Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[vanguard333]

Sylvain is the obvious choice for paladin, and he's part of the "Dimitri's childhood friends" group. I don't think he's that plot-relevant, as outside of being friends with Dimitri, his relevance is thanks to his brother: a minor antagonist whose main purpose is to show why the Crestless can't use hero's relics in the story of the game (and hint at their sinister origins as well).

Overall, I'd say 9/10.

[Florete]

Looks like I'm back to scoring below the curve on this one. Sylvain has a few issues imo; if the roster of the game is on the smaller end and each house only gets half of its cast in, I could easily see BL being Dimitri, Dedue, Felix, and Ingrid. If gender parity is important to them, Sylvain already has to come after Dimitri and Felix, and then he has to compete with Dedue's strong tie to Dimitri, meaning he might need to be the 4th BL male to make it in. He's popular, but not quite too popular not to make it.

65%

[ThePrimeOne]

8/10 for Sylvain, just like with Ingrid. Good chances in general due to both of their ties to Dimitri.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Sylvain gets 8.15.

 

Day 32 - Fleche

 

I think Fleche has above-average odds by NPC standards. I'll go 3/10 likelihood, 3/10 want.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[vanguard333]

The fact that my first thought when I saw the name Fletch was "Who?" despite Crimson Flower having been my first playthrough of Three Houses probably says a lot. Then again, I'm not very good at remembering names.

Fleche has an okay chance I guess, at least for an NPC. I think I'll go with 3/10 as well.

[Use the Falchion]

I'll go 5/10 with a caveat. Randolph is in the game in some capacity, so Fleche isn't far behind. If former NPCs like Randolph, Judith, Rodrigue, and Nader are playable, then there's a good chance Fleche is playable too IMO. That chance is a 50/50 to me, which is why I'm giving her a 5/10. Personal want is...probably a 3/10. There's just not enough about the character to really know her. She's minor character on Crimson Flower and a plot point on Azure Moon. This could be the chance to flesh her out more, but we'll see. 

[Dark Holy Elf]

53 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

The fact that my first thought when I saw the name Fletch was "Who?" despite Crimson Flower having been my first playthrough of Three Houses probably says a lot.

Fleche is actually notable on one route of Three Houses, but it's not Crimson Flower. I think it's perfectly reasonable to forget her CF appearance.

1/10 for chances, 3/10 for want. Apparently Randolph has been spotted in the trailer which I guess might revise this upwards slightly, but I'll assume both are not playable until I hear otherwise.

[vanguard333]

1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Fleche is actually notable on one route of Three Houses, but it's not Crimson Flower. I think it's perfectly reasonable to forget her CF appearance.

1/10 for chances, 3/10 for want. Apparently Randolph has been spotted in the trailer which I guess might revise this upwards slightly, but I'll assume both are not playable until I hear otherwise.

Let me guess, it's the one route I have yet to finish that has a house leader in it: Azure Moon. I actually don't have to guess; when I looked up the name "Fleche", I found out that she has a more notable role in Azure Moon.

[Florete]

There are plenty of NPCs I can easily imagine becoming playable. Fleche is not one of them. She just doesn't have much of anything going in her favor beyond...existing. And being a girl, I guess.

15%

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Fleche...I mean...eh? I didn't immediately remember who she was. But, since her brother is confirmed to be in the game in some capacity, she has a decent enough shot. 5/10

Personal want is maybe a 3/10? Like I said. Fleche...I mean...eh?

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Ah, Fleche, otherwise known as "Maiden". Many ask "who?" when her name comes up. To others, however, she is a sign of the game's missed opportunity. A unit who could have been playable on CF, but wasn't. A potential Est in a game where archetypes seem to mean little. Does Three Hopes plan to amend the shortcomings identified in Three Houses, or to instead double-down on the aspects that made it a rousing success? We don't yet know, but my suspicion is the latter.

I'll give Fleche a 2 out of 10. I think she's very unlikely, albeit not impossible. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Shanty Pete's 1st Mate
Typo.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Fleche gets a 2.93.

 

Day 33 - Holst

 

Today's rating is for a character who is fascinating in that the story repeatedly builds him up only to never show his face. The leader of the Alliance's army, the defender of Fodlan's locket, and Hilda's badass older brother.

 

I'll go 2/10 for likelihood, and 7/10 for want, because the game presents an excellent opportunity to reveal the character and fill in one of the many empty spaces from 3H. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him being a Hilda costume either.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Florete]

The first character that upon seeing the name my reaction was, "...Who?"

10%

(If you're willing to do characters who don't even appear in any form you'd better have a Gatekeeper day on the schedule)

[Fabulously Olivier]

9 minutes ago, Florete said:

The first character that upon seeing the name my reaction was, "...Who?"

10%

(If you're willing to do characters who don't even appear in any form you'd better have a Gatekeeper day on the schedule)

There absolutely will be a Gatekeeper day. Probably in the Church slot, which is the only slot that still has a lot of playable characters left. I also imagine him being a lot more likely than even many of the students. Maybe not base roster. Very easy dlc seller.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Holst is a character that people may be divided on. In the base game, we're told he's an important general and noble, tasked with holding Fodlan's throat. In practice, however, we never meet him, and he serves as little more than an explainer for Hilda's laziness, and the inferiority complex that it comes from.

The fact that he was never depicted turned into a running joke of sorts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Three Hopes keep up the joke, by mentioning Lord Holst, but always providing a reason for him to be off-screen. I doubt he'll be playable in any capacity, so he gets a 1 out of 10.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Holst...I mean, just like Fleche...eh? 1/10

Personal want, also 1/10. He barely even exists.

[vanguard333]

Holst gets a 1/10. He'd probably be too sick from bad mushrooms to be playable.

[Use the Falchion]

Holst is sadly a 1/10 for getting in, but a 10/10 for desire. I think it'd be hilarious. 

[Etrurian emperor]

I'd give Holst a 6/10: He seems the type of character Koei would put in an ''extreme legends'' expansion.

Want 7/10: He'd be a good way to expand on Hilda and the Alliance. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 hour ago, vanguard333 said:

Holst gets a 1/10. He'd probably be too sick from bad mushrooms to be playable.

Holst's musou attack is a violent stomach upset.

[Dark Holy Elf]

1/10 as playable. Slightly higher chance he appears as a NPC. Significantly higher chance that he's talked up and never appears.

1/10 for want as well. Keep up the goofy running joke if you want, but actually putting him in the game as playable runs a serious risk of upstaging Hilda which would definitely rub me the wrong way. Even as far as "political actors who could be added to the game" goes, I'd far rather see Gloucester, Bergliez, or Varley - they're much more interesting to me (or in the case of Varley, intensely detestable) than Holst.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Dark Holy Elf

[Etrurian emperor]

55 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Holst's musou attack is a violent stomach upset.

Holst's default musou: Throwing up
Holt's super musou: Diarrhea

[vanguard333]

3 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Holst's musou attack is a violent stomach upset.

I know you're joking, but I don't think they'd be able to animate that; I've seen shows and games that will happily show blood and gore but draw the line at vomit (Castlevania for example).

[Fabulously Olivier]

Holst gets 1.75.

 

Day 34 - Manuela

 

I think Manuela is a bit more likely than Hanneman in that I could see them either being a package deal, or she could be added by herself. She could also pretty easily fill Dorothea's role if they choose to pick Ferdinand or Petra over her. 6/10 sounds reasonable to me.

 

8/10 want. I like Manuela. She's a trainwreck in a fun way.

[ciphertul]

I’ll give Manuela a 5/10 on both as she is someone I see as neither highly likely or highly unlikely so right in the middle with her.