Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[ciphertul]

I give Rhea a 8/10 chance and 10/10 for want.

[vanguard333]

I think it is very likely to see Rhea as a playable character. Gameplay-wise, she comes with a unique class in human form, and her Immaculate One form would allow for something like the Divine Beast sections in Age of Calamity. Even if she ends up as an enemy in the story mode, she could very easily end up as a bonus character in the postgame or as DLC.

I'd say 9/10.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

On 4/14/2022 at 7:38 AM, Fabulously Olivier said:

I've saved the biggest for last. Today we're rating Rhea.

Is Rhea the last of the last? I have a few other character ratings in mind, but I'm not sure what to do with them.

[Fabulously Olivier]

41 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Is Rhea the last of the last? I have a few other character ratings in mind, but I'm not sure what to do with them.

We may do a big roundup of future characters that appear in trailers, like Bergliez. I'm also extendeding Rhea for a bit since she hasn't attracted the discussion she warrants.

 

But today's a special day to end the daily ratings on. It marks the exact halfpoint from announcement to release. Happy hypings, y'all!

[Seazas]

Rhea has no supports, she deserves to be playable.

[ThePrimeOne]

9/10 for sure. If there was any opportunity to have a playable Rhea, now's the time, cos she deserved better than what she got in Three Houses. Recreating a rematch with Nemesis in VW would've been so cool.

Edited April 16, 2022 by ThePrimeOne

[Fabulously Olivier]

Rhea comes in at 8.63. Hope you had fun, and I hope this roster goes well beyond our expectations.

 

And hopefully someday, we'll get a Fire Emblem Warriors: Ultimate for a new and infinitely more fun rate their chances.

[Dark Holy Elf]

@Fabulously Olivier Thanks for running this!

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Yeah, this was a really fun daily distraction!

[Fire Emblem Fan]

As we can see here: https://serenesforest.net/2022/04/21/three-hopes-new-tidbits-from-famitsu-5th-may-issue/

Anna is now 100% confirmed to be in the game in some form. Her portrait is clearly showcased in one of the screenshots. Now, is she playable? I dunno, but it's likely.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Do we want to count Anna and Bernadetta as confirmed given sprites? Maybe Ferdinand as well?

[ciphertul]

I'm all for Anna, but Bernie is... an odd duck still. I fully believe that it is her however who know for sure.

[Florete]

I don't think anyone should be considered confirmed unless it's clear they'll be playable. Only NPC Anna is confirmed so far and we can't be sure about the others.

Speaking of, why do you list Flayn confirmed but not Jeralt? They've both been shown in the same capacity. I don't think a pre-rendered cutscene appearance should confirm anyone.

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 hour ago, Florete said:

I don't think anyone should be considered confirmed unless it's clear they'll be playable. Only NPC Anna is confirmed so far and we can't be sure about the others.

Speaking of, why do you list Flayn confirmed but not Jeralt? They've both been shown in the same capacity. I don't think a pre-rendered cutscene appearance should confirm anyone.

I think the burden of proof for an NPC is higher than the burden of proof for an existing PC. That said, I think a lower tier of 'confirmation' is in order for characters shown ingame or in trailers in some fashion whose playability hasn't been showcased yet. Which is to say everyone but the lords, retainers, Shez, and... Monica?

Edited April 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[tipperthescales]

3 hours ago, Florete said:

I don't think anyone should be considered confirmed unless it's clear they'll be playable. Only NPC Anna is confirmed so far and we can't be sure about the others.

Speaking of, why do you list Flayn confirmed but not Jeralt? They've both been shown in the same capacity. I don't think a pre-rendered cutscene appearance should confirm anyone.

 

1 hour ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I think the burden of proof for an NPC is higher than the burden of proof for an existing PC. That said, I think a lower tier of 'confirmation' is in order for characters shown ingame or in trailers in some fashion whose playability hasn't been showcased yet. Which is to say everyone but the lords, retainers, Shez, and... Monica?

On this note, can we say Byleth is actually Confirmed given that we've only seen them in what appear to be cutscenes?

I'd probably put Monica in a tier between Bernie and Edelgard since we don't see her in action outside of a cutscene, though everything else we do see leans towards her being playable.

[Fabulously Olivier]

7 hours ago, tipperthescales said:

 

On this note, can we say Byleth is actually Confirmed given that we've only seen them in what appear to be cutscenes?

I'd probably put Monica in a tier between Bernie and Edelgard since we don't see her in action outside of a cutscene, though everything else we do see leans towards her being playable.

There is no conceivable universe in which they let us customize Byleth, only for them to not be eventually playable. They woulf be insane to not.

[Dark Holy Elf]

I would agree that Byleth is technically not confirmed. In fact, the most recent trailer definitely wants to make us at least consider the idea that they're a pure antagonist.

That said, they are 10/10 likely. I don't believe Intsys/KT's misdirection for a second. Byleth is one of the most popular characters in the game, very important, got into Smash, yadda yadda yadda. Even if they're framed as an antagonist, you know they're gonna join up as a badass recruit to take down the "true enemy". And even if somehow Byleth is the true enemy (which already seems nearly impossible to me), they'll 100% be a playable bonus character the way Ganondorf was. Doing otherwise is just leaving money on the table.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

10 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

There is no conceivable universe in which they let us customize Byleth, only for them to not be eventually playable. They woulf be insane to not.

shrug FE7 let us customize an Avatar, and they weren't exactly playable.

But yeah, Teach is definitely gonna be playable in some capacity. There's no way they don't let the player use the Sword of the Creator in a "Fodlan Warriors" game. They might not be available right at the start, but they're almost certainly not gonna be the "big bad", either. 10 out of 10 odds.

[Vexal]

On 4/23/2022 at 12:46 PM, Fabulously Olivier said:

Do we want to count Anna and Bernadetta as confirmed given sprites? Maybe Ferdinand as well?

I think it's safe to assume anyone with a blue sprite specifically is playable, anyone that isn't playable could just be a green unit again like with FEW's Darios

Edited April 24, 2022 by Vexal

[Florete]

2 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

shrug FE7 let us customize an Avatar, and they weren't exactly playable.

Those were very different times...but maybe I didn't need to tell you that.

Are we actually rating Byleth? Because even I would agree on effectively 100% odds. Even if you were Dr. Strange you probably couldn't find a version of this roster without our dear Professor.

[Seazas]

Inb4 Koei purposefully holds the Ashen Demon back for DLC sales.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Sure. Why not. It seemed self-evident with the first trailer that Byleth was your character, so the Mysterious Mercenary thing did change things slightly.

 

Here's a lump of ratings to do, over the next week. Let me know if I'm missing anyone significant:

 

Byleth

10/10 likelihood, 10/10 want

 

Cleobulus

An unused member of TWSITD. If they're expanding on the story, they may add him.

1/10 likelihood as playable

(3/10 likelihood, 6/10 want as an NPC)

 

Hegemon Husk

Could make for a fun secret unlockable boss. 

1/10 likelihood, unless the story doesn't acknowledge them at all or it's someone else.

7/10 want, mainly to pound its face in for ruining FEH.

 

Bergliez

2/10 likelihood, 2/10 want

 

Margrave Gautier

They seem to be expanding on families. So maybe.

1/10, 2/10

 

Count Galatea

Same. 1/10, 2/10.

 

Count Gloucester

Same. 1/10, 2/10

 

Angery Claude Bro

1.5/10 likelihood, 1/10 want

 

Tomas

If Monica isn't Kronya, maybe Tomas isn't Solon.

0.5/10 chance, 1/10 want

 

Kostas

Because Brigand Boss memes.

0/10 chance, 0.5/10 want

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Byleth is an easy 10/10. They're going to be playable in the game, period. Personal want is a 10/10 purely because it'd be weird if they weren't there, I'm actually pretty indifferent to them as a character.

As for everyone else on that list...I dunno, 1/10? I guess? Meh. And yeah, that rating of 1/10 goes for EVERYONE else on that list. The only one I would consider raising the score on is Hegemon Husk.

[vanguard333]

Byleth is definitely 10/10. Even if they go the "purely an antagonist" route for the main story campaign to prop up their OC do-not-steal new protagonist, and I honestly think that's possible given all the attention they gave to Terrako in Age of Calamity, they would definitely make Byleth a bonus postgame character in that case.

Byleth is too well-suited to Warriors to leave out, thanks to his massive whip-sword among other things. Then again, I said that Ike is too suited to Warriors to leave out, and look what happened there...

 

Everyone else is probably a 1/10.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

I'm gonna give Count Bergliez, Claude's Relative, and Kostas each a 2 out of 10. Unlikely, but not impossible. 

As for the rest: Cleobolus, Hegemon Husk, Margrave Gautier, Count Galatea, Count Gloucester, and Tomas, they each get a 1 out of 10 for "just technically not impossible".

Thanks for doing these dumb ones, too.