Antihero Anonydraft Mafia (Game Over)

[Olivier]

2 minutes ago, Kokichi Ouma said:

I think I just found it and I dunno. I think Beast was just on the warpath with just about everyone and they never had a chance to hardpush Mello to back up their words.

Do you think he'd bring attention to his scumbuddy that everyone else was dismissing?

Also shouldn't we massclaim today?

[Cú Chulainn]

They didn't make that much noise about it. If anything it'd be weird to leave their scumbuddy out if they were a slot under heavy suspicion because as soon as scum flips town always tears into their reads. I need to look tomorrow morning to check this makes sense otherwise though and it's still probably just Toshio?

I don't think massclaim matters but if it does Toshio > Mello > Nagito > Lapis should be the order. It might be better to avoid it to just keep scum in the dark though because their third role is less obvious so it's less likely to produce anything meaningful than Strongman hunting.

[Cú Chulainn]

I thought about it a little more and massclaim does nothing for us. Scum isn't going to CC anything because they have no motive to fake anything but vanilla and all it does is draw a map towards our power roles. They can't even rolespec what town has because of the format, unlike a normal game.

[Olivier]

4 minutes ago, Kokichi Ouma said:

They didn't make that much noise about it. If anything it'd be weird to leave their scumbuddy out if they were a slot under heavy suspicion because as soon as scum flips town always tears into their reads. I need to look tomorrow morning to check this makes sense otherwise though and it's still probably just Toshio?

I don't think Mello was under heavy suspicion, though.  I agree that it's probably Toshio!  Honestly, I'm very tempted to quickhammer and the only thing stopping me is that I want to let Lapis post.  I just want to be sure that this is a scum lynch after fucking up.

Too lazy to quote but fair enough regarding massclaim.

[Olivier]

...Toshio should probably claim, though.

[Refakitty³]

Nearly done, but I'll get this out before too many posts happen.

I'm annoyed with myself that I didn't switch to Beast, but hindsight is 20/20.

On 12/01/2018 at 2:24 PM, Mello said:

If people are that set on endeavour, I don't see the value of waiting the whole phase.

@lapis; I'm fairly confident rick is scum. Also a couple of gut reads I need to look into.

@omar; fair enough, but still, rick said this about an hour before toshio switched, which IMO is stronger reasoning to switch to crawler. If scum!toshio wanted to split on the wagons but didn't want to use his buddy's reasoning and couldn't come up with a better reason, I think he'd wait a bit.

This is the basis for my Toshio townread, can people address this?

I'll admit I have no idea about his content, that's the next thing for me to read.

I say we forget about massclaim. I'll use my own judgment once Toshio claims.

[Cú Chulainn]

@Nagito Komaeda I meant Beast themselves as the slot under suspicion, not Mello. Don’t quickhammer because I want to reread Mello first and make sure that I’m not missing anything (but first sleep).

@Mello I thought you were scumreading Toshio now? I don’t get it. Anyway I think switching to Crowler makes sense because his reads were actually good and now I feel kind of shit for lynching him and he was due a sub which could be scarier than Endeavour who just claimed Vanilla as well. I don’t properly understand your townread’s basis to begin with though.

[Olivier]

Got it.  Don't really have anything else to say until other people post.

@Mello I don't see how that's telling.  Scum!Toshio not sheeping his buddy's better case isn't optimal play, but it's not an incredibly dumb move or anything.

[Refakitty³]

@Kokichi if you mean my first post today, that was a jab at town's scumhunting skills. If mafia wanted to push the lynch towards crowler, why would toshio do it with spurious reasoning rather than rick do it with decent reasoning?

@Nagito duly noted. I'd be lying if I said I didn't have stronger associative reads.

[Rain Nijika]

I was starting to get paranoid by Batter after this third consecutive ML, but I'm glad that I didn't turn on him. I'm also glad that we didn't massclaim yesterday for that same reason, but it's unfortunate that it was the strongman down and not the other role. 

I think Toshio should claim (with draft order) before we lynch him, but I'm entirely on board with it today, as I was starting to scumread him a little yesterday before Beast came on and lightningrodded attention, and I think Beast/Nagito looks good on Nagito, so I'm inclined to put that suspicion aside. The other thing is, maybe this is a little unfair, but I didn't really get the impression that they were scumhunting, especially towards the later parts of D2/D Three.

Ouma IMO has been townie from the beginning and if I'm going to be honest I've been kinda leaning on him for some of my reads. I think Omar is also up there as townie, which means by PoE if it isn't toshio it's either Nagito or Mello. Of those two, I think it would be more likely to be Nagito due to Mello's D1 which Beast was trying to shoot down, but I really think it's going to be Toshio.

[Rain Nijika]

Also, I don't think we should massclaim anymore. There was a reason I brought it up, but that reason's moot at this point.

[Refakitty³]

##vote: Nagito Komaeda

Day 1:
Early game is fair for ED1, nothing to say here.
I don't like how you handled Crowler LD1. Starting from here, you were mostly OK with him but one of his comments bothered you. Why didn't it bother you that Crowler subbed out without addressing it? Your first reaction is to analyse the claim, which I think was a waste of time; not least because you changed your mind on whether you would lynch it when your other reads didn't go anywhere. The issues you had with his slot felt like an afterthought, which would benefit scum trying to avoid being accused of pushing for a mislynch.

Day 2:
You says the reaction was because you thought Endeavour was swinging the lynch away from his buddy. but;
Though you were ahead on votes, Faye was well ahead in terms of support for the lynch. Lapis and Kochiki both wanted to lynch Faye and the impression I got is that they were voting you because it was more productive.
Even if you were somehow lynched, Faye is still on the chopping block and Endeavour looks super bad for swinging the lynch your way.
FYPOV being lynched should not be a bad thing if it means the last two mafia are cleared out.
At that point, you were townreading Endeavour, so suddenly calling him opportunistic instead of getting him to explain his read better seems like nervous scum.

Day 3:
Honestly, can't really fault it. I would have said you weren't proactive enough in pursuing options other than Endeavour when you were against the lynch, but I didn't re-evaluate him after new Beast's posts.
So as you say, blame it on the ennui.

Day 4:

There feels like a bump in motivation and confidence which I don't feel is faked. sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

 

This case felt a lot stronger before Beast's flip and Day 4. Still, it's either this or admit I was wrong on Toshio, since I don't think Lapis is Beast's buddy.

[Refakitty³]

I agree with Omar re: Toshio's stance on Crowler's content. I could do a more indepth read but I don't think I'd change my mind, let alone everyone else's. Laziness wins out.

[Rain Nijika]

So does that mean you're retracting your suspicion on Nagito/ suspecting toshio more now?

[All Might]

Hold up don't hammer me I'm reading. 

Firstly though, Omar has misrepped me in his night post (pedit @Mello rippers looked like you got got). I said that Crowler suspected Beast for his badly EXPLAINED opinions. Dunno how he got this mixed up because I quoted him saying this to me before. He's been tunnelling me for a while now and doesn't really have any reason to suspect me that isn't just forged out of a poor analysis of my interactions with Dr Crowler and Rick that seem to be forged by an assumption that I'm scum and fitting the pieces in afterwards. Doubt he's scum though because that'd mean bussing his buddy but he might have committed to his performance as it would let him coast all game. Maybe his game plan is to coast though tbf.

I accidentally ignored his Endeavor stuff but the gist of it was I wasn't convinced. I don't think it's as strong as an association as you think especially since it seemed to revolve around me being mafia coordinating with Rick somehow. I feel like I'm misunderstanding it but it just seemed like he assumed Endeavor was town and that I was scum

3 hours ago, Kokichi Ouma said:

I feel like he's approaching the game with a very narrow minded view and rarely steps back to look at the players he's already reading town, which is a bad place to be! His interaction with Rick ("am I the scummiest person") also looks made up to me, like the conversation was very forced. Neither of them seemed to gain a thing from the reaction because I don't remember Ozaki talking about Rick much afterwards anyway! I feel like his hopeboy read is the best example of his lack of developments in reads because it was based on something on D2 that most people disregarded but he seems to think it's still a strong tell until he runs out of people to lynch. I don't remember him ever really looking into hopeboy afterwards which is a lame way to approach it if you're town. Also (added in 2 minutes between video games) I remember him being weirdly dismissive of Beast suspicions without directly addressing him.
 

Most of this is just saying I am scummy for playing badly which admittedly I kinda was, was way too lazy late D2/ all of D3. The lynches were all lined up so I couldn't be bothered to analyse and scumhunt much. I thought I might as well just wait for associative reads and things from flips and kill choices rather than putting in work my b. However playing badly and holding onto townreads "foolishly" isn't scummy. Still have _some_ faith in that analysis btw.

I was townreading Rick at the time and didn't see what he was doing as scummy and it didn't affect my read so why would it lead to anything? What does town!me do better here? Rick misplayed by pressuring me which led to an empty pressure vote and I'm being called scummy for his misplay. @Lapis Lazuli @Omar Little @Nagito Komaeda I strongly advise you guys to read my interactions with Rick again under the assumption that I am town townreading Rick rather than assuming I'm his buddy and we're trying to fake interactions in that manner for some reason. At the very least it should seem plausible because I know it to be true.

Anyway I don't think scum!Beast switches from pressuring me to pressuring his buddy in Lapis so the only person that makes sense as scum is Kokichi.

##Vote: Kokichi

Lynch Kokichi -> Nagito -> Omar or the win imo. Mello is definitely town.

[All Might]

People saying Beast and Lapis wouldn't bus each other should explain why Beast would jump into the thread voting scum!me when up until that point I had no pressure on me at that point in time whatsoever.

[Rain Nijika]

Toshio, claim w/order.

@Nagito Komaeda, are you still here?

[Olivier]

Yeah, although I'm distracted ATM.

[All Might]

I'll wait for responses first thanks.

[All Might]

Lapis might be scum because she's awfully thirsty for my roleclaim.

[All Might]

Actually we should nl tonight because we have to at some point so it might as well be today.

[Olivier]

We're never no lynching.

[All Might]

Why not? It's the best play. 5/1 into ml puts it into mylo. I feel like the main reason people wnat me lynched is PoE anyway so why not wait a night.to see if that holds.

[C. C.]

I feel like if we no Lynch scum will just night kill mello or something putting us back to square 1. I'll respond to your other points in a few but (well trying lol) to do homework but this is an easy thing to say.

[All Might]

Anyway only 2 mislynches mean that my lynch order would be Kokichi -> Omar. #noOMGUS