Ice Dragon

The next Resplendent Hero is being announced early again, and to no one's surprise, it's Brave Hector, but this time he's in a Nifl outfit: Nifl has always had the most drab-looking outfits, and it's nice that this one actually looks visually interesting. Thankfully, they've been getting better at this recently, it seems, though it's still a bit hit or miss. I'm also glad we have Nifl armor that looks normal instead of like Fjorm's and Hrid's solid metal bricks. Hector's stats have certainly seen better days, though he's still plenty viable for PvE content. The Resplendent stat boost brings him up to 55/44/29/46+/35- with maximum Dragonflowers, which is a little bit bulkier than Valentine Rudolf at the cost of losing out on a sizable chunk of Atk. On the bright side, Maltet is actually comparable to Arcane Qiang, granting an additional +1 Atk/Def/Res and stat penalty nullification over Qiang in exchange for losing +5 Spd, +1 Special charge rate, and the extra HP and additional stat from a stat refine. While it is less recommended to run Hector as a Far Save tank nowadays due to his lower Res and the insane damage output of modern offensive ranged units, his Ostian Counter is still better than all of the alternative Distant Counter options for the slot outside of Atk/Def Prime 4 with significant team support to get the necessary stacks on it to activate Distant Counter. That said, it probably is still better to run him as a Near Save tank now and leave Far Save to more specialized units. This finishes off all of the CYL 2 units. It also brings Blazing up to tie with both Tellius games as the titles with the largest completion percentage at 60% of their eligible units: Nifl Ilyana Askr Brave Veronica Hel Soren Embla Brave Celica Embla Selena Nifl Brave Hector It's also worth noting that Blazing now has as many units with Resplendent outfits as both Tellius games have eligible units combined.

What do you mean girls don't like BOLD lines?

I'm a bit surprised since Peony's team gained fewer votes during the first same hour. I wonder if it's because Alear's team's disadvantage multiplier was more recent so that the team had fewer ballots available. Regardless of how the win came about, the result is perfect for me. Peony has the most value to me as a free unit, and the banner is going to be all green, which makes orb spending a ton more efficient.

When used as a wall breaker, she can always land Deadeye on her follow-up attack with any Pulse effect in her C slot (Time's Pulse 4, Pulse Up: Blades, or Infantry Pulse 4) or Emblem Marth if the opponent can counterattack. If you don't mind your Special being stopped by defensive Tempo, Pledge will also let her land Deadeye, Dragon Fang, Ignis, or Astra on her follow-up. With Pledge and Emblem Marth, she can even land Aether. And if you want to play it safe, she always has access to Ruptured Sky + Tempo 4. Getting your cooldown drained by 2 points after combat is not an issue when builds that let you land 3- and 4-cooldown Specials in every round of combat are commonplace and no longer need to rely on Special Spiral. While normally I consider the +3 Atk/Spd in combat from the tier-4 Oath and Rouse skills to be worth using even if the visible +6 Atk/Spd overlaps with an effect on a different skill slot, Fallen Corrin has to deal with the fact that he doesn't have access to a premium 2-cooldown Special. He doesn't have access to Ruptured Sky at all, and he doesn't have the Slaying effect to run Dragon's Roar with 2 cooldown. He also can't reliably activate Aether without both +1 Special charge rate and a Pulse effect. As a result, if he isn't running Emblem Marth, a Pulse effect in his C slot is more useful to him than the extra stats from Incite.

The Voting Gauntlet announcement says it'll be the second half of March. (I'm reading the Japanese announcement, so I don't know how it's worded in the English one.) I don't think we've gotten any other announcements with a more precise date.

No red on this week's free Arena ticket, so I ended up getting Caineghis: On the plus side, my free pull on the Tempest Trials banner got me Chloe, and this one has a Spd Asset that I can use as my new merge base.

I just noticed that Harmonized Chloe has the exact same two source games as Harmonized Anna (Engage and Awakening), which means I definitely don't need to worry about getting merges for her since it'll take a lot before she surpasses my +6 Anna for scoring, and I certainly don't have the budget for that many copies. Sacrificing one copy to duplicate Occultist's Strike and Spd/Res Crux seems pretty worthwhile now. EDIT: The Tempest Trials announcement is now out, and the Sacred Seals are Atk/Def Clash and Rouse Def/Res. And Clash is the lower reward of the two, which seems like someone doesn't have their priorities straight. Linhardt's weapon inflicts -7 Atk/Def and Discord with Ploy 4 targeting and Ploy 4 conditions (both phases, same stat threshold). In combat, it grants +5 Atk/Res and, if the opponent has Discord, a guaranteed follow-up and follow-up prevention. Why it grants Res instead of Def in combat is beyond me. Also added the weapon to the translation notes.

Refines are out now. Midori: Lucky Bow Base effect is: Bow common effect With a Stance condition or if opponent's HP is 75% or higher at start of combat: +4 to all stats in combat +7 Atk in combat -7 Atk to opponent in combat Additional damage equal to 15% of Atk Flat damage reduction equal to 15% of Atk, excludes AoE Specials If unit attacked in combat, +2 Special cooldown after combat Refine effect is: At start of turn, with a Unity condition: Removes Penalties on unit and allies within 2 spaces of unit, excludes Penalties inflicted at start of this turn 10 HP recovery to unit and allies within 2 spaces of unit If HP is 25% or higher at start of combat: +4 to all stats in combat Guaranteed follow-up Follow-up prevention Midori unfortunately keeps the drawback of Spendthrift Bow, but gets sizable boosts to her damage and bulk. Thankfully, there are enough ways to deal with it nowadays. She functionally gets +15/8/15/15 plus something like 13~15 or so additional damage and flat damage reduction. Unfortunately, due to being a ranged unit, her only real source of percentage damage reduction on enemy phase comes from skills like Guard 4 and Null C-Disrupt 4, which are less powerful than what are available to other classes. She also gets both Even Recovery 2 and Odd Recovery 2 that also applies to herself, which is really neat. Seiros: Aurora Breath Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Atk Dragonstone common effect +6 Atk/Def/Res in combat (Atk previously with a Blow condition, Def/Res previously with a Stance condition) Guaranteed follow-up (previously with a Blow condition) Follow-up prevention (previously with a Stance condition) Guard effect (new) Refine effect is: Slaying effect If HP is 25% or higher at start of combat: +4 Atk/Def/Res in combat Additional damage on first attack equal to 15% of opponent's Res, excludes AoE Specials Dragon Wall 3 7 HP recovery after combat For reference, her remix gives her 30% damage reduction and +1 Special charge rate along with huge improvements to her support abilities. Her new skill is Atk/Res Scowl 4, replacing Mirror Impact. As expected, she gets the Slaying effect to give Dragon's Roar or Aether an even cooldown to line up more nicely with the +1 Special charge rate from Wings of Light+. Also as expected, all of the effects on her base weapon are now unconditional, which is really nice. She also gets Dragon Wall 3 on her weapon, which makes it really easy to swap out Dragon Wall 3 from her B slot for Counter Roar 4. In addition, she gets Guard, half of a Moonbow on her first attack, and post-combat regeneration. Good stuff overall. Fallen Male Corrin: Brutal Breath Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Spd Dragonstone common effect +4 to all stats in combat (new) If there are no more than 3 allies within 1 space: +1 to all stats in combat (new) If there are no more than 2 allies within 1 space (previously 2 spaces): +2 to all stats in combat (previously +1) If there is no more than 1 ally within 1 space (previously 2 spaces): +2 to all stats in combat If there are no allies within 1 spaces (previously 2 spaces): +2 to all stats in combat Guard effect (previously only if there is no more than 1 ally within 2 spaces) 7 HP recovery after combat (new) Refine effect is: At start of turn, If there are no more than 2 allies within 1 space, grants the following status effects to unit: +6 Atk/Spd Dodge Dull With a Stance condition or if opponent's HP is 75% or higher at start of combat: +4 to all stats in combat Additional damage equal to 20% of Spd, excludes AoE Specials I'm a bit surprised they didn't give him Null Follow-Up on his weapon, which means he's stuck running it in his B slot. In exchange, he gets Dodge as a status effect to give him damage reduction and post-combat regeneration to make up for not being able to run Counter Roar. Interestingly, they also gave him what is functionally Incite Atk/Spd, but with Dull and the aforementioned Dodge instead of Incite as the non-stat status effects, which directly overlaps with his default Rouse Spd/Def. The positioning-dependent stat boosts on his weapon's base effect were also made easier to activate by reducing the condition range from 2 spaces to 1 space. The Guard effect was also made unconditional. It's worth noting that he doesn't get the Slaying effect, which means he'll probably want to run Time's Pulse 4 or Emblem Marth to get a 2-cooldown Dragon's Roar. It looks like Time's Pulse 4 is what they're intending you to run on him since the stat bonuses on his refine effect overlap with the Atk/Spd versions of Oath/Pledge/Incite, making them less worth running. Dagr: Skinfaxi Base effect is updated: At start of turn, grants the following status effects to support partner; if unit has more than 1 support partner, this effect doesn't activate: Pathfinder (new) If HP is 25% or higher at start of combat: +5 to all stats in combat Unity effect for all stats Permanent +3 Spd Pathfinder Refine effect is: With a Blow-or-Unity condition: -4 Atk/Spd/Def to opponent in combat In-combat Panic effect to opponent's Atk/Spd/Def Additional damage equal to 10% of Atk, excludes AoE Specials 40% damage reduction on opponent's non-follow-up attacks For reference, her remix gives her the secondary effect of Phys. Null Follow and effectively some additional stats. Her new skill is Atk/Spd Hexblade, replacing Atk/Spd Push 4. The only update to her base effect is that she also grants Pathfinder to her support partner as long as there is only one of them, which is really helpful. Thankfully, Nott won't be able to do this on Aether Raids defense, though I'm sure they'll find an alternate condition for it, like with Brave Soren's Assign Decoy. Other than that, she gets an effective +4 to all stats, in-combat Panic on the opponent, 7~8 points of additional damage, and the obligatory 40% damage reduction on the opponent's non-follow-up attacks. No Tempo is a bit unexpected, though she doesn't have any form of Special acceleration, so activating her Special isn't really prioritized. Having both the Unity and Panic effects in combat is pretty fancy. Amusingly, she only inflicts penalties to the opponent's Def stat despite getting Hexblade as her new skill. That's not really an issue, but it's a bit inconvenient that it makes it harder to actually make use of the Hexblade effect. Annette: Crusher Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Atk Hexblade effect When using a Rally Assist: If target is not a ranged cavalry unit: Grants +1 movement to target as a status effect Galeforce effect (new) If HP is 25% or higher at start of combat: +4 to all stats in combat 40% damage reduction on opponent's non-follow-up attacks Refine effect is: With a Blow-or-Unity condition: +4 to all stats in combat Reduces opponent's Spd/Def/Res in combat by 6 minus their current stat penalty to that stat, minimum 0, only if opponent doesn't nullify stat penalties to that stat Guaranteed follow-up If opponent has a stat penalty to Spd, Def, or Res: Additional damage equal to 15% of Atk, excludes AoE Specials Inflicts -6 Spd/Def/Res to opponent after combat as status effects She got Galeforce on her Rally. Awesome. Additionally, she gets a total of +8 to all stats, about 10 points of additional damage, the obligatory 40% damage reduction on the opponent's non-follow-up attacks, a guaranteed follow-up, and a weaker version of Seal Spd 4, Seal Def 4, and Seal Res 4. No additional effects added to her Rally other than Galeforce, which is a bit of a bummer, but Galeforce is already plenty to help her keep up with more recent Rally-focused support units. Duo Micaiah: Joyful Vows Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Atk Effective damage against armor and cavalry If unit has a Bonus (existing) or opponent has a Penalty (new): +6 Atk/Res in combat Boost to Atk in combat equal to highest total stat penalties among opponent and enemies within 2 spaces of opponent Guaranteed follow-up (new) Follow-up prevention (previously with a Blow condition) Refine effect is: At start of turn, inflicts the following status effects on enemies with the highest Atk/Spd/Def/Res and enemies within 2 spaces of them: -7 to the respective stat Sabotage With a Blow-or-Unity condition: +5 Atk/Res in combat Half percentage damage reduction nullification Getting a guaranteed follow-up was expected. Not getting any defensive effect was not expected. Instead, she gets a Dominance-like effect that uses the highest value including enemies near the target, a Chill 4 effect for each stat that also inflicts Sabotage, and half percentage damage reduction nullification. I don't see a way out of swapping out either her A or B slot for something with a defensive effect. It's worth noting that because her weapon's Dominance-like effect is actually a boost to her Atk instead of additional damage, it also gets multiplied by her effective damage against armor and cavalry. So on the bright side, she does a gajillion damage. Gangrel: Levin Dagger Base effect is updated: At start of turn, inflicts the following status effects on closest enemies within 5 spaces and enemies within 2 spaces of them: -7 Spd/Res (new) Guard (new) If unit has a Bonus (new) or opponent has a Penalty (existing): +4 to all stats in combat Additional damage equal to 20% of Res, includes AoE Specials (not previously specified) Permanent +3 Res Dagger (7) Refine effect is: If HP is 25% or higher at start of combat: Hexblade effect +4 to all stats in combat Reduces opponent's Atk/Spd/Def/Res by highest stat penalty to that stat among opponent and enemies within 2 spaces of opponent 30% damage reduction on opponent's first attack He's less unremarkable now. His weapon now properly has Hexblade on it. It also inflicts -7 Spd/Res to the closest enemy with a 2-radius splash and gives him the Sabotage effect to double that effect, which helps fix his middling Atk stat as long as he actually targets their Res or you have a Def debuffer on the team. His Spd was already not horrible, so this mostly just closes up the gap to help him compete with the fastest units. His additional damage based on his Res is still pretty funny since his Res still isn't that good, but the 20% scaling does make it at least almost comparable to other stat-based additional damage effects. The Remote effect on his weapon means he doesn't have to run Remote in the A slot if the 30% is enough, which opens him up to run something else, like Finish 4 or Flash Sparrow. Overall thoughts Micaiah's is the only one that really makes me worry since it has no defensive effect on it at all, but given that it's stacking so much extra damage, giving up some offensive effects on her passive skills shouldn't be too much of an issue. Otherwise, I don't really see any glaring issues with this batch. Even Gangrel's is actually usable, even if he still doesn't stand out compared to other infantry daggers.

Anyways, the usual translation notes: The banner name, "A Place to Rest", is "安眠の地を求めて" (anmin no chi o motomete), "Searching For a Place to Sleep Well". Framme's epithet, "Spring Fangirl", is "季節では春が推し" (kisetsu de wa haru ga oshi), "Of the Seasons, Spring Is [Her] Favorite". "推し" (oshi), "one's favorite", is terminology used in idol fan culture and related fandoms to refer to a person's favorite group or individual member. Hippity-Hop Axe is "春に跳ぶ白兎の斧" (haru ni tobu shirousagi no ono), "Axe of the White Rabbit That Hops In Spring". Firestorm Boost is "生命の業火疾風" (seimei no gōka shippū), "Hellfire/Gale of Lifeblood". As usual, the Boost series uses the same stat indicators as Dance and Balm skills. Sylvain's epithet, "Spring Flingster", is "春の出会いを期待" (haru no deai o kitai), "Anticipating a Spring Meeting". "出会い" (deai), "meeting" or "encounter", is used to refer to meetings facilitated by dating services. Flingster Spear is "春の出会いの槍" (haru no deai no yari), "Lance of a Spring Meeting". S/D Near Trace is "速さ守備の近影" (hayasa shubi no kin'ei), "Spd/Def Near Trace". As usual, "影" (ei), normally "shadow", "reflection", or "image", here means "trace" as in something that was left behind. Canto (Rem. +1; Min. 2) is "再移動（残り＋１、最低２）" (sai-idō (nokori +1, saitei 2)), "Move Again (Remainder +1, Minimum 2)". Mirabilis's epithet, "Spring Daydream", is "お昼寝日和の" (o-hirune-biyori no), "A Perfect Day For an Afternoon Nap". This epithet is structured to be grammatically linked to Mirabilis's name as an appositive due to the fact that epithets precede the character's name in Japanese. This results in her name and epithet being read "お昼寝日和のルピナス" (o-hirune-biyori no rupinasu), "Mirabilis, [who is enjoying] a perfect day for an afternoon nap". (Her name in Japanese is "Lupinus", though it's spelled "Lupine" in internal files.) Daydream Egg is "春に揺蕩う白夢の卵" (haru ni tayutau hakumu no tamago), "Egg of Daydreams Swaying In the Spring". "白夢" (hakumu), literally "white dream", is a novel compound that is also Mirabilis's base version's epithet. It's most likely a contraction of "白昼夢" (hakuchūmu) or "白日夢" (hakujitsumu), both literally "dreaming in the white [light] of day", meaning "daydream" or "fantasy". Spring's Dream is "しろいはるのゆめ" (shiroi haru no yume), "Dream of a White Spring". Compare with Whimsical Dream, which is "しろいゆめ" (shiroi yume), "white dream", in Japanese. As is the standard for the fairies' exclusive Assist skills, this one is written entirely phonetically in hiragana, which is a format commonly used in publications intended to be read by children who are too young to be expected to be able to read kanji yet. Chloe's epithet, "Spring Wings", is "春空舞う双つの翼" (haruzora-mau futatsu no tsubasa), "Paired Wings Dancing In the Spring Sky". This appears to be a play on the terminology for Duo Heroes, "比翼" (hiyoku, "flying side by side", literally "[with] wings matched", often used figuratively to refer to a married couple), and Harmonized Heroes, "双界" (sōkai, "paired worlds"). "春空" is a novel compound, so I'm not sure if it should be read "haruzora" or "shunkū". Sky-Hopper Egg is "春風舞う天馬兎の卵" (harukaze-mau tenba-usagi no tamago), "Egg of Pegasus-Rabbits Dancing In the Spring Breeze". Spd/Res Crux is "速さ魔防の十字牽制" (hayasa mabō no jūji kensei), "Spd/Res Cross Restraint". Compare with Rein, which is "牽制" (kensei), "restraint". Linhardt's epithet, "Spring Snoozer", is "春眠の徒" (shunmin no to), "Adherent of Deep Sleep". "春眠" (shunmin), "deep sleep", literally translates as "sleeping in spring". This word derives from a Japanese proverb, "春眠暁を覚えず" (shunmin akatsuki o oboezu), "sleeping in the spring, unaware of the dawn", which itself comes from the first line of the poem "春暁" (shungyō), "Spring Dawn", and refers to sleeping in late due to the warmth of spring after winter's end. Carrot Bow is "ニンジンの弓" (ninjin no yumi), "Carrot Bow".

Firestorm Boost 3 and S/D Near Trace 4 are nice to finally have released. Crux is very, very interesting. And they're really spoiling us with 4-star dancers with both Lara and now Mirabilis being released as 4-star units. I might have some budget lying around for this banner since although AHR is coming up, I think there should be enough time before the AHR banner that it will end up on next month's budget instead of this month's, but we'll see. It's pretty convenient that Mirabilis shares a color with Sylvain because I'm definitely going to want an extra copy of him to give his skills to Rearmed Chrom to duplicate. I might also go for 2 copies of Framme. Not sure how many copies of Chloe I want. I already have a decently merged Anna to use as a score stick in Resonant Battles, so I don't need Chloe that badly.

If you're using her for player phase, then you're probably looking at running Special Fighter 4, which grants Guard and adds Noontime's effect to any triggered Special. Note that the biggest downside of Special Fighter, though, is the fact that it doesn't grant any stats. However, you probably want to wait to see what Bold Fighter 4 and Daring Fighter 4 have when they're released. If you don't want to wait, you can always go with Brash Assault 4 or Desperation 4 as placeholders if you have the spare resources. On enemy phase, you can pick between Special Fighter 4, Vengeful Fighter 4, and Savvy Fighter 4 or wait to see what Crafty Fighter 4 brings when it's released.

Armors and cavalry don't have access to Oath Echo, so I'll only give skill recommendations for infantry and fliers. Note that Peony struggles with finding skills that are generally useful for infantry, so you're likely to waste some inheritance slots when giving Oath Echo to infantry: Special: Ruptured Sky No Quarter: Usable by sword, lance, and axe units and is typically the strongest 3-cooldown Special. Passive A: Flared: Only usable by fliers, it's the most offensive options for them and is usable by both melee and ranged units. Clash 4: Typically more useful on fliers than on infantry, but is limited to only melee units. Can be useful with the teleportation effect from Oath Echo, but outside of game modes where stat penalties are common, you're more likely to want Flared on fliers and Finish on infantry. Catch 4: Only usable by fliers, it's generally considered to be weaker than the other options due to having no non-stat effect. However, the stronger options aren't usable by staves. Boost 4: Only useful on dual-phase and enemy-phase units. Still Water 4: Use with Sabotage 4 and/or Ploy 4. Peony notably doesn't have any good options for this slot that are usable by player-phase infantry, as she doesn't have access to Finish 4 or Remote, and even though Boost 4 is usable with dual-phase infantry, Finish 4 is still typically better than Boost 4 for this role. Passive B: Assassin's Strike: Does lots of damage. Only usable by physical units. Flow Desperation: Grants Desperation and Null Follow-Up. Only usable by melee fliers. Desperation 4: Flow Desperation is strictly better, but Desperation 4 is usable by all classes. Gambit 4: Very strong, but requires specific other skill effects to function. Brash Assault 4: Does Brash Assault 4 things. Quick Riposte 4: Does Quick Riposte 4 things. Escape Route 4: Escape Route 4 is slightly outdated, but Canto (1) can still be useful for infantry. Fliers, however, have access to Near Trace and Far Trace 4, which are generally better, especially since Oath Echo grants some teleportation. Near Trace 3: Near Trace 4 doesn't exist yet, so this is the best you can do for melee Canto. If you're intending to duplicate Near Trace, you're better off waiting for the tier-4 skills to be released first. Sabotage 4: Very strong, but requires high Res. Infantry again have access to a lot of really good infantry-exclusive skills that Peony can't supply, so she'll be of limited use to both melee and ranged infantry in the B slot. Gambit 4 is pretty much the only one that has a good chance of being optimal for units that can use it, but it does require specific builds to work. Peony also unfortunately doesn't have access to Far Trace 4 for ranged fliers and Occultist's Strike for magical units. Aerial Maneuvers overlaps with Oath Echo's teleportation, even if Oath Echo's teleportation is weaker, so it's generally better to run Flow Desperation with Oath Echo instead of Aerial Maneuvers. Passive C : Rein Snap: Generally the best option for melee fliers. Oath Echo helps with the fact that Rein Snap doesn't provide stat bonuses. Hold: Ranged fliers don't have access to Rein Snap, so Hold is the next best thing. Smoke 4: Smoke is really the only option for infantry other than Ploy 4, but it's generally outclassed by the tier-4 Oath and Rouse skills and the infantry-exclusive skills. Menace: Similar to Smoke 4, this is also a bit outdated. However, it does give you an option to get stat bonuses without team support. Ploy 4: Very strong, but requires high Res. Peony again struggles to have good picks for infantry in this slot because Oath 4 is made redundant with Oath Echo, so Pledge, Incite, and the Pulse skills (and Ploy 4 on units with high Res) are typically preferred.

This past week's free Arena ticket got me Male Byleth: Another copy of Ruptured Sky. Yay~

I'll go through all of the options (that are worth duplicating) that can be passed from Reinhardt to other movement types: Special: To infantry: Ruptured Sky: While this is the only option available from Reinhardt, it has competition with Flare. To armors and fliers: Ruptured Sky Passive A: To infantry and armors: Remote: For player-phase units. Boost 4: For enemy-phase and dual-phase units. Infantry have access to Finish 4 and Ideal 4, but Remote is typically better if the unit is player-phase and has no other defensive effects on other skill slots. To fliers: Flared: For player-phase units. Lacks any defensive effects, so you typically want a defensive effect on another skill slot. Remote: For player-phase units. Less offensive than Flared, but has a defensive effect. Boost 4: For enemy-phase and dual-phase units, which are very uncommon among tome fliers. Passive B: To infantry and armors: Occultist's Strike: The highest-damaging option for this slot. Brash Assault 4: Comes with a defensive effect, extra damage, and a guaranteed follow-up that can occasionally be useful against fast units if the opponent happens to not have the defensive half of Null Follow-Up. However, it grants no stats. Desperation 4: Really good defensive effect and grants some Spd. Pairs pretty well with Arcane Thunder due to Arcane Thunder having +1 Special charge rate to make up for not gaining Special charge from a counterattack. Escape Route 4: Escape Route 4 weaker offensively than other options for this slot, but grants teleportation and Canto. Sabotage 4: Very strong, but only useful if the unit has a high Res stat. Note, however, that you're unlikely to run Still Water 4 on a unit with Arcane Thunder, so the unit will typically have to rely on their natural Res. Infantry have a lot of competition in this slot, namely with Special Spiral 4 and Tempo 4. Lull 4 is technically an option here, but Arcane Thunder already nullifies stat bonuses to Spd/Res, so it loses a lot of its value. Armors also have a lot of competition in this slot with the many Fighter skill options, even if you give them one of these skills, they probably won't use it often or at all. To fliers: Occultist's Strike: Same as above. Far Trace 4: A bit less damage than Occultist's Strike, but grants Canto in return. Brash Assault 4: Same as above. Desperation 4: Same as above. Escape Route 4: Same as above. Sabotage 4: Same as above. Unlike infantry and armors, fliers don't actually have any other alternatives for this slot, so you're going to want to transfer at least one of these skills. Passive C : To infantry: Incite: The strongest option for this slot most of the time. Even with the huge competition for this slot, Incite is a strong option. Smoke 4: Lacks immediate stat boosts of any kind, but the Def/Res version provides Pathfinder. The Atk version is pretty much useless with Arcane Thunder. The Spd version is only useful on dual-phase units. Menace: A bit outdated, but not actually bad. Unlike the Smoke 4 skills, Menace actually grants immediate stat boosts. Ploy 4: Very strong, but only useful if the unit has a high Res stat. Note, however, that you're unlikely to run Still Water 4 on a unit with Arcane Thunder, so the unit will typically have to rely on their natural Res. Infantry have a lot of competition for this slot, namely with Oath 4, Pulse Up, Time's Pulse 4, and Infantry Pulse 4. Note that Pledge isn't useful in this slot because Arcane Thunder already has the same effect. To armor and fliers: Smoke 4: Same as above. Pathfinder is a bit less useful on fliers than it is for other unit types due to mobility effects being relatively common as support effects on other fliers. It's a bit more useful on mixed teams, though. Menace: Same as above. Ploy 4: Same as above. Armors generally have way better options for this slot in the form of the Far Save skills and the mobility skills, so even if you transfer one of these, it probably won't see too much use. Fliers have a lot of competition for this slot from Oath 4, Hold, and Deadly Miasma, so even if you transfer one of these, it probably won't see too much use unless it's Ploy 4 and the unit has a ton of Res naturally.

I picked Hydro Pump because it's one of the few inaccurate single-target damaging moves that are still relevant to the current official competitive format (VGC). Not because it's good, but because there's one Pokémon that has no choice but to run it.

Actual numbers, please. "It happens"? Yes, of course it happens. Hydro Pump misses. A lot. Yet has an 80% chance to hit. "Hydro Pump misses a lot" is not evidence that the 80% chance to hit is not actually 80%.

The probability of a team winning is the same as the probability that they have more points in any given hour. You can therefore calculate the probability of each side winning indirectly by calculating how many hours it takes for the smaller team to retake the lead after a disadvantage multiplier from the larger team. The floor calculation assumes that players only spend flags on hours that they have a disadvantage. In this case, the size of the team is exactly proportional to the number of points they earn in an hour, and so if the larger team has x times more players as the smaller team, it will take exactly x hours for the smaller team to earn the same number of points to retake the lead. If the teams are equal size (x = 1), the odds have a floor of 1:1. If the larger team has 2 times the number of players, the odds have a floor of 2:1. If the larger team has 3 times the number of players, the odds have a floor of 3:1. etc. This is super-easy to do in your head and shouldn't be too egregiously off from actual numbers as long as team sizes aren't horrendously different. A super-conservative ceiling calculation assumes that players spend the same number of flags on hours that they have advantage on as they have disadvantage on. Because the winner is functionally determined only by the last rubber banding of the score, we can estimate using the multipliers from the last hour. I won't go into detail, but due to the fact that the multipliers increase with time and due to the fact that the ratio of the multipliers also increases with time, using the multipliers from the last hour will overestimate the number of hours it will take for the smaller team to retake the lead even more, which is exactly what we want from a ceiling. From this, we get that the number of hours it takes for the smaller team to retake the lead with these assumptions is [(3.69x - 1) ÷ (3.69 - x)]. If the teams are equal size (x = 1), the odds have a ceiling of 1:1. (This is a sanity check to make sure nothing went horribly wrong in the calculations.) If the larger team has 2 times the number of players, the odds have a ceiling of 3.78:1. If the larger team has 3 times the number of players, the odds have a ceiling of 14.6:1. When the larger team has 3.69 times the number of players, the smaller team cannot catch up ever. With how extremely quickly the odds increase, this estimate is probably a bit too egregiously conservative of a ceiling. But, we now have a method to calculate with other simple flag spending assumptions. Using the same method as before, let's use a more reasonable estimate that players spend half as many flags during advantage. This gives us [(7.38x - 1) ÷ (7.38 - x)] hours. If the teams are equal size (x = 1), the odds are 1:1. (Another sanity check.) If the larger team has 2 times the number of players, the odds are 2.56:1. If the larger team has 3 times the number of players, the odds are 4.83:1. So there you have it. A slightly-better-than-back-of-the-envelope estimate puts you between x:1 and the numbers above. I like the selfish position of "I like it this way when this way benefits me more and the other way when that way benefits me more", but with it not being a big deal either way. Because this single banner is far less impactful than the Legendary/Mythic/Emblem and Remix schedules which actively hate me and make some units share a banner with the new unit a bunch of times and other units never share a banner with the new unit ever, which is why I've gotten 34 copies of Seiros, but only 3 copies of Triandra.

No, that's exactly what's happening. There's no conspiracy going on behind the scenes. No one is guaranteed a win or a loss, but every time a Voting Gauntlet is run, 7 of the 8 characters must necessarily lose. That Edelgard has ended up in the losing 7 every time is unlucky, but not out of the ordinary. To say that someone deserves to win a Voting Gauntlet is the same as saying that the 7 other contestants deserve to lose solely for the sake of giving that someone a win, and that's equally not fair to those 7. As it is right now, the probability that the larger team wins is slightly higher than the ratio of the team sizes. (The math is pretty easy. If you want me to elaborate, I'd be happy to.) If you don't think that to be fair, that what split would you consider to be fair (ignoring the mechanics of how to get that split to happen in the first place and just focusing on what kind of split you deem fair)?

Bad luck. Winning a Voting Gauntlet as the favorite is like hitting 3 Hydro Pumps in a row. Each individual roll might be in your favor, but sometimes luck just isn't on your side. And sometimes, luck just really, really isn't on your side.

I've used Nudge a lot on Elimine in Aether Raids and on Silque in my infantry monthly quest team. There are definitely times when I wish I had Return, but also times when Nudge has been perfect. Given that it was a conscious choice to give Silque Nudge, there was a good reason to give her Nudge over other staff Assists. On an infantry-only team, it's very common that on your first turn in Training Tower maps, you'll end up putting your team in a square formation, which is not usually what you actually want since ranged enemies can attack over one of the lead units to hit Silque. Nudge allows you to push the adjacent lead unit 1 space away, putting Silque out of attack range. The main advantage of Nudge over Return here is that the usability of Nudge to get to the desired end position is not dependent on the starting positions of the team, which are not fixed in Training Tower, and are only dependent on if you can normally get your team into a square formation on the first turn. It's also worth noting that my infantry monthly quest team consists entirely of dual-phase units (currently Sothis, Flame Lyn, and Legendary Female Alear), which is why this setup works with Silque. A team with weaker enemy-phase performance would certainly prefer Return to do standard hit-and-run strategies. For flying units, like Fluffy Hat Nanna, it's probably better to run Return, at least for general use. Being able to Reposition an infantry or cavalry unit over impassible terrain is pretty useful and can't be done with Nudge, and Return is better-suited for the more typical hit-and-run playstyle.

Most of the weapons from the last 2 desert seasonal banners have had the effect, including all 3 of the inheritable weapons from those banners.

False Start is still currently only inflicted by Elimine. It's completely invalidated by Freyr, who shares an Aether Raids season with her, and it's completely useless in Summoner Duels due to start-of-turn effects activating simultaneously. These issues aren't with the effect itself, but with the method by which it's applied, which is as a start-of-turn effect. Changing it to an effect that activates when ending an action, like Ratatoskr's Divine Vein activation, would help immensely, but Elimine's remix is still roughly a year out. Phantom HP seems like the next-most useful Phantom effect to be added to the game. I'm also surprised we don't have more units that use their own max HP for comparison instead of their current HP, like Virion, and an effect converting all comparisons of current HP into comparisons using the unit's max HP seems like it would be a cool effect to add into the game, possibly as a secondary effect of Phantom HP. Pass needs a Sacred Seal. We've had Obstruct since forever ago.

The combat manual was announced a few hours before the Voting Gauntlet started, so even if some people hadn't yet seen the announcement, I don't think it'll make that much of a difference. Especially since a combat manual is still very different from (1) being on a banner, (2) being sparkable, and (3) potentially getting a free copy.

@Zeo As long as Ross is still surviving the initial attack, at least some of the loss of one stack of Gambit 4 can be made up for with the damage and healing from Aether. This is also the reason why Finish 4 is being recommended for the A slot, as it grants an additional 7 HP recovery on the attack that activates Aether (and any attack after that). Even without running Finish 4, I think it's still worth considering using Emblem Marth on him just to get a more consistent Aether. This all does still require getting Pledge, though. Without Pledge (or some other source of +1 Special charge rate), you're definitely better off with 5 stacks of Gambit 4. If you have Emblem Marth available and want to test out how well a 4-cooldown Aether performs defensively, see if you can find a teammate that can grant him +1 Special charge rate (Thorr, Duo Thorr, Legendary Hinoka, etc.) to simulate Pledge.

Amusingly, I think the only major disappointment I have with the lineup is that New Year Nerthuz isn't on it for Atk/Spd Wild. Notable skills for inheritance: Fodlan/Engage Halloween Seadall Atk/Res Finish 3 Inf. Null Follow 3 Celine Canto Control 3 Summer Ivy Still Water 4 Sabotage A/R 3 Soaring Guidance Winter Dimitri No Quarter Atk/Spd Prime 4 Rearmed Ingrid Arcane Luin Guard Bearing 4 Spd/Def Hold Awakening/Fates Valentine Hana Special Fighter 3 Bride Say'ri Life and Death 4 S/D Rein Snap Severa Godlike Reflexes Atk/Spd Finish 4 Buffer 4 Brave Corrin Armored Floe Counter Roar 4 A/S Far Save 3 Rearmed Lucina Arcane Thrima Atk/Spd Clash 4 Spd/Def Snag 4 Alarm Def/Res Heroes/Tellius Thief Sothe Atk/Def Rein 3 Ninja Heather Remote Sparrow Winter Black Knight Distant Dart Special Fighter 4 D/R Far Save 3 Brave Soren Flare Mag. Null Follow Time's Pulse 4 Ginnungagap Arcane Void Lethality Fireflood Boost 3 Fatal Smoke 4 GBA Young Rebecca Atk/Spd Finish 3 Null Follow-Up 3 Desert Juno Guard Bearing 4 Atk/Def Oath 4 Ascended Fir Atk/Spd Finish 4 Phys. Null Follow Atk/Spd Oath 4 Young Hector Armored Beacon Vengeful Fighter 4 D/R Far Save 3 Rearmed Tana Arcane Nastrond Deadeye Atk/Spd Unity Guidance 4 Jugdral Arthur Atk/Spd Ideal 4 Spd/Res Menace Teatime Sigurd Remote Sturdy Ascended Sety Atk/Spd Ideal 4 Special Spiral 4 Infantry Pulse 4 Tina Nudge+ Holy Pressure Atk/Spd Ideal 4 Wrathful Tempo Infantry Pulse 4 Rearmed Reinhardt Arcane Thunder S/R Far Trace 4 Def/Res Smoke 3 Heroes/Akaneia/Echoes Wind Catria Whitewind Bow+ Atk/Spd Catch 3 S/D Far Trace 3 Spring Triandra Firestorm Dance 3 Def/Res Hold New Year Kvasir Flash Sparrow Lull Spd/Res 4 Inf. Null Follow 4 Fallen Maria Nudge+ Holy Panic Atk/Spd Unity Poetic Justice Even Recovery 3 Rearmed Sonya Arcane Caliburnus Escape Route 4 Atk/Res Ploy 4