Reclass Mafia! Postgames are too much effort

[Randa]

I just feel like tossing my two cents in here about the Kinumi thing. It reads more as null to me.

It could easily have been GP putting pressure on Kinumi to distance herself, but Kinumi never posted to defend herself and as such it backfired.

But it also would've been easy for GP to switch her vote to somebody else if she truly felt that she would put herself at a disadvantage but getting Kinumi lynched. It wouldn't have even been taken as a scum move it would've just been moving on while waiting for Kinumi to get on/sub.

[charlie_]

kirsche was on Kinumi pretty heavily too iirc. The interaction doesn't mean much here.

I'm not done with rereading but I'm gonna post my notes anyway.

THINGS THAT ARE INTERESTING:

-Ace's early AtE came after being pressured by two flipped townies and myself, who is also confirmed town.

-GP's reasoning for not clearing Lucas makes more sense coming from scum, in hindsight.

-Ace was townreading Darros early but then when wagons happened she was suddenly all for it?

-Ace's "Darros was the fall guy regardless of alignment" comment feels like she was keeping the lynch locked down while simultaneously distancing herself from it.

-Ace avoided a bunch of Cam's questions then he got killed the next night? Interesting.

-Ace flipped between FFM and Kinumi on D2 pretty frequently.

-Randa barely mentioned Kinumi despite her being the main D2 wagon.

-On the other side of the interactions, Kinumi presses Randa slightly but never actually votes for him?

-Nightkills generally make sense for scum!Randa to make, with the last one being explained by the functional inno from the follower.

[Green Poet]

kirsche and GP: who are the other two scum out of Randa/FFM/Ace and why?

FFM is probably scum.

I've explained it before but essentially, a lot of people were pushing FFM D3. Recall how you were pushing him the most, and how Randa continued to insist that he was sheeping you.

So assume with me for the sake of discussion that kirsche is scum. Looking at his play at the end of D3, you can see that he successfully moves everyone's interest and votes from FFM to Beli, like I'd linked earlier.

Then look at D4, where FFM sides with kirsche. I think the interactions point to FFM being very likely scum.

By extension, Randa is most likely not scum. If scum was going to bus FFM, they wouldn't disclaim credit for it by saying they were following SB's lead on it. Furthermore, Randa has maintained a neutral position on the 1v1 so far; if he were scum, I think he would have joined FFM in supporting kirsche.

So that leaves Ace. I'm not as certain if she's scum, but she is likelier than Randa to be.

Consider this post. She says that FFM and I are likely scum, but her reason for thinking I'm scum is that I'm. . . bussing? That relies on circular logic (I have to be scum in order to bus, I can't be bussing for certain because you don't know for certain if I'm scum, etc.) so I'm unsure if this is a genuine attempt at sorting out the 1v1 or lines fed by kirsche in scumchat. The vote on FFM isn't much of a tell because scum would know that a townie would be quick to tell her to unvote.

By PoE, Ace would have to be scum. I'm just not as convinced of it as I am with FFM.

[Green Poet]

kirsche and GP: who are the other two scum out of Randa/FFM/Ace and why?

FFM is probably scum.

I've explained it before but essentially, a lot of people were pushing FFM D3. Recall how you were pushing him the most, and how Randa continued to insist that he was sheeping you.

So assume with me for the sake of discussion that kirsche is scum. Looking at his play at the end of D3, you can see that he successfully moves everyone's interest and votes from FFM to Beli, like I'd linked earlier.

Then look at D4, where FFM sides with kirsche. I think the interactions point to FFM being very likely scum.

By extension, Randa is most likely not scum. If scum was going to bus FFM, they wouldn't disclaim credit for it by saying they were following SB's lead on it. Furthermore, Randa has maintained a neutral position on the 1v1 so far; if he were scum, I think he would have joined FFM in supporting kirsche.

So that leaves Ace. I'm not as certain if she's scum, but she is likelier than Randa to be.

Consider this post. She says that FFM and I are likely scum, but her reason for thinking I'm scum is that I'm. . . bussing? That relies on circular logic (I have to be scum in order to bus, I can't be bussing for certain because you don't know for certain if I'm scum, etc.) so I'm unsure if this is a genuine attempt at sorting out the 1v1 or lines fed by kirsche in scumchat. The vote on FFM isn't much of a tell because scum would know that a townie would be quick to tell her to unvote.

By PoE, Ace would have to be scum. I'm just not as convinced of it as I am with FFM.

[Green Poet]

Did I just double post, or is that just me. . .? Sorry if that's the case.

Anyway. . .

If there are three scum left, and kirsche is guaranteed to be one of them:

FFM is almost certainly one.

Ace or Elie may be the last one by PoE, though I'm personally doubtful about either being scum.

Randa is as close to obvtown as FFM is obvscum. By extension, SB is obvtown.

It comes down to whether or not you guys want to lynch kirsche or myself today. If the game goes on, I'd advise turboing FFM D5. I will inevitably be the N4 kill, then SB or Randa will die N5. It'll probably fall upon whomever's left to make the call then.

[Green Poet]

It wouldn't have even been taken as a scum move it would've just been moving on while waiting for Kinumi to get on/sub.

Huh, I completely forgot about that.

Kinumi did sub out. That would've given scum!me the perfect excuse to halt her wagon and call for the lynch or reconsideration of someone who could claim or offer defense.

Somehow I doubt that scum!me would fail to notice Kinumi's absence both in-thread and in scumchat, and not bring it up in any of my posts so far this day.

[charlie_]

kirsche could have done the same thing, that's not a valid defense here.

[Green Poet]

kirsche could have done the same thing, that's not a valid defense here.

I mean to say that it contradicts kirsche's theory that I intended to distance myself from Kinumi but messed up in getting her lynched, because I had an ideal way of stopping her lynch.

Yes, kirsche could have done the same, but it's irrelevant in his case since he wasn't the one initially pushing Kinumi and thus his interactions with her are not the ones in question here.

[charlie_]

kirsche contributed more to the Kinumi lynch than you did, even if your vote came up earlier. Accidental bussing is possible and her needing a sub made it a better option to lynch her anyway, considering the activity levels.

[Green Poet]

kirsche contributed more to the Kinumi lynch than you did

Well. . . I beg to differ.

Regarding SB's wallpost: his Kinumi case is good and sheepable, her reads are pretty easy and I think that she was holding her vote at the end of last phase to see which one of Darros/Randa she should vote for instead of just placing it on the scummiest one right off the bat.

Kinumi needs to actually commit to a read with a vote, I know she says they're not strong but it's important that you put your money where your mouth is and she isn't doing that.

##Vote: Kinumi

Kinumi > Randa >> SB > Beli

This is what consituted his original Kinumi case. The second line reads like coaching; the first is explicitly sheeping your case. He doesn't point out how she's scummy, just that she was waffling.

Literally his only other mention of Kinumi until her lynch is:

Don't like how you discredited your own read here, I understand the read may be weak but what's the point in not committing yourself to it? This is basically the same problem I have with Kinumi.

Kinumi > Randa > Beli >> SB

So. . . kirsche's reason for voting Kinumi is that she's not committing herself to her reads. Is that even inherently scummy? kirsche doesn't even seem to consider that a newb!town player could be hesitant about committing.

Whereas I detail more than a single qualm that I have with Kinumi's play, which aren't possibly seen in newb!town play, and why they're scummy:

This post by Kinumi feels insubstantial. I see two game-related thoughts expressed in it:

1. Kinumi thinks Randa is probably scum because Darros was lynched by the influence of Randa's scumbuddies. Without a vote analysis that specifically points to people on the Darros wagon as possible scum through interactions, there's nothing that makes Randa more likely than not to be scum.

2. Kinumi agrees with the FFM cases. Nothing original. At best, a reason to sheep an increasingly popular FFM wagon later down the line.

##Vote: Kinumi

I see post padding, a case that's realistically unsupported, and an attempt to set up an easy wagon hop.

I point out how her Randa suspicion is actually based on proof she doesn't have, which questions whether or not she's really uninformed. I point out how her suspicion with FFM is likewise baseless; she's casing people without substance.

I invite town to ISO us for themselves. It's up to you to decide who's contributed more to scum lynches and who's contributed more to mislynches, just try to make an impartial decision.

[Green Poet]

That's probably my last post for a while. Good luck, I've tried what I can.

[Ace Tactician]

Whoa, why so slow?

[Elieson]

I've got literally no read on Ace Tactician, despite having spent 2 hours trapped on a boat with a broken motor, reading him and his ISO/Contextual posts.

Elie > Kirsche > FFM/Ace/Randa > SB > GP

I should look more at Randa and FFM i guess

[Elieson]

Wait I think sb is town

[Randa]

Eli is that in order of towniness.

[Elieson]

Yea

I forgot SB claimed Martyr and since mafia obviously has the hooker, having a hooker and a martyr would just be fucking dumb imbalance.

[Randa]

I thought that was lynch priority for a second. But that would make no sense.

[Elieson]

ya totally, lynch me, that way we can quit stressing out over this game

Note: I know I'm town so the way I see it we have 3 scum in 4 a group of 4 people, but that is only obvious to me.

Randa I reallllllllllllly don't like this.

[Randa]

Why?

[Elieson]

Because there's no point to you reiterating

Well since one of us is town, it's me fmpov, so chew on that guys

and I don't think i've ever seen town do that

[Randa]

I've just been trying to get people to consider who the remaining scum members are out of the remaining players. Since the questions after we decide who is scum between GP and Kirsche the question will be who of the remaining three are the two scum members. Basically what I'm trying to say by reiterating it is don't bother asking my opinion when we get there. I'd rather you and SB are able to focus on just rereading each of us and deciding, without bothering to ask who we think is scum. Also it should be obvious that the actual doc will be dead by then.

I don't know. I don't think its that weird.

[charlie_]

We have 12 hours.

##Vote: Green Poet

I don't see this changing. Biggest suspicion is Randa in case I die tonight, but I still need to read over some more.

[charlie_]

btw kirsche, sit on Eli tonight. We can't both be hooked and if we lynch scum tomorrow it's autowin due to hijacker shenanigans.

[BBM]

VOTALS

Green Poet (2): kirsche, SB

kirsche (1): Green Poet

Not Voting (4): Randa, FFM, Ace, Elieson

7 alive, 4 to lynch, phase ends in 8.5 hours.

[Elieson]

I'll be here for the entire phase. Also, I'm a bit concerned about priorities. Who's claimed to have failed actions? I think I saw two people claim 2 sets of failures.