I think Chrom will never win a CYL

[IEatLasers]

2 minutes ago, Book Bro said:

Maybe if there's an Awakening remaster and CYL is still a thing. Can't say I'm bummed about it since he's my least favourite lord after Corrin but it must be awful to be a Marth or Chrom fan voting in CYL.

I mean, anything could happen and since it's unlikely that any new games will come out before the next CYL, they could both win, but I think Robin and Seliph will be strong competition.

I don’t think robin will ever beat Chrom, as Chrom has main character bias and is more popular 

but Seliph ot sigurd, Byleth (now thst all 3H lords are gone), and Marth are going to be keeping Chrom out for the next couple years 

[IEatLasers]

2 hours ago, Othin said:

No, that wouldn't make Sigurd likely to win CYL5. Especially if he gets some sort of alt himself in the meantime, which I think is plenty likely. And none of that would make Seliph better poised than Chrom to win CYL6.

If Sigurd wins, all Sigurd votes go to Seliph. And remember Chrom got a legendary now, so Seliph or Sigurd have a HUGE leg up, and if only one gets a legendary then Chrom has no chance whatsoever Against the other 
Marth and Byleth, Sigurd, or Seliph will for sure keep Chrom out of top 2 this and next year. Cyl 6 he has no chance whatsoever 

[Othin]

6 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

If Sigurd wins, all Sigurd votes go to Seliph. And remember Chrom got a legendary now, so Seliph or Sigurd have a HUGE leg up, and if only one gets a legendary then Chrom has no chance whatsoever Against the other 
Marth and Byleth, Sigurd, or Seliph will for sure keep Chrom out of top 2 this and next year. Cyl 6 he has no chance whatsoever 

No, votes don't get passed around that cleanly. And Byleth M will never win because Byleth F will beat him to it.

[Sunwoo]

Are we even certain that one avatar gender winning will take both out of the pool though? Fans of male avatars vs. female avatar seem to be ... uh, pretty exclusive in a not-insignificant number of cases. I imagine that, hypothetically, if male Robin wins CYL and female Robin gets knocked out of the pool, her fans will rage.

[eclipse]

11 hours ago, Seazas said:

He won't and I'm perfectly fine with that. There's better choices anyway.

Yeah.  Like keeping your mouth shut.

6 hours ago, Hilda said:

If anything i think they shouldnt do a CYL online Voting at all.

If anything they should do a massiv voting gauntlet over weeks with eliminations to pick the  4 CYL winners. One F one M.

That way only people who really play Heroes can actually influence the outcome

Hmmm.

Instead of online voting, it should be done via a thing in-game, and only for those games linked to an Nintendo account for X amount of time (say, a month).  And not announce this until a week beforehand, so people don't try to make a bunch of alts.  Would SERIOUSLY cut down on the number of votes, but it'll cut down on the VG salt.

4 hours ago, Nym said:

That's a weird way to pronounce Marth.

I know you're trying to crack a joke, but this isn't the place or time.

---

I like the analysis behind the topic but I don't like the premise behind it.  I suspect that Chrom will get in, but it will most likely be after Robin (a la Smash).

Assuming the game doesn't shut down first.

Edited April 25, 2020 by eclipse

[IEatLasers]

23 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Yeah.  Like keeping your mouth shut.

Hmmm.

Instead of online voting, it should be done via a thing in-game, and only for those games linked to an Nintendo account for X amount of time (say, a month).  And not announce this until a week beforehand, so people don't try to make a bunch of alts.  Would SERIOUSLY cut down on the number of votes, but it'll cut down on the VG salt.

I know you're trying to crack a joke, but this isn't the place or time.

---

I like the analysis behind the topic but I don't like the premise behind it.  I suspect that Chrom will get in, but it will most likely be after Robin (a la Smash).

Assuming the game doesn't shut down first.

Personally I don’t see robin winning first. Maybe female robin from her side but Chrom has been above male every single CYL and most official polls reflect Chrom as the most popular with him only sometimes losing to Lucina. Female may win first but female side is way, way, harder to predict so for the purpose of this one I was discounting them. 

1 hour ago, Othin said:

No, votes don't get passed around that cleanly. And Byleth M will never win because Byleth F will beat him to it.

Female side is way more volatile and difficult to predict but with Claude and Dimitri gone, male Byleth has no real competition aside from Marth. If female gets in 5 and male doesn’t it will be exciting to see if one avatar getting in removed the other sex. I think it would be interesting if it did; but the recurring heroes comic treats male and female as separate characters so I don’t think they will. 

[Othin]

46 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Are we even certain that one avatar gender winning will take both out of the pool though? Fans of male avatars vs. female avatar seem to be ... uh, pretty exclusive in a not-insignificant number of cases. I imagine that, hypothetically, if male Robin wins CYL and female Robin gets knocked out of the pool, her fans will rage.

I suppose there's no guarantee, but it's my guess. One avatar gender winning could also result in less enthusiasm for the other on future polls - and more enthusiasm for their opponents. Bear in mind that we've already had Masked Marth, FE6 Eliwood/Hector, and the Academy Arc versions of the 3H winners knocked out... although not Thrasir, which could be a counterpoint.

9 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

Female side is way more volatile and difficult to predict but with Claude and Dimitri gone, male Byleth has no real competition aside from Marth. If female gets in 5 and male doesn’t it will be exciting to see if one avatar getting in removed the other sex. I think it would be interesting if it did; but the recurring heroes comic treats male and female as separate characters so I don’t think they will. 

Male Byleth has plenty of competition.

Male runner-ups on CYL4:

• 3. Marth (44,107)
• 4. Chrom (15,595)
• 5. Seliph (15,593)
• 6. Felix (12,465)
• 7. Byleth M (10,410)
• 8. Robin M (9,898)

[Hilda]

46 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Hmmm.

Instead of online voting, it should be done via a thing in-game, and only for those games linked to an Nintendo account for X amount of time (say, a month).  And not announce this until a week beforehand, so people don't try to make a bunch of alts.  Would SERIOUSLY cut down on the number of votes, but it'll cut down on the VG salt.

well not exactly a Voting Gauntlet with mulitpliers or so. No multipliers, just normal votes, but ingame. After Week 1 you half the amount of contestants. People that picked a contestant that won cant switch their contestant/char, while players that had picked a contestant that lost, can choose a new favourite contestant char (this is similar to voting gauntlet).
Repeat until there is only 8 contestant left on each side (M and F) and do it one more time ----> you get a Top 8 result of characters.

This way people not playing heroes cant influence it reducing the salt.
People whom favourite character lost can switch to their 2. favourite character and so on
Chars with split votes/appearance can possibly unite their votes if people switch to from one to another (because one of them lost), meaning it combines the votes naturally by pick.
Characters that have a CYL alt allready are of course not eligable for this voting.
People can pick a favourite F and a favourite M character.
In order to be eligable to vote you need your FEHeroes account linked to your nintendo account.

I think this would make a very fair voting  and give people actually the possibility to vote for a character they want/like. Maybe not theri most favourite but a character that is liked by alot would win.

[eclipse]

Just now, Hilda said:

well not exactly a Voting Gauntlet with mulitpliers or so. No multipliers, just normal votes, but ingame. After Week 1 you half the amount of contestants. People that picked a contestant that won cant switch their contestant/char, while players that had picked a contestant that lost, can choose a new favourite contestant char (this is similar to voting gauntlet).
Repeat until there is only 8 contestant left on each side (M and F) and do it one more time ----> you get a Top 8 result of characters.

This way people not playing heroes cant influence it reducing the salt.
People whom favourite character lost can switch to their 2. favourite character and so on
Chars with split votes/appearance can possibly unite their votes if people switch to from one to another (because one of them lost), meaning it combines the votes naturally by pick.
Characters that have a CYL alt allready are of course not eligable for this voting.
People can pick a favourite F and a favourite M character.
In order to be eligable to vote you need your FEHeroes account linked to your nintendo account.

I think this would make a very fair voting  and give people actually the possibility to vote for a character they want/like. Maybe not theri most favourite but a character that is liked by alot would win.

Alt creation becomes an issue here.  It's more cumbersome than voting with multiple devices, but if someone HAS that many devices. . .

[IEatLasers]

Make Byleth is the last male lead for 3H and Dimitri alone has almost 70,000 more voters coming by. 
 

Chrom is no competition, as he’s been stable with Roughly the Same amount of Votes since CYL1. He is high ranking but never gaining any favor or moving up. 
 

robin has never surpassed Chrom and until Chrom is gone, male robin very likely won’t as Chrom has proven the most popular awakening male and sometimes character (between Chrom and Lucina depending on the poll) 

 

Felix is an interesting case. He is high ranking but like all other high ranking non lords being added to the game is going to be enough to pull him down vastly. 
 

Seliph or Sigurd will get in 5 most likely. You’re right they are competition. The other will get all of the firsts votes and get in 6. That’s why I say 5/6 give is Marth, Byleth, Seliph, and Sigurd.  
 

with 70,000 more votes floating around, 4th place means nothing. 100th, 98th, 40th and etc place could come up and all best Chrom (random numbers not based around the characters) 

 

someone brought up a good point. if awakening ever gets a remasters and CYL is going on, that’s when Chrom does have a chance. 
 

 

what id love to do... is post this same poll and explanation on a Japanese forum. But I don’t know Japanese or anything like that. But japan is where Chrom still wins polls, was added to warriors because they felt him needed, was added to smash due to popularity etc. in Japan they may have a different view and be harder to convince where here most of us already agree 

Edited April 25, 2020 by IEatLasers

[Othin]

1 minute ago, IEatLasers said:

Make Byleth is the last male lead for 3H and Dimitri alone has almost 70,000 more voters coming by. 
 

Chrom is no competition, as he’s been stable with Roughly the Same amount of Votes since CYL1. He is high ranking but never gaining any favor or moving up. 
 

robin has never surpassed Chrom and until Chrom is gone, male robin very likely won’t as Chrom has proven the most popular awakening male and sometimes character (between Chrom and Lucina depending on the poll) 

 

Felix is an interesting case. He is high ranking but like all other high ranking non lords being added to the game is going to be enough to pull him down vastly. 
 

Seliph or Sigurd will get in 5 most likely. You’re right they are competition. The other will get all of the firsts votes and get in 6. That’s why I say 5/6 give is Marth, Byleth, Seliph, and Sigurd.  
 

with 70,000 more votes floating around, 4th place means nothing. 100th, 98th, 40th and etc place could come up and all best Chrom (random numbers not based around the characters) 

 

someone brought up a good point. if awakening ever gets a remasters and CYL is going on, that’s when Chrom does have a chance. 

Again, you can't assume votes automatically transfer like that.

In CYL2, Ephraim got 31k votes and Eirika got 27k. In CYL3, Eirika didn't pick up another 31k votes and crush her competition - her score actually dropped to 22k.

[IEatLasers]

27 minutes ago, Othin said:

Again, you can't assume votes automatically transfer like that.

In CYL2, Ephraim got 31k votes and Eirika got 27k. In CYL3, Eirika didn't pick up another 31k votes and crush her competition - her score actually dropped to 22k.

We have seen it happen the other way though. 
hecotr to Eliwood, Celica to Alm. We very much can assume. Will happen. The one we didn’t see? From male side to female. That’s a hard one to predict because female side is crazy and hard to track. 

[Othin]

3 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

We have seen it happen the other way though. 
hecotr to Eliwood, Celica to Alm. We very much can assume. Will happen. The one we didn’t see? From male side to female. That’s a hard one to predict because female side is crazy and hard to track. 

Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesn't. Those examples don't mean it's guaranteed with those gender distributions and impossible for the rest, we're working off a sample size too small to give substantial indication of that kind of pattern.

[eclipse]

23 minutes ago, IEatLasers said:

We have seen it happen the other way though. 
hecotr to Eliwood, Celica to Alm. We very much can assume. Will happen. The one we didn’t see? From male side to female. That’s a hard one to predict because female side is crazy and hard to track. 

I think a better example is Lyn to Hector to Eliwood.  Though there's two outliers:

1. Ephraim made it before Eirika.
2. Ike was voted well before Micaiah.

For those times when the pattern held:

1. FE7 had Lyn, Hector, and Eliwood, in that order.
2. Echoes had Celica before Alm.
3. Camilla's the first Fates representative.
4. Lucina's the first Awakening representative.
5. Veronica is the first Heroes representative.

But whether the Celica voters went to Alm is another matter entirely.  I doubt that we'll ever get a straight answer for that, though.

[IEatLasers]

53 minutes ago, Othin said:

Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesn't. Those examples don't mean it's guaranteed with those gender distributions and impossible for the rest, we're working off a sample size too small to give substantial indication of that kind of pattern.

Knowing what we know I think it’s beyond reasonable to say Seliph or Sigurd votes are moving to the other. 

29 minutes ago, eclipse said:

I think a better example is Lyn to Hector to Eliwood.  Though there's two outliers:

1. Ephraim made it before Eirika.
2. Ike was voted well before Micaiah.

For those times when the pattern held:

1. FE7 had Lyn, Hector, and Eliwood, in that order.
2. Echoes had Celica before Alm.
3. Camilla's the first Fates representative.
4. Lucina's the first Awakening representative.
5. Veronica is the first Heroes representative.

But whether the Celica voters went to Alm is another matter entirely.  I doubt that we'll ever get a straight answer for that, though.

Ike and Micaiah is a very unique circumstance because not all Ike fans are Tellius fans. Many come from smash bros, and jumped ship when he left the polls. 

Otherwise Soren would have been surefure. He still is growing and could be in eventually but idk 

 

CYL5 will be our first one without major 3Houses due to being brand new, and without the Elibe bias the heroes crowd seems to have. It’s hard to predict what it means for our votes and how things are going. Will elibe move to Jugdral? Will we now get Seliph, Sigurd, and do in getting FE4, then 5, year by year until the game ends? 
it’s hard to predict.
Marth will likely win now by a wide margin, j could see some Dimitri voters going for Chrom as they’re very similar characters but Dimitri had better writing and Chrom is outdated so overall I do think Chrom is hopeless, but I think he may gain some fans overall. If Female robin wins she may give votes to Male robin and then Chrom, but even then idk because a huge part of female robins support is from a YouTuber who doesn’t care about Chrom so if his fans get his character in, they will stop voting-not support Chrom 

[eclipse]

Just now, IEatLasers said:

CYL5 will be our first one without major 3Houses due to being brand new, and without the Elibe bias the heroes crowd seems to have. It’s hard to predict what it means for our votes and how things are going. Will elibe move to Jugdral? Will we now get Seliph, Sigurd, and do in getting FE4, then 5, year by year until the game ends? 

it’s hard to predict.
Marth will likely win now by a wide margin, j could see some Dimitri voters going for Chrom as they’re very similar characters but Dimitri had better writing and Chrom is outdated so overall I do think Chrom is hopeless, but I think he may gain some fans overall. If Female robin wins she may give votes to Male robin and then Chrom, but even then idk because a huge part of female robins support is from a YouTuber who doesn’t care about Chrom so if his fans get his character in, they will stop voting-not support Chrom 

I think it's going to be close, since the War Arc characters are separate.  My guess is Marth/Student Dimitri for men, and Student Edeglard/someone else for female (maybe Eirika gets in here, if one of the evil fairies don't).  Chrom has a more stuffed field, so if he does get in, I think it's going to be after female Robin. . .and maybe male Robin, but I'm not sure how those votes will go.

[IEatLasers]

Can students get in? When voting it says votes for student and war arc are tallied together so I Assumed they’d be removed. 
 

I am very confident that if Chrom gets in,  it’ll be before male robin. Male robin has yet to beat Chrom in official popularity polls or CYL, and Chrom is the main character which always gives him status. If female gets in, I think votes will flock to Chrom, then back to Robin, if they flock at all. 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

12 hours ago, IEatLasers said:

With Seliph being so high, his fans from team Sigurd will realize they can work together. Chrom has no hope of beating Seliph no because other Fan bases  can realize to work together but Chrom and robin have been and always will split votes. 

You can't really assume Sigurd and Seliph fans will unite. Marth fans didn't unite enough to win CYL 3, and he's just a single character; it's not a good assumption to make about fans realizing they can work together in CYL, because it never happens.

 

12 hours ago, IEatLasers said:

and as I’ve been saying, Chrom has almost always been top 5...but specifically 4. He isn’t rising because he isn’t gaining more votes. 

The characters above Chrom in all of the CYLs were:
CYL 1: Ike, Roy, Hector
CYL 2: Hector (again), Ephraim, Marth, Alm, and Reinhardt
CYL 3: Alm (again), Eliwood, Marth (again)
CYL 4: Dimitri, Claude, Marth (again)
Of all of those characters, the only two left who have ever ranked above Chrom are Marth and Reinhardt. And as we can see, Reinhardt dropped after CYL 2; he was really only up so high as a meme, and the meme has lost a little bit of his staying power. Which means that the only character who has ever ranked above Chrom that is still eligible for CYL is Marth. Other than Marth, Chrom has no real competition; Seliph is a very big "maybe" and could very well follow the Reinhardt pattern of dropping off a little.

12 hours ago, IEatLasers said:

after Dimitri won, there are 70,000 more votes shuffling around. That’s enough to beat Chrom 6 times. Chrom being in 4th doesn’t matter because the people in 1st will never, ever, switch and vote Chrom. 

Again, you really can't assume that. For all you know, 40,000 of those votes could go to Chrom in CYL 5. Votes don't shuffle around as cleanly as you're thinking here.

[IEatLasers]

7 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

You can't really assume Sigurd and Seliph fans will unite. Marth fans didn't unite enough to win CYL 3, and he's just a single character; it's not a good assumption to make about fans realizing they can work together in CYL, because it never happens.

 

The characters above Chrom in all of the CYLs were:
CYL 1: Ike, Roy, Hector
CYL 2: Hector (again), Ephraim, Marth, Alm, and Reinhardt
CYL 3: Alm (again), Eliwood, Marth (again)
CYL 4: Dimitri, Claude, Marth (again)
Of all of those characters, the only two left who have ever ranked above Chrom are Marth and Reinhardt. And as we can see, Reinhardt dropped after CYL 2; he was really only up so high as a meme, and the meme has lost a little bit of his staying power. Which means that the only character who has ever ranked above Chrom that is still eligible for CYL is Marth. Other than Marth, Chrom has no real competition; Seliph is a very big "maybe" and could very well follow the Reinhardt pattern of dropping off a little.

Again, you really can't assume that. For all you know, 40,000 of those votes could go to Chrom in CYL 5. Votes don't shuffle around as cleanly as you're thinking here.

I disagree about your point on Sigurd and Seliph. 
 

Without any unity, Seliph got 5th and by Only 2 votes. Chrom is getting older without being legacy, and Seliph is a legacy character who never gets stale (to his fans) and new fans drawn to 3H wil read that it was inspired by FE4 (not awakening) boosting Sigurd and Seliph a chances more. 
 

im not saying they’ll unite this year. This year, they’re each others biggest threats and the main reason I think Byleth could sneak in over them. (because again, Claude and Dimitri are gone for 3H bias) 

 

we also don’t yet know what will happen with 3H votes because as if now we’re getting student costumes. People want war arc.  So next CYL may still be 3H dominante, pushing another year back on Chrom’s shot. 
 

once Seliph or Sigurd get in, people will want father and son United. Like they did when they rallied for Eliwood. 
 

what another variable may be, Camilla being in may lead to other issues with rallying. Will they want Corrin in as Camilla was in first? It Xander as her big brother? I think no but it’s worth thinking about. Either way, the tide isn’t turning in Chrom’s favor and we don’t know the game will last more than a couple more years. 
 

you gave me good stuff to think about, but at the end of the day it’s hard to see Chrom winning in the next 3 years 

[SockPuppet]

I can see Chrom winning if him not winning becomes a sympathy win a la smash 

[Seazas]

9 hours ago, eclipse said:

Yeah.  Like keeping your mouth shut.

That's not a choice on an online poll, so... nah. I stated my piece on an opinionated based forum without replying to anyone at first. I'm not insulting any user or actively harassing someone, am I? Talking negatively about Chrom won't kill you and it shouldn't bother you at all since it's clearly subjective.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Seazas

[IEatLasers]

8 minutes ago, SockPuppet said:

I can see Chrom winning if him not winning becomes a sympathy win a la smash 

Smash was due to popularity in Japan, which he still has according to online polls though? But that won’t carry him in CYL, but to say he was pitied into smash is kind of silly 

[Seazas]

Just now, IEatLasers said:

Smash was due to popularity in Japan, which he still has according to online polls though? But that won’t carry him in CYL, but to say he was pitied into smash is kind of silly 

He actually had a huge meme circlejerk by Smash fans thanks to Sakurai starting up a lot of Chrom memes and many pitied him, but many also liked him thanks to those memes.

[IEatLasers]

28 minutes ago, Seazas said:

He actually had a huge meme circlejerk by Smash fans thanks to Sakurai starting up a lot of Chrom memes and many pitied him, but many also liked him thanks to those memes.

Sakurai himself said he was added due to Japanese popularity. And again, famitsu, Nintendo dream, and other official polls before and after smash surprise no, there’s no evidence that pity or memes helped him. 

[Seazas]

1 hour ago, IEatLasers said:

Sakurai himself said he was added due to Japanese popularity. And again, famitsu, Nintendo dream, and other official polls before and after smash surprise no, there’s no evidence that pity or memes helped him. 

I guess you didn't follow Smash community and ballot discussion? Because Chrom was definitely a major meme at the time and had people rooting for him to get his chance. The West Smash community was definitely a factor, even if he had a majority of Japanese support. Which could also involve a lot of Jpn Smash fans liking Chrom and voting for him in the ballot, you can't say for sure.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Seazas