ODMGUADTMAS - LyLo afterparty

[Refa]

maybe if you actually read my posts you'd know. i thought his quickhammer was scummy as fuck and it read like a preservation measure (and ftr the self hammer is even worse, he literally gave up as town, which is anti-wincon, but i digress), his pushing on me made literally zero sense (PoE? how about actually reading people instead of assuming shit when you haven't explained anything), et al.

rebuttal to points:

1) okay, but if blitz is scum (which i think so, you a very close second because the way you've been acting today is far different than previous days, and your tone is so much more different and i don't like it), that's basically irrelevant. the point is kind of predicated on the assumption that blitz is scum.

3) then maybe you should be less sure of your own conclusions. why me over SB/LG? in fact, while we're here: do you think i'd try and fakevig as sk, knowing that i'd get attention over it? because it's not like non-town can't attempt to do this

4) do you want a lylo that could potentially pan out with a theoretical town!blitz who doesn't post content and the remaining scum can basically freeride to victory? we've had those types of lylo's before and they are literal shit.

okay. don't agree w/the quickhammer being scummy, but whatever not relevant. also, how did this not factor into your read on gilgamesh ("also: i have a role with a death trigger. claiming that as non-town gives town a slight advantage for lynching me, even if i'm lying, which is not great game design (granted, this setup is basically some variation of mountainous.")? like...he did EXACTLY the same thing, but you didn't seem to give a fuck about that.

1) wtf? you can't make a post saying "how will we know if blitz will post in lylo? why take that risk?" and say that it's predicated on him being scum ONE DAY before lylo. if he's scum, why do you even care if he's posting or not? also saying my tone is different is a cop out. there are a variety of reasons that my tone could be different that aren't in relation to me being scum (especially considering that as scum, this would all have been COMPLETELY EXPECTED by me). actually wait...if you think that i'm scum and want to take blitz w/me during lylo as a mislynch, that IMPLIES that i'm a stronger scum read than blitz (you have no such logic insinuating that blitz is stronger other than he hasn't been posting). why are you trying to get blitz lynched instead of me?

3) if i played with the amount of confidence that i actually have in my reads at this point, then i'd get called out for active lurking (that's what happens when the first flipped scum is a null read of yours and the second one you hard defended). lg reads as town to me from his initial post and his followups to that (and yeah, his tone is good). as scum, i'd just expect some list post from him but w/o any effort to build on those reads. I WAS PLANNING ON VOTING SB today but his posts today read a lot better to me, although admittedly i'm not as sure about him (pretty sure marth still wants me to vote sb). not sure if you'd claim vig or not as SK, but marth said it was possible considering you were planning on claiming it right afterwords anyways.

4) assuming that blitz is town and scum autowins tomorrow, it's still better to not lynch him today because at least we have more townies who can comment on the lynch as opposed to tomorrow.

[ZoesMad]

Just a quick update before school and work ugh. Halfway through manix ISO, leaning town as of now, I think his Strawman case had legit progression and he defended it well. Haven't read the recent Refa vs. Manix posts, Blitz literally did nothing helpful in his last post, like it was a giant wall of nothing. Even if he's done this as town that's really egregious. How would you not tell people who you want lycnhed when making a post of that size?

Blitz just jumped in my priorities, more to come later.

[Grace]

well before i had fakevigged, i had already told blitz i had not crumbed a killing role. also, as i mentioned in my code message to sb, i had put my crumbs in my first two posts.

yay rvs wagons, this is gonna be a blast

something like a bomb (death trigger), and

idk i just wanna party for my first game back in a while

partyhost

tl;dr my role name is vengeful partyhost. i purposely set those up so that i'd have at least some backing later on.

if you actually had any idea how i play as scum in general, you know that i'm bad with attention and negative pressure and i tend to just roll over and die. this has not changed.

[Grace]

in any case, i don't feel like you're listening to me anyway, so i don't think we can have any meaningful discourse. good talk

[Grace]

going to sleep. inevitably i'm going to have to wake up and respond to things since that's the bastion of activity these days

[Mitsuki]

No diguis bajanades! [Votals 4.1]

Manix (1): Refa
Not voting: Everyone else

You have a bit less than 54 hours left in the phase! It takes 3 votes to hammer someone.

I will be away during this weekend but I will still do votals. You will probably have to PM me if you have any questions, though.

[Refa]

well before i had fakevigged, i had already told blitz i had not crumbed a killing role. also, as i mentioned in my code message to sb, i had put my crumbs in my first two posts.

something like a bomb (death trigger), and

partyhost

tl;dr my role name is vengeful partyhost. i purposely set those up so that i'd have at least some backing later on.

if you actually had any idea how i play as scum in general, you know that i'm bad with attention and negative pressure and i tend to just roll over and die. this has not changed.

oh, right. didn't notice that.

man, i asked marth about that and he was like "I DUNNO, MANIX HAS NEVER BEEN ITP BEFORE" so i figured you'd just play the same as you do as town (except trying to hide more and not making any significant votes).

in any case, i don't feel like you're listening to me anyway, so i don't think we can have any meaningful discourse. good talk

i dunno, you might be right? ugh, gonna take a step back here.

##Unvote

[charlie_]

I think I buy Blitz's theory wrt the setup but I think the third scum is a traitor for both balance reasons and because of how the kills have played out.

I dislike both Manix's tone on the last page and the way Refa backed off. Looking at nightkills atm to try and figure this out.

[charlie_]

Gaius, did Prims send in a night action before he subbed out?

[charlie_]

my post deleted itself twice

tl;dr version

-dont think refa would kill omega

-bbm kill points to gaius/manix

-eclipse kill is mostly null

-blitz play is townie and is actually probably too strong in role to be mafia traitor

screw you mitsuki i want our power roles back

[charlie_]

blitz play as in his recent posts which i dont think he'd be able to fake very well as scum

[Grace]

-bbm kill points to gaius/manix

don't agree, i went over this earlier but no one wanted to lynch bbm and i don't think that was going to change. probably made the most sense as a kill from literally anyone

[ZoesMad]

Manix looks town to me after finishing his ISO, mostly already said why earlier, will elaborate if needed. SB I don't have a night action, Prims last message was personal stuff.

Bringing back wagon analysis, why does it have to be a mafia traitor in the first place @everyone? I also agree with Manix's post above.

Elieson (7): Prims, Eclipse, Yoloswag, Manix, SB, Gilgamesh, Refa
SB (4): Strawman, Elieson, Freyjadour, Blitz
Yoloswag (1): Dorian

I find it sort of weird that Scum!Blitz would join a wagon with his two other scumbuddies but like, crazier things have happened and Blitz's quality of play just pings me really hard.

SB was the counterwagon to Elie, so like I think thats pretty good sell for towncred.

Refa was a consolidation (iirc), Manix was middle of the road too, he was more worried about Strawman at the time. Null, I think Refa was on SB for most of that day.

Freyjadour (5): BBM, SB, Prims, Manix, Gilgamesh
Blitz (1): Eclipse
Gilgamesh (1): Refa
Not voting: Blitz, Freyjadou

Meh this day idrk what to get from it, I think BBM was the main one to get the lynch off anyway from what I remember. Blitz empty vote I need to look into.

Gilgamesh (4): Blitz, Manix, BBM, Gilgamesh

Blitz (2): Prims, SB
Not voting: Refa

Looked into Refa's empty vote, all he had was an unvote on Scum Blitz. This devalidates Manix's argument about Refa's 180 imo, but like he never had a scumread after that. I need to double check about him keeping Blitz in his lynch prio

I think looking at everything Refa's our best bet at scum. ##Vote: Refa

[ZoesMad]

Also Refa's votes don't really change his scumminess if we think its a traitor or a regular member.

[Grace]

oh my god i'm so dumb why didn't this come to mind earlier

assuming mafia traitor (who doesn't know their teammates), why the hell was blitz contacting only scummy people d1? if this is the case, wouldn't it then follow that he was trying to look for his teammates?

@everyone: post opinions on this asap

[Grace]

this would also explain why blitz "thought" there was a limited scum vig, because at a guess the traitor would probably have that, which only really makes sense to argue if you know it exists (see: occam's razor, and this is not the simplest answer)

[ZoesMad]

*me after looking up Occam's Razor

I digress, I think that could be a good tell IF and only if we're super confident on the traitor. Like, I don't get the reasons you guys have dismissed N3. Is it because nobody else makes sense as buddies with Elie and Freyja (which you guys would understand more than me having been around longer.)

[ZoesMad]

Simple wikipedia is pretty cool actually, now I see where Manix is coming from. Shamelessly stolen.

Example: Two trees have fallen down during a windy night. Think about these two possible explanations:

1. The wind has blown them down.
2. Two meteorites have each taken one tree down, and after that hit each other and removed any trace of themselves.

[Grace]

blitz gave frey reads during ed2. which implies they were in contact probably d1. idk about you but

[ZoesMad]

im more worried that it requires us to assume there's a traitor when I don't see huge evidence towards one ( I have to read that SB post about it again)

[Grace]

this is also true, but honestly seems a bit better than presuming there's an sk, given the context of the setup as we know for now

[ZoesMad]

So its a traitor vig going by that line of logic to explain the 2 kills N1. Who in this list would kill Yolo N1 like that?

[Grace]

anyone who paid attention to his posts (spoiler: not me since when people were saying about him saying he could be proven town i got real confused)

[Refa]

>looks like you're getting lynched, refa

>checks thread despite wanting to take at least a 12 hour break from this game

screw you, marth.

[Refa]

okay, only this.

assuming mafia traitor (who doesn't know their teammates), why the hell was blitz contacting only scummy people d1? if this is the case, wouldn't it then follow that he was trying to look for his teammates?
@everyone: post opinions on this asap

i'd buy it.