Ice Dragon

I wish the update were tomorrow night instead so that I could relax tonight. But it's here, so I'm doing this. Lethe: Brazen Cat Fang Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Spd With Blow-or-Solo condition (previously Solo condition): +6 Atk/Spd The offensive half of Null Follow-Up (new) +10 damage when Special activates (new) Standard transform condition and cavalry transform effect Refine effect: If HP is 25% or higher: +4 to all stats +1 Special charge rate If transformed: Guard effect Lethe's base kit says that she's intended to tank the opponent's counterattack and follow-up with a Special activation. This weapon does exactly that, and is really close to my prediction because of it. She effectively gets Flow Guard, Special Fighter, and the Wo Dao effect, which is great because she doesn't have access to an equivalent to any of those skill effects normally. This lets her run Moonbow (or Glimmer) and guarantee that her Special lands on her follow-up if the opponent can counterattack and doesn't have both Guard and the defensive half of Tempo. Alternatively, if the opponent has neither Guard nor Tempo, she can run Astra or Galeforce. The only downside to using Lethe is the fact she isn't particularly bulky, having only 30 base Def with max Dragonflowers and only a +4 boost from her weapon. Guard is nice, but she'll still get worn down after a few rounds of combat and is still vulnerable to Specials that are pre-charged and opponents with the offensive half of Tempo. Fallen Delthea: Death Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Res +5 to all stats (previously +4) Reduces opponent's Spd/Res by [unit's maximum Special cooldown + 1], minimum 1 (new) Nullifies opponent's Bonuses to Spd/Res (new) If unit attacked, unit takes 4 damage after combat Refine effect: Grimoire teleportation If opponent's HP is 75% or higher: +4 to all stats As expected, Delthea teleports. Other than that, she now gets a minimum of +12/12/9/12 when running a 2-cooldown Special (including the visible Res) and nullifies the opponent's Bonuses to Spd/Res. Her competition for a teleporting blue tome infantry is Legendary Byleth, who has -6/+1 offenses with max Dragonflowers and a weaker teleportation effect in exchange for the Slaying effect and a stronger-than-usual self-buff (+7 instead of +6). But since Delthea actively kills herself, she is unable to get the second stack of stats from Ideal after the first round of combat, whereas Byleth can trade the ability to nullify the opponent's Bonuses for Sweep. Even though Byleth is the better unit, it's still impressive that Delthea can even be compared to her and not lose completely. Summer Lyn: Deep-Blue Bow Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Spd Effective damage against armors With Blow condition or if opponent's HP is 75% or higher (previously 100%): +4 to all stats The offensive half of Null Follow-Up (new) The offensive half of Tempo (new) Bow common effect Refine effect: Slaying effect If HP is 25% or higher: +4 to all stats If opponent is melee-ranged and unit's Spd is at least 5 higher than the opponent's: Opponent cannot counterattack It's reassuring to know that the two most straightforward units in this batch got almost exactly the refines I hoped for because that means the designers actually know what these units' roles are and what they're missing in order to perform those roles. Lyn still can't use Deadeye properly without support to charge her Special, but she can at least now guarantee Ruptured Sky, so it's not too bad. Other than that, she literally got everything else she needed for wall breaking: Null Follow-Up, Tempo, and Sweep. That said, Lyn's Atk is still not particularly great, and getting +8 from her weapon is not enough for her to challenge Duo Hinoka, who not only has 7 more base Atk with max Dragonflowers, but also has a weapon with +9 Atk and targets the lower defensive stat. So while Lyn does have all of the skill effects for wall breaking, she's probably better as a general-use unit due to her higher Spd and her ability to Sweep opponents, even if she can't kill them outright. Yarne: Bunny Fang Base effect is updated: Permanent +3 Spd Effective damage against cavalry If unit's HP is 90% or lower after combat (previously 75%): -2 to Special cooldown With Solo condition or if HP is 90% or lower: +5 Atk/Spd (new) Standard transform condition and cavalry transform effect Refine effect: If opponent's HP is 50% or higher: +5 Atk/Spd Boosts damage by 10% of Spd (includes AoE Specials) If transformed: Guaranteed follow-up I'm confused. Yarne still has no effect on his weapon to keep him alive after his HP drops below 90%, which means he's stuck running Desperation in his B slot instead of something more interesting like his default Escape Route. I guess you could also run him with Blazing Wind + Life and Death 4 + Heavy Blade 3 and use his first round of combat to take damage. Fallen Tiki: Razing Breath Base effect is unchanged: Effective damage against dragons Distant Counter Dragon common effect Refine effect: If HP is 25% or higher: +4 to all stats Bonus Doubler If Bonus is active: With Blow condition: Guaranteed follow-up With Stance condition: Prevents opponent's follow-up So Tiki's weapon now effectively gives her +8 to all stats as long as her Bonuses aren't nullified, a guaranteed follow-up on player phase, and follow-up prevention on enemy phase. That's better than nothing, I suppose, but her competition is still Fallen Edelgard. For comparison, Tiki with an Atk Asset has +4/+0/+33/+0/-4 compared to Edelgard with an Atk Asset when Tiki has Bonuses from Solitary Dream and Edelgard has no Bonuses, both units with max Dragonflowers. However, Edelgard's B skill has both Special Fighter and damage reduction built in, whereas Tiki has to pick one or the other in that slot. Edelgard's weapon also has self-healing after combat, which allows her to reliably get the second stack of stats from Ideal, whereas Tiki can only reliably get one stack. Additionally, Tiki loses -8 to any stat that has its Bonus nullified, and while Lull skills are becoming less common due to an increase in the number of alternative skills in the B slot, they're still used often enough because they're easier to acquire (and Valentine Lucina shuts stat Bonuses down entirely). It also doesn't help that Tiki is stuck with the awful selection of Special skills that dragons have access to, which prevents her from running Galeforce for scoring. If she runs Dragon Wall instead of Special Fighter, she's stuck with either the largely non-functional Aether or the extremely weak Blue Flame due to its conditional damage conflicting with Solitary Dream. At the very least, she can hope that Legendary Eliwood's likely remix next month will fix some of her problems.

I'm glad to see HACCAN doing the art for another character. It's been more than a year since the last one. That particular shade of yellow is unfortunately my least favorite shade of yellow, but no one's perfect.

Added Nils's weapon to the translation notes.

He obviously can't have Rinkah's stat spread exactly since he's already missing 8 points due to being a dancer. I clearly just meant high Spd and Def with garbage Res, as those are the things that are notable in Rinkah's stat spread. Boosting Atk and Def is quite different from calculating an effect based off of the unit's Def, though. The former happens all the time (pointing to the fact that most of the recent inheritable weapons we've gotten are Atk/Def weapons), whereas the latter doesn't happen at all (if you ignore the first year or two when we got headscratchers like Klein with Glacies).

Null Follow-Up is weird as a Sacred Seal since it takes up the skill slot that grants the second-highest stat boost. Running the Null Follow-Up Sacred Seal on a fast unit is just asking to be out-sped by the same unit since you're typically losing a full 6 points of Spd by not running Atk/Spd Solo in that slot. I can definitely see it being run on slow wall breakers with guaranteed follow-ups to block follow-up prevention from some of the walls with middling Spd. I can also see it being run on tanks with middling Spd to prevent being broken by wall breakers. It also feels a bit odd to have Nils be the unit to come with the dragonstone version of Flame Gunbai, as that would imply that this version actually has a Def stat. Are they going to have him have Rinkah's stat spread? I'm also curious if Naga has a stat spread that can also use the weapon.

Yeah, he's fine running Spd Smoke, though in non-competitive modes, the extra damage reduction is probably unnecessary outside of some challenge maps.

It mostly depends on what you're using her for and who you're using her with. Atk/Spd Menace allows her to activate both stacks of Atk/Spd Catch without support from her teammates. It also gives her Atk/Spd Bonuses without support and can be helpful if you're running fliers with Catch + Rein as teammates, as they are unable to activate the second stack of Catch on their own. Def/Res Smoke requires a more aggressive play style, as she needs to engage in combat to apply the debuffs and Pathfinder, and then you need to have her teammates follow up to take advantage of them. If you're typically just picking off one enemy each turn (like what is common in the high Arena, for example), then Def/Res Smoke is mostly wasted. Fatal Smoke is specifically intended to be used for wall breaking (or Aether Raids defense).

Atk/Spd Menace for immediate power. Def/Res Smoke for mobility support. Fatal Smoke for wall breaking against self-healers. Pulse Smoke for turning off pre-charged Specials (Shield Pulse, Life Unending, etc.). I personally prefer Rally Atk/Spd+ or Harsh Command+ over Rally Up Atk+ in the Assist slot, but it's up to how you play.

We won't even have to wait that long. We'll get to see the art as soon as the character introductions are released. Duo Ike was the most recent. Duo Lif before that. Then Duo Sigurd. Then Duo Alm. Then Duo Alfonse, Duo Marth, and Duo Hector. Interestingly enough, every paired unit with a male character as the lead and a female character in the back has been a Duo pair and not a Harmonized pair.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if it were another censor for YouTube. I'm pretty sure it's not possible if you're on mobile. If you're on a computer, you can quote the post into the reply text box and then copy and paste the entire quote box into the edit text box.

The usual translation things: The name of the banner, "Divine Harvest", is "神と竜との収穫祭" (kami to ryū to no shūkakusai), "Harvest Festival of Gods and Dragons". Corrin's epithet, "Starry Seer", is "夜の星空の魔女" (yoru no hoshizora no majo), "Witch of the Starry Night Sky". Moonlight Stone is "月夜の魔女の竜石" (tsukiyo no majo no ryūseki), "Dragonstone of the Witch of the Moonlit Night". Atk/Spd Finish is "攻撃速さの秘奥" (kōgeki hayasa no hiō), "Atk/Spd Secret". In Heroes, "奥義" (ōgi), literally "secret skill", is the term used to refer to Special skills. This word is commonly used in video games in general to refer to special attacks. "秘奥義" (hiōgi), literally "secret secret skill", is commonly used to refer to "super" attacks. Corrin's epithet, "Celestial Sorcerer", is "星の夜の預言者" (hoshi no yoru no yogensha), "Prophet of the Starry Night". Starlight Stone is "星夜の魔術師の竜石" (seiya no majutsushi no ryūseki), "Dragonstone of the Magician of the Starry Night". Dragon's Ire is "竜の逆鱗" (ryū no gekirin), "Dragon's Reverse Scale". In East Asian mythology, dragons have a single scale on their body underneath their chin that grows in the reverse direction. Touching triggers the dragon to go into a frenzy. Naga's epithet, "Harvest Divinity", is "収穫讃えし神竜王" (shūkaku-tataeshi shinryūō), "Divine Dragon King Celebrating the Harvest". Serenity Breath is "幽静のブレス" (yūsei no buresu), "Breath of Serenity". Duma's epithet, "Strength and Love", is "力と愛の双竜神" (chikara to ai no sōryūjin), "Dual Dragon Gods of Strength and Love". Ghostly Lanterns is "赤と青の奇なる鬼火" (aka to ao no kinaru onibi), "Red and Blue Strange Will-o'-Wisps". "鬼火" (onibi), literally "demon fire" or "oni fire", is an analogous phenomenon to will-o'-wisps in the West. Distant Ferocity is "遠反・鬼神の構え" (enhan: kishin no kamae), "Distant Counter: Fierce Deity Stance". "遠反" (enhan) a contraction of "遠距離反撃" (enkyori hangeki), "long-range counterattack", which is the name of the Distant Counter skill. "鬼神の構え" (kishin no kamae), "fierce deity stance", is the name of the Fierce Stance skill. Woeful Upheaval is "試練メガクェイク" (shiren mega kweiku), "Ordeal Mega Quake". "メガクェイク" (mega kweiku), "mega quake", is the name of the Upheaval skill. Nils's epithet, "Wandering Star", is "永遠の星の旅人" (eien no hoshi no tabibito), "Eternal Traveler of the Stars". Or possibly "Traveler of the Eternal Star(s)". It's ambiguous whether "永遠の" (eien no), "eternal", modifies "星" (hoshi), "star", or "星の旅人" (hoshi no tabibito), "Traveler of the Stars". Surprise Breath is "一驚のブレス" (ikkyō no buresu), "Surprise Breath". Eir's epithet, "Life Ascendant", is "咲き誇る命" (sakihokoru inochi), "Life in Full Bloom". The word "咲き誇る" (sakihokoru), "to be in full bloom" or "to blossom in full glory", translates word for word as "to blossom and be proud of it". Ymir, Everliving is "永生ユーミル" (eisei yūmiru), "Immortal Ymir". There are multiple different words for "immortality" in Japanese. This particular word, "永生" (eisei), literally means "eternal life". Contrast with the more common "不死" (fushi), which literally means "undying", or the various words that imply permanence or other facets of immortality rather than "life" itself. Follow-up prevention is not as strong as Lantern Breath's Guard effect, but it actually affects Dragon Wall's stat comparison by modifying Res instead of just Atk, so there's at least a viable reason to use this one over Lantern Breath.

Holy shit. Naga as the 4-star. Duma as the lead for a Duma + Mila Duo. Nils as the Tempest Trials reward. Are they for real?

I'm not really convinced she'd be particularly great in Summoner Duels. A lot of maps have trees and trenches on them that make cavalry difficult to use offensively, and due to the cooldown on Ninian's Galeforce effect, she only gets the Galeforce effect twice on turns 2 and 5 or once on turn 3 or turn 4, and you can't choose to hold the activation for later without forgoing the Dance entirely. Additionally, since actions are interlaced, there is counterplay against Ninian's Sweep effect, as the opponent can expend a unit's action to clear its Penalties. In Aether Raids defense, her debuffs can be countered with Save tanks since they only hit the closest opponents, but it's possible to use Rally + Ruse setups to hope to hit the Near Save unit with a Penalty. That said, I'm not sure she has the firepower to actually break Save tanks, as her Atk stat isn't particularly amazing, her Spd stat isn't high enough to reliably double Valentine Lucina, and she lacks weapon triangle advantage against the most popular Near Save units (who are all green). Also, since she inflicts Isolation on herself after the Galeforce, she can be easy to bait out in the open. She shouldn't have trouble against teams without Near Save, though, as long as her team actually survives to turn 2. No idea about Aether Raids offense since I don't use Galeforce teams there, but having a dancer the Galeforces off of the Dance seems like a win for Galeforce teams since it's a free additional action.

I was mostly just bringing attention to the fact that even though Heroes gives out weapon effects mostly for gameplay reasons rather than to be faithful to the source material, effective damage is one of the few things it typically keeps intact. And while effective damage against everything would be interesting, it'd really just be easier to make the effect be "increases damage by 50% of unit's Atk". In both Gaiden and Echoes, Death is just a weapon with high damage and low accuracy, so I wouldn't be surprised if they just leaned into the "high damage" part and gave it some form of boost to Atk or damage (just not as high as 50% of the user's Atk).

Even if they release Duo Hector's refine next month and release 1 Special Hero refine each month after that to try to not fall behind, they're going to fall behind eventually if they don't start releasing 2 Special Hero refines each month. With a schedule of 1 Special Hero refine each month, the Special Hero backlog will fall behind the standard pool backlog around December 2023 or January 2024 (which is around when the standard pool backlog will reach the 2020 Fallen Heroes banner at the same time the Special Hero backlog reaches the 2020 Young Heroes banner). Yes, that's still a year away before they'll start to fall behind and be forced to change the number of refine "slots" awarded to each unit type per month, but if they're going to be forced to do it anyways, there's no reason why they couldn't just let the standard pool refines catch up first. Then we'd at least be getting refines for weapons of comparable strength each month instead of suddenly seeing refines for weapons with noticeably stronger base effects on the Special Heroes side of things. At least, that's how I would plan things if I were in charge. But I'm not in charge, and IS has shown that they can make strange decisions.

I don't see any reason why they would, given that Death is a weapon from the main series and not a Heroes-original weapon, and effective damage is one of the few weapon properties that actually consistently gets preserved in Heroes. After all, Legendary Caeda's Wing-Lifted Spear (despite its name in English, it's actually just a prefixed Wing Spear) doesn't have all of the effective damage against weapon types that Feather Sword and Dolphin-Dive Axe have. Given that there is only one more Special Hero from Book 3 waiting for a refine and that there is a pretty substantial time gap between Duo Hector's release (October 2019) and where the other categories currently are in their backlogs (Yarne was June 2019, Fallen Delthea was May 2019), I think it's likely that they'll skip releasing Special Hero refines for a couple months while the other categories catch up.

Xander would prefer to have the extra Spd to match opponents running Rally skills. Spd/Def Menace is also okay, but is less versatile than Atk/Spd Menace since you need to specifically attack a debuffed opponent to get the boost to damage, and it doesn't give you a boost to magic bulk (whereas Atk/Spd Menace gives you the boost to damage regardless of the target and only needs you to specifically attack a debuffed opponent to get a boost to bulk and gives both physical and magic bulk in this case). I would save Atk/Def Menace for a unit that can better use it unless you're really pressed for time to give Xander a more functional C skill than his base Feud.

Legendary Xander functions fine as a dual-phase unit. He just doesn't really benefit much from the follow-up prevention from Atk Smoke 4 due to having high Spd and Null Follow-Up and would prefer to have either Spd Smoke 4 or Atk/Spd Menace instead.

No new weapons, so no translation notes this time. Hopes and predictions, then: Lethe: Brazen Cat Fang Base effect is Permanent +3 Spd Atk/Spd Solo 3 Standard transform condition and cavalry transform effect It's pretty likely that the base effect's condition will be updated to a Blow-or-Solo condition like pretty much all other similar weapon effects. Lethe is a standard offensive cavalry unit, and her base weapon effect is just stats, which makes her a general-use unit with no real specialization. Her base kit consists of Moonbow, Spd/Def Solo, and Hone Beasts, which also doesn't say much. Because of this, it's hard to guess if they will keep her a general-use unit or give her a specialization, and if so, what specialization it will be. What her base kit does say is that she's intended to tank a counterattack and land her Special on her follow-up. As a beast unit, she doesn't have access to Flow, so she would prefer to get Null Follow-Up on her weapon. She's unable to land her Special if the opponent has Guard or if the opponent cannot counterattack, so she would like to either get Tempo, which she also doesn't have access to, or a Special charge rate boost. Since she's supposed to be tanking a counterattack, she'd also like damage reduction on the first hit. Fallen Delthea: Death Base effect is Permanent +3 Res +4 to all stats If unit attacked, unit takes 4 damage after combat This set of refines is full of units with no direction, and Delthea continues the trend. Death just grants stats and a small amount of recoil. Her base kit consists of Glacies, Death Blow, and Even Atk Wave and is also just stats. I'm expecting the refine to grant a teleportation effect on top of whatever combat effects they give it. Summer Lyn: Deep-Blue Bow Base effect is Permanent +3 Spd Effective damage against armors With Blow condition or if opponent's HP is 100%: +4 to all stats Bow common effect Deep-Blue Bow appears to be a wall breaker with its effective damage against armors and Lyn's default Sturdy Impact, but it's hindered by Lyn's low Atk stat, poor bulk, and lack of access to Null Follow-Up. Lyn has no Special by default and ideally would like to run Deadeye and receive effects that allow her to guarantee its activation in every round of combat. In a perfect world, this would be Null Follow-Up, Tempo, Slaying, and either +1 Special charge rate (or -1 Special cooldown at the start of combat) or the Brave effect. In a more perfect world, it would be Null Follow-Up, Slaying, and -2 Special cooldown at the start of combat. Additionally, she needs a better defensive effect than relying on Sturdy Impact. Percentage damage reduction and Sweep are both likely effects, as they can be found on other versions of Lyn. Yarne: Bunny Fang Base effect is Permanent +3 Spd Effective damage against cavalry If unit's HP is 75% or lower after combat: -2 to Special cooldown Standard transform condition and cavalry transform effect Yarne is clearly intended to have his HP drop below 50% and then spam Escape Route and Galeforce. The problem is that if he's running Escape Route, he has no way to keep himself alive once dropping below 50% HP since he can't simultaneously run Desperation. Ideally, he gets Miracle when above 50% HP to allow him to safely drop below 50% HP and either Desperation or Sweep below 50% HP to keep him alive. Since base Bunny Fang's only stat boost is the permanent stat effect, it's likely that it will get an update to its base effect to grant +5 Atk/Spd or something similar on top of the likely stat boost from the refine effect. Yarne certainly needs it since his Spd is pretty lackluster otherwise. Fallen Tiki: Razing Breath Base effect is Effective damage against dragons Distant Counter Dragon common effect Another unit with no direction. Distant Counter weapons typically don't get much from refines with the exception of CYL units, so I don't expect much. Fallen Tiki is the only fast colorless dragon armor, but her Spd stat is quite outdated by modern standards, and she gains no boost from her weapon. On release, she was intended to be a dual-phase unit, but her bulk was already unreliable on enemy phase at her release. Additionally, she has no access to Dodge, and her ability to use Dragon Wall is hindered by her low Res stat. Tiki ends up having to pick between either having some semblance of bulk with the rare Dragon's Wrath or having an almost-functional Special with Special Fighter and currently can't have both. Functionally, Fallen Tiki was a largely failed prototype for Fallen Edelgard, and it's unlikely Tiki will actually get the tools to compete because beast armor weapons have the excuse that they're "not actually Distant Counter weapons". I'm not really going to bother guessing what Tiki will get because Fallen Edelgard is her direct competitor, and she's not going to get anywhere close, so it's not going to matter.

The update notification has confirmed that Forma can be merged into another Forma. I don't think anyone was expecting this to not be the case, but it's still nice to have confirmation.

Not sure if I should laugh or cry. Either way, I'm done for now. I'll pull more later after I clean up my barracks a bit. 123 pulls: 3 Ninian (+1 spark) 7 Male Byleth 1 Xander 1 Lilina 1 Lilith 1 Tinny 1 Mila 12.2% focus rate, which is a massive 5 copies higher than average (~10). But it's all just Byleth, who is completely useless to me as fodder. But I did get a +Spd copy of Ninian and my first +Spd copy of Tinny, so that's pretty cool.

Oh right... I forgot to subtract the pair-up bonus from Nils.

And the usual translation notes: Ninian's epithet, "Ice-Dragon Oracle", is "氷竜の巫女" (hyōryū no miko), "Ice-Dragon Shrine Maiden". "巫女" (miko), "shrine maiden", is moderately commonly used in fiction in non-Japanese settings to refer to people who serve a similar role, hence "oracle". Faithful Breath is "神舞のブレス" (kamimai no buresu), "God-Dance Breath". "神舞" (kamimai), literally "god dance", redirects to "神楽" (kagura), "kagura", on the Japanese-language Wikipedia. Googling it gives me very little information of use. Dragon's Dance is "導き竜の血を継ぐ娘" (michibiki ryū no chi o tsugu musume), "The Girl Who Inherits the Blood of the Guiding Dragon". Her weapon gives her Sweep if the opponent is blue or if the opponent has a Penalty. I'm personally not trusting a unit with 44/23/25 defenses to tank no matter how much damage reduction you can stack. And 55% damage reduction is certainly not enough. Legendary Ninian also lacks the defensive half of Null Follow-Up entirely and loses the offensive half of Null Follow-Up on enemy phase, which is not great for a Spd tank. For damage, it mostly just depends on whether you want her to trade Canto and a bit of Spd for better wall breaking ability. Personally, I'd save Dragon's Wrath for a unit with middling Spd and a guaranteed follow-up. For scoring, sure.

Since they wanted to show off her fancy Dance skill, we get to see her stats, which are 44/39/43/23/25. That's some scary offense when you consider that she has a 19-Mt weapon, free +12/6 from buffs and debuffs, the offensive half of Null Follow-Up, and Sweep with a hilariously trivial condition. With max Dragonflowers, that's 40/44 offenses, which can be compared to Legendary Xander's 44/43 and Summer Nifl's 40/45 for context. She also gets a Dance version of To Change Fate!, which is going to be so much fun to deal with in the Arena. Can you hear how excited I am to have to deal with this. Thankfully, the Galeforce effect has a 3-turn cooldown, which means if you can keep her away from you until turn 3, you won't have to deal with it for a few turns. Unlike Ash, who only gets one laser, Ninian has an entire battery of lasers. I like lasers. I guess it's time I break out my bottle of bourbon. I haven't had much need of it this year, but I think it's finally time.

Ninian was expected. Cavalry was not. My wallet has broken down in the corner and is crying.