hot Wheels is a Mafia Goon... A potential role cop would only see "Mafia Goon" as a result. Pick a role that is extremely unlikely to be in play instead and don't tell anyone what it is. A potential Role Cop will have to prove their worth by claiming the right result, and it prevents actual Mafia Goons from skipping by with a claim of "I was tailored."

I didn't post about Insane Techniques because my Early Day 1 suspicions are often loads of crap and I prefer to look at new stuff. Then he provides new stuff which has me worried, and I look back and remember the early Day 1 stuff is also Still There and contributes to my awkward feelings about him.

[Cú Chulainn]

Grillmaster suggesting it is actually something to keep in mind if he flips Scum.

[Rain Nijika]

Ugh ...

Okay, how about I just pick a role of my own choosing, one that I highly doubt will be in play? I can reveal it on the next day phase if people want me to and just pick a different role every night I continue to live. I'm still targeting the claimed miller, though.

[All Might]

why are you responding only to what eiki shiki says and not to what I'm saying? specifically about the grillmaster and insane cases?

[Cú Chulainn]

why are you responding only to what eiki shiki says and not to what I'm saying? specifically about the grillmaster and insane cases?

Because paragraphing.

having opinions isn't the same thing as not being reportery.

Insane Techniques posts http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=44441&p=2773895'>here. Of scummy and highly ironic note is that his first two lines are reports. His accusation of "reportery" further ignores any opinions she has made. What Insane Techniques does there is blindly ignore any opinions Shiki had formed to report on her actions. The only opinion he has posted about her is "reportery" (which is, in fact, also reportery, since he just says it and does nothing with it) and that he doesn't understand her lynch priorities. Neither of these qualities is exactly scummy.

In fact I'd go so far as to say his entire vote on Shiki lacks substance and is built out of sandcastles of reports.

there is nothing innately scummy about waffling.

Nor did I argue that. "It's not inherently scummy to change opinions; Townies can do that, too. But when your change of heart is simply based on amount of posts rather than the content, it must be scrutinised."

you say it might be to avoid suspicion from pushing at an unpopular lynch target

Did I say that? I can't find the specific line in question. Please quote it and link the post. The closest I can get is:

"- Changing reads suddenly. Scum intent: Gain favour with Grillmaster. Further scum intent: Abandoning looking at an unpopular lynch target and giving a good excuse to look elsewhere. Finally: Conference with scumbuddy changes minds."

Which doesn't say "to avoid suspicion from pushing at an unpopular lynch target." It says to justify finding a new lynch target without having to explain where his Grillmaster suspicions went. I meant mislynch target but in my excitement (dogs can't help enthusiasm) I did not elucidate on it properly. I'm currently scratching my head at it as well, but it still doesn't say what you think it said. Assuming that's the line. Please quote another if there is.

saying "omg he voteparked grillmaster d1" only works if he was actually around in the thread

It doesn't. If you have no suspicions but don't want to leave your vote hanging you can simply vote someone and leave it there until you return. Votepark still works since there was no real case nor attempt at a real case.

first you talk about how he might want to avoid pushing grillmaster and then you talk about how he wanted to votepark grillmaster on d1

Putting a vote down and then not talking about that person or scrutinising that person's votes does not equal pushing. Pushing is what Prims does when he votes someone and asks them questions, then presses on those answers or otherwise declares he's happy with them. Funnily enough http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=44441&page=4'>on this page Grillmaster NEVER actually responds to the post Insane Techniques voted him for. By the time Insane Techniques posts again, he claims to be unhappy with Grillmaster but doesn't press Grillmaster on deflecting actually responding to the post IT was so miffed about.

That's avoiding pushing him (he's not updating his case or putting any effort into it), while at the same time voteparking.

[Cú Chulainn]

With regards to Grillmaster:

I assume scum elected to Night Kill.

Grillmaster was either their target or the one carrying it out, according to my information.

I didn't consider him a high-priority target for the Night Kill.

[Rain Nijika]

Mmm ... I fail to see the value in scum choosing not to kill on N1. I also fail to see the logic in killing someone who had been under scrutiny as Grillmaster was on D1. (Nor was he doing himself any favors with miller spec.) If what I am assuming right now is correct, this will change things considerably.

[Aizen]

Uh, I'm surprised I was targeted too. Of course, you don't know everyone's role, so, assuming that scum tried to kill, you don't actually know who is responsible for stopping it.

[Cú Chulainn]

I find it funny you use that defence.

[Aizen]

Eiki, can you make someone scan as ITP, or only guilty/not guilty? The point here is the same as with choosing a rare role. I had some justification on choosing Goon--something about the case where someone is lying being the least harmful--but that would require *both* Hot Wheels and Eiki to be scum faking scummy roles, which seems really unlikely.

grillmaster, why do you no longer think that two millers = scum?

if there is actually a town rolecop in addition to a tracker and most likely a cop, lol. I think it more likely that to make the town tailor not entirely useless, there is a mafia rolecop instead. but my role is entirely useless so who knows.

also that quote of fluffy's that grillmaster just quoted proves that fluffy is full of shit. he voted dragonite because he thought dragonite was scum and he wanted to prevent a mislynch... which would be okay, except the person he was previously voting was grillmaster, whom fluffy also thought was scum. pretty sure at this point that it was a hop to make the dragonite lynch more viable. also consider that the hop came like just after someone unvoted dragonite. panic move because he saw that unvote as making his own wagon more viable.

Cause like.. ehhh. Miller Tracker + Miller + Town Compulsive Tailor + Cop (presumably) + rolecop (maybe) = a set of roles that kind of balance each other out and are only useful on some players. Also Beethoven made that point earlier about how a tracker is another town info role besides cop. But basically, the Town Compulsive Tailor claim made me realize that I was mad

Hold on Beethoven--if your information told you that I was either targeted for the kill or the one trying to carry it out (and I agree with you that I was unlikely for me to be targeted), then why did you wait until night to out that information? Like, from your point of view, you clearly thought that that made me scum, since as the second leading wagon I wouldn't have been nightkilled. Outing that at the top of D1 makes sense. Instead, you start off strong on me and then lessen your stance throughout the day, before suddenly outing this information now. Why?

I know I didn't perform the kill, so either I was the kill target or Beethoven's information is wrong. I can think of at least three ways that would happen. My point is, unless you get a night result, you don't actually know if your role was successful or even who you end up targeting.

[Rain Nijika]

Eiki, can you make someone scan as ITP, or only guilty/not guilty? The point here is the same as with choosing a rare role. I had some justification on choosing Goon--something about the case where someone is lying being the least harmful--but that would require *both* Hot Wheels and Eiki to be scum faking scummy roles, which seems really unlikely.

My role PM merely says that I have to provide an alignment and a role with my night action, so I suppose I could make someone scan as ITP if I chose to do so. However, if I'm not mistaken, deadline has already passed so I can't change my action tonight.

[Cú Chulainn]

Outing that at the top of D1 makes sense. Instead, you start off strong on me and then lessen your stance throughout the day, before suddenly outing this information now. Why?

Why make myself a night kill target?

If I had claimed this D2, we might've missed your request to nightspec and discuss the merits of abstaining from scum killing on N1.

[Estelle]

Insane Techniques posts here. Of scummy and highly ironic note is that his first two lines are reports. His accusation of "reportery" further ignores any opinions she has made. What Insane Techniques does there is blindly ignore any opinions Shiki had formed to report on her actions. The only opinion he has posted about her is "reportery" (which is, in fact, also reportery, since he just says it and does nothing with it) and that he doesn't understand her lynch priorities. Neither of these qualities is exactly scummy.

In fact I'd go so far as to say his entire vote on Shiki lacks substance and is built out of sandcastles of reports.

Holy shit you are literally not even reading my posts.

Really tired of this game. Can we just lynch Fluffy tomorrow and call it a day?

[Cú Chulainn]

so yeah i don't actually have a case beyond gut+PoE lmao

Can we just lynch Fluffy tomorrow and call it a day?

Pro Town 2013.

Holy shit you are literally not even reading my posts.

If I weren't I wouldn't even reference them. I can't read http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=44441&p=2773895'>this and draw any other conclusion.

"So Eiki currently suspects every single plausible lynch target." <- Report, there's no assessment of whether it's scummy or not.

"A lot of her suspicions are based on posts from Early Day 1 of all things. I dunno why people still care about me making a vote without explaining it in RVS. It's something for people to react to because it's "weird". Fluffy's vote is similarly meaningless at this stage of the game." <- Report. There's no assessment of whether it's scummy or not.

"Additionally, all of her non-ED1-related content contains a lot of reportery snippets and questions rather than "X is scum because Y". As an example, we know Dragonite dropped his Grill vote, why is Dragonite scummy for this and why is the new content not worth addressing?" <- Halfway to report with a question for clarification. There's no assessment of whether it's scummy or not.

"Furthermore I can't tell why she thinks Fluffy is the best lynch compared to everybody else and in the end it just looks like she's just trying to leave her options open. Claim doesn't affect my read one way or the other." <- Opinion, then an observation. Ends with null tell. No assessment whether she's scummy based on the first part, second part is as close as we get to "this is scummy" with the basic assumption that Townies don't need to leave options open.

Okay, since I'm apparently retarded, you have to explain to me what part of your post I wasn't reading when I claimed it was reportery.

[Cú Chulainn]

Post in question: http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=44441&p=2773895

[Aizen]

Why make myself a night kill target?

If I had claimed this D2, we might've missed your request to nightspec and discuss the merits of abstaining from scum killing on N1.

Uh, because it's always worth it for a townie to trade their life for a scum.

Also what I actually asked was "given that there was no kill N1, should we play differently?" At the time, assuming flipped miller implied town cop, I was trying to think through if (hypothetical) doc claim -> cop claim would give the cop enough time to get enough results to effectively end the game. But I realized that I was making a lot of assumptions and that something would probably go wrong.

Beethoven: since phase is apparently over and we can't change our actions, did you target the same person tonight as last night?

[Aizen]

Feel free to decline to answer the last question, but FMPOV you might be lying about info and so that question is because of that possibility