Almost OC Mafia - Game Over

[Shinori]

Marf is prolly town actually yeh.

Fuq dat.

Like prolly like 90% town

[Refa]

I quoted all three of the posts you had made D2 before I had pointed it out. How is this cherrypicking? Between your last post and when I pointed it out, two days had elapsed. I SAID you hadn't given reads all day (I admit I was wrong on the Camread point, but one (1) read in two (2) days is not exactly great either).

Yeah, I'm dumb and didn't realize the timing of your comment (for some reason I thought it was at the end of D2). My bad on that one.

(3) Which ones are those? This is the post where I gave ~all of my then-current reads~ [spoiler=my ((relatively) large) readspost]

Which of these are (or were) associative?
My later posts still don't have them being associative.

My reads on Cam and you had associative components, but that's really it.

Well, I was referring to your earlier post, but I suppose you're right about your most up to date reads not being associative. Reading is hard.

Oh, and, uh. . . what's a census talker?

BBM told me it was just a weird name for an informed townie.

scenario (1) - both mafia and SK!Shinori targeted BBM

scenario (2) - mafia targeted BBM and JoaT!Shinori targeted Refa with something else (probably either roleblock or rolecop based on yesterday's softclaim)

It's just a gut feeling, but I don't think there's an SK in this setup. . .

If there was an SK, this setup would be hilariously scumsided. I already asked SB if he'd announce LYLO in a theoretical 4/2/1 scenario and he said no (because CROSSFIRE I guess), so I feel like there are three scum and if that's the case then it would be LYLO yesterday unless I'm missing something here.

Shinori could be a scum vig, but I think it's less likely overall. To clarify, it's not the vig shot that makes me feel better about him but how he used it. I feel like we should be lynching elsewhere for today. If Euklyd's claim is to be believed, there's some scum role that can't be watched. If that's the case, then it's highly likely that said role (let's be real, Ninja) is among the vanilla claims. The only issue here is if his claim is to be believed...AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Refa]

So I reread Shinori and Euklyd and got mad and kind of sad (and a little glad that I didn't have to make a wallpost, not gonna lie) because it really didn't give me any new information from my prior read yesterday. Well, that's not entirely true. I don't see why Shinori would shoot Poly (that is who he claimed to shoot, right) as scum over a townier player; basically that's what makes me not want to lynch him today. As for Euklyd, his posts today are making me feel worse about my read on him, specifically his responses to me; also while his role itself I could see being scum, the way he claimed it makes me feel better about him (like I don't see why he'd be so sure that Shin wasn't a Watcher as scum)?

Also I think we should lynch between the vanilla claims + Euklyd today. Why is that? Because if Euklyd is to be believed, there is a Scum Ninja who is most likely a vanilla claim unless SB made the Ninja super overpowered (which is less likely). If we don't believe his claim, then we should be lynching him. I know this really just reduces the lynch candidates by 2 (and neither Shinori or Marth are confirmed town by any definition), but anything that makes LYLO easier for me is worth it in my opinion. Already reread Euklyd, will need to reread the other vanilla claims before arriving at any sort of conclusions.

[Bluedoom]

I too think we should lynch between euk and the vanilla claims.

Moreso the vanillas though, bcuz all of them have played badly, although i think refa's play has been the best of the lot. There must be at least 2 vt fakes out there

[Green Poet]

Let's hear this theory/whatever.

Recall from the start of this day:

MY ACTION FAILED WHILE TARGETING REFA.

Euklyd and I asked Shinori if this was worded to imply that he knew Refa to be the cause of his action failing. No response.

I then wonder why mafia decided to kill an informed over a JoaT, to which Shinori replied:

IF SCUM HAVE A GOD DAMN ROLE BLOCK THEN WHY BOTHER KILLING ME

Thus Shinori knows that he was roleblocked, and his "action failing" was not a precise retelling of his night action result. If we believe Shinori, we conclude that mafia decided to NK BBM and hook Shinori.

We also know that a scum hooker exists. No one has claimed hooker except Shinori, who obviously didn't hook himself.

i'm a safeguard but i need to choose my target during the day. When i first saw my role i was like 'wtf' but when i saw bbm's informed claim i figured maybe its so that it protects from that scum role he was talking about. D1 i decided to target shinori randomly and d2 i targeted refa because no pr had claimed yet and decided to gamble again. I wasn't around for phase end otherwise i'd have targeted shinori but this is why shinori's action failed on refa.

Marth says that his safeguard on Refa is what caused Shinori's action to fail. If both Shinori and Marth are town, we can only assume that the bolded is a mistaken statement, because Shinori was both hooked and had his target safeguarded. Conversely, if Marth and Shinori are scumbuddies, then this is an oversight made while trying to cover for one another's faked night actions.

That's the end of the objectively-thought theory of what I came up with.

imo, Marth and Shinori are probably scumbuddies. But I don't have any concrete evidence.

Shinori's #349-#351 aren't logical - how does Marth's daytime ability make him 90% town rather than scum? It's a statement that supports a townread based on nothing.

There's the exchange in Marth's #346 and Shinori's #347. Recall Shinori's initial softclaim where he said that he was a JoaT with 1-shot vig, and ? shots of other roles. The language is pretty ambiguous because he says "my roles are like rolecop, commute and hook," so we didn't actually know what he was claiming. That Marth is the one who confirms that this is indeed Shinori's fullclaim first just doesn't feel normal, or organic. It's as though he's just confirming the fakeclaim in place of Shinori's absence?

The interactions ping me as scummy. I could be wrong. I've been playing poorly for quite a bit of this game. But it's LYLO and that's what I think, so make of it what you will, I guess.

If someone has more information and can think of a likelier scumteam based on solid interactions, they should present it. I'm worn out on this game.

But moving on. . . let's reconsider what possible scum roles we have:

According to Euklyd's Watcher claim, BBM was ninja killed. So there's a scum ninja.

According to BBM's informed, there's a QT infiltrator.

According to Shinori's hooked claim, there's a hooker.

I don't think a town JoaT is balanced against this scumteam, but that's just me.

Town started with allegedly an unlimited watcher, unlimited tracker, JoaT, informed, doc, five VTs, backup, and safeguard.

From this, I can say: no, lynching Euk would be a poor decision. We don't have enough claimed investigative roles to safely conclude that Euk is fakeclaiming. Lynching Cam would also be a bad idea; he's as close as this game has to a cleared townie because of Shin's tracker report.

Obviously, I don't think I'm scum. FFM is a wild card, as no one has results on him and he's been about as alive as Junko these last few days. The only interaction that would tie FFM with my scumreads would be this, but considering that is all sorts of WIFOMy. I don't know what to think of Refa.

The last thing I can think for us to do to possibly salvage a scum lynch today would be to start OC massclaiming. It could lead to something. I don't know.

[Bluedoom]

Gp you say that shinori and i covered for each others fakes? Tell me, what reason does scumnori have to fake joat when he has a proven vigshot? Do you actually think he can fake commute too?

Even if we assume vigscumnori his poly shot is the worst choice he could ever make when he could like, kill bbm and be like 'i found him scummy'

finally we don't know if scum has a hooker or not. Only nori has claimed a failed action so far

[Shinori]

TIME OUT WHEN DID I EVER SAY I KNEW I GOT ROLEBLOCKED GP

[Shinori]

I literally only said I had a failed action AND I DID FUCKING COMMENT ON THE FACT THAT I SAID I DONT THINK REFA WAS THE CAUSE OF IT SO YOU ARE JUST SPOUTING OFF BULLSHIT AND PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH AND MORE FUCKING MUDSLINGING AND MORE DEVILS ADVOCATE.

GOD DAMN.

I am sooooo close to voting you.

_________<----------------The line.

;D

^THAT'S YOU CROSSING IT.

[Shinori]

tHE REASON MY ACTION FAILED WAS ALREADY FOUND OUT ANYWAY I THOUGHT LIKE THE FUCK.

[Shinori]

oh right you think we are buddies or some horse shit.

At the moment I don't know if you are being intentionally dense, bad, or are just like desperate scum.

[Bluedoom]

Ok know what?

##vote:green poet

of the vt claims, cam is close to clear and refa seems the most town of the lot.

Between ffm and gp, i'm inclined to think gp is grasping scum. There's a possibility that ffm is ninja who thought that he should claim immediately but i feel more confident about scum gp.

This is the best lynch imo, we aren't going to get any new content given the inactivity and opinion echoing.

If you're town, gg gp.

[Shinori]

WELL LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

[Green Poet]

Gp you say that shinori and i covered for each others fakes? Tell me, what reason does scumnori have to fake joat when he has a proven vigshot? Do you actually think he can fake commute too?

Scum!Shinori doesn't need to fake commute. On N2, scum knew that one kill would be all it took to get to LYLO, and so proving N3 actions wouldn't be necessary. Claiming roleblocked means you don't need to have to give any results, either.

TIME OUT WHEN DID I EVER SAY I KNEW I GOT ROLEBLOCKED GP

"IF SCUM HAVE A GOD DAMN ROLE BLOCK THEN WHY BOTHER KILLING ME"

So you don't actually know if you got hooked? At the start of the day you told us your action failed, and that ^ leads me to believe you were further informed that you were specifically blocked.

If you'd established at the beginning of the phase that you don't know if you were roleblocked, and didn't talk as though you were roleblocked. . . then I obviously wouldn't have assumed that you were roleblocked.

Like. . . you realize my case actually depends on whether or not you were blocked, right? Stop assuming I'm trying to twist your words when said words haven't been clear at all. If you're town, work with me.

[Shinori]

Generally when someone fucking has a failed action they first jump to an assumed roleblocker not a random day time safeguard that wasn't around at the end of the day phase.

[Bluedoom]

The problem with your case is if he wants to claim anything its vig since its more pro town looking and was even proven.

Also your case on shinori started last d phase bcuz of disbelief of his claim which is dumb.

[Shinori]

Like I'm annoyed at euk but at the moment I'm starting to think he's just really fucking dense town.

[Shinori]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Marth refa and ffm scum team go.

Ok know what?

##vote:green poet

of the vt claims, cam is close to clear and refa seems the most town of the lot.

Between ffm and gp, i'm inclined to think gp is grasping scum. There's a possibility that ffm is ninja who thought that he should claim immediately but i feel more confident about scum gp.

This is the best lynch imo, we aren't going to get any new content given the inactivity and opinion echoing.

If you're town, gg gp.

All of the bolded strikes me as really off the refa thing is kinda gut but also has to deal with refa's like attitude over the past day phase or two.

Also the safeguard thing is just so unprovable for day 1 it sucks.

Supposedly he targeted me, why? And then day 2 randomly swapped to Refa. It's like a rando targeting SG which confuses me. But idk how a supposed scum sg would work with a supposed ninja and an eavesdropped or whatever.

However it serves as a pseudo roleblock.

ACTUALLY SAFEGUARD IS A BETTER ROLEBLOCK THAN ROLEBLOCK IN A GAME WITH SO MANY PASSIVE ROLES.

Yeah I'm thinking Marth x Refa x FFM at the moment.

Also that vote pile up last day phase matches what i mentioned before as well.

[Green Poet]

Marth, if there's a three-man scumteam and you're actually town, you know they're going to go for the turbo. Try to anticipate them, because I'm done trying to convince people I'm not scum and that's literally the only way you can save the game from your vote.

If any of you have OC leads that could mean anything, now's the time to out it.

[Green Poet]

Shinori, whom out of those three do you think is the likeliest to be scum?

[Shinori]

I'm gonna wait a little bit.

Because if scum doesn't turbo then that means one of two things.

Either Marth is scum or you are GP. That is assuming no one turbos.

[Green Poet]

Shinori's uncontested vigshot is still a thing. Marth could be the hooker but fakeclaiming visits to Shinori and Refa is dangerous considering he didn't know what the watcher's claims were yet. Since there's no proven hooker, my Shinori/Marth scumteam theory no longer holds.

I'm gonna wait a little bit.

Because if scum doesn't turbo then that means one of two things.

Either Marth is scum or you are GP. That is assuming no one turbos.

Alright, sounds good. Not much we can do if scum does pull off a turbo since it's Marth's vote on me and not yours, but at least it's something.

Heading off now. In case Marth is town and there's a three-person scumteam. . . well, meh. I'm sorry. I tried.

[euklyd]

what the fuck is this game STOP VOTING

Marth unvote right the fuck now I don't care if GP is scummy or even if I am scumreading her you do not vote in LYLO unless everyone is sure

if you're gonna express votes do it with like, pseudovotes, if they're a thing.

(@SB - are pseudovotes a thing?)

Also, rolespec is a shitty way to scumhunt. We have TWO DAYS to analyze, and we have time between now and the end of the phase.

more coming soon just wanted to get this out there

[charlie_]

I have no idea what you mean by that.

[euklyd]

@SB:

Then they're probably not a thing here. I've seen them on other sites but meh.

They'd just show intent of where someone is planning to vote without actually being a vote towards a lynch.

@game:

These cases are all ass what the fuck. Marth's is probably the least shit but still this is so dumb.

Also this is not really a 1v1 right now (and wasn't last night either) and won't be for a while because we only have evidence of myself, Shinori, Marth, Refa, and Green Poet being online, and not FFM and Cam. I'm pretty sure they're asleep at this time of night.

Also also my internet is sporadically dying thanks Obama.

more to follow

[Bluedoom]

Shinori if i was scum sg i'd sg the person i'd nk so that i'd effectively be a strongman

not sg someone and hope someone targets them