Almost OC Mafia - Game Over

[euklyd]

omfg. we could have lynched scum and instead we got a doc lynch what the actual fuck.
this literally just wasted a day I hope you're fucking happy.

##Vote: Green Poet

Now can we lynch GP? Also I'm REALLY not a fan of that fucking counterwagon.

Rereading.

Okay so I can definitively say... fuck this game. I have approximately zero (0) solid townreads (apart from myself, ofc). BBM is the closest I get.

GP >> Refa* > Shin ≥ FFM* ≈ Cam* > Shinori ≈ Marth > BBM >> Me
(what are townreads)

This kinda relies on GP being scum but I really feel like that turbolynch was PROBABLY instigated and/or propelled by scum trying to save their buddy.
* refers to reads that heavily rely on interactions with GP.
Refa effectively started the trend as well as not being super protown, and he tried really hard to justify the vote on Cocomon at the last minute. It just kinda feels off to me. Come D2, he also needs reads.
FFM has just been kinda scummy all game, but that seems kinda par for the course for him so idk. His interactions (defense/attack) with GP and me are bad. Like I think he's scummy but I feel like it'll be incredibly hard to tell if he's scummy scum or scummy town. Would vig/10.
Cam's GP townread still feels weird, and the way he sorta backed off on it and then unbacked off and then off again is pinging me. OTOH his /effort and general approach have been making me feel better about him.

BBM was pushing pretty damn hard for the GP lynch before switching at the last minute when a chance presented itself.
On the other hand I've been reading him as town for much of the game, and I doubt he'd be willing to bus a buddy like that that early on, and the last minute realization is giving me townvibes...also I don't think that scum!BBM would be willing to tie himself that closely to dodging the lynch of his buddy in such an obvious way. Leaning town here.
Shinori is null; he's been kinda inactive and feels pretty detached, but that's pretty non-indicative of alignment with him, and there's not a lot of content there to analyze. His Junko stuff is okay, if sorta tunnel-y [/hypocrite].
Shin has been inactive and reactionary/coasty after an early couple of contentposts. Scummy.
Marth has made some good points about Cam, but I really didn't understand the switch to Shin. He also really hasn't said much about the GP v Me thing, which is odd.

I'm really not interested in lynching anyone over GP today (at this time, at least; things may change) because a lot of my scumreads are based on interactions with her, and associative reads without flips are ;/

IF GP flips town (not likely imo, buuut...), then my reads would probably look something along the lines of:
Town:
BBM has literally no reason to wagonhop from town to town as scum, and he's also got solid play. Solidly town.
Refa is iffy town. No reason to wagonhop, but less-than-solid play, and the LAST DITCH ATTEMPT to justify the Cocomon vote just feels off, like he's trying too hard. Still needs reads.

Null:
FFM; GP interactions mean very little, and I have a hard time reading him. Scummy scum or scummy town is the worst thing. Vanilla claim is kinda ehh. Don't think it's really scummy but I could also see it coming from over-eager scum as well, so meh.
Cam; the GP interactions are still weird, but the consistent /effort and approach are countering this, and there's not really nearly as much scum benefit in the way he's been acting wrt GP if she's town.
Marth; same as above.
Shinori, for the same reasons as above.

Scum:
Shin, for reasons stated above.

I didn't talk much about Euklyd yesterday because tbh I thought he was on the right track with GP for most of the day. I can't fault him for his GP case because I agreed with a lot of it at the time but his other stuff feels very cursory and it's literally just the one post, #144. The fact that it's all kind of stuffed in there gives me the feeling he was just forcing himself to speak about other people because he was aware he was tunneling.

Yes, I agree, I am tunneling. I think that GP is scum. Did so yesterday as well. She is my strongest scumread by a lot. I want her lynched.
Come at me.
Also I really don't think that the effortpost makes her town, which seems to be the main thing that makes people think she is...

[FrostyFireMage]

##Vote: Shin

All his scumreads were either townies (Junko/Poly) or the largest wagon at the time (GP). Plus he seems overly eager to get the heat off him due to GP's vote.

I'm tired, I'll read more tomorrow.

[Shin]

BBM, is your read on me from my interactions with Marth? I don't really think you've said anything else about me. I'm still yet to actually hear proper justification for GP's vote, I replied yesterday but I haven't got a response back.

##Vote: Shin

All his scumreads were either townies (Junko/Poly) or the largest wagon at the time (GP). Plus he seems overly eager to get the heat off him due to GP's vote.

I'm tired, I'll read more tomorrow.

This vote is pretty bad. "All his scum reads were town therefore he must be scum" is really weak logic. The claims of defensiveness are also exaggerated, apparently acknowledging there's a fairly iffy vote on me is bad.

Reading back through FFM's ISO, he'd parked himself on a Euk vote right until the end, where he decided to vote Junko because he "may as well". His initial vote was because he "didn't like Euk for simplifying GP's words" but never really went to push it, like he was sitting ready for a wagon to go. It's pretty neat that he's following after GP's vote today too! I'm seeing a lot in the way of interactions between the two as well.

##Vote: FFM

I expect to hear wonderful outcries from FFM on how defensive this is, but I can't ignore a vote this bad.

[BBM]

@Euklyd- It's not the act of the effortpost that makes GP town- it's that she chose to focus on giving reads rather than defending herself in what she thought would be the last post she made before being lynched. Also, why are you depending on GP's flip for reads? Why is there such little effort to look at people for other reasons? Your last post where you break down people's alignments based on whether GP is town or scum is really a lot of fluff because what you say in both cases (GP scum, GP town) is basically the same with a slight reordering of priorities. For example, I myself can admit that I'd look bad if GP flips scum because I basically changed the wagon from her to Junko. But either way I'm your towniest read?

Also this is very minor but the way you started off your post, "omg we could have lynched scum but instead we lynched the doctor" just doesn't feel genuine to me.

@Shin- I didn't really speak much about you because I was tired and tbh I placed you in my scumteam list mainly through PoE. I still don't really have time right now (in the evening hopefully) but looking at your last post you try to paint GP and FFM as buddies. However, you've said very little about GP. Just #154, which is kind of a weak prod about her not having many reads. And there are people who have less reads than GP, who spoke about both me and Euklyd. Euklyd, for example, spoke almost exclusively about GP, yet he's just lumped as part of "everybody else". Curious, because you mention how his vote is bad in #61. What happened to that?

[Shin]

I'm more convinced that FFM is scum than GP, hence the vote. I do agree I did imply there was some association between GP and FFM, although it's far stronger from FFM to GP. GP's reluctance to vote FFM seems to make a little more sense retrospectively, but it's more of an interesting observation than a condemnation. I do agree that Euk's tunneling of GP is something pretty iffy, but I need to read through the ISO. I'm not too sure what scum!Euk would achieve from death-tunneling GP across two days.

[euklyd]

@Euklyd- It's not the act of the effortpost that makes GP town- it's that she chose to focus on giving reads rather than defending herself in what she thought would be the last post she made before being lynched. Also, why are you depending on GP's flip for reads? Why is there such little effort to look at people for other reasons? Your last post where you break down people's alignments based on whether GP is town or scum is really a lot of fluff because what you say in both cases (GP scum, GP town) is basically the same with a slight reordering of priorities. For example, I myself can admit that I'd look bad if GP flips scum because I basically changed the wagon from her to Junko. But either way I'm your towniest read?

I did look into other people for other reasons. My categorization was because I wanted to figure out who I was scumreading due to association with GP and who I was scumreading for other things, because that is useful to know for both me, personally, and for others, so that they know why I'm thinking what I am.

You are my towniest read because I don't think you'd bus your scumbuddy that hard, that early in the game, and I think you're clever enough to not wagonhop as scum in such an obvious manner [/meta]. OTOH if she flips town then there's no scum benefit to be had wagonhopping like that, and your play is still good. These are consistent townreads; therefore, you are my towniest read.

I think that the GP -> Cocomon counterwagon is easily the most important thing that's happened this game. I think that it is going to make or break the rest of the game.

Also I'm PRETTY SURE I've seen scum post a last-ditch readpost before (Eury in Healer is the one I remember; too lazy and not enough time atm to find others). Like it's a townplay but imo it's not nearly enough.

[charlie_]

Votals 2.1

Shin (2): Green Poet, FFM

Green Poet (1): Euklyd

FFM (1): Shin

Not Voting (5): Too many people

With 9 alive, it takes 3 to lynch and 6 to hammer. You have 39 and a half hours left in the day.

Edited May 25, 2014 by SB.

[Shinori]

I am really inactive and tired because of working over the weekend. Sign holding sucks. x.x And I'm sunburned again and I'm tired and blah.

I think I personally would prefer GP > FFM but I'll try to get some reading done and some sort of post. I work tomorrow and monday as well though but come AFTER that I should be back and good to go. WITH MONEY. MUAHAHA.

[CT075]

ugh sorry about inactivity i'm really busy (two major projects due coming up and then finals the week after)

just from skimming the thread and d2 i'm not liking shin overmuch will try to come up with something more conclusive/stronger at some point later when i take a break

[Green Poet]

Wow, I forgot I could still post in this game after dying in Training for some reason. Anyway. . .

@Shinori - when you get the chance, could you explain the reasoning behind your lynch priority?

Like I can sort of understand why you want to lynch me because you expressed suspicion at me not voting FFM in ED1, but that's the last you've talked of me or my content and it's unclear to me if you still think that way?

But the only time you've mentioned FFM prior to this was ED1 when you said FFM's claim suited his meta, so I assumed you had a nullread on him? But now apparently he's the only other person on your two-person lynch priority, and I don't see where this is coming from.

omfg. we could have lynched scum and instead we got a doc lynch what the actual fuck.
this literally just wasted a day I hope you're fucking happy.

##Vote: Green Poet

Now can we lynch GP? Also I'm REALLY not a fan of that fucking counterwagon.

Really?

Not even according to your reads throughout all of D1 did you ever believe Junko was likely to be town, much less doctor. He and I were your only reads D1, both of them being scumreads, so acting as though you would have been against a Junko lynch just looks scummy.

You even said that my interactions with Junko would reveal a lot upon one of our flips. . .? And you're talking as though his flip means nothing.

My categorization was because I wanted to figure out who I was scumreading due to association with GP and who I was scumreading for other things, because that is useful to know for both me, personally, and for others, so that they know why I'm thinking what I am.

If associative reads are as important to your reads as you say they are, I would've thought that the townie you disliked so much for buddying with me would straighten you out by actually flipping town. But your reaction to his flip is just a bitter "we should've lynched actual scum instead," instead of anything to do with Junko's associative reads. Are you going to ignore Refa's reads on me, or on anyone else, if he flips town? FFM's? BBM's?

If you're only going to selectively consider scum flips in your "associative reads," what you have aren't reads at all. What you have is bias, and that's scummy.

Shin has been inactive and reactionary/coasty after an early couple of contentposts. Scummy.
Marth has made some good points about Cam, but I really didn't understand the switch to Shin.

It should be familiar. Your Shin case is Marth's own.

Euklyd, I don't understand how what's elapsed since your last post in D1 and now has managed to do absolutely nothing on your read on me. Your only "reads" are associative and all of them depend on me being scum, yet you ignore the one reliable, dead associative read source in front of you pointing to me being town. Make up your mind.

[Bluedoom]

Ok so my net's back , got the problem fixed.

@BBM: My Junko vote was dumb, I agree, but that was mostly because I thought we needed hammer to lynch, it was one hour before deadline, and I hadn't had net access all day so I didn't know what happened during the time I was gone. And I was about hit the sack- yada yada you know the drill. Basically I had less time and I didn't read the rules properly.

In any case, ##Vote: Shin

I'm bringing over reasons from yesterday, except I now think the vote on FFM makes him worse. Like he hadn't pushed FFM really last phase, and the reasons for this phase don't really feel strong either. "Parked himself on the GP Wagon"? You could've addressed this last phase, and in fact I'd find it hard for you to ignore it since you were on Junko who was part of the GP wagon. You didn't like the initial vote? You could've attacked that last phase as well. You couldn't have said anything about the consolidation vote which is fine considering timezones.

But when I group your FFM vote with your easy initial vote on Poly and your voteshift to Junko which made more sense, I have a feeling you're most likely to flip scum atm.

I think GP's reads list last phase makes her look more townie, so its a null read here. I don't think the VT claim is a point for her(nor against but still) because we know there is at least one VT in this game via rules so mafia can fake it.

I'll need to read the rest again, specifically Euk, FFM, Shinori and BBM so I'm gonna do that.

[Shinori]

I was just stating GP > FFM cause I feel that FFM is partially town at the moment. PArt of that is gut but I'll have more I sit down and can read better.

[Green Poet]

Euklyd.

Associative reads on dead people contribute to current reads like this:

##Vote: Shin

Eury flipping town makes me somewhat less sure about my Euklyd read

I thought you and Eury were buddies; that Eury's flipped town makes me reconsider.

My "buddy" Junko flipped town, and I would expect any genuine, open-minded townie to make a note of that instead of opening their post with "see, this is what we could've avoided if we lynched his 'scumbuddy' instead" and leaving it at that.

I was just stating GP > FFM cause I feel that FFM is partially town at the moment. PArt of that is gut but I'll have more I sit down and can read better.

Fair enough. Awaiting your reads, then.

I'm more convinced that FFM is scum than GP, hence the vote. I do agree I did imply there was some association between GP and FFM, although it's far stronger from FFM to GP.

Could you explain why you think so?

##Vote: Shin

All his scumreads were either townies (Junko/Poly) or the largest wagon at the time (GP). Plus he seems overly eager to get the heat off him due to GP's vote.

I'm tired, I'll read more tomorrow.

Much as I appreciate the support, this reads like sheeping to me and I'd like to see more from you, like your other reads.

[CT075]

I thought you and Eury were buddies; that Eury's flipped town makes me reconsider.

explain

what about Eury/Euklyd makes you sure that they're the same alignment

My "buddy" Junko flipped town, and I would expect any genuine, open-minded townie to make a note of that instead of opening their post with "see, this is what we could've avoided if we lynched his 'scumbuddy' instead" and leaving it at that.

this is a really vaguely threatening statement that i don't like

is euklyd scum?

[Shin]

Could you explain why you think so?

There's been far more stuff from FFM about you than the other way around. Let's have a look;

[spoiler=Quotes of doom]

he worded it in a way that makes her sound more scummy than she is

and GP's been one of the more active players and bringing up good points (although that may all be a scheme to have us trust her so she can mislead us) but Euk seems to be focusing more on how it took her so long to make a vote and making it sound more noteworthy than it is. Feels like she's just brainstorming IMO

I'm now pretty sure GP is town: her latest post has far too much effort into it considering she's liable to be hammered soon, and her earlier contradictions seem like inexperienced errors (I dunno just how much of a greenhorn she is but based on the accounts of others she isn't exactly a veteran).

All his scumreads were either townies (Junko/Poly) or the largest wagon at the time (GP). Plus he seems overly eager to get the heatoff him due to GP's vote.

That seems to be a lot of covering for GP, and sheeping votes without any original input.

Marth, I made mention of the triple vote on Euk yesterday and how reactionary I felt it was despite the questionable reason Euk voted. It's also totally possible to work on a different case than the previous day, my post shows that I've read through FFM's stuff and said what I think of it. It's also totally possible to pick new things up on a re-read. What may have seemed just sheepy early on can be seen differently when new stuff turns up.

I'd like you to elaborate on the "group your vote with the others", what exactly does that mean?

[euklyd]

FIRST OFF
I'm annoyed at the Cocomon lynch more because it was a turbolynch that happened before he had a chance to say anything (especially: claim) than because I thought he was town.
FOR THE RECORD: I thought he was scummy; I probably would have been willing to consolidate on him if the GP wagon hadn't been viable. It's the way the wagon happened that annoys me.
Also that whole bit about WE WERE ABOUT TO LYNCH MY TOP SCUMREAD AND THEN DIDN'T is kinda annoying.


Anyways. I'm gonna begin by saying I do, in fact, know what ~associative reads~ are, thank you very much.
The way associative reads work is that scum knows who is scum and who is town. Town is allowed to be wrong. Scum are the ones that get to say "oh hey that's my buddy being cased, I better stay away, I don't want them lynched" or who can townread someone for Completely Bullshit Reasons™ and still wind up being right (to be fair town can do this as well), etc.
Town can be right or wrong, because they don't know who is who. When they fight hard to save someone from a lynch, it means they thought someone was town. If they do something, there is not necessarily town benefit to doing so.
When SCUM fights hard to save someone from a lynch, it means there is scum benefit to doing so.
(there is more to associative reads than this but I think you probably get the point)
When someone flips, you get to look at whether there was scum benefit to the interactions various other players had with them. If they were scum, you look at the contexts in which their actions would have scum benefit. From there you can learn things about their probable alignment.

See look, I can be patronizing as well.
Now that that's done with, let's look at your post...

Not even according to your reads throughout all of D1 did you ever believe Junko was likely to be town, much less doctor. He and I were your only reads D1, both of them being scumreads, so acting as though you would have been against a Junko lynch just looks scummy.

addressed this.

You even said that my interactions with Junko would reveal a lot upon one of our flips. . .? And you're talking as though his flip means nothing.
If associative reads are as important to your reads as you say they are, I would've thought that the townie you disliked so much for buddying with me would straighten you out by actually flipping town. But your reaction to his flip is just a bitter "we should've lynched actual scum instead," instead of anything to do with Junko's associative reads. Are you going to ignore Refa's reads on me, or on anyone else, if he flips town? FFM's? BBM's?
If you're only going to selectively consider scum flips in your "associative reads," what you have aren't reads at all. What you have is bias, and that's scummy.

If Refa and FFM both flip town then I'm more likely to be wrong about you, because I really feel like scum played a part in the counterwagon. Even then you don't suddenly become town because townies thought you were town. If you're suggesting that we lynch the people I'm scumreading by association with you, my top scumread, so that I can get a better read on you, then I don't know what to say. If you're not, then why are you saying what you were?

Town. Can. Be. Wrong.
The fact that Three People were voting me last phase does not make me think that Three Scum must have been on my wagon.

You even said that my interactions with Junko would reveal a lot upon one of our flips. . .?

I...don't think I did, actually. If I said something it would have been that your flip would be revealing.

It should be familiar. Your Shin case is Marth's own.

Marth has made some good points about Cam, but I really didn't understand the switch to Shin. He also really hasn't said much about the GP v Me thing, which is odd.

I understand and agree with the case. I don't understand why he switched.

My "buddy" Junko flipped town, and I would expect any genuine, open-minded townie to make a note of that instead of opening their post with "see, this is what we could've avoided if we lynched his 'scumbuddy' instead" and leaving it at that.

My case on you from yesterday still stands. The fact that Cocomon flipped town does not change that, because town can be wrong.

[Shinori]

Dude junko wasnt even a turbo and the fact that he was under pressure and a viable lynch for the past like day and a half to two days of the phase it's on him that he didn't claim.

[Shinori]

On the way home. I'll be available for a bit tonight.

[FrostyFireMage]

Speaking of yesterday's lynch, I have a feeling either BBM or Cam might be scum. BBM for igniting the sudden Junko lynch or Cam for adding fuel to the fire.

Of course, this would imply GP is scum, an idea I don't particularly support.

[CT075]

Of course, this would imply GP is scum, an idea I don't particularly support.

why

on both of those points

[CT075]

(on a semi-unrelated note, i have had a fire lit under my ass and will continue to have one for the next 42 hours about a project that i got way too complacent about; do not expect a lot out of me until that period is over)

##Extension

[BBM]

I think I'm going to go with ##Vote: Euklyd

His whole thing with first yelling at us for not lynching GP and then admitting he did in fact find her scummy doesn't sit well with me. Okay, it was a turbolynch but if it was on someone you thought was still scummy, then why the yelling at the beginning? The whole bit about pushing Marth because of a voteswitch to Shin seems like focusing on something unnecessary. You agree with his case, so what's the problem? It feels like poking at something that wasn't explained 100% just for the sake of it rather than because Euklyd actually finds it scummy, because Euklyd hasn't explained what's actually scummy about switching from Cam to Shin, just that he "doesn't understand it".

[Shinori]

Actualyl an extention would be great. Cause I have my last day of work tomorrow and I'm going to bed early tonight again like I have the past few nights. If we could get an extension then I can actually do stuff after work tomorrow.

[CT075]

(i'm still busy)

an extension would literally save my life because then i can actually play the game after i finish my CS project

[euklyd]

@BBM - When I went to bed, we looked to be about to lynch my top scumread.
I woke up and found we lynched a Doc instead, without giving the Doc a chance to claim.
Regardless of my thoughts about Cocomon, we turboed not-my-top-scumread over my-top-scumread-by-a-lot when we had been about to lynch her. Do you not see how this might possibly be incredibly frustrating to me?

I don't understand why Marth switched. He just said "I think I'll go with this," he didn't say "I'm feeling better about Cam now because [...]" he just switched. I didn't say "OMG MARTH MUST BE SCUM" I said I didn't understand it. Me not understanding it is being blown completely out of proportion.
Marth has had overall solid content, even if I don't understand why he switched. Would also like to hear his thoughts wrt me vs. Green Poet. Weak townread.

FFM looks pretty scummy but he always looks like that. I really can't tell here.

The fact that Shin is picking FFM (literally the most lynchable player as either town or scum) to case, and saying nothing about anyone else, bothers me. He sees an easy target and he goes for it. He hasn't talked about anyone else at all today besides some FFM-GP interactions. Scummy.

Cam apparently is ~super busy~ so his lack of content today is sorta excusable. I'd really like to see reads, though, since it looks like he has opinions on who is scum and who is town. His wishy-washiness on townreading GP yesterday is bad, but I've been getting townreads from his general approach.

Shinori is like Cam wrt business but I'm getting fewer townvibes.

BBM is town for reasons I've already articulated, even if he's wrong about both me and GP. Question though

wow the amount of people jumping on this Junko wagon does not give me a good feeling about it

Doesn't this work both ways? You think scum came out of the woodwork to jump on Cocomon's wagon; does this not also imply that if GP was town, they would also be on her wagon?

I want to know why Refa isn't voting. Or posting. He's definitely been online and posting elsewhere on SF, and I've seen him reading the thread several times, yet he hasn't posted in more than 2 days (if my math is right). This makes me feel much worse about him.
The turbo thing is definitely a point against him, and I don't like his last-minute attempt to justify his Cocomon vote. Refa looks like scum.

GP is still scum. Her reactionaryness yesterday and the grasping to justify the case on me are completely ridiculous, and the hypocrisy is really scummy. The way the counterwagon happened makes me think it was a last-ditch effort by her scumbuddies to save her from getting lynched.
Happy with my vote here.

GP > Refa* ≈ Shin

Now that BBM has voted me, GP will hop on, and FFM will follow her immediately because he's been blindly sheeping her the entire game, and then Refa will switch to consolidate. And then I'll get lynched. :salt:

Also ##extension would be cool, since it looks like Certain People just can't into content today.