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Redwall

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Everything posted by Redwall

  1. It's pretty likely that the House would OK the Senate's CR if Boehner put it up for vote--plenty of non-TP Republicans are fine with it--the issue is that Boehner's been unwilling to put it up for vote.
  2. I made an oversimplified example for the sake of clarity. I suppose I should also have mentioned that in the 75% of the time the plan in my example fails, Marth dies, forcing a restart from the chapter save. I rigged save-point crits semi-frequently in my playlog, for example in Chs. 22-24. I generally have no problem with using criticals and low-percent hits after save points. I simply believe that it's preferable to self-consistently account for reliability and turn-count simultaneously rather than treating them separately. I know that, which is why I'm not actually presenting exact calculations of turn-counts. That doesn't prevent me from using the concept as a general framework to obtain a rough idea of whether one decision is better than another. I looked at the calculations page and noticed that the WTD penalty is only -10 displayed hit, validating the use of the Armorslayer forge against Lang; it's more reliable than going at him with the Wing Spear and bow forge, and less costly than using a Wing Spear forge. Nonetheless, this changes nothing about Sirius' relatively high dependence on dragon EXP when looking at his lategame performance. In general we can say that in the 17% of instances where you can't double, then the clear transitions into a clear that takes (say) one turn longer on average. We can then compute a weighted average. Of course there are generally various contingencies that we can in principle account for in a similar fashion. But I don't think we need to get everything down to arbitrary precision to use expected turn-counts as a general framework. 1) This tier list assumes reliable LTC, so expected turn-count is not unreasonable as a general way of looking at units. 2) What is a "notable" hit rate? Athena doubles Fighters with WTA and doesn't need to worry about getting OHKOed by Silver Axes, unlike Caeda. Caeda may be better, but let's not deny that both are really good in the Prologue. If I were, don't you think I'd argue for Athena moving up? I don't even know where she's ranked right now. So we agree: Caeda is great in the Prologue. The Avatar, Caeda, and Athena can contribute heavily in multiple team compositions. Just because the Avatar can't (say) solo the Prologue doesn't mean those contributions should be neglected. PKL has stated that this list assumes reliable LTC, not necessarily impressive LTC. I wasn't suggesting Luke was necessary in those stages, only that he could be useful; we're not assuming that we always field the optimal team, though in the event we are, you'd be right that he is useless for shaving turns in those early maps. Not meaningful jobs; as we've discussed, Horseman Sirius with a Brave Sword does things that many other high-tier and top-tier units can do as a Swordmaster. And he's obviously not going to be the go-to Horseman; that's a job for Ryan or Luke. You're missing my point. With Palla, you actually have to go out of your way to deprive her of enough EXP to keep her going; not only does she have higher availability and enough Spd to cleanly ORKO enemies as a flier, but she also starts out as an unpromoted unit, allowing her to gain EXP much more quickly than Sirius until she promotes. The consequence of this EXP gain is that once her EXP gain per kill slows down to roughly that of Sirius', she'll have better stats and be less dependent on dragon kills. I am not entirely sure what your point is here. That the game is more forgiving to Caeda, Catria, and Palla than to Sirius is basically the crux of the argument--their high EXP gain as unpromoted units means their stats are less sensitive to suboptimal decisions than Sirius' stats, allowing them to be dependent on dragon kills to a much smaller extent. Is the second part of this quote referencing my playlog? Because I didn't manage to get him those stat-boosters until after Ch. 21, when the game was nearly over. Either way, I don't disagree Sirius is a good unit on the whole. EXP is relevant, but like I've been saying, thanks to his mediocre (for his seniority) personal bases, that Sirius must deal with promoted status for a longer time than Caeda, Catria, and Palla means his unusually high dependence on dragons must be accounted for in his tier-list position. For the purposes of this tier list, we can acknowledge that Sirius should receive priority for those dragon kills (since, assuming perfect play with the optimal team, this benefits the team the most) while penalizing him accordingly for needing those particular kills. Now that I think about it, I suppose I'm fine with saying Palla and Sirius are qualitatively about as core (by which I mean their absence would harm the expected turn-count by a somewhat larger amount than would the absence of most other characters) as the other in the early chapters in which both are available, though I'd still give the edge to Palla due to doubling + higher availability. Looking strictly at the mid-to-late game, I doubt Caeda actually needs the Seraph Robe and two Energy Drops to do her thing; I suspect she can get by with just one Energy Drop, a +1-Mt Wing Spear (1100 G is quite a bit less contested than, say, Sirius' Seraph Robe) for the Generals in Chs. 18-20, and a continuous Rainbow IV. I recall the Seraph Robe on Caeda being useful for distracting a Ballista in Ch. 18--though this would not have been necessary if I had used the Maturity Drop on Marth--and getting her some extra kills here and there, kills that probably would not have been necessary had I either been using the RP or forged the Wing Spear. Sirius, meanwhile, demands a Seraph Robe (without which he can't catch up), a +2-Mt Wyrmslayer forge (while this isn't a terribly expensive investment, it's still something to keep in mind; also, I think this saves an Energy Drop) and, of course, many dragon kills in the midgame; he may even need a Speedwing if he hasn't taken enough dragon kills. Even if the optimal thing to do is to feed Sirius a disproportionate number of dragons (and I agree that it probably is), the fact remains that not only does there exist an opportunity cost to feeding him those kills, but you haven't presented any lategame contributions of Sirius' that are particularly good; he can ORKO Sorcerors as a Horseman with the Brave Sword, but many high-tier units can also ORKO those guys at the cost of one point of Mov. And while it is true that he can make lategame clears more robust when given EXP, let us not forget that Sirius' dependence on dragons means that he himself is not particularly robust (not so much from a mathematical standpoint as from a decision-making standpoint; earlygame he's fine without EXP, lategame we agree that he needs those midgame dragons much more so than other units).
  3. mmorpgs were and possibly still are used as punishment in chinese prisons.
  4. I am surprised, only five people have chosen one of the two ideologically pure options!
  5. rally healthcare insurance exchanges (and micaiah, i guess)
  6. California Florida Idaho Illinois Nevada Tennessee Utah Wyoming airport: Ohio, Jawjah
  7. 100% items and bestiary in Etrian Odyssey IV in 55 ventured game days. Probably could have cut off a lot more turns, but whatever. Also I completed the Pokedex in Pokemon Yellow...sans Mew. To this day, I still have no clue if Mew can be gotten in RBY without a Gameshark/Nintendo event thing.
  8. I don't think anyone is arguing that removing media hypersex will directly mitigate the population implosion. Maybe it can indirectly mitigate it, I don't know, but I don't think it's worth discussing here when none of us are empirical social scientists.
  9. I wrote my previous post in the present tense, not the past tense. It wouldn't surprise me if the Venus of Willendorf helped propagate the population of the time by promoting female traits that were suited for the ice-age-like conditions of the time and place. But for everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under heaven. There is no reason to think that sexy media in modern first-world countries is vital (though perhaps it can be fun, depending on whom you ask). One suspects that the impending first-world population implosion is due more to general economic malaise and the high costs of child-bearing rather than inadequate sexualization (just look at Japan, for example; one of the most sexed-up countries in the world, yet its fertility rate was 1.39 in 2011).
  10. Sex is important for survival of our species; sexy media not so much.
  11. You seem confused. No one here is suggesting that the golden ratio is relevant in describing attractive bust-waist-hip measurements. Where the golden ratio is relevant is in describing attractive faces.
  12. There are Chromium and Firefox plugins that prevent you from wasting your time on the Internet. More to the point, procrastinating on busy work is good, in my opinion, since it frees up your time to either work on serious assignments (not just schoolwork) or go have fun. More serious assignments that involve a lot of thinking should be the ones that receive your attention, and those you should certainly keep up with.
  13. See, I didn't expect anyone here to be so culturally illiterate that they would actually question the relevance of the golden ratio to perceptions of physical attractiveness, but I guess I was wrong. Communication skills are a thing, too. I suppose I should be flattered that you think I can read your mind when you use a personal pronoun in such a misleading way.
  14. The ratio of successive Fibonacci numbers gradually approaches the golden ratio; for example, 144/89 = 1.6180
  15. Non-gameplay related things can do a lot to grab some peoples' attention. I don't think I would have bought Awakening were it not for this piano rendition of "Don't speak her name", for example.
  16. Caeda's using the Devil Sword, not the Lady Sword. With the Rainbow Potion, 14/13 Caeda reaches 30 Luck as a Swordmaster at very high odds, and in the event she doesn't, she still has a good chance of not self-destructing. Sirius, Caeda, and Draug will each get a Seraph Robe if used late in the game. Surviving a Glower/Thoron is no problem. Have the Avatar weaken the Generals with a Steel Axe during turn two enemy phase. If the Arms Scroll General wasn't hit during turn 2 EP, then weaken him on turn 3 PP and finish with Sirius or Caeda. Problem solved. It wouldn't surprise me if, in his absence, Sirius' teammates wind up getting slightly less EXP; either way, Sirius' contributions in this map are certainly not "core" to getting low turn-counts in this map or subsequent ones. The Thieves have 30 HP and 3 Def; a L13 Catria with the RP and a LSB Energy Drop has on average 14.5 Str, enough to deal on average 20.5 damage to a Thief when using a Steel Lance with C-ranked lances against a Thief on a forest tile. Caeda obviously needs Silver Lance support to KO, but Arran can survive a round of combat against a Thief if he takes the Rainbow Potion as a DK. If you read my post, you will note I have acknowledged that doing this without Sirius is less reliable and hurts the expected turn-count; I am only suggesting that his absence from C7 doesn't hurt that much, and that he is by no means "core" here. I said "qualitatively" for a reason; I never disputed that it was a good thing. Self-improvement helps, of course, but Sirius isn't doing anything amazing with the dragon EXP in the endgame, in contrast to Luke. Furthermore, there is an opportunity cost for having Sirius take those kills; while it may well be the optimal thing to do, Sirius' dependence on these kills weakens his case for being in the top tier if we go by the criteria presented in the OP. Neither Caeda nor Catria depend on dragon kills the way Sirius does; they can keep up using resources (kills) that are not nearly as valuable by virtue of starting in unpromoted classes. The in-chapter save point doesn't ensure the KO anymore than does the chapter save does. It obviates the need to redo the first five turns, but it doesn't validate the Armorslayer forge in this chapter when you consider that its use against Lang probably (you're welcome to check this, as I don't want to do the arithmetic myself) causes the sixth turn to result in more resets on average (increasing the expected turn-count) compared to simply using the Wing Spear and bow forge. If you object to this line of thinking, realize that we would consider a one-turn clear at 25% odds to have an expected turn-count of four regardless of the fact that we have a save just before starting the level. Athena's more or less in Caeda's league if looking strictly at Prologue performance. What puts Caeda and not Athena in the top tier is that Caeda's solid even after the Prologue. I'm simply using my experiences in H3 and H4 to inform some of my arguments. I'm not claiming Sirius is generally going to be as bad as he was in my playthrough, nor am I claiming my H4 playthrough to be 100% representative of the tier-list playstyle; my playthrough was not very optimized, nor did it allow the Rainbow Potion or the Maturity Drop, each of which significantly helps Sirius (the latter in an indirect way since it frees up a Speedwing). Luke's first six maps are rout maps. Luke isn't getting kills solely for self-improvement; he's also contributing directly to the goals of those maps. You may claim that fielding Luke isn't optimal in the last two or three Prologue chapters, but note that in the next four chapters preceding Sirius' recruitment, the easiest thing to do to help Marth seize the throne is to just rout everyone; in these levels, Luke continues to actively help the team towards its goal (just like Sirius does in the dragon chapters). And while you may claim him to be some rugged individualist, let me again point out that Sirius is condemned to doing odd jobs in the next few chapters (until Chapter 22, by which time you can just give him some stat-boosters) unless he gets the disproportionate number of dragon kills and the very specific training program in the preceding chapters that you prescribe, whereas the RAF units can share their dragons with others and function just fine regardless. Your complaints are unfounded; I have been operating under the assumption that feeding Sirius a bunch of dragon kills is the optimal thing to do (I even went out of my way in my playthrough to feed Sirius the bosskills in Chapters 7 and 12). I simply don't think that Sirius' contributions, with or without swallowing his dragon kills, are enough to put him in the top tier, since if we adopt the criteria put forth in the OP, he fits the profile of a high-tier unit--a unit "that significantly [cuts] turns with some degree of resources [...] (exp, statbooster, warped, rescue ferried) or support units that make those units capable of those strategies, [and will] not work in every scenario but [contributes largely] if utilised correctly"--much better: kills in general are resources, for the purposes of this tier list; and Sirius' contributions in the earlygame are solid but not spectacular. But since you've erected a fairly ridiculous strawman in addition to continuing to argue in the weeds, I'll assume you've conceded the basic point.
  17. 1+1/(1+1/(1+1/(1+1/...))) (true story)
  18. I don't think it's possible to beat the game on the difficulties above Lunatic Casual (so basically, Lunatic Classic and both flavors of Lunatic+) without Pair Up. In those difficulties, the consequence of Pair Up is that you have a very small core of combat units (smaller than in previous FEs) get strong really quickly, and a bunch of auxiliary fighters who get benched in no-grind playthroughs unless they can use staves or dance, making the game less reliant on teamwork than earlier FE games.
  19. I was expecting another ode on a galeforcian urn.
  20. You can roll through Lunatic more or less how you want, with or without grinding. You won't need Galeforce on anything if looking strictly at the main campaign and Paralogues.
  21. Well, before you say things like that, you need to be sure that she's fake friends with you.
  22. Of the high-tier units, any Swordmaster (if leveled), save for Arran and Linde, can reliably ORKO Sorcerors without the Brave Sword. I also never said the Brave Sword was useless. Anyone can KO wyrms after chip damage. Outranging the one Thoron Sorceror in the lower-right quadrant of C21 isn't anything to write home about when you can just fight him during the enemy phase. The Meteor Sorceror far to the right can be ganged up on. Not sure why you think this means much; the Avatar can set up kills for him/herself or for other units just fine in Sirius' absence. Sirius is merely helping himself, and not his teammates, here. Certainly this does improve the expected turn-count in the dragon chapters by an iota, since Sirius does gain EXP this way, but you shouldn't have to argue in the weeds when it comes to ostensibly top-tier characters. I'm aware he can OHKO Thieves; I just don't think it means much. I didn't use the RP at all in my H4 run and had no trouble with C7; for this reason, I am fairly sure that Caeda and Catria can each do Sirius' job just fine if Arran is also around. Worst case scenario, you're losing a Seraph Robe that cuts the expected turn-count by very little. I don't disagree that Sirius is useful for killing a Dracoknight in C9 on turn two. With or without that contribution, however, his early-game performance is qualitatively no different. Not only are you facing WTD, but Lang is also on a throne. Unless that additional EXP actually cuts the expected turn-count elsewhere to a large enough extent to dwarf the decrease in reliability resulting from the WTD, it's not happening unless you're playing without Caeda. P4: Caeda is the only other character besides the Avatar who doesn't get doubled by Athena; she also doubles enemies, something no one else can do (except for the Avatar, depending on the build). P5-7: She and Athena are the only two characters (again, possible exception for the Avatar) who can double things. P8: I don't recall if Est can double. Otherwise my arguments are the same. Consider the turns lost in Caeda's absence to the turns lost in Sirius' absence. Fast completions of the Prologue chapters lean on Caeda to a much larger extent than do fast completions of Sirius' first few chapters on Sirius. Let's look at the criteria, then: "Units that are core to achieving low turn counts on many maps, and do not require many resources or a team composition to do this effectively." Sirius is core to achieving low turn-counts on only a few maps, and requires a great deal of resources (dragon kills), without which he is total crap. This is babying in the same way that you consider feeding Luke his early-game kills to be babying. I personally wouldn't penalize Sirius for this so long as it remains the optimal thing to do in a variety of contexts, but since you insist on going by the descriptions...
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