dragonlordsd

Interesting... well, that's one patch of good news.

That would be... unfortunate. 26-28 att is not what I was hoping for.

I'm only reporting what they've said. I am also disappointed by no GHB this month. But yeah, at least we'll have some idea of what he'll be like when he shows up in the story missions. On discussing the actual units, Elinicia herself is a big question mark, since it's entirely possible she'll be statistically like Caeda: 25 att/ 36 spd. Something along those lines. That would only give her 36 attack with Amiti, (42 with death blow) basically making her a second Olwen (awesome brave weapon, very low attack) What worries me is flier formation. That will be NASTY.

Just pointing this out, this confirms the leak that was posted two weeks ago was real. Here's the full timeline: One month ago, a guy posted on Reddit two things: 1. There would be a "mini-tempest trial" in September 2. There would be a "Narcian + whitewings" event. Everyone blew him off at first, but then both of those predictions came true. Then, two weeks ago, he predicted the following: 1. There would be a Path of Radiance banner, featuring Elincia, Oscar, and Nephenee 2. The Black Knight is the full tempest trial reward 3. The next GHB will be Alvis, in October 4. There will be an FE4 banner in October 5. L'archel is not coming for "at least 2 more months" In fact, I posted these predictions in the mega thread two weeks ago. Now, this still isn't confirmed, but this guy has hit 3 for 3 so far, so I think it's safe to say this leak may be legit.

There may be other characters on the banner, idk. None of this is confirmed, though, just the source has been right before. I'd say keep it in the back of your mind, and if you really want those characters start saving. The banner feels like a pretty obvious prediction, with a PoR tt, they'd have to do some banner for it.

Just mentioning this for those interested, there's a rumored leak that states the following: 1. Black Knight will be the full Tempest Trial Reward 2. Path of Radiance banner is coming with Nephenee, Elincia, and Oscar 3. There will be a FE4 banner in October 4. There will be an Alvis GHB None of this is confirmed, but the source of the leak correctly predicted a "mini-tempest trial" and narcian + white wings banner in the past.

I think this is the attitude I'm going to take. Free pick Lyn, go for Lucina or Roy, and if I get Ike, that's still a good thing.

Well, I did use the word "may" in the title, as all of this is just speculation right now, but idk, may have to change it. The hard part that I see is how exactly to stack skills on him. He doesn't have a distant counter weapon, so he'd have to drop his unique A skill to run that (although DC may be totally irrelevant with the rise of Bow!Lyn, so he may not even want it), but the B slot is tricky. That's really the question for me: If he runs quick riposte, he'll lose his ability to negate Horse Buffs, and may still get wrecked by Reinhardt, even with the Urvans effect (+12 attack is not something to take lightly, and he only has 20 res) If he doesn't run quick riposte, he's safe from horse and flier buffs, but still risks getting wrecked in straight up duels. (New Roy naturally doubles him and hits like a truck with blazing durandal) If Urvans definitely worked on ALL follow up attacks, all the time, he'd be a lot safer, but without it, I fear he won't hit nearly hard enough.

True. I guess I should contextualize what I mean by "bad:" I don't mean "bad" like, "Odin is just bad" I mean "bad" like, "Seriously, when was the last time anyone saw Takumi in the arena?" That kind of "bad." @NekoKnightThis is very true, my main concern is that the meta will shift heavily away from Rein in favor of Bow!Lyn

So, they've announced the stat totals for the CYL units, and Ike's are... less than spectacular. In fact, Ike's been a series of bad news since he first was announced. In his initial announcement, he looked to easily be the best of the bunch, a completely broken unit. But with each new piece of information, he's gotten steadily worse. First off, there was the mistranslation on his B skill, which initially implied he would be "Effective against Horses and Fliers," but an examination of the Japanese text actually revealed it to only say "Nullifies buffs on cavalry and fliers." Now, it's still possible that the English version was right and the Japanese version was wrong, but that seems... very unlikely. Second, there has been a great deal of debate on the exact meaning of Urvans' effect, which reads "reduce consecutive damage by 80%" Again, this was initially thought to be amazing. All follow up attacks would be greatly reduced in effectiveness. But then, questions were raised on what exactly "consecutive" means. Does it only mean brave-effect weapons? Brave and desperation? Or was the original version right all along? Finally, we get to his stat total, which is... very underwhelming. He is literally Michalis, but with two more attack and speed. That's it. Or, to make another comparison, +spd/-def hector.... but with 10 less hp. Literally, the worst possible Hector IV. Michalis isn't a popular unit even in flier emblem. And with his skills turning out to be less than what we originally thought, things aren't looking good for Ike. Or have I missed something? Please let me know. Thanks.

This post appeared on Reddit, and it is an interesting speculation: Can confirm the lines were in the original datamine, but we all just assumed they referred to the "first free summon." which was implemented a few days later. However, these lines were actually not used at all, and now are being speculated to refer to CYL. Significant things to note: 1. "This session ends when you select a hero" - this was not how the free summon feature worked at all, as you could still keep summoning after your free pull. Further, the phrase "select a hero" implies you can see who you're getting. 2. "You can only choose one right now" - this is a warning message, which doesn't usually appear. But, as people have pointed out, these may just be from an earlier version of the free summon feature that was later revised. Just putting this out for interest.

Lol... totally messed that up. Huh. Still probably will use a variant of that though, as I'm too lazy to make that many new team sets.

For this next one, I'm running: Alm - Mostly for bonus, as he's pretty useless otherwise, I haven't invested any SI on him, but also for Falchion's incidental healing. Renewal is a huge boost in TTs. Hector - Swapping his normal vantage for renewal 3, hector is all tank all the time. Getting back 10 hp every other turn, means I can continually run him as a tank to absorb any hits and keep everyone else at full health. Ryoma - +Att, -Spd, he runs a defiant attack/vantage build. Once he drops below 50% hp, he has a whopping 60 base attack, and I threw draconic aura on top to add a little extra. Mostly used to take out Ninos, Celicas, Lilinas, Sorens, etc, all the glass cannon mages that he can one shot with his massive attack. Reinhardt - The final piece. Basically used to snipe anything Ryoma can't kill. He's stuck with attack +3, as I haven't gotten a single deathblow unit other than Ursula. (no Hawkeye or Klein, what?!?) There are no set teams after that. The initial team is designed to take us through at least the first five maps. Everything else is just a pool of units to specifically adapt to whatever took out the main team, but key players are: Tsubaki and Narcian - Triangle adept fliers. They can get around any terrain, and can be used to wipe out all blue or all red teams. Ursula - Hugely important last time around, due to the fact that Veronica always brought mage cavalry. Massive resistance, death blow, and effective against cavalry made her a great choice for clearing out veronica's teams. Lloyd - Another hugely important unit last time around, due to being able to one shot veronica (fury 3 + Glacies proc) Probably not as useful this time. Julia - Super tanky mage, with incidental healing to boot. Dragon fang proc let her do 44 damage to veronica, making her a solid back up.

Recommended, but not required. Interesting. It is still really weird to make him a swordy when there already are so many but, eh, who knows.

So. Tobin. Frickin' Tobin. As opposed to anyone else we could have possibly gotten from that game. Can anyone, anyone at all explain why they would have Tobin as a prize? I mean, as far as I can tell, he's basically a Gordin archetype, right? I haven't played Echoes yet.

Makes sense. As long as they don't replace regular ghbs, it's an interesting enough idea to replace the reruns.

Oh, I get it. Forts "reduce" as in, subtract, not by a percentage reduction. so 5 damage - 6 (damage reduction from fort) = 0, not 5 damage - (.3*5) = 3

No rounding: good to know. Thanks. I did wonder about that. That must be where the mistake was. If it rounded up, Fortify Cavalry wouldn't be enough to survive, so she'd have to run two ward cavalry, which would cut her offense down. So she would survive with 1 hp.... good thing I run hone attack hector/reinhardt. Account for those inconsistencies.

Look, I'm not trying to say Olwen is a bad unit. She is a great unit. I was just trying to make a point about cost/value ratio for more players. That said, I do believe you are incorrect in your math, although I may have made a mistake. +5 Julia has 54 attack, +20% from weapon triangle advantage gives her +10.8, which I believe rounds up to be 65. Olwen has 25 res thanks to life and death, and takes 40 damage, if all offense buffs. (side note, at +5, her res is still only 27, within margin of error) If only one ward cavalry, she gets +4, bringing her up to 29. Still takes 36 damage, which is fatal. Two ward cavalry brings her up to 33, which is enough to survive. However, if she is receiving two ward cavalry buffs, that means she can only be receiving at most one offense buff (+4att/spd), which, the battle sim calculates as meaning she will do a total of 18 damage.

Umm.... No she doesn't. Calculations? Yeah, doing the math, unless the battle sims calculations are off, there's no way Olwen can one shot fury 3 Julia, or survive the counter, even with cavalry bonuses. Neutral Julia counters for 37, which is enough to take out a +hp or + res Olwen. Unless you're running ward cavalry, but that's a whole second set of maths that I don't have time for. edit: ok, I do have time for the maths. If you run ward cavalry instead, the most a fully buffed Olwen can possibly hit for is 18. That's with life and death, +att nature, fully buffed, with attack deal, and with blade tome. Neutral Julia has 38 hp. So yes, it is completely impossible for Olwen to ORKO Julia under any circumstances. (Unless she's like +5 or whatever, but I've thrown you enough bones for this argument.)

Your calculations are right, but, here's the problem. In the arena, you're much, much more likely to be seeing the handful of units that Olwen can't kill than the 133 units she can. (cough) Julia (cough) This really does warp the viability of certain unit types. Life and Death I believe also opens her up to a few hard counters that she doesn't have to worry about otherwise...

Ah, I figured he'd be in those too. Yup. CYL should be coming up.... but not for another month at least. Remember, there are only two banners in a month, so you've got a whole month after this before it should show up.

Olwen requires an absurd amount of investment to be worthwhile, though, so that is a problem. And no Olwen can truly carry a team, regardless of what set up you use. Rather, Olwen can be carried BY a team, assuming you have the proper set up. Hector does have a long history of being able to solo Lunatic GHBs (Ursula, F. Robin, etc.), which no other unit in the game can do, so there is that.

Yeah, I believe, based on what I know about working on mobile games, that most of the banners to date were planned out in advance, and reflect IS's predictions of character popularity, rather than the actual results of the popularity poll. A good example of this would be how the Christmas art was finished before the game even released. I believe that most banners have been finalized for well over a year now, as they would have to have commissioned the art in advance, as well as prepared the sprites. Thus, it makes sense that we're getting mostly awakening and fates characters, as those were the best selling games. There is an interview floating around where the developers claim that Ike's popularity caught them totally off guard, and they really didn't expect him to take first.

Weirdly, he seems to be. He's in almost every fate work ever. He's in original stay/night, and its variants, zero, extra/ccc, extella, grand order... I think some of the spin offs too.