Carnival Phantasm Mafia

[nano]

My problem is not with your thoughts on Paper at the time, it's with the redirector comment. From what I've seen in other games, redirector is not a standard, see-it-every-game sort of role, and someone saying there's a redirector when there's been no evidence of one is strange. It makes me think you have info I don't. The fact that your next post backpeddled from this (you said your reasoning was wrong and then concluded that the silencer was town and had info on Paper) suggests to me that you realized you slipped up.

http://www.smogon.co...ue5/mafia_roles

This is what I read and redirector was listed on that. The title says common mafia roles and I assumed it to be true. Maybe it's just not a common role in SF mafia?

When I said my reasoning was wrong I was referring to the part where I talked about the messages. I said there was no reason to silence him because he can still use messages to make key contacts, which of course applies to everyone, including town leaders. It still serves a purpose though since this is limited contact after all. I didn't say it out clearly I guess, I didn't think it was important. I definitely did not "conclude" that the silencer was town, I just said that it's possibility that can be explained without the existence of a redirector.

But the opinions you post generally just echo what others have already said. Again, the problem here is that this has been a repeated thing: when the majority of your opinions are nothing but echoing, that is quite scummy.

It's not something I can help with. I did not have much in the way of unique opinions, and just by browsing through the discussions I would of course be mostly likely to arrive at the most popular conclusion. It's the most popular because most people agree with it, after all.

I generally try to quote whatever I'm specifically talking about and I try to avoid making my posts stupidly giant (not that I always succeed). I did indeed search your posts for a purpose: as I said in my original post, in order to start some discussion I post-searched the bottom four people on BBM's scum list and posted my thoughts about them. I continued to find you the most suspicious, and went on to explain why using examples from your posts. The reasoning you keep pointing does not explain the redirector comment, which is what I was specifically talking about.

Up to this point, aside from your first jokevote, you have voted on a bandwagon with not much reasoning (Marth vote), sheeped the Town leader with not much reasoning (Straw), and voted me because I'm examining your posts and saying they're scummy. Your voting history is pretty scummy at this point.

See above.

You say I didn't have much reasoning in my votes, and I agree. Both had a some reasoning, but they were shaky and not that definitive. As I have repeatedly pointed out I didn't find enough evidence to accumulate into a vote, and I made those two votes because I was forced to. Naturally the reasonings won't be very good.

This reasoning doesn't sit well with me because again, you're not committing to an opinion. Read back through BBM's posts, and see what reads you get.

I did it yesterday after he purposed to receive my claim. There was nothing that strike me as out of place unfortunately.

That quote was the reasoning? It never occurred to me that quote had been an explanation for your vote on Strawman, because it doesn't explain why he was scummier than any of the other lurkers, including you. In fact, it doesn't mention Strawman at all. If you were suspicious of Strawman, why didn't you say anything about him earlier in the day? You voted Strawman only after I prompted you to place a vote at all, without having had any prior suspicions of him. And then you explained your vote without ever mentioning Strawman or what made him in particular so scummy. This looks to me like sheeping on Prims and then struggling to find a reason for it.

Well, I can provide some reasonings now, but they were already mentioned by others. Why wouldn't I vote for the person with the most amount of negative evidence already available. I mean, he has the most amount of negative evidence against him after all.

I don't agree with this whole 'voting the most popular choice = scummy' logic . Should the town really be scattered and voting for different targets just so they look more town? The most popular choice is usually the one with the highest amount of evidence piled against him, should I just ignore that so I don't appear scummy?

Anyway I think I'm going off topic now. The bottom line is that I have already claimed to Prims, so it's silly to lynch me today when you can have ample opportunity to do it tomorrow. You'll get Prims' opinion tomorrow, as well as possibly some other evidences that may clear me. I claimed to Manix too, so it's not even that I deliberately picked the silenced target.

[nano]

I need to go now, I'll respond to you later when I come back.

[BBM]

Voting for the person with the most negative evidence against them is not scummy in and of itself. It becomes scummy when that's the only vote you can come up with after days and is the same as what others are doing, because it makes it look like you're not putting your own thought into it, and are doing it to blend in.

Also, Smogon must have very different games than we do on SF, because half of those roles are not common at all.

[Grace]

Reminder: Clipsey was redirected N1, so the redirecting comment by nano is valid, except for it wasn't targeted at Paper in any way. I suspect the reason Paper was silenced is because he is a vet and the maf didn't want him to be able to say much. And given the fact that he's Question Asker, it's a prefectly plausible target for a silencer as well.

Reminder that the is also a scum roleblocker, because they hit Marth N1 and me N2. ie, the scum team has a redirecter, silencer and a roleblocker.

Now the question is: Who has what?

This whole thing betweeen Subieko and nano is making me think that if one of them flips town, the other is scum, but the converse does not hold true. They could be two scumbuddies trying to give the other town cred when they lynch the other, ala a free pass to the end of the game. Yeah no. Anything is still a possibility.

[BBM]

That makes sense, I suppose. Iris is now the most scummy player, IMO, because we asked her to post some good content, and she came in, claimed, made one or two one-line posts, and left again. Nano has, at least, attempted to defend himself. I'm thinking the scumteam is made up of Iris, nano/Subieko, and Helios, IMO. Helios has vote-hopped a lot this phase and started by weirdly voting Psych. Haze might also be in there, because I don't like how he hasn't posted a single time this phase, even though his profile says he was online earlier today.

[Grace]

I have a theory. We figure out how to prove the claims of Subieko and nano if possible, and just lynch Iris today? To be fair, persuader isn't going to help us that much now, will it? Also, considering it's a one-shot... yeah, not the most useful thing for town, if it is true. Besides, the persuade can be faked by a scumbuddy, so that's also to be considered.

I'd vote Iris, but I already am. :/

Tip guys: Vote Iris or at least give me a good reason why you shouldn't.

[Grace]

also BBM: We have seen all of those roles aside from thief (from the article) in recent-ish games.

Inspector: yep

Bodyguard: Schoolgirl

Hooker: This game, and many many others

Vig: hi

Mayor: Schoolgirl, GSM, PMD, etc

Rogue: Limited one in Haphazard

Silencer: hi

Mole: GSM, iirc

Miller: GSM as well

Question Asker: hi

Announcer: PMD, Haphazard, this game (apparently)

Kidnapper: Training OC, etc.

Safeguard: hi

Twins/Lovers: SFMM2

Redirector: hi

Resurrector: GSM (which was meeeeeee)

so yeah. The only reason we don't see thief is because items are stupid

[Grace]

hi Helios and Subieko

I seeeeeeee you

Address the Iris issue please.

[BBM]

But when I think Common, I think roles that are in nearly every game, not that are in maybe one of every couple games.

[Grace]

hmmmmmm

eh, in that case

none of the roles are really that common, except maybe cop and hooker

[Helios]

I'm going to have to politely disagree with your theory, Manix. Though I'm not entirely sold on Iris myself, right now we know there's a scum silencer, roleblocker, and redirecting role. Those right now are way more powerful than a persuader, and we know for a fact one or both of subieko or nano are scum right now and are either a silencer, roleblocker, or redirector. I think it'd be wiser to have one of those two lynched (and I think nano is the scummiest right now for reasons I've stated before) and deal with Iris next phase when she (hopefully) has more time to talk and help scumhunt. I don't want to see another townie lynched right now. Just my two cents.

[Subieko]

hi Helios and Subieko

I seeeeeeee you

Address the Iris issue please.

I was in the middle of writing a post when you posted this.

Reminder: Clipsey was redirected N1, so the redirecting comment by nano is valid

I had thought Nano's comment happened before Eclipse said she was redirected. If Eclipse said it first then yeah, Nano's comment isn't odd at all. My bad. I stand by the rest of my arguments though.

We figure out how to prove the claims of Subieko and nano if possible, and just lynch Iris today? To be fair, persuader isn't going to help us that much now, will it?

I don't like this argument much, because at this point more mislynches is too risky to lynch a claim because it's not useful. If you want an Iris lynch, explain your reasoning to me. I've already posted my thoughts re: Iris--why do you think she's a better target than nano?

Agreed with BBM though that Iris needs to get in here and post about what's going on. Dropping a claim and leaving doesn't make me happy. Once I see what she has to say, I may change my evaluation of her.

Haze might also be in there, because I don't like how he hasn't posted a single time this phase, even though his profile says he was online earlier today.

Haze has been active lurking for most of the game, actually.

Also I just realized nano is a guy and I've been calling him a she this whole game. Sorry nano *facepalm*

[Helios]

hi Helios and Subieko

I seeeeeeee you

Address the Iris issue please.

I also was in the middle of a post when you said this, and I addressed it. Your thoughts?

[Grace]

and that puts you next on my target list if Iris flips scum

thanks!

Did you miss the entire point of what I said? Policy lynching Iris because of her actions in this game (read: not many and not looking too great), and the fact the persuader isn't that useful to town, and can be easily faked by mafia is why I want to lynch her.

[Grace]

that goes toward both of you, btw, now that you have ninja'ed me to high heaven

[Subieko]

and that puts you next on my target list if Iris flips scum

thanks!

Did you miss the entire point of what I said? Policy lynching Iris because of her actions in this game (read: not many and not looking too great), and the fact the persuader isn't that useful to town, and can be easily faked by mafia is why I want to lynch her.

So you want to lynch her because her posts have been few and not that useful, and because Persuader is not a great claim. Problem with this is that nano has fewer posts which are far less useful (Haze also has fewer actually, now that I think about it), so I see nano as scummier and therefore a better target. Also I have no idea what nano is claiming, so I can't say whether it's better or worse than a Persuader claim, or even if nano's claim can be proven.

Why is Iris a better target than nano? If you present me with a lynch target that is less scummy than the person I'm already voting for, I'm not all that motivated to change my vote.

[Helios]

and that puts you next on my target list if Iris flips scum

thanks!

Did you miss the entire point of what I said? Policy lynching Iris because of her actions in this game (read: not many and not looking too great), and the fact the persuader isn't that useful to town, and can be easily faked by mafia is why I want to lynch her.

*sigh*

I see what you're saying, but I don't think you realize how dire our situation is here. If we mislynch here, we're at MYLO D4, and we don't learn ANYTHING from lynching Iris (kinda similar to how we didn't really learn anything from killing Strawman). However, if we lynch Nano this phase, we learn a LOT about Subieko. If we lynch Iris, and she flips town, then we're still in the same dilemma that we are with Nano and Subieko, and if we lynch one of them D4 and they're town too, we lose the game. That's why I think it's best to lynch either Nano or Subieko, and IMO Nano is looking quite a bit scummier. I also recall you saying Subieko had a good role that could help us out and I'd rather not risk losing that.

[Grace]

Okay, let's put it this way:

If we lynch Iris, and she flips town, then it looks better on you that you tried to defend her. On the other hand, if she flips scum (and if Prims still has a nightvig shot, please please please shoot Iris), then it looks so very bad on you. Your (and Helios') not wanting to lynch Iris looks very scummy if it would clear you. The only reason you wouldn't want to be cleared is if you were scum.

And I have another plan no matter what the lynch is, which involves Psych's question asking capacity.

Also, I've heard of really weak town roles, and one-shot persuader, doublevoter and vote remover is one of them.

I'm not decided on either of you and nano, I just want to leave that stuff to the next day, when actions have gone in.

At this point, I think I might put your claim in thread to see what the others have to think about it. Any objections?

[Grace]

we mislynch Iris, we confirm pretty much the rest of the game tonight. Think about it:

Confirmed town (of which one should likely die):

Me

Prims

Haze (won't die)

BBM (won't die)

Psych (likely)

If only 4 of those people are left, they are the confirmed town, because it'll be 4-3 on a mislynch. Ie, lynch our way to victory.

If Iris flips scum, we aren't at MyLO, and we get more time.

Eh? you were sayyyyyyyyyyyying

[Psych]

Manix has the right idea, and Helios either isn't thinking right, or trying to save Iris as his scum buddy.

It's possible Manix is bussing Iris, but I don't think we need to take a look too closely into that until tomorrow if we mislynch. Cause that would have to be pretty unlikely as well as a few other things.

##Unvote, Vote Iris

[Helios]

Currently there are 6 town and 3 Mafia.

Mislynch today = 5-3

NK = 4-3

Mislynch D4 = 3-3, scumwin

If scum is even REMOTELY intelligent, they're going to keep both nano and subieko alive because we have no idea about them right now. They will probably kill you or Prims since you two are arguably most obvtown, and Haze and BBM are risky to kill. Nano and Subieko would theoretically be the lynch targets D4, and we'll have a 50/50 chance of lynch or mislynch. That's too risky to me.

What I suggest is we lynch either Nano or Subieko. Nano flips scum, it makes Subieko look A LOT better and then we take care of Iris. If Nano flips town, we get an easy lynch with Subieko and we'll be up 4-2. Right now I think a highly probably 4-2 is our best choice.

[Subieko]

Okay, let's put it this way:

If we lynch Iris, and she flips town, then it looks better on you that you tried to defend her. On the other hand, if she flips scum (and if Prims still has a nightvig shot, please please please shoot Iris), then it looks so very bad on you. Your (and Helios') not wanting to lynch Iris looks very scummy if it would clear you. The only reason you wouldn't want to be cleared is if you were scum.

This doesn't make sense. How does defending Iris = you're Town if she's Town? And your point about lynching her to clear myself is bizarre, because that would require me to lynch her while believing she is Town. Why would I ever lynch someone I believe is Town? This is starting to feel like you're searching for reasons why Iris is the best lynch.

Also, I've heard of really weak town roles, and one-shot persuader, doublevoter and vote remover is one of them.

Did you make a typo here or something? Because this sentence says 'I have heard of Town roles similar to Iris' claimed role'.

I'm not decided on either of you and nano, I just want to leave that stuff to the next day, when actions have gone in.

Yeah, see, I would rather decide who is most likely to be scum and lynch them now, rather than giving someone I believe to be scum another night to use their ability. Particularly since I don't know what nano's claim is or how it would need to be proved.

At this point, I think I might put your claim in thread to see what the others have to think about it. Any objections?

If you feel it's necessary, but it would decrease the usefulness since roleblocker exists. Unless you safeguard me I guess. Since you can't receive any more SMS messages we couldn't really coordinate targets except in the thread anyway.

[Grace]

*facepalm*

you are not reading my post properly, are you? THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE TO LYNCHING IRIS. We can confirm the town tomorrow quite easily if it is a mislynch, and if not, then town wins.

Here's the thing, WE WON'T MISLYNCH D4 if Iris is a mislynch.

come on dude, I thought you were better than that.

[BBM]

The more and more I think of it, the less sure I get of Haze. He's been mostly absent after his PGO claim and the discussion surrounding it. And this phase, he echoed Prims and Manix by voting Subieko, and then left. But I don't think we should lynch him today either way. I think that Iris is scummy as well, but I agree with Helios and Subi that nano makes a better target. Those people you listed as most likely town, Manix, are most likely town whether Iris flips town or scum. On the other hand, if nano flips town, Helios and Subi look pretty bad for being the main ones pushing for his lynch.

[Grace]

that post was aimed at Helios, btw

and Subieko, wrt to Iris' role, I'm referring to other games, and general logic in making setups. I'm doing one right now, and fair to say I have an idea about what is good (and broken) and what isn't.