Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Judith is a pretty significant NPC on the Golden Deer route, but she's stymied by lack of playability in the base game. Of course, if the game winds up being more "Lord-centric", she could elevate to playable status. Likewise, if KT wants to address a common criticism of GD, then playable Judith, here we come. Still, we don't know her proficiencies or combat arts, and she doesn't have a signature weapon. I think a score of 3 out of 10 is appropriate. 

[Florete]

6 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

It's an interesting idea worth considering. Personally, I think a day in which we can point and laugh has value.

You'd still get that. It would just be only one day total, instead of one for every nobody that most people don't even remember the name of. And I agree that Judith doesn't count among that.

Anyway, 75% for Judith. Presence in the trailer shows that she's clearly already been noticed by the devs, and she's one of those NPCs who was highly-desired as a playable unit to begin with. This is a good chance to do so.

[drattakbowser]

Eum... Sorry for the late but having watching the YouTubers "Phenixmaster1" and have confirmed Lorenz can be in Three Hopes. 

https://youtu.be/hYdK9E-szF8

[Fabulously Olivier]

Judith gets a 5.5. 

 

Now for the rest of the Adrestian Crew:

 

Randolph

4/10 chance, 7/10 want. Rated higher based on trailer appearance.

 

Ladislava

3/10 chance, 5/10 want.

 

Metodey

Lol, no. 0/10, 0/10.

 

Baron Ochs

Nice hat, but 0/10, 3/10.

[Use the Falchion]

Randolph - 7/10 chance (like Judith, he's already confirmed to be in the game), 4/10 want

Ladislava - 3/10 chance, 6/10 want

 

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Randolph is in the trailer? Huh, didn't know that. Anyway, I still consider Caspar among the least likely students. Putting in Randolph without his cousin Caspar would be weird, while putting in both would be redundant. Let's say a 2 out of 10.

Ladislava could be around, I guess. There are already a few prospective wyvern riders, though. I'm a fan of her design and voicework, at least. Another 2 out of 10.

Metodey does get an appearance in Cindered Shadows, making his allegiance (Empire? Agarthans? Other?) all the more confusing. He feels like the kind of character designed to be a villain. 1 out of 10.

Baron Ochs doesn't even get a custom portrait, just using the default Trickster face (which nobody else uses, but whatever). They couldn't even be bothered to give him the same red hair as his daughter. He gets my lowest rating, a 1 out of 10.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Randolph is in the trailer so we know he's in the game in some capacity. 5/10

Ladislava 2/10

Metodey and Baron Ochs...who? 0.1/10

[Fabulously Olivier]

16 hours ago, drattakbowser said:

Eum... Sorry for the late but having watching the YouTubers "Phenixmaster1" and have confirmed Lorenz can be in Three Hopes. 

https://youtu.be/hYdK9E-szF8

I've watched it and rewatched it. I saw no proof of Lorenz. All I remember is jokes that the new purple haired guy could be Lorenz (now that's a glow-up!)

[Etrurian emperor]

Judith: 6/10. We already know she's in the game in some capacity
Want: 1/0: I think she's pointless. Judith's only around to give you an Alliance NPC's that's not Holst or Gloucester, two vastly more interesting options than Judith who's just some lady without much going for her. Her only purpose is blocking characters who'd be better than her. 

 

[vanguard333]

I honestly don't see any of the Adrestian NPCs as very likely, partly because they're NPCs, but also because I don't remember them doing much. Granted, so far I've only played Crimson Flower and Verdant Wind, but all I remember about Randolph is him dying offscreen in the former and Ladislava mentioning his offscreen death just before she herself dies.

Randolph and Ladislava each get a 3/10 from me.

Metodey gets a 1/10 from me simply because I'm not going to give a 0/10 for anyone.

I have no idea who Baron Ochs is; I'm guessing he's DLC. I'll give him a 1/10 as well.

[ThePrimeOne]

For Baron von Ochs, I kinda want to see him return because it's clear his daughter (Monica) is going to be more involved with the story somehow, so I'd like for him to be at least around. Him returning with a new design would also be nice but I somehow doubt that will happen, so it's a 4/10 for me.

Randolph, Ladislava, and Judith, in my mind, have a slightly more decent chance, but no more than a 5/10.

Metodey is a clean 1. 

[Florete]

Randolph gets 60%, Ladislava gets 55%. Similar logic to Judith, though they're kinda less important/popular than her so lower rating. I also think we're most likely getting both or neither, which lowers their chances a bit further, but I give Randolph slightly higher chance since he's actually appeared already.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Randolph gets 4.57.

Ladislava gets 3.36.

Metodey gets a 0.62.

Von Ochs gets a 0.53. Hilariously still better than Acheron.

 

We covered some NPCs so let's do a PC. Today we're rating Cyril.

 

Who I'm giving a 4/10 chance, 3/10 want. He's boring but inoffensive among the students, and that reflects in his low popularity. But you could also argue that he has retainer status (to Rhea).

[Use the Falchion]

Cyril is a 5/10 chance with a 7/10 want. I like him and wish that there were more defining qualities to him other than his Almyran status and his devotion to Rhea, but alas. Maybe if he's in this game, they can give him a few more things. Still, he's lower on the Chuch list. I don't think he's as low as Alois or Hanneman, but he's certanly not as high as Flayn (highly likely to be in the game), Seteth (all but confirmed if the Church has a number of people IMO), Catherine (also super likely), or Shamir (less likely than Catherine, but more popular I think)

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Cyril is woefully unpopular and honestly seems like one of those "most likely only if everyone is in" kind of character. Less likely than Seteth, Flayn, Catherine, Shamir, and Alois. There's just not much going for him aside from being Rhea's errand boy...which doesn't really add much or do much. 3/10

Personal want is maybe a 4/10

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Oh Cyril, whatever are we gonna do with you? He has high availability (on two routes), great combat arts, strong growths, and a plethora of proficiencies. He's also the only openly Almyran character, and the youngest among the playablr cast. So, what's the catch? He joins super-weak, without much unique that he can do. And if you picked the Black Eagles, he'll join sometime between "late" and "never". He has no Crest, no signature weapon, and very little story role. I don't see him as any higher than a 3 out of 10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

3 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Oh Cyril, whatever are we gonna do with you? He has high availability (on two routes), great combat arts, strong growths, and a plethora of proficiencies. He's also the only openly Almyran character, and the youngest among the playablr cast. So, what's the catch? He joins super-weak, without much unique that he can do. And if you picked the Black Eagles, he'll join sometime between "late" and "never". He has no Crest, no signature weapon, and very little story role. I don't see him as any higher than a 3 out of 10.

Isn't Cyril's lack of popularity in part due to NOT having great growths? His passive makes him appear deceptively strong as a growth unit, but it actually brings him from abysmal growths to normal ones. Meaning that he effectively lacks a personal skill.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

20 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Isn't Cyril's lack of popularity in part due to NOT having great growths? His passive makes him appear deceptively strong as a growth unit, but it actually brings him from abysmal growths to normal ones. Meaning that he effectively lacks a personal skill.

Either Cyril has very good growths and functionally no personal skill, or really terrible growths and an excellent personal skill. I tend to view him as the former. With Aptitude factored in, Cyril has the highest growth rate total in the game, even ahead of Teach and the Lords. Without it, he has by far the worst growth rate total.

Anyway, "Aptitude as a personal skill" really bugs me, when they could've just given him good growths to begin with. Then maybe a personal skill like "Underdog", helping his Hit and Avoid against higher-level enemies. Or else something themed around Almyra, or Lady Rhea.

[vanguard333]

Cyril is unpopular, though he's unpopular enough that they might include him in an attempt to redeem him. He has plenty of options for class, but a lot of them have strong competition, especially his default class (wyvern rider).

Overall, I'd say 5/10

[Fabulously Olivier]

16 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Cyril is unpopular, though he's unpopular enough that they might include him in an attempt to redeem him. He has plenty of options for class, but a lot of them have strong competition, especially his default class (wyvern rider).

Overall, I'd say 5/10

Wyvern rider doesn't actually have as much canon competition as one thinks it does. It just has that perception because it's such a popular, overpowered class. It has 2.5 other canon characters (Seteth, Ladislava, and half of Petra). No one else has their canon outfit in that class that I'm aware of. And Claude has a unique variant of Wyvern Rider.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

3 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Wyvern rider doesn't actually have as much canon competition as one thinks it does. It just has that perception because it's such a popular, overpowered class. It has 2.5 canon characters (Seteth, Judith, and half of Petra). No one else has their canon outfit in that class that I'm aware of. And Claude has a unique variant of Wyvern Rider.

Judith? Do you know something I don’t here?

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

5 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Wyvern rider doesn't actually have as much canon competition as one thinks it does. It just has that perception because it's such a popular, overpowered class. It has 2.5 canon characters (Seteth, Judith, and half of Petra). No one else has their canon outfit in that class that I'm aware of. And Claude has a unique variant of Wyvern Rider.

Cyril is only recruitable as a Commoner, but he only shows up as an enemy on CF, as a Wyvern Lord. Hence why it should be regarded as his "canon class", regardless of whether his outfit in it is unique or generic.

[Fabulously Olivier]

4 minutes ago, ciphertul said:

Judith? Do you know something I don’t here?

I mean Ladislava. My bad.

[Etrurian emperor]

I give Cyril a Lady Rhea/10 

[Fabulously Olivier]

33 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Cyril is only recruitable as a Commoner, but he only shows up as an enemy on CF, as a Wyvern Lord. Hence why it should be regarded as his "canon class", regardless of whether his outfit in it is unique or generic.

I meant other canon wyvern lords. His competition.

 

2 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I give Cyril a Lady Rhea/10 

How am I even supposed to score that?