FE:Warriors 13th most played Switch game in NA

[Azure Sen]

1 hour ago, Medeus said:

If Nintendo had a strict '1 million or you're done' policy, then Pikmin (which hasn't sold a million since the first), Xenoblade (which only recently got a million seller), Star Fox (which hasn't sold a million since Adventure), Metroid (which had Zero Mission outright flop before Other M was a thing), Fire Emblem (didn't sell a million before Awakening), and a few other series would've been dead a long time ago, and series like Mother/Earthbound wouldn't have been allowed to be completed and they wouldn't help keep Bayonetta going. Additionally, some of those franchises (like Metroid) have had pretty bad failures that the company has allowed for them to bounce back from, so it's pretty clear that such a thing is not a clear cut criteria to make Nintendo care about you.

I think you're letting your bias show a bit here. Nintendo does sometimes have lofty expectations like every other company (though thankfully they're not Capcom in that regard), but they do understand that just because something doesn't reach a certain number that it is automatically a failure. They have and still do continue lower tier franchises that are never going to reach the numbers of Mario or even Kirby, and I'm pretty sure it's because they understand that some franchises are more niche then others and can be successful in their own right.  

While I do think Jedi exaggerated somewhat, the forecast doesn't look good for a potential FEW2. Not only did FE Warriors fail to break 100,000 sales in its first week in Japan, but it only got 13,000 sales second week before dropping to the point where Media Creates stops recording exact sales figures because they're so small (under 3000, generally speaking) before dropping off the sales chart entirely by November; I wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't broken 100,000 sales yet despite it being around half a year later. We have no Western sales aside from the usual VGChartz bunk (which has it selling even worse in the US than in Japan, but take that with a whole saltshaker), but that in and of itself is not a good sign. 

Edited February 6, 2018 by Azure Sen

[Watchman]

6 hours ago, Azure Sen said:

While I do think Jedi exaggerated somewhat, the forecast doesn't look good for a potential FEW2. Not only did FE Warriors fail to break 100,000 sales in its first week in Japan, but it only got 13,000 sales second week before dropping to the point where Media Creates stops recording exact sales figures because they're so small (under 3000, generally speaking) before dropping off the sales chart entirely by November; I wouldn't be surprised if it hasn't broken 100,000 sales yet despite it being around half a year later. We have no Western sales aside from the usual VGChartz bunk (which has it selling even worse in the US than in Japan, but take that with a whole saltshaker), but that in and of itself is not a good sign. 

The thing is though Warriors games should never expected to be big sellers if Nintendo thought they could easily replicate the success of HW with a series that has no where near a large following as LoZ's, they deserve the disappointment. I mean for Pete's sake, this is a crossover game of a tactical RPG series that never had that big of a following in Japan and a beat 'em up/hack and slash series that regularly gets lambasted by a lot of reviewers and mainstream gamers in the west as being a "mash X to win" game.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Watchman

[Jedi]

11 hours ago, Medeus said:

If Nintendo had a strict '1 million or you're done' policy, then Pikmin (which hasn't sold a million since the first), Xenoblade (which only recently got a million seller), Star Fox (which hasn't sold a million since Adventure), Metroid (which had Zero Mission outright flop before Other M was a thing), Fire Emblem (didn't sell a million before Awakening), and a few other series would've been dead a long time ago, and series like Mother/Earthbound wouldn't have been allowed to be completed and they wouldn't help keep Bayonetta going. Additionally, some of those franchises (like Metroid) have had pretty bad failures that the company has allowed for them to bounce back from, so it's pretty clear that such a thing is not a clear cut criteria to make Nintendo care about you.

I think you're letting your bias show a bit here. Nintendo does sometimes have lofty expectations like every other company (though thankfully they're not Capcom in that regard), but they do understand that just because something doesn't reach a certain number that it is automatically a failure. They have and still do continue lower tier franchises that are never going to reach the numbers of Mario or even Kirby, and I'm pretty sure it's because they understand that some franchises are more niche then others and can be successful in their own right.  

 

It was mostly exaggeration with the 1 million mark, but they've let quite a number of things drop and have had some very bad choices in the past twenty years, to think they are perfect (which most people here do) is ludicrous.

My point is mostly to not expect an FEW2 at all, if it happens thats nice and I'll be glad to cover it, but we need to keep our heads out of the clouds and our expectations grounded. I expect nothing or a re-release sometime down in the future if even that. 

[guedesbrawl]

FEW2 makes too much sense not to do it. Especially given that the core criticism of FEW1 gets solved by 3 more focus games. Focus games that involve Ike and Roy, tho of the biggest popularity juggernauts of the entire franchise.

FEW2 is also going to be way less expensive to make than FEW1, since they have the core game already there. It's a waste of resources not to use it.

It's totally going to happen. But if you guys want to take the approach of "no expectation, no disappointment," sure. Go ahead.

 

[Fabulously Olivier]

I hope that, if we do not get an FEW2, they atleast act in good faith and give us dlc for the characters they are holding back to sell the sequel. I would be willing to pay for Ike, Roy, and anyone else they may be saving as selling points.

[Arthur97]

6 hours ago, Jedi said:

It was mostly exaggeration with the 1 million mark, but they've let quite a number of things drop and have had some very bad choices in the past twenty years, to think they are perfect (which most people here do) is ludicrous.

My point is mostly to not expect an FEW2 at all, if it happens thats nice and I'll be glad to cover it, but we need to keep our heads out of the clouds and our expectations grounded. I expect nothing or a re-release sometime down in the future if even that. 

As far as IS goes (they are often seen as one and the same) they aren't believed to be perfect by any means. Also, their decisions haven't been as bad as, say, Sega. If it dropped, there was probably a pretty good reason. Even something like Earthbound which should have dropped was given Beginnings. It was belated, but it was something.

You're sounding awfully pessimistic, but, then again, many pessimists consider themselves realists.

[Azure Sen]

13 hours ago, Watchman said:

The thing is though Warriors games should never expected to be big sellers if Nintendo thought they could easily replicate the success of HW with a series that has no where near a large following as LoZ's, they deserve the disappointment. I mean for Pete's sake this is a crossover game of a tactical RPG series that never had that big of a following in Japan and a beat 'em up/hack and slash series that regularly gets lambasted by a lot of reviewers and mainstream gamers in the west as being a "mash X to win" game.

Even for a Warriors game in Japan 60,000 first week sales is pretty low; the only reason HW, which had similarly mediocre first-week sales in Japan at 70,000, became a smash success was its overseas sales. To compare to some other Warriors spin-offs' first weeks in Japan, One Piece: Pirate Warriors sold 600,000 copies first week and Dynasty Warriors: Gundam sold about 100,000 its first week. 

8 hours ago, guedesbrawl said:

It's totally going to happen. But if you guys want to take the approach of "no expectation, no disappointment," sure. Go ahead.

Hyrule Warriors, the smash hit that's now four years old at this point, has gotten nothing but two ports despite its fantastic sales. Why would FE Warriors, a game which data shows having none of the same selling power, get a sequel when HW hasn't?

3 hours ago, Arthur97 said:

You're sounding awfully pessimistic, but, then again, many pessimists consider themselves realists.

I'm not quite sure how it's pessimistic to expect that a game with passable but ultimately mediocre sales won't get a sequel given Nintendo's past actions. If anything, I'd argue people are being way too optimistic about FEW 2 based on nothing but two statements from KT, who don't get to decide whether or not a sequel happens, and their own personal wishes for a sequel.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Azure Sen

[Florete]

6 minutes ago, Azure Sen said:

Even for a Warriors game in Japan 60,000 first week sales is pretty low; the only reason HW, which had similarly mediocre first-week sales in Japan at 70,000, became a smash success was its overseas sales. To compare to some other Warriors spin-offs' first weeks in Japan, One Piece: Pirate Warriors sold 600,000 copies first week and Dynasty Warriors: Gundam sold about 100,000 its first week.

One Piece and Gundam are insanely huge franchises in Japan. This is not a fair comparison.

 

[guedesbrawl]

2 hours ago, Azure Sen said:

 

Hyrule Warriors, the smash hit that's now four years old at this point, has gotten nothing but two ports despite its fantastic sales. Why would FE Warriors, a game which data shows having none of the same selling power, get a sequel when HW hasn't?

 

Because their situations are completely different. Hyrule Warriors launched on a dead console and the devs used almost all of the major zelda games for that content. Only Wind Waker was left, which is just enough material for an extra bit of story. Then came the idea to have it on 3DS, but the inferior performance levels turned off a lot of people.

FESwitch launched on a successful console, didn't even come close to fully utilizing its series's cast, and launched very early in the Switch's life. There isn't a need to re-do work in a second console like with the Wii U version.

Lastly, it can be used to help market FESwitch, or cash in on its (inevitable) success.

You also need to understand thta costs go down significantly when you have a good base game to work a sequel around. If FEW2 does the exact same sales of FEW1, it's bringing a lot more profit.

Your other comparisons are quite unfair but that was said by someone else already.

[The DanMan]

2 hours ago, Azure Sen said:

To compare to some other Warriors spin-offs' first weeks in Japan, One Piece: Pirate Warriors sold 600,000 copies first week and Dynasty Warriors: Gundam sold about 100,000 its first week. 

That's as close to apples to oranges as you can get with musou games. One Piece and Gundam are absolutely massive in Japan.

Also, FEW had better sales at launch in Japan than Warriors All-Stars, Spirit of Sanada, DW8E, SW4E, SW Chronicles, Hyrule Warriors Legends... pretty much everything in recent years but main titles and Hyrule Warriors.

2 hours ago, Azure Sen said:

Hyrule Warriors, the smash hit that's now four years old at this point, has gotten nothing but two ports despite its fantastic sales. Why would FE Warriors, a game which data shows having none of the same selling power, get a sequel when HW hasn't?

There is both a stated desire to make it among the dev team and a far bigger potential roster to exploit. HW was half oddball picks from the start and has only even farther out-there choices for any additional characters (besides the 4 from BotW); there's very little that could be actually done for a sequel.

2 hours ago, Azure Sen said:

I'm not quite sure how it's pessimistic to expect that a game with passable but ultimately mediocre sales won't get a sequel given Nintendo's past actions. If anything, I'd argue people are being way too optimistic about FEW 2 based on nothing but two statements from KT, who don't get to decide whether or not a sequel happens, and their own personal wishes for a sequel.

Given those statements and what I've pointed out, people have no grounds to be cautiously optimistic? It's definitely no guarantee, but it can't be ruled out; honestly, this reads like concern trolling (especially with the sales "comparison" to Pirate Warriors and Gundam).

[Azure Sen]

21 hours ago, Florete said:

One Piece and Gundam are insanely huge franchises in Japan. This is not a fair comparison.

Those two comparisons weren't the best, I'll admit. I'm sometimes blind to how uneven popularity factor is between series in different mediums. That being said, FE Warriors' sales still don't inspire hope for a sequel in me.

19 hours ago, guedesbrawl said:

FESwitch launched on a successful console, didn't even come close to fully utilizing its series's cast, and launched very early in the Switch's life. There isn't a need to re-do work in a second console like with the Wii U version.

I mean, I agree with you that there's a lot they could do with a sequel, but I don't think that means a sequel is guaranteed or that it affects the possibility we'll even get one.

19 hours ago, guedesbrawl said:

You also need to understand thta costs go down significantly when you have a good base game to work a sequel around. If FEW2 does the exact same sales of FEW1, it's bringing a lot more profit.

They still have to create new art assets, get new VA work for both old and new characters, program new movesets, write new supports, etc. Development costs will be lessened by the pre-existing engine, but they'll still be pretty significant. And at the end of the day, considering FE Warriors' sales, Nintendo might not consider it worth it.

20 hours ago, The DanMan said:

Given those statements and what I've pointed out, people have no grounds to be cautiously optimistic? It's definitely no guarantee, but it can't be ruled out; honestly, this reads like concern trolling (especially with the sales "comparison" to Pirate Warriors and Gundam).

I'm concern trolling by...making a comparison that in hindsight even I'll admit was a not great one, and pointing out that people are taking two statements made by people who don't get to decide whether or not a sequel happens as proof that a sequel is happening or going to happen and that I find it overblown. So not only do you not know what concern trolling is, but you're twisting my words and ignoring the context. Splendid.

As for the rest of your post, this little bit of out of nowhere ad hominum has rendered it not worth responding to it or any other thoughts you have on the subject.

[The DanMan]

43 minutes ago, Azure Sen said:

I'm concern trolling by...making a comparison that in hindsight even I'll admit was a not great one, and pointing out that people are taking two statements made by people who don't get to decide whether or not a sequel happens as proof that a sequel is happening or going to happen and that I find it overblown. So not only do you not know what concern trolling is, but you're twisting my words and ignoring the context. Splendid.

As for the rest of your post, this little bit of out of nowhere ad hominum has rendered it not worth responding to it or any other thoughts you have on the subject.

Only in this post did you admit that it was a poor comparison. You went hard on this in the Discord and then took it here. Are people thinking a sequel is all but confirmed being too optimistic? Yes. But conversely, saying there's virtually no chance strikes me as too pessimistic for reasons I have listed. The hyper cynicism both you and Jedi displayed seems both random (why all of a sudden did you decide to rain on this parade) and easily countered. The people at the furthest extreme, who think a sequel absolutely will happen, aren't going to be convinced, and those of us who are unsure but have some hope have tried to justify it.

That said, I will agree that I somewhat misunderstood what exactly concern trolling qualified as and am sorry for both firing that out and not fact checking myself. I was frustrated from the discussion in the Discord and seeing it pop up here (alongside your self-admittedly poor example) caused me to snap.

Edited February 7, 2018 by The DanMan