Toonami Mafia: Game Over

[BBM]

So are you saying that we only have two people vote at the end?

Might be a good idea, yeah. If that's not possible, we can just vote normally and Kirsche can get Sensor results on other people too. Choosing 2/4 people on the wagon is the best idea because it's the best split of the group.

[Naglfar]

@BBM: less fucked in my case, but definitely in kirsche's if we're trusting him. I'm just saying we wouldn't be able to come back from that. as for prims, I find him a pain to read. fair enough on the rest, but I question why the mafia would use a one-shot silence on N0.

I guess I'm not convincing you to trust me at this rate, and obviously your plan looks safer, but I'd like you to understand the risk/reward that's actually involved here. first, if kirsche is scum, we're in huge trouble if we listen to him at all. in that case, my alignment hardly matters. in the event that I'm scum and kirsche is town, going with my plan screws us; but in any other situation it's either equal or superior. as for the results of trusting me, you can aim to lynch scum if you really want to, but hitting town would be the best case scenario. yes, mislynching is bad, but isn't one town for one scum considered a good trade? how about one town for three scum and getting to use kirsche's question for something else? how about... how many scum players had no votes on them at the end of D2? you could clear half the playerlist that way. just set the votes up correctly, none on the suspects that aren't being lynched. one on me, I guess. if it returns two, I have some explaining to do. if it returns three, everyone without votes on them plus me is town. four is iffy but still clears me, with five we could pretty decisively clear everyone with votes on them. in addition, if we lynch scum, and there turns out to be no scum on the two-man wagon, of course that incriminates me.

so understanding that this plan has a significant chance of blowing up in my face should I be scum, I'm going to continue to strongly recommend it.

@scorri, why do you want me to vote so badly? right now I'm trying to convince a town full of people who think I'm scum to do what I say, with an untouched mafia on top of that who would want me to shut up more than anyone. kinda got my hands full, ya dig?

[Naglfar]

ugh, fuck logic. a result of three or four on that question doesn't clear anyone.

[BBM]

See, this is what I dislike. You keep speculating about the possibilities of Kirsche being scum but then still say that it's best to trust him. It's like you're pushing forward following him while still spreading mistrust.

[Naglfar]

I'm just acknowledging that it's possible. I guess I'm a little self-conscious about people getting on my case for looking too confident about him, but in that post I was trying to objectively lay out the risks involved regardless for the sake of making a point. it's not so much that I believe him, which I do, than it is my opinion that not taking this chance isn't going to get us out of this gigantic hole of four dead townies on day two.

anything else to say? you and I need to sort out our disagreement.

[j00]

in either case we should lynch who we think is scum, that way we'll be less screwed over if you or kirche is scum

ugh, i'm not claiming alone, but i also targeted bard and got that my action was successful, but it didn't work.

i believe he is safeguard without that being indicative of alignment but he's at least being helpful. his suggestion mainly hinges on kirche's alignment, he's also on the nnr wagon and either by voting or kirche's action not being successful will screw him over if he's scum.

and where did sb and xinnidy go? they should provide some input.

[Naglfar]

yeah for real where is literally everyone

more attempts to make people feel better about me, how about my N0 idling? nobody's coming forward to dispute that, so I hope everyone at least believes I did. I think as scum I could pretty easily use the role to cover my buddies from investigative roles early on and make up some shit about being compulsive or whatever when it came time to claim. also, scum!me playing conservatively on N0 then going yolostrats on bard immediately afterwards, followed by a pretty much straight-up claim, makes no sense to me. facts, people. better than scumtells.

[j00]

bard did kind of go yolo tho

i thought he maybe was one-shot or something to justify outing manix-who-wasn't-there and essentially planning to die N1, and even though he was even-night with fullcop it would pay more off just trying to stay alive to N2.

i would rather more lynch sb and prims than you at this point because sb's kinda disappeared for no good reason and prims isn't scumhunting very good either, but he did say he's a bit out of it IRL.

oh well some pressure first then

##Unvote

##Vote: SB

[j00]

and i don't know about shinori

he's obviously dayvig and going off role alone that's unusual for mafia but we had manix who protects us from nightkills and rein who was a bomb so i don't want to dismiss him on role alone

his scumhunting has also been meh this phase and nonexistential previous phase but i don't disagree with shooting rein, not sure about how to handle inactives either and rein always seems to be coasting anyway

right now i wouldn't lynch him over sb or prims

the people on the nnr wagon should come and talk more since we're lynching between us unless someone is blatantly opposed to trusting kirche and absolutely wants to lynch someone else in which people should still come back and discuss!

[Zkirsche]

I was thinking about it and also came to the same conclusion as BBM: that we should have a minor wagon where two of the 5 vote and noone else. I will sensor that wagon and that'll give us plenty of information.

The problem lies with finding the best wagon to lynch today. I don't want to lynch Nags as while he's alive I'm guaranteed a N2 result ,assumign he's town. Even if he's scum there's still 2 out of Sb/j00/prims/Shinori so we have a good chance of being able to hit scum today. I don't like Shinori at all and am kinda worried about SB considering he looks like he's lurking.

[Naglfar]

okay I thought of a better mislynch question for my plan and gee all I had to do was flip it around

ask how many scum players had votes on them at the end of D2. keeping votes off the suspects we aren't lynching, we could have like two or three people cleared, or at least create a really short list of suspects for another scum slot. I think these votes should be on people's scumreads, since I think in such a situation, clears wouldn't be as helpful as suspects. list of candidates: BBM, scorri, cam, snike, xinnidy and myself if you absolutely must. this whole plan involves trusting kirsche so including him would be dumb. as if anyone would incriminate themselves with their own result anyway.

time to post a more substantial version of my plan because we need to get this gay pride float to the parade.

lynchee: shinori - sorry dude, according to your own claim you're basically a plain old hated townie right now. if you're telling the truth, and you survive to a final-three gamestate, the town loses, so I'd rather we kill you when a mislynch hurts the least. and if you're lying dirty terrible mafia scum, then good for us I guess.

lone suspect: prims, voting ??? - as I said earlier, I'm awful at reading you, and you're not even playing normally this game. I dunno what the hell is even your deal this game. this setup guarantees us learning your alignment. sounds like you might be having problems irl so if that's the case, here's to your shit getting sorted man.

paired suspects: j00 and SB, voting ??? - that leaves you guys. I've felt pretty good about j00 all game and kinda whatever on SB, but this is mostly through power of elimination anyway, so not much to say here.

lynchers: me and my D1 wagon, with preferably no more than one person voting someone else - I'd prefer not having any votes stray from here, because I like the 2-4 split should our lynch flip town, but there's no particular reason for my preference and I can live with 3-3.

upon a town flip: kirsche uses his role to ask how many scum players had any votes on them at the end of D2. what happens next is logic.

upon a scum flip: kirsche uses his role to ask how many scum voted for the two-player wagon guy. do logic.

kirsche, do you think I'm town or not? also everyone, who should the miniwagons be on? because I dunno lol. and BBM especially, if you want it your way I really want you to do something like this too. I would obviously rather the decision making be done before it's too late to coordinate the votes.

[Naglfar]

oh yeah can we get sum voatls and now I'm out for the night

[charlie_]

I went to bed dude ._.

For the record my action was successful, but didn't work either. I completely understand why though so

Would not be opposed to claiming I guess.

---

OK I found this post that I forgot to click send on like 3 hours later (most recent post is from j00 in this window that starts with "in either case"

I find Shinori to be the most suspicious out of the other people on the wagon, especially after that dayvig shot that seriously looked like distancing himself from it with the whole "there's over a 50% chance for him to flip scum" part. I also don't remember him saying anything on Rein, but I could be wrong?

more after lunch

[charlie_]

I didn't really have much to say on Nags that wasn't already said BBM. I thought he was scummy, but not to the extent that NNR was.

why shinori is the scum

D1

#183: rvs post

#300: will get down a post later post

#309: haven't really been paying attention lol

#314: will get up post before i go to sleep, defending self for if the post is bad

#356: nnr and nags are bussing each other, apparently

#357: says he dislikes both nnr and nags, doesn't give a reason why, says their interactions look "off" with no justification

#365: sorry i'm inactive, but i couldn't find anything useful in 15 pages, am working on post

#386: sorry i suck guys

#388: both of the main wagonees are scummy, lol

#392: waffles on nnr due to his claim, but says he dislikes him anyway on nags interactions

tl;dr, promises content and never delivers, is very vague with his suspects (and only suspects the two main wagons)

D2

#420 makes case about rein. already covered the "can we not give this a free pass". hilariously a lot of the points he has against rein could be said about him, about not having many scumreads, jumping on the nnr wagon and making vague statements about how nnr is suspicious.

#421 sb suspicion that i already said why it was worthless

#435 makes a blatant lie about how scumteams have been inactive recently to fit with his case, seems fixated on me faking activity even though i have no reason to do so

#441 distances self from own dayvig shot via the use of numbers, even though it's supposedly his primary scumread

#442 rectifies a previous point and makes even less sense in the process. how do scum want to fake activity so that they look like scum from the past few games?

#445 welp i misvigged, claim

#448 role pm claim

#451 excuse for not shooting manix

Something else about Shinori that bugs me (although this isn't part of my read on him) is where Nags says that we should lynch him because he's essentially a hated vanilla that's detrimental in XYLO, thats not why we lynch people, we lynch them because they're scummy. This seems kind of like him distancing himself from the Shinori lynch, especially since he hasn't said anything about Shinori reads-wise beforehand. He still has an excuse to hop on it though, but if Shinori flips town (unlikely, imo) he can back off and say he was only suspicious on him on the grounds of his role.

Will look into other nnr wagon members in a little while.

[BBM]

Meh, it seems like Naglfar really is the Safeguard, in which case I doubt he's really mafia because Mafia Safeguards that can target their NK are basically like an unlimited screw you to Docs and Watchers.

##Unvote, ##Vote: Shinori

I explained this earlier. Didn't like his shot or his reasons for not shooting Manix earlier. And I think there are too many potential kills already.

SB, I understand not saying much about Nag because you didn't have much to say, but not even a cursory "Naglfar is bad but NNR is worse" seems off to me.

Also if Kirsche is legit, mafia would probably be bussing each other like mad atm so I don't really take the arguments between SB and Shinori as worth much.

[Zkirsche]

Nags I don't think your way is better than just asking how many people on the two man wagon is scum. Also can you please vote I'm not sure who you think is scummiest right now. SB do you plan on changing your vote to Shinori? As for who I want on the two man wagon, it'll be Nags and SB assuming we're not lynching SB.

Starting to ponder if Dayvig is really a mafia role though.

[charlie_]

Mafia Dayvigs have existed before.

[Zkirsche]

Oh wait there might be an ITP. That makes me happier.

Naglfar and SB vote me please. I'll sensor you tomorrow. If Shinori is just dumb town and nags isn't then j00 would be my next biggest scum read.

[charlie_]

Oh, I forgot my vote wasn't already on Shinori.

##Unvote

##Vote: Shinori

[charlie_]

ninjas everywhere

##Unvote

##Vote: kirsche

[j00]

let's see if i've got this right: naglfar and sb vote kirche, the rest of us lynch shinori? this is the way it's heading.

in other words, kirche, you're basing your questions about the votes on you, meaning the rest of us don't have to conform to some strict vote pattern?

but yeah, a majority seems to want to lynch shinori today and if we're checking sb i'm okay with that. shinori hasn't been playing that good and the towniest part of him is his role, and he could still be scum.

though i'd really rather have prims than naglfar tested, others should weigh in on their suspicions.

##Unvote

do people need me to vote or how are we going on about this lynch? shinori has currently got three votes i think.

[Prims]

kirsche is probably town at this point, can't really justify him coming up with this gambit as scum (even if it could be twisted to benefit the mafia team, it requires somebody to go HEY WANT TO FAKECLAIM QUESTION ASKER TO WASTE MULTIPLE MISLYNCHES on a whim, and nobody ever actually thinks of this).

Out of the potential scum I'm inclined to say it's Shinori - SB - Nags. Agree with BBM on Naglfar and don't like how he's trying to solve this via roles instead of just lynching people for being scum. Looks like a desperate plan to keep the lynch off him imo. Also, targeting Bard N1 makes more sense for a mafia safeguard than a town safeguard who didn't think consider the cop might be the NK target. SB is just PoE because I think j00 is town, his play is fine but kind of unmemorable.

I'm okay with being tested for whatever.

[Prims]

That said, it should be noted that I could easily see j00 as SK.

[Prims]

I don't have any analysis to contribute regarding the bucket list because it's 99% of what we've been talking about. Instead, have some thoughts on other players now that I'm able to read:

- In hindsight of the Manix flip, I don't like Snike white-knighting Manix here, since had Manix claimed properly (which we had no reason not to assume) he would've been obvscum. Assuming Manix being mafia isn't really something you can blame people for and it comes off like Snike is doing it because he knew Manix was town.

- Rest of Snike's content is kinda unimpressive, he posts a lot of words but very few of them are devoted to scumhunting. Reads very fluffy, and him just continuing his D1 case at the start of today is just lazy. Would lynch here once the bucket list is taken care of.

- Xinnidy completely disappearing is annoying. Her content is OK enough that I don't have a strong read on her one way or the other but her play does resemble her Touhou NOCfia scumplay (where her content was OK enough that nobody had a strong read on her one way or the other), so I could see her being maf. Would really like her to comment on recent events so I can develop a better read on her. @Mods: have you prodded her yet?

I don't think Cam is scum. I don't think BBM is scum, especially after the action claim. scorri isn't great but I was townreading her D1 and I think she's putting in effort, just not actually getting much out of it. Wouldn't lynch her over Snike / Xinnidy.

[Prims]

Since that post isn't very clear, I could easily see Xinnidy being scum on PoE for generally being inactive / unmemorable, but don't have any real conviction. She's kind of like a worse SB right now.