MLB 2012

[Model Emu]

Yeah I think Lincecum will come back too. For maintaining longterm success though, he'll probably need to adjust his delivery, because he isn't getting younger and that delivery has really herky-jerky and has alot of moving parts to keep in sync.

There were always rumors about Colon, taking something when he made his comeback last year, he was just so damn good for a while there. It was crazy to watch, he'd throw like one non-fastball a game and still have eight innings of 2 run ball.

[Helios]

Yeah I'd rather not see him become the next Dontrelle Willis, who wasn't able to control his pitches anymore and is now in the minors or something. They say he had anxiety issues as well but I'm not sure how much I really bought that...

Well Colon knows how to pitch; he's a vet. He used to be dominant too back in the day. But I agree that with all the rumors going about him it's not all that surprising. Looks like it's a Cali thing.

What are your thoughts on teams shutting down their young pitchers for the year while in a playoff race? Do you think guys like Strasburg and Sale will actually miss their last couple starts?

[Model Emu]

I think the Nats definitely should've skipped Strasburg a couple of times, gone to a six-man rotation or had the GM or manager pull him aside like a month ago, tell him that he has elbow soreness and throw him on the DL until the second week of September then reactivate him to shake off the rust to get ready for a run.

It'd be harder to do any of that in Sale's case because he is the best starter on the White Sox staff and they're in a really tight race with seven head to head games with the Tigers left, whereas Strasburg is the third best starter right now on the Nats and they have a fairly comfortable divisional lead with only three games left against the second place Braves.

[Helios]

I feel like doing that would have actually been risky though since you don't know how a pitcher will pitch after taking that much time off. Strasburg is third in the league in Ks and has 15 wins; he's been pitching REALLY well. However, now the problem of taking him out during the most meaningful games of the season will be tough and the fans won't be happy (and the players aren't either).

The difference between the ChiSox and Nats is that the Nats have the pitching depth to deal with losing Strasburg, whereas like you said Sale is clearly the best pitcher Chicago has (as well as a Cy Young contender). As a Tigers fan I really hope that they shut Sale down, but I don't think they will. I was watching Baseball Tonight on ESPN last night and Curt Schilling said something about how Sale's armslot puts less wear and tear on the pitcher than Strasburg's...not exactly sure how true that is because I swear my arm always hurt more pitching sidearm than pitching from the 3/4 armslot but I guess that's one way to look at it.

Speaking of good pitching though, who does everyone feel the best pitchers this year are? Who would win the Cy Young?

As a Tigers fan I'm obviously biased towards Verlander and Scherzer (who are 1 and 2 in Ks, respectively) but Weaver, Sale, Price, and of course King Felix are definitely up there too. I think if I had to choose the Cy Young winner for the AL I'd choose Verlander: First in K's, Innings Pitched, and WAR, while second in WHIP and ERA. He's also thrown at least 6 innings in every start but one (which was stopped by a rain delay; damn Red Sox). Only argument against him is his Wins/Losses record, but as we've seen with King Felix and The Freak in the past that doesn't matter as much. I think I'd give King Felix second place (I mean he threw a perfect game), Price a close third, and Weaver fourth.

In the NL I think the race is a lot closer. You got Matt Cain (who threw a perfect game earlier in the year too), Kershaw, Cueto of the Reds, and the knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Since I don't focus as much on the NL I haven't seen these guys pitch as much as I see the AL ones, but I think Johnny Cueto wins the Cy Young in the NL. Guy leads the NL in WAR, Wins, and ERA. His WHIP, Ks, and IP are also pretty damn good as well. In second Cain, then third Kershaw, then fourth Dickey.

[Model Emu]

Yeah shutting Strasburg down for a while then reactivating him would be risky, but if the Nats want him for the playoffs this year it's probably their only option (if they do infact have a limiting factor) and I think they'd want him because they have a really good shot at at getting to the World Series. Their top three this season is like the 90's Braves and then whomever they'd choose as a fourth starter would still be above average.

I have a bum rotator cuff and I can throw more balls with out soreness from a lower arm angle, but I've always heard that 3/4 produces the least wear and tear on an arm.

The AL Cy in my book is a push between Hernandez and Verlander, with Price a hair behind them.

I also don't watch the NL that closely, but the NL Cy does really look congested, as you pointed out. I'd love to see Dickey win it, though I too believe Cueto should be the favorite currently.

[Helios]

I'd still be worried if I was an NL team going up against the trio of Gonzalez, Zimmerman and Jackson. I think it's because of that pitching depth that they aren't afraid of shutting down Strasburg. But still this is definitely a good chance for them to make the WS and everything seems to be clicking for them this year, so I'm really not sure that they won't put him on their 25 man playoff roster.

Ahh I see. Maybe it's just me then?

Hernandez's perfect game helps him out, but the fact that he plays for the Mariners doesn't. Though playing for a losing team doesn't affect the Cy Young as much as the MVP, I wonder if it'll play a factor for the voters.

I'd love to see Dickey win it as well, but I doubt they'd give a knuckleballer that honor. Cueto's just been too dominant (based off what I've seen from highlights and a game on ESPN at least) not to pick though.

[Helios]

So the Dodgers placed a claim on Adrian Gonzalez of the Red Sox. I figured the Red Sox would just take him off waivers....but they're actually close on a deal to send him there...wtf are the BoSox thinking?

[Model Emu]

I'd think the Nats would use all 25 roster spots on guys they are going to use in the postseason, but they'll have Strasburg around in some capacity.

Hernandez won the Cy in 2010 on a team with 101 losses and had a 13-12 record, so a bad win-loss didn't seem to mean that much to the voters in said year.

Cueto has been dominante, but I've been seeing some build up for Aroldis Chapman who's been putting up some crazy numbers as a reliever.

The Red Sox are a complete quagmire and the owners have no idea what they're doing.

[Helios]

What I was trying to say is it'd be tough NOT to use Strasburg, or to at least not let yourself have the OPTION of using him. You're allowed to switch your roster around every series though right? Maybe he might not be on during the first round, but if they manage to make it to the LCS or WS....

This IS true. However, King Felix was DOMINANT that year and deserved it with his numbers. Verlander, though dominant as well, isn't having a year like he did last year. At the same time though, NO ONE is having a year like Verlander did last year. The thing is though Scherzer has 14 wins compared to Verlander's 12 (and possibly 13 tomorrow). If Scherzer ends the year with more wins would that play a factor?

I forgot relievers can actually win the Cy Young lol. Chapman has been crazy good and looks unhittable at times. He'll get some votes, but I doubt he'd actually win anything more than "Reliever of the Year".

That's gotta be the only explanation. I get that they want to shed salary, but Gonzalez is a top 3 first baseman in the game right now and you locked him up for 6 more years for a reason. Sure he's not having career numbers this year but he was pretty damn good last year and pretty damn good in his career. He's also an outstanding defender rivaling Pujols and Teixera. For the second best prospect in the Dodgers organization, was it really worth giving him away? Crawford and Beckett were explainable (I honestly thought the signing of Crawford last year was a horrible idea) but they should have found a way to get rid of their salary without giving up Gonzo. Glad I'm not a BoSox fan or else I'd be pissed.

[Model Emu]

Ok I see what you mean on Strasburg, you really want arms like Strasburg in high pressure relief late in the postseason. But from what I've been reading once he's shutdown, he's shutdown.

Scherzer isn't going to win the Cy, beyond strikeouts and wins, his numbers are middling to above average.

Chapman is putting up Eric Gagne circa '03 numbers, but you're right, voters will probably forget that relievers exist.

I think Red Sox fans have accepted that all that good mojo that the Sox built up as the Idiots is gone and I bet some revel in the sucktitude that was so familiar for decades. The Sox really do need pitching, but guys like Gonzales (guys who can work the monster for a ton of hits) are rare. They overpaid Crawford by tens of millions of dollars and Beckett was stinking up the joint and fans hated both. I also wonder how they plan on rebuilding, there really is no one good becoming a free agent in 2013 or 2014 who is under 30 and the through the draft will probably take a decade minimum.

[Helios]

Exactly! Yeah they're saying that, but all I can say is they're gonna be tempted if the situation arises.

Oh no I'm not saying Scherzer is contending for the Cy Young at all -- like you said apart from the wins and Ks he's got nothing extraordinary -- but could Verlander win the Cy Young even if he doesn't have the most wins on his team? King Felix, albeit having only 13 wins, still had the most wins on his team.

Yeah he definitely deserves some votes at the very least. I just looked at his numbers and he only has 15 walks to 112 strikeouts in only 62 innings pitched. 112 Ks...that's almost averaging 2 Ks an inning. That's just amazing. And only 15 walks while throwing over 100 mph...wow. That's just flat out dominance.

I just took a look at the 2013 FA class (potentially) and there were a few big name hitters out there, but chances are they'll resign with their respective clubs. They'll have to really overpay for Josh Hamilton if they want him. Also it's possible that LA won't be able to resign Andre Ethier after all the expensive contracts they just received from the Red Sox. Guys like Micheal Bourn, BJ Upton, and Shane Victorino will also be FAs. I think they like Will Middlebrooks so I doubt they'd go for David Wright; plus I believe the Mets will try and keep him long-term especially with their success this year and the loss of Jose Reyes. I do know that the Red Sox have those pitching prospects the Dodgers gave him (Webster is gonna be pretty good) and they have a really good RF coming up as well. I think that if the management don't act like complete dumbasses, they can manage to at least get a team with wildcard potential.

[Model Emu]

To the best of my knowledge the only Cy young winners without the team lead in wins were relievers.

What's even crazier is that Chapman has only allowed earned runs in June and August.

Hamilton poses so much risk and crazy Sawx fans won't help his psyche much. There would be trepidation on my part if I were management with Bourn and Victoino as they're in similar situations to Crawford (base-stealer going into their thirties). Upton could probably had for less money and is slightly lower risk and he still feels like a player who might not be fully realized.

And management screwing up feels likely to me.

[Helios]

Okay WTF Cy Young contenders. First Price sucks balls yesterday and now Verlander is throwing his worst game of his career.

Yeah I felt like that was a contributing factor. I honestly think that after this start against KC that Verlander is having right now his Cy Young standing is in jeopardy.

Yeah and the reason why he had earned runs in June is because he blew a game against the Tigers due to some seriously lucky hitting. What do you think about the haters saying Chapman is being wasted as a closer and should be a starter?

Agreed that Hamilton should NOT go to a bigger market than Texas. I really think he'll resign with them but Boston's got that $$$ to make things happen. I think that they should go for Bourn though because out of those types of players, he actually seems to be getting better. Guy is having a hell of a year with the Braves. BJ Upton seems like he'll never realize his full potential but at the same time he could be a steal. I feel like he'll go to a smaller team though for a decent price that's too expensive for Tampa Bay.

You must not like the BoSox haha. Actually, now that I think about it...which team do you root for?

[Model Emu]

I'd say Hernandez is now the distinct AL Cy frontrunner, but a lot can happen in a month.

If I remember correctly, Chapman wasn't great as a starter in the minors and he only has two pitches with no hint of developing a third, so he's probably most effective coming out of the pen.

Crawford had also just had two of his best seasons before Boston signed him, but Bourn might be better suited if he has greater mental fortitude than Crawford, who I guess couldn't handle the crazy Boston media, and doesn't physically crumble.

Someone will bite on Upton just, because of the flashes that he's shown.

I'm a big Yankees fan, so the Sawx dislike is innate.

[Helios]

Agreed. Those were just some bad starts by Price and Verlander, and what horrible timing for them as well seeing as they're in the wild card race.

I can't remember him starting but agreed that his stuff is used best out of the pen. You can't throw 100 mph every pitch for 6-7 innings, and as fast as it is 95 mph fastballs are hittable when you're expecting it. I thought he was developing a changeup but I guess not.

I'm not sure about Bourn's mental stability; he only played in HTown and Atlanta so far. I just think he's an underrated great player, at least for us guys who focus on the AL. It'll be interesting to see how Crawford does as a Dodger.

Agreed. The guy has a lot of potential and someone will believe they can get him to reach it.

What do you think of the Orioles and Rays creeping up on you?

[Model Emu]

Tampa scares me more than the O's, because they can really pitch, Maddon out maneuvers Girardi at every corner and they brought back Carlos Pena, whom, as a Yankee fan, I fear more than any individual player. In a close game I just know he's going to burn the Yanks. I miss the Devil Rays.

[Helios]

Yeah I agree; the Rays are just one of those teams that can grind out a win any day. I was pissed when we let go of Pena when he was a Tiger, but ehh it worked out in the end with Cabrera and now Fielder. I honestly just don't know how the Orioles win games with a negative run differential.

[Tony]

Die-hard Phillies phan here... May be out of the race, but we're putting the hurt on the Braves!

Anyway on topic, The Rays always know what they're doing. It's amazing how year in and out since '08 they are right there. They have a legitimate chance to win the AL East, if not only because they probably have a ton of games left with the Yankees.

Heard the Tigers won tonight Helios! Must be happy

[Model Emu]

Goddamn Yanks lost again today.

The O's are winning close games, but are getting shelled quite a bit too. That's how they have a -35 run differential, but are still 15 games over .500. I'm pretty sure that they're flukey and will regress to about a .500 team next year.

The Rays front office really know what they're doing, they drafted really well for a decade (high picks help too, but baseball picks are a crap shoot) and pick up guys off of the scrap heap (primarily relievers) who end up being significant contributors. Joe Maddon also really knows how to get everything possible out of his roster.

[Helios]

@Count Reglay: I think you guys will do a LOT better next year. With Halladay and Lee on the same team, less injuries, and the offense not all deciding to have career lows at the same time, it's tough to not see them get into the wild card race.

I'm ecstatic man. We have a chance to take the division lead if we win tonight against the ChiSox. Sale's going to be a tough matchup though and I swear we seem to be terrible against lefties. Our schedule for the rest of the year is relatively pretty easy though, and we've always seemed to crush our own division, so if we can win this game I think we can actually keep the lead for a change.

@Model Emu: The O's are just pissing me off because of how good they're doing. It's not like I have anything against them...it's just that I don't understand how they're winning with some of the players they have and their run differential. They seem to just take everyone's meh players and put them on one team (Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis for example) along with their own stars (Adam Jones, Wieters, etc). They're alright but this just looks like a fluke. I thought even the Blue Jays were better. Buck is a good coach though and he's getting them to play their best. Machado looks awesome though; really excited to see him keep playing.

Speaking of awesome shortstop prospects that Profar guy from Texas looks pretty awesome too. The guy is as old as I am and hit a homerun his first AB...insane.

The Rays manage like a video game with the way they buy low and sell high. All those years of absolute crap they were as the Devil Rays stocked up their farm to become a never-ending supply of solid players. Add that with the best coach in the league in Maddon, and awesome pitching, and you got yourself a great team. It helps that Fernando Rodney is playing better than he did with the Tigers when he got 30+ saves. That guy has a hell of a changeup.

[Model Emu]

Saw something on ESPN yesterday that said it was Strasburg delivery style that makes him exert more force on his elbow and shoulder than a typical pitcher, because his motion has his hand further from his release point when he plants his foot. So if this all is true it means heightened risk for arm injuries and second Tommy John surgeries have a significantly lowered succes rate than a first one. The thing is that he could really blow out his elbow on any pitch so in that way the innings limit would be meaningless, but from the standpoint of compounding fatigue damaging his arm and that he needs to build up stamina for a full 200+ inning season it makes sense.

[Helios]

I wonder if they'll try and fix up his delivery a little bit in the offseason in order to help preserve his arm a little more? I believe they said the reason why he's so electric though is because of his delivery, so I'm not sure if it would work out very well. Schilling said it's probable that Strasburg will be on the DL often in his career. Let's hope not though, for the sake of the game at least.

[Model Emu]

Strasburg is something special. Having 3+ pitches, a plus fastball and command out of all of them so fresh into the league is incredible.

[Helios]

He's like Verlander when it comes to stuff, but like 5 years younger. As long as the guy doesn't get injured, he could be a hall of fame pitcher. He's only going to get better which is the crazy part.

[Tony]

He's like Verlander when it comes to stuff, but like 5 years younger. As long as the guy doesn't get injured, he could be a hall of fame pitcher. He's only going to get better which is the crazy part.

Yeah. Imagine being in the same division with him

Although, after we traded Pence and VIctorino at the deadline, we faced him and touched him up for 6 runs- the most he'd given up to any team at that point.

I think the Marlins beat that record recently however.

I agree. He does have Verlander stuff. However I doubt he'll be able to hit 90+ MPH in the 9th inning like Verlander can at any stage in his career. Verlander is so amazing in that regard.