Persona 3 Mafia - Game Cancelled - Mass Destronktion

[Terrador]

FFM: ...well, I really don't know what to make of his reactions towards other players. I'll have to pore over the thread itself and see if there's any prodding going nowhere towards him, but I think his group of myself/Shinori/Mitsuki is decent evidence for me being town. Not great, but decent.

Refa: I love you, man, and I swear I'll get around to that one thing I promised I'd do, but it's time to hunt your scumbuddies. He makes a waffly case on Sky_Paladin here ending with the conclusion that Sky is more likely misguided town than scum; that seems to me like very much something Refa would do with his scumbuddies, and something that works fairly well in protecting scumbuddies in general: take a serious look at them, then call them a town-leaning read. Calls Sky "too active" here, which I don't think he really merited at that point? Could be a smokescreen, and... that's about it, on things Refa said that stick out to me. None of his other interactions seem like anything more than talking to me.

----

@Sky_Paladin: Time for some self-defense as far as those points go.

1: Favorable scum interaction? FFM lumped me in with two of his enemies, and Refa passed me over once. I liked his posting at one point, sure. But I'd say you chummed with Refa much more.

2: I didn't claim my shot because setup speculation wasn't anywhere near as valuable as having me alive, inconspicuous, and shooting (suspected) scum. Vig claim Day 2, with shots remaining? Are you out of your mind? Not without lynch pressure--which was coming, so I pre-empted it, with some success.

3: Alright, sure. Good point. On a Eury townflip, I might suspect me, too.

4: Eh, maybe GP's lying about her number of shots. Maybe I'm lying. Maybe scum have a bulletproof. It's too early to tell. I seem to remember my idea of SB's ability murdering him being outright dismissed by Elieson--if you can contradict this, feel free.

in Eury's case, this is mostly based off a previous game mind you. I find that she's playing similar to how she did in that game... and she was maf in that game.

On Kirsche's end, I find his going for GP (and still going at GP even now) suspicious. Mind you, not quite enough to lynch yet, hence why he's at the end of my list.

Have you played any games with Eury as town? Did she behave like this there?

[Terrador]

I thought SB was lying. And he was. That is not a misrep.

Re: Junko - I ditched Junko as a serious scum pick around the middle of day 1 when she had pages and pages of just nonsense. It would have been so easy to make a case on a newbie, and that is why we leave players like Junko around - we hope to catch scum snacking on babies. I can't seriously entertain any claim on Junko that doesn't start with a smoking gun of some sort. She's not in my priority list because I don't think there's any reasonable chance of her being scum.

Re: Euklyd as a vig target - because I thought he was very scummy yesterday, and if I had a vig shot and nothing better to do, I would have shot him also. Don't confuse Euklyd with Eury.

You're high on my priority list because:

1 - Scum interactions are favourable.

2 - You didn't claim your shot before being called on it, and I believe you wouldn't have ever claimed it on day 2 without being tracked, leaving us without some critical information.

3 - I buy Green Poet's analysis that SB likely checked you or Eury.

4 - I think it's unlikely town has this many vigshots.

I'm discounting the possibility that you are scum purely because I think scum would have preferred to shoot Green Poet over Euklyd.

Aw, shit, forgot to address your SB stuff.

You misrepresented him as not scumhunting, which is kind of a huge thing. And SB was lying, sure, but he made himself look less like an important Town. Just because you were right doesn't mean that was evident at the time of the first post, either. I'm gonna go check that again.

As for Junko: Ah, good point. He's low on my priority list today, but tomorrow, after things narrow down a bit, I could see him going on the chopping block.

[Terrador]

Just a heads-up: I did find the addendum to SB's flip.

##Request Vote Totals

[Elieson]

Elieson's "I totally Hijacked this game. Check the OP, it's mine now apparently" Votals

Sakyrabreeze64 (2): Green Poet, Junko Enoshima

Terrador (1): Bluedoom

Eurykins (1): Sky_Paladin

Green Poet (1): Kirsche

*???Bluedoom (1): Kopfjager???*

Voteless: Terrador, Eurykins, SakuraBreeze64

*Not sure if this was a real vote*

It is now Day 2. With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer and 4 to deadline lynch. Phase ends at 3:30 MST on April 9, 2014. So 5:30 EST, 4:30 CST. That's 41 Hours and a few minutes away.

---

##Light a fire under: Junko Enoshima

Please don't do this. I almost missed this when doing Votals earlier. Refer to votes at ##Vote, or I will assume you're not actually voting the person.

Kopfjager, you did it too.

Edited April 8, 2014 by Elieson

[Green Poet]

Looking through this thing that's becoming a Terra/Sky 1v1, and I'm seeing fair points on both sides. However...

Eurykins:

She's been really obviously looking for scum all game, making lots of posts constructing and deconstructing cases, as is appropriate. I can't even try to link particular posts... just... no. I can't. It's too much good stuff. She's posting wall after wall after wall, and I've yet to find anything I object to.

Eury isn't cleared in my book, but I've been given absolutely zero reason to suspect that she's anti-town. WAY too public for someone with any reason to hide.

3: Alright, sure. Good point. On a Eury townflip, I might suspect me, too.

With these, you're conceding that scum is all but guaranteed to exist between yourself and Eury, and then stating your townread on Eury. I don't think this is a slip, but it is certainly a contradiction. Eury's reaction to my claim still doesn't sit well with me, and I wouldn't be terribly opposed to a lynch of either Eury and Terra right now.

And again, I find the chance that town has one vig far more likely than two.

4: Eh, maybe GP's lying about her number of shots. Maybe I'm lying. Maybe scum have a bulletproof. It's too early to tell.

Actually, this makes me consider:

Scum!Terrador, being a generally approved townie D1, could carry out the NK against Euk N1, claim odd-nightvig D2 so that he can survive another day, let someone else carry out the N2 nightkill, and kill another townie N3. However, this means that scum!Terrador doesn't actually have a lethal role, and we have two mafia killers plus a factional kill on our hands.

Town!Terrador, however, still feels unlikely to me, as that would give town 2 1/2 kills per day/night phase...

As for Junko:

The contradiction about being ignorance about night actions while later claiming to have submitted a night action still stands.

A plausible explanation is that scum!Junko was told to fakeclaim doc so as to draw out a doc CC. This would be passable because he would come under the least fire for early claiming than any of his experienced scumbuddies

If a doc does CCs Junko later down the line, I would advise initiating massclaim, as I see no power roles left that could be town-aligned.

Now, about Breezy. It's occurred to me that it might be the case that he's new to this game, and thus sheeped a Refa case and preemptively cleared a lot of people he objectively couldn't have, because of inexperience. Can anyone confirm how many games he's played, or offer meta on him?

kirsche = Breezy > Eury > Terra > Sky = Junko = Marth. Sky's fallen in my priority because his contributions on this page feel fairly well-reasoned and townie to me, and suffice to say I agree with him in some parts.

[Green Poet]

As for Junko:

The contradiction about being ignorant about night actions while later claiming to have submitted a night action still stands.

Typo. Sorry, can't help myself.

[Terrador]

@Green_Poet: To be honest, I wasn't entirely sold on the "narrowed down to Eury/Terra" bit, but I must admit that I've been re-evaluating my townread on Eurykins over the past couple of hours. She was active before the vote swapping (and therefore eligible for being that swapper), the process of elimination for SB's kill looks solid, and I don't suspect that you're a townie ITP (which has been an option I've been entertaining)...

I still think Sky is real scummy, and I'm warming to the possibility of a Eury lynch. It goes against my gut, but frankly, I don't trust that for shit. I was never a good psychoanalyst.

...I never did a formal lynch priority, did I?

Sky_Paladin > Eurykins > Junko > Breezy >> kirsche > Marth >>> Green Poet > Wen.

[Sky_Paladin]

How do you possibly have me at a higher lynch priority than Eurykins if 'the process of elimination for SB's kill looks solid'?

Like I don't think that both you and Eury are scum but it really looks like you're trying to stretch it here.

[Terrador]

How do you possibly have me at a higher lynch priority than Eurykins if 'the process of elimination for SB's kill looks solid'?

Like I don't think that both you and Eury are scum but it really looks like you're trying to stretch it here.

Frankly, because I'd weight your behavior more than the deduction edge that Eury's case has on you. It's a rather close-run thing, though.

[Green Poet]

That reminds me, I never explicitly put together a Eury case beyond SB target spec.

[spoiler=Eury case]

A lot of my suspicion comes from her vote on me, and her reaction to my claim. Up until that point, I was fairly confident in my townread of her, and I thought she likewise had a townread on me as well.

This discusses my confirmation of Wen's action in a doubtful light, and in the same post as her vote on me, as though it constitutes a reason to vote me. Having suspicions towards someone because they have an unrefuted claim on someone else's action doesn't strike me as particularly townie.

She also suggests that SB targeted Euk or Mitsuki, which I'd stated was unlikely due to the fact that the entire SB speculation revolves around the assumption that he got himself killed through targeting scum. This is far more likely than there being three mafia kills or two kills and one town!Terra, which would have to be the case if SB went for either of those two, and it feels like this is more selective reasoning than an oversight on Eury's part.

She seems to suspect me for waving away the possibility that I'm scum and was SB's target, thought I'd explained that I cleared myself along with the other three of SB's D1 scumreads. It's not an exclusive argument, and again, seems biased.

Afterwards, her three posts following my claim focus more on Shinori than I find is reasonable. If I claim to have killed FFM, and no daySKs exist, then there's no ambiguity to my role, so why does my reasoning behind kill Shinori actually matter anymore? It's not as though I could possibly have investigation results on Shinori or something like that, so her continued argumentation over Shinori being a poor kill is concerning to me.

All this being said, I don't think her reactions have been as telling as those of someone like kirsche. I just think that her vote on me was relatively unprompted and too sudden of a departure from her original townread on me, and that her insistence on discussing Shinori seems like an attempt to contest my alignment when there was no reason to.

There are better lynch targets today imo, though Eury may be the most viable if Sky and Terra come to agree.

[Sky_Paladin]

My 'extra dirt' on Eury is that she floated the idea of not lynching Refa, as well as giving him a 'nullish, probably town' clear at #306.

I am feeling increasingly like Terra is scum though but maybe it's just omgus feeling. Re-reading the whole game, it seemed like Terra put in a lot of effort and made many good posts, but her case on me seems really weak and forced. So my natural thought is she is trying to protect somebody; but it doesn't make sense.

Anyway I think Terra is probably town because scum could have claimed something like "I was tracking/checking/etcetera" but Terra actually said "Yeah it was my hit" and claimed along with it, despite knowing a high chance of counterclaim if she was scum. I mean what if there was a, I don't know, a jack of all trades or something with a hit up their sleeve. A one shot vig and a day vig and an odd-day vig, is that even possible?

[Wen Yang]

Not sure on the possibility of such a setup, but I think Terra is town IMO. For scum to claim Vig would have been risky as all hell given that we know from day 1 that there was a vig running around who just shot a mafia right off the bat. Given that GP has now claimed, I'd say (and agree with her) that Terrador is at least, convincing enough that he didn't end up eating a vigshot so far.

On my own end I won't mind a Bluedoom or Eury Lynch either.

[Bluedoom]

GP what do you think of the vote influencer switching the votals to Breezy D1?

[Green Poet]

GP what do you think of the vote influencer switching the votals to Breezy D1?

No one would vote Breezy naturally at that time, so it's possible that scum!Breezy put votes on himself so as to make himself seem innocent. His thought on it is that it's possibly a reaction test or artificial prodvote to him, ceding that he's a generally inactive player, which in itself isn't all that telling.

Then again, it's equally possible that the influencer isn't Breezy, just wanted to get SB lynched, and additionally chose to randomly throw Breezy some votes to try and throw us off-track.

Why do you ask this, though, Marth? What are your thoughts?

[Eurykins]

People need to stop feeding in ranked games on League... T_T;;

Alrighty, thoughts and shinanegans to be listed:

- Junko: (OhmahgodtheamountofISOpagestoreadthrough. @_@;; )

- Day 3 overall has been quite the rollercoaster ride. Page 38 was a mess of misunderstanding, which can be nailed down to simple newbie gameplay.

- This didn't exactly do a whole lot for us.

- This felt strange to say/read, even as a doc. (I wouldn't consider protecting someone and ensuring their survival 'til as long as he lived as a 'waste of time', but that's just me.)

- This still feels crazy scattered-brained or otherwise panicky sort of vibes.

- Seems oddly up front and almost commanding to Bluedoom here (and the reason for not voting Bluedoom here is...what exactly? o_O?)

- Logic put forth to explain his reaction to Shinori's death sounds peculiar in the sense of "still a waste of time". (I agree that perhaps the vig shot shouldn't have been taken so soon, but having ensured someone even survived a night phase to see the next day phase is generally noted as a successful protection used, unless he's also implying that he has a limited number of shots.)

- Not quite sure what to make of the assertions/demands for Blue to defend himself here; there was a claim that there was some sort of case, when.... I fail to see one?

- Another case of completely spazzing out in a post, imo. Lots of assumptions/over-generalizations and otherwise trying to justify half-demanding information from Bluedoom when there was little to no basis for doing so.

- All in all: Chaotic gameplay. Claimed Doc role, not sure if I fully trust it. However, either this is some pro effort in seeming quite.... newbie at the game (IE. Page 38 content regarding profile stalking), or legit, and I'm not sure if newbie!scum would risk flailing this much in the open.

- Kirsche:

- This post felt like it had very townie vibes/genuine town!Kirsche feeling to it.

- Regarding this Post: Technically Shinori was posting a wall of cases/thoughts (in that tiny edited post following him getting shot) right as he died (and had to quickly edit out the text). So, given his cop status and last night phase, it's anyone's guess what he learned last night, along with what he was putting forth in terms of reads.

- His logic here (in the time in which it was posted) seemed solid to me.

- All in all: Solid logic, and gameplay hasn't been bad. Leaning townish.

- Bluedoom:

- Logic here seemed reasonable.

- This post = Martyr claim + the role crumbling that came with it. If the role claim is true, then it would stand to solidify the fact that SB did kill himself last night (as opposed to being shot by someone). However... kinda seemed randomly prompted/claimed, no? o.O?

- Overall: Peculiar timing/maybe unnecessary claim.... I don't think it's necessarily scummy, but it makes me a bit more confused in terms of trying to read his gameplay? Unable to really place him atm.

- Kop/Wen: (GeezalmostasmanypagesasJunko...)

- This led to us finding out about Terrador's Odd-night Vig role.

- Good ideas are good.

- Confirmation of OC with GP prior and post shooting, as well as being townie.

- Overall: If he flips scum, this game is truly screwed. (AKA. Solid townie, unless either he or GP is lying about their alignment, which I doubt.)

- Sky_Paladin:

- This post made me giggle slightly (that Japanese thrown in there, lol...); Realtalk: Not much to be seen/had, but also nothing bad seen in it.

- This puts forth quite a bit of effort, imo, though the fact that I was looking at Wen AND Refa during the time of Refa's lynch in late D1 (and using that as a case against me?), I can't say I'm overly fond of.

- All in all: Though I didn't care at all for his D1 posting/actions, he's at least stepped up his gameplay in D2, though still nowhere near cleared in my books. Still kinda grimy imo.

- Terrador: (Ohmanpagesandmoarpages)

- Logic behind shooting Euklyd was laid out clear enough, (even if I'm not certain by the information displayed that Euklyd was the target of choice, but what's done is done.)

- Claims Odd-Night Vig.

- This led to the slapfight between Terra/Shinori, which resulted in GP shooting Shinori (on the basis of aggression seeming scummy). Perhaps it was mostly clash of personalities in the responses, but not a whole lot of progress came from the exchange I felt.

- Interesting reaction to Junko's doc claim.

- This wall post seems decent to me- fairly thorough with the logic/thought process.

- The last sentence/bolded line in this post makes me wonder a bit; I'm not sure if scum!Terrador would outwardly admit that his actions could be labeled as questionable or not.

- ...You wound me here, Terrador... I thought we had something going... I thought you trusted me... ;____;'' My heart, it hurts. </3

- Realtalk/All in all: Prior to the GP claim of being an infinite-shot Day vig, I didn't see much reason to question most of Terrador's gameplay/vibes. However, the thought of town having both an infinite shot day vig AND an odd-night vig? Seems INSANELY strong. So as a result, I can't stand 100% sure on a townie read/clear on Terrador (unless this game is just that crazy to have these all of these claims be accurate). :(

- Green Poet:

- Rather obscure/vague manner of opening the day phase with this post.

- Confirmed Wen's night action of tracking Terrador.

- Lol, dat self-complimentarypost regarding the day vig. =P

- Somehow, I honestly saw this post (and the time of Shinori's death) a pretty big set up to let Terrador take the fall for Shinori's death. (The post/question in itself seemed to beckon Terrador's priorities of where Shinori was given the arguments happening, and vigging Shinori right AFTER Terrador posted up the vote/wall didn't make matters a whole lot better.)

- WRT this post: I doubt Shinori was tailored. Also, the fact that he spent the majority of the time (right before he got shot by you) arguing with you and Terrador, he probably didn't have the time to get his information out. In addition, the edited post by him following his death, I'm guessing, actually HAD information that had to be removed ASAP when he realized he just got shot/killed (since he can't post game info once you're dead, as say the rules).

- Honestly still confused about the sudden claim. Yes, I had a post/vote put up against you in terms of wanting to know some answers, but compared to earlier/at the start of the day phase (in which you seemed to purposely and utterly refuse to reveal anything to us), you just... kinda vomited it all out, under no real danger/pressure from multiple people. That... was kinda weird to me.

- I agree with the notion here that Blue's claim did seem to... come out of the blue? (that was bad, sorry, lol)

- WRT this:

1. As stated earlier, the vote was me prodding you for answers (regarding the inconsistencies/constant vague answers you kept giving us early in the day phase).

2. From the start of the day phase, I've expressed concerns/thoughts regarding the fact that you weren't saying much to any of us, while trying to get us to divulge more information. I had repeated posts regarding a change in vibes coming from you, so from what I could tell, it wasn't a 'relatively unprompted and too sudden of a departure from her original townread on (you)" when you've been pinging me since the start of the day phase. [i also only said that you were dropping some worrisome vibes, and having been a strong townie read for me prior, I naturally became concerned over the change I was feeling/sensing.]

3. ^ Also explains why my vote was removed, based on the fact that you chose to fill us in on what exactly was going on (what you were being so obscure with and whatnot).

- All in all: See Wen/Kop. Pretty much sold as townie unless one/both are lying to us.

- SakuraBreeze64: (...thelackofpages-whatachange)

- Why so sick? :(

- Has been the only meaningful post since this Day phase started, I think?

- All in all: ...The others were ridiculous amounts of linking/quoting... you're like the polar opposite. So little information offered; null leaning scum (if this is scum!lurking tactics at hand).

[Ohmahgawd,theamountoflinks...]

Sky_Paladin > Breeze > Terrador = Junko = Bluedoom >> GP = Wen

##Vote: Sky_Paladin

And with this- I must be off to sleep. 8am swim class op. x_x;;

(I swear to god, these links better post or I'm going to face-desk really hard... >_>")

[Green Poet]

I have this terrible feeling in the back of my mind that all the people posting walls are actually just town arguing with each other in circles and all the less active people are scum waiting for us to kill each other off ugh

Looked over Eury's reads briefly, and I've only got two comments so far.

1. Analysis of Junko seems solid. But where is he now? I feel like he's posted extremely little D2, despite being easily the most frequent poster D1.

2. Maybe my own opinion is biased because of his vote on me, but I'm surprised that kirsche is a townread to you. Is there anyone other than Junko who believes kirsche is likely scum?

@everyone, we really need to put more pressure on Breezy :/

[Zkirsche]

No and that's because I'm town, GP ;/

##Unvote Already said I thought that dayvig was town based on role/setupspec.

##Vote:Sky On to my 4th string scumread now yayyyy

Eury's biggest scumread is someone who is "kinda grimy" because of SB shenanigans and a dislike to his case against her.

[Sky_Paladin]

The reason I ask is because I am a jack of all trades with a vig shot, and I wanted to delay claiming until I could see where scum where voting.

I'm at L-1 yes?

More to come.

[Sky_Paladin]

Kirche, did you mean to vote for me or did you intend to vote for Eury? Kind of weird post there, that's all.

[Wen Yang]

...

Three Vigs?

Ok that's way too many one way or another. One of these has got to be a liar, and personally, IMO GP is probably the most cleared one of the three.

[Sky_Paladin]

I mean Eury put out a great post but then voted for me because "kind of grimy". I doubt that both Terra and Eury are scum, but that's kind of how it's looking right now.

[Sky_Paladin]

I will not say if I have shot or not (I have stated several times that if I had a vig shot I would have shot Euklyd) but if I have a shot I'll happily kill anybody Green Poet asks for. I am about to get on a bus. See you in six hours :)

[Wen Yang]

Well, the way I see it.

There are three guys claiming Vig. Only one of which are reasonably cleared (GP).

If you have a shot, go ahead and shoot Terrador. If he flips town, we lynch you. :3

[Junk]

meh not posting much because I don't exactly feel to well about myself in this game.

Anyways I am starting to have doubts about kirsche due to his reaction of Shinori getting killed. He seemed pissed off and not surprised. He certainly showed how pissed he was. I doubt scum kirsche would have done that reaction. I want to put pressure on Breezy but forcing him to post when he is sick doesn't really make me feel that good. Sky Paladin's case against Eurykins is just not too good. It feels more like a guess. He uses alright logic but I it clears a few people but it just offers some assumption that it must be eurykins because she is the only one left in his(SB) list of townies. Still I don't think warrants a lynch just yet. In my honest opinion he(SB) might have tried to target someone who wasn't really talking (Breezy). We had not gathered any info on Breezy so far and basically had no idea of his alignment. SB with a one and one could help. But honestly Eury your case I don't feel is much better than Sky's either. He might have played badly during ED1 but it doesn't mean it is scum. And while I will admit his case against you is not exactly the best it still does not warrant a lynch. Sky Paladin seems to certainly have been putting a lot more effort. But he is right on Eury not wanting to lynch Refa. Refa also attempted to suspect Sky Paladin in a few posts before revealing to be scum. But he did vote for Breezy at one point but it looked sarcastic. Breezy is my main focus right now. I am kind of tired so I will try to add thoughts on terrador later.

So so far it is Breezy>Eurykins=Sky Paladin

(Am I analyzing better?)

[Junk]

Meant to say terrador and Paladins argument I will analyze more.