Kay Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Okay, I'm back. This will take some time to make sense of, it looks like, so don't expect much from me right away. Let me get this straight, Clipsey is claiming alliance cop with a guilty on Kaoz, Kaoz is claiming Copier, and Nightmare softclaimed cop but isn't? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Okay, I'm back. This will take some time to make sense of, it looks like, so don't expect much from me right away. Let me get this straight, Clipsey is claiming alliance cop with a guilty on Kaoz, Kaoz is claiming Copier, and Nightmare softclaimed cop but isn't? As far as I understand, yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Copier; so you're saying you're Town Copier? Okay first off, you agree that your role is unique and original, yes? If not, please point me to a source that has this idea. If yes, please note that of the three dead so far, none of them have original ideas for roles (tracker, mayor, bulletproof) - of course, this isn't great proof, and Nagflar seems like a Bastard moderator, but just throwing out the idea to the public. And supposedly if this is your real role, perhaps you should take more caution in using it - it seems like a very arbitrary, and useless role; how does it benefit town? You tell me. If you targeted a vigilante (which I reaffirm, very likely does not exist in this game), they would kill them selves, yes? It also doesn't seem very town-like, since it blocks the role? So you're essentially a role-blocker, or just a redirector to the original user? Since you are saying that it didn't fulfill these "certain conditions", then you might think that it only works on mafia...? :O Or what? Again, I reiterate, how does your role benefit town / how is it reputable? There are roles that are similar to that, at least. In MoTG Snike had a role that redirected people to themselves. Nexus redirects anything targeting it to a random player. Plus, most games have a mix of very standard roles and more original ones, there's nothing strange about that. Vigilante is the only role that it would really harm much, I think. Doctors would protect themselves, which definitely isn't that bad. Inspector variants can be verified. Mafia could end up killing themselves. Generally, town roles are less likely to cause harm, no? So Kaoz's role would hurt the mafia more, since they would be more likely to have hostile roles. Sounds pro-town enough, I'd say. You are the Serial Killer/some form of Cop. You inspected Core N1 and killed him N2. Your strategy was to inspect people until you find a mafia, then clear yourself that way, hoping that the town doesn't have a Cop on their own (they do though... maybe it's me?). You kept 13th around as "safe lynch" (notice how you were always suspicious of him, but then made the lynch take another direction for questionable reasons). Kaoz, where are you getting this from? Just a theory explaining what Clipsey might have been doing, or do you have any kind of solid information backing this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's just a theory, I said I wanted to entertain myself a bit after all. If you wanted to go through with it, you could take a look at this post... Your theory relies on TWO failed mafia kills Seeing as my theory relies on THREE failed kills (Mafia+SK N1, Mafia or SK N2), I have to wonder whether it was just a mistake on her part or whether she knows something else... just some food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Couldn't the mafia/wolf have crossfired on both nights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 By which I mean, they picked the same target. Not actually having shot each other. =/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Of course that's a possibility, but it doesn't really matter for what I said. Oh also, wasn't it theorized that Sho's target is a member of the mafia? That's more going back to the numbers, but in combination with the Mayor, it'd allow for 2 mislynches in a 8/4/2 if he's supposed to side with the town. 2 Mislynches isn't that implausible, so you might not wanna discard the possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hmm since you guys aren't doing anything important, I might as well ask something... I mentioned THAT a few times before... do you think it exists or do you think I'm bluffing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strawman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Err, what? If it's because of Rule 7, I would say it's because you're a miller (ASSUMING you're town). And if that's the case, why didn't you claim earlier? Also, think about it - Mafia Alignment Checker in a 1-mafia game is essentially a useless role, and with the numbers there are, mafia coming up with a fake guilty is unrealistic, considering how it would result in eclipse's lynch on Day 4 and overall be a net loss to the mafia. I'm going to go ahead and say I agree with this. Eclipse being lying mafia makes little to no sense and definitely seems like more risk than its worth. Besides being the day 4 lynch it could also open her up to the supposed vig or the real cop, things that mafia want to try and avoid. You aren't considering the possibility of Framer or not sane Cop, and are assuming numbers that we cannot proove. As for the faking part, maybe they got vary when I doubted her and thought I'd have some solid way to support it, resulting in them trying to get the first strike. With that being said, I still cannot agree with my lynch (how unexpected, right?)... this may sound arrogant, but I think it's fair to say that I'm one of the better and more active players in this game (I know I wasn't as active the past weekend, but APEX), so lynching me would cause quite a bit of damage on that end, and it'd be a shame if that happened because eclipse's results were manipulated or faked. As such, I hope we can work out a way for me to proove my innocence, maybe another inspection in combination with a watcher or something along those lines... I'm not suggesting that we out everyone's role of course, but possibly work out a number of scenarios of which one is likely to be effective. The thing is there is less evidence of framer than there is saying you're mafia. And if we lynch you we would then learn if Eclipse is telling the truth and if she isn't we learn that there might be a framer or that she is insane etc. At this point we would gain the most information from going ahead and lynching you and a lot of that information would really clear up a lot of the assumptions and theories we are making now. Also...thats not a very convincing argument. Just because you are a good player doesn't mean we shouldn't lynch you when someone gets a guilty on you. Hmm since you guys aren't doing anything important, I might as well ask something... I mentioned THAT a few times before... do you think it exists or do you think I'm bluffing? Are you referring to this? Because tbh I don't have any clue what you are talking about. Now for the kills... do I have to explain two failed kills? I wouldn't be so sure, because, what if there was no chance for two kills... I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Also...thats not a very convincing argument. Just because you are a good player doesn't mean we shouldn't lynch you when someone gets a guilty on you. If you want to lose that badly, go ahead. Are you referring to this? Because tbh I don't have any clue what you are talking about. Maybe? It should be fairly obvious given that I posted it in caps several times throughout the day and you can easily track it back. Really, it's not so much about the exact statement, but rather whether you believe there is something or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Why are we going on about 8/4/2? Didn't I point out earlier that such a thing is an extremely bastard setup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 8:4:2 would be a horrible setup IMO. . . and where is the activity in this thread? We do have a day and then some hours left, though, but we're not making the best use of it - and I'm not helping I guess. I'm far too tired to respond now, more helpfulness to come in the later days~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 5 hours, 37 minutes left... Why are we going on about 8/4/2? Didn't I point out earlier that such a thing is an extremely bastard setup? Didn't you also neglect to take into account the possibility of one of the independent's targets being mafia (in other words he'd side with the town), as well as the Mayor, which would bring that variant of 8/4/2 pretty close to a 9/3/2 regarding mislynches? Not to mention that it outright says in the OP that this isn't perfectly balanced... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strawman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That was a pitiful amount of activity while I was away since my last post lol. And pretty unexpected too. And only 5 hours left? ##Vote: Kaoz Your defense has been anything but convincing, we will gain a lot of info by lynching you, and Eclipse telling the truth just makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1. There's a difference between "perfect balance" and "this is almost as bad as having a hidden inspector with a free kill". 8/4/2 reeks of the latter. 2. I'll get to the summary after I beat up Lyn's ugly uncle in a LHM/HNM draft I'm doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hahaha no point in hiding anymore I guess... I claim mafia. Now... I remember someone saying my theory from earlier relies on me being mafia... in other words, that condition is fulfilled and I know something you people will most likely not be able to figure out... I could be convinced to tell you if I get to live a little longer...... ultimately, it's your decision though hahahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Your theory holds no water because I inspected you on N2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That doesn't affect my theory at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.f.k.a. Howard Hughes Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well now were getting somewhere. You wouldn't happen to have anything about Odin to say Kaoz? I like bargains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Your theory is that I inspected on N1 and killed N2. This is impossible, because I inspected on N2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well now were getting somewhere. You wouldn't happen to have anything about Odin to say Kaoz? I like bargains I fear not. Your theory is that I inspected on N1 and killed N2. This is impossible, because I inspected on N2. Oh but you didn't inspect on N1? Didn't you say you cleared someone? I'm saying that you inspected Core N1 and me N2. It's completly possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Then that means I didn't kill Core on N2. And WHY would I be ragging on Core for a potential lynch if he was my clear? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How does that mean you didn't kill Core N2? Why wouldn't you be able to inspect and shoot during the same night? Furthermore, you obviously wanted to lynch him because you knew he could see you visiting two targets, and when one of those gets killed, there's really not a whole lot you can do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclipse Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Because that doesn't explain why there were no deaths on N1. You yourself said that the odds of two negated kills were extremely low. In short, your theory makes no sense, even if I were to down the two bottles of sake in my pantry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaoz Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What you said doesn't refute the possibility either. There probably are two BPVs, as well as a doctor and possibly a role blocker, my numbers only assumed a doc. Really, the probability of two kills failing isn't that small.... or at least not small enough to be neglected... although I really have to wonder why you're always asking me to explain two failed kills when everyone would normally ask for three... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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