Twitch Plays Pokemon Mafia NOC(15p)(GAME OVER TOWN WINS)

[Shinori]

If redirect has higher priority he would be redirected then blocked.

[Shinori]

Also that's grasping because some hosts would still just right it down as a redirect and role block even if the roleblock has a higher priority.  This depends on the host's choice of what they choose to say and how they choose to work priorities.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

Not if redirect has higher priority, right? So my action gets redirected, then blocked? I don't know whether there are conventions for this, are there?

that's possible, yeah.  but thinking about it, why would scum roleblock and redirect you*?  imo this implies that there's some scum role that can make actions fail.  this means that baldrick is at least not incriminated by that.

also idt it's safeguard because i targeted everyone last night and it didn't fail.

*i'm assuming scum redirected you because idt anyone has claimed otherwise

##Unvote until i can think things over later

[Athena_57]

7 minutes ago, Refa said:

that's possible, yeah.  but thinking about it, why would scum roleblock and redirect you*?  imo this implies that there's some scum role that can make actions fail.  this means that baldrick is at least not incriminated by that.

also idt it's safeguard because i targeted everyone last night and it didn't fail.

*i'm assuming scum redirected you because idt anyone has claimed otherwise

##Unvote until i can think things over later

Uh, hm, good point. I suppose if we have a town!redirecter, I'd expect them to not claim (?), so scum!SB could've blocked me and town!redirecter redirected me?

How does this imply scum has an action-fail role?

[Refa]

1 minute ago, athena_57 said:

Uh, hm, good point. I suppose if we have a town!redirecter, I'd expect them to not claim (?), so scum!SB could've blocked me and town!redirecter redirected me?

How does this imply scum has an action-fail role?

Yeah, maybe you're right about the redirector being town.

Well, scum wouldn't hook you and redirect you.  So if scum redirected you and your action still failed, it means there's another unclaimed role that can cause actions to fail (likely from scum, that's way too much of a coincidence that they redirected you to a target that would cause your action to fail).  But yeah, if the redirector is town,  then I'm probably being dumb here.

##Vote: Baldrick

[Iris]

VOTALS:
(3) Baldrick: Shinori, Orihime, Refa
(1) Killthestory: Jaybee
(1) Refa: Killthestory

Not Voting: athena_57, Baldrick, Conqueror

There are ~55 hours left. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch at deadline.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Iris

[Athena_57]

13 minutes ago, Refa said:

Well, scum wouldn't hook you and redirect you.  So if scum redirected you and your action still failed, it means there's another unclaimed role that can cause actions to fail (likely from scum, that's way too much of a coincidence that they redirected you to a target that would cause your action to fail).  But yeah, if the redirector is town,  then I'm probably being dumb here.

I agree completely with the first part, but I assume you're thinking they hijacked me to an ascetic or something? That doesn't explain Baldrick's action failing though, he targeted Conqueror, the same person his action succeeded on N2.

So that requires a scumrole turning people ascetic for a night? Is that a thing that's done sometimes? Just trying to follow your train of thought here assuming a scum!redirector.

Ignoring the stuff regarding me, another possibility for town!Baldrick's role failing is Conqueror is an x-shot ascetic/commuter? Since he didn't claim, that implies scum!Conq probably. (FTR this is complete spitballing, I'd vote Baldrick>Conqueror for sure atm)

[Killthestory]

1 hour ago, Shinori said:

That doesn't matter though KTS.

Trying to explain or reason what could be potentially just bad play or a poorly thought out plan or something else along those lines is by far different than trying to argue about what has been so far proven to be something that 100% doesn't match up.

You can go on and on all you want about how it doesn't match scum agenda but unless you can give a reason for what I've stated, Baldrick is currently caught either in a lie or he hasn't told us the FULL truth.  There is currently zero reason for his role to have failed since he should have been informed if he was redirected and he hasn't stated that he was redirected.

that's true. it just doesn't feel right, but maybe it's because, as someone said, baldrick isn't giving us the full truth rather than the other way around. i don't know what he hoped for in claiming inventor as scum when giving items to scumbuddies, but i suppose i must consider it.

[Killthestory]

also, after careful deliberation, i will not reveal who i cop tonight.

i dearly hope we hit a wolf today, so my actions can be taken at face value tomorrow. i could either completely confirm someone in the poe tomorrow or altogether solve the game with a guilty, so like, if you've ever needed complete motivation as to finding wolves, this is it. kill a wolf today, and we win. hit a villager though? we're almost sure to lose.

[Refa]

35 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

So that requires a scumrole turning people ascetic for a night? Is that a thing that's done sometimes? Just trying to follow your train of thought here assuming a scum!redirector.

Ignoring the stuff regarding me, another possibility for town!Baldrick's role failing is Conqueror is an x-shot ascetic/commuter? Since he didn't claim, that implies scum!Conq probably. (FTR this is complete spitballing, I'd vote Baldrick>Conqueror for sure atm)

Yeah, it's called Safeguard.  Safeguard is a pretty stupid scum role though, because scum can just safeguard their kill target every night, and they didn't do that on N2...

It's possible.

[Athena_57]

N2 was when Shinori got docced presumably right? Oh man, it would actually be great if this was real then.

[Athena_57]

Great = doesn't make any sense but is pretty funny

[Shinori]

Safeguard has me thinking that scum doesn't have a redirect and that's it's town sided.

Scum probably just safeguarded their killing target so they couldn't be redirected or tracked instead of targeting their kill target.

Mack/Elemina had scummy play D1/D2.  I need to do some rereading cause I mean KTS is/was playing differently than last game and I think I'm just putting him in the scum pile for not enough good reasoning.

Baldrick has to be scum though so we should lynch that.

I'm gonna go and reread Mack/elemina/Orihime posts because that might be where it's at.

[Shinori]

Or if scum does have a redirect they just chose to redirect people to their member that they safeguarded to make town waste roles while also preventing trackers on their killer or something.

[Shinori]

Safeguard is all hypothetical though and Baldrick needs to be lynched imo.

[Shinori]

Also in a low power game someone getting a 1x cop after a tracker dies I could see making sense, especially with Refa having gained some other role upon a townie dying.  That also seems more town-thought than scum thought because town would potentially want extra power as their other roles die maybe.

[Conqueror]

Making another quick post.

The problem with the idea of a town redirector is that I literally can't see who it would be in this position. Just going down the list of players and thinking about who would redirect Athena -> Elemina on N2 as town (it would have to be someone scumreading athena and Elemina, presumably) leaves me with only like 1 player who i'm pretty sure isn't the redirector. That means someone is lying and is actually a mafia redirector. I don't have all the role info on the table but other people can run the poe in their heads and tell me what they think about this.

If a mafia redirector exists, then why do the scum both redirect and roleblock Athena on N2? It doesn't make any sense. I guess there could be a scum safeguard or maybe Orihime is ascetic (@Orihime can you confirm or deny this?) but in that case why did they not safeguard Shinori on N2?

None of the role logic makes sense here because let's say even if Orihime is an ascetic that doesn't explain Baldrick's missing N3 action. Safeguard on me would be dumb even if it exists since mafia would use it on one of their team members or the NK. I don't know what's going on here. I guess the logical result is that Baldrick was never roleblocked in the first place? That still doesn't explain why Athena was blocked though.

[Conqueror]

Unless the easy solution is - baldrick is lying. Orihime is ascetic. Redirect was a mafia invention given to a scumbuddy N1 and used N2. That solves almost everything?

I will need to reread later to see if this team actually makes sense though.

[Shinori]

On 5/20/2018 at 3:33 PM, Orihime said:

Don’t have anything quote worthy on page 25 but I get uneasy vibes with Bart not in a “scummy” way but a “this feels weird” way, like they’ve been cased and all that fun stuff and they almost seem like a consensus scumread besides maybe 1 person I’ve seen townread them? In a game with 3 scum with the off chance of 4 with no counter wagon from what I’ve seen it makes me feel scum are fine with the game state. I don’t wanna vote Bart today.  

On 5/20/2018 at 4:13 PM, Orihime said:

I suppose if the game is rather slow you're correct on 2 votes/3 votes not making a huge impact.  If people were okay with an Eury lynch perhaps I'm reading the game state incorrectly and need to revisit it. I suppose Bart dying  would answer a lot of questions but I don't think it'd flip scum at the moment?
The main point I'm trying to make is if bart has been a popular sr with little chance of a counter wagon that slot feels more likely it'd be town

On 5/20/2018 at 4:19 PM, Orihime said:

I would like to join you on this

##vote SB
Also KTS I'm elemina's slot if you didn't know 

These are bad posts imo.

[Baldrick]

Baldrick    inventor
JB       inventor
Kill      deputy
Refa    illuminator, backup
athena  something, 1xcommuter?
Conq, Shin, Ori    ???

Unless one of those three did something to interfere with athena, there's still no good explanation for what happened to them N2. Redirector + safeguard means scum didn't use a SG to kill shinori N2 after he crumbed whatever his owl role is. Redirector + ascetic contradicts Refa targetting everyone successfully last night. He could be lying, lynch him immediately if there's a scum!ascetic. Roleblocker on Athena doesn't explain them being redirected.

 

Unless a town!redirector targetted Athena, SB could not have been the reason Athena was blocked. Only Athena can cause people targetting them to fail, and they'd know if they were redirected to themselves on that night. Which means THERE'S AN UNCLAIMED, UNACCOUNTED FOR BLOCK THAT MADE ATHENA'S ACTION FAIL N2.

[Shinori]

So like here's my thoughts and I'm gonna stop trying to second guess myself cause I've bounced around too much this game.

Conf town:
Shinori
Athena
Jaybee

These 3 people don't get lynched ever!

The lynch today(this is conf scum guys let's go):
Baldrick

He gets lynched today serious.

That leaves:
Conq
Refa
KTS
Orihime

Looking at this stuff I really want to believe refa's reaction to me on D2 was town, no way scum!Refa doesn't just roll over there and no way in hell does Scum!Refa go "If you guys lynch me do not go after Shinori afterwards."  Baldrick also push's this slot on D3 and if Baldrick flips scum I think this looks better for Refa.

KTS is playing differently than last game but I feel like I just can't count that game effectively though.  Going off of this game I felt there has been questionable stuff done by him HOWEVER I have reason to believe he might be town with some of the new information that has come to light in this game and at this point in time I'm beginning to just not want to lynch him.

Conq I really feel is town.  He was hard pushing SB(And Refa Albeit) but I really think this slot is town.  I've been tone reading him as town and his interaction with Refa on D3 really reads as town to me.  I really don't think scum come into D3 and then try to push Refa of all people based off of D2 interactions, especially when there were other people to push.  Pretty much his entire D3 is town imo.

Orihime has a lot of really bad defense posts on Bartozio and ends up voting SB but from what I see in her ISO, she doesn't really PUSH for an SB lynch.  She keeps stating "SB is my top SR" but doesn't really case him and doesn't really attempt to convince people to vote him.  This is actually pretty scummy imo.  I feel this is basically her voting on SB so that if SB get's lynched(which he was starting to get a lot of attention from other people) Orihime get's town cred based off of this.

Also I think 1 tracker as the only investigative role besides inventions is pretty weak in a 15 player game.  Yeah, we don't know what Via was but even still, unless they WERE the cop it's pretty weak at the moment.

Adjusting my reads with the above I'm left with basically only Orihime in my last bit of PoE.

I don't want to think Refa is scum, if KTS is scum then town basically had no investigative in a 15 player game with 4 probable scum and I really think Conq is town.

Mack's D1 was super scummy. Elemina's play wasn't that great and looking at their reads:

Quote

TOWN [Elemina > Shinori > SB > Athena > KilltheStory > Bartozio > Baldrick > Eurykins | Ice Sage Jay Bee Rapier | Randa > REFA] SCUM

That's a lot of town people in their scum reads; in fact it looks like all town in my eyes with conq/refa being the two only unknowns, meanwhile two scum reads in the townier side of the list.

More into this case later but I think this is the play.

I think we Lynch Baldrick and then we lynch Orihime honestly.

Then assuming we have only 1 scum remaining Athena roleblocks some one NOT KTS that's in the Conq/refa/Orihime pile.  (Part of this is dependant on peoples roles/claims)

KTS cops someone in the Conq/Refa/Orihime pile and we go from there.

Bartozio (7): athena_57, Killthestory, SB, Refa, Shinori, Snike, Jaybee
SB (2): Conqueror, Orihime
athena_57 (1): Bartozio
Refa (1): Baldrick

This looks interesting.

More on Orihime soon but yeah I think this is actually scum.

[Shinori]

I'll be honest I'm open for claims from everyone because I feel that if people claimed this game is just solved with only one scum remaining after Baldrick lynch.

[Shinori]

Specifically I want Orihime to claim though.  For reasons.

[Shinori]

On 5/20/2018 at 5:09 PM, Orihime said:

@SB. I'm voting you because your interactions with KTS look more so as trying to win an argument and discredit him then solve slots I feel you've also played footsie from what I've seen with a few slots. I don't think you're trying to solve the game more so as survive and be in the game 

On 5/22/2018 at 4:56 PM, Orihime said:

Bartozio (7): athena_57, Killthestory, SB, Refa, Shinori, Snike, Jaybee
SB (2): Conqueror, Orihime
athena_57 (1): Bartozio
Refa (1): Baldrick

Not voting: Eurykins

Out of everyone here I think the scum could be: KTS SB Bald Jaybee I have townreads of some degree on every other player in the game and would be comfortable voting in the 4 in the order of SB>KTS>Bald>Jaybee I'm a bit busy atm but later tonight I plan on using 1 more of my posts to fully explain all of my reads and why I think SB is the best lynch today
I will also ask the mod how to vote in this phase cause I have no idea what vote in role pm means but consider me voting SB at the moment

This is a weird two post.  The first one is the last post Orihime has on the day we lynched Bart with the second quote being her first post during the last day phase.

The first vote kind of implies that she would feel that KTS is town in that scenario because I don't think scum V scum do that.

So suddenly reading KTS as scum here is weird to me when comparing it to her last post.

[Baldrick]

Shinori, I doubt you're reading my posts anymore, but explain how Athena got blocked.

Refa too, since your whole case on me is based on the fact the block on me is unexplained.