How well do you think Three Houses is going to sell?

[redlight]

On 25/04/2019 at 6:28 AM, Disclaimer said:

There's also runaway successful Fire Emblem Heroes to consider, which will only have positive effects on the main series' future sales. A safe bet there'll heavy promotion of Three Houses there, and many people drawn to the series via the mobile game will see Three Houses as a convenient opportunity to try the main series. 

Heroes is a f2p mobile game that's easily accessible (almost everyone has a smartphone and having a phone is pretty much a necessity nowadays) compared to a game console+game that you have to buy. People who play Heroes and own a Switch will most likely buy it. It's just that mobile games have a habit of appealing to people who don't have a lot of time on their hands. It's why mobile gaming is so big in Japan due to it's working society.

On 25/04/2019 at 6:28 AM, Disclaimer said:

Did I mention Three Houses' artwork, done by the popular otome artist Chinatsu Kurahana? Considering the Switch's ownership demographics have reached 50:50 parity between men and women, I'd say her hiring her is a calculated and intelligent move — even if her art is divisive amongst existing fans (...as all art has been lately...). Releasing in the same year is Animal Crossing, a series also popular with female audiences, so that ratio should stay strong or skew further female — which is good for Fire Emblem, and god willing will help reduce the series' recent inclination toward objectifying women and girls.

I don't know much about her. Maybe you can correct me, but it seems her biggest contribution is Uta Prince and Evol. Even then she seems to be popular in the otome game community, but nothing else. I'm a weeb myself so I think it's great if an artist in a niche subculture gets hired to do mainstream things so that more people get to enjoy their work.

No one cares about an artists gender unless you mean how they drew characters and who they market it towards, but even then the gender statistics of people interested in Switch is 50/50 so they have to market towards both (or none at all). Even then, IS is more greedy than smart.

Might be bold of me to say this, but in-game screenshots show a very Persona like style of UI. Not as shaded, but I can see some resemblance. Maybe that's why she was hired tho her character artwork looks incredibly different from the cutouts in-game.

If you have any problems with female character's clothing blame it on Kusakihara. He went really horny in Fates and seems like he was put in check after that. I don't know what he's doing right now.

Edited April 26, 2019 by redlight

[Arvin]

I'd guess higher than Echoes but nowhere near Awakening/Fates. We are on console transition with the franchise on a more expensive console than 3DS.

[𝐅𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐥]

On 25/4/2019 at 5:28 AM, Disclaimer said:

Did I mention Three Houses' artwork, done by the popular otome artist Chinatsu Kurahana? Considering the Switch's ownership demographics have reached 50:50 parity between men and women, I'd say her hiring her is a calculated and intelligent move — even if her art is divisive amongst existing fans (...as all art has been lately...).

the thing is: previous artists may have had their own flaws in terms of characters designs, but that's normal for every game.

however, there's always been a sort of balance between artworks, to the point where less likeable characters may have had designs that were eventually considered bad, but at least they were not terrible( exception made for some Gaiden's designs ).

 

now, let's take a look at some recent designs:

 

if these were meant to be actual main lords instead of secondary characters, i wonder how would have been the reaction of the fanbase. i know everyone has different tastes, but dear lord these designs are awful and easily forgettable.

i really, really tried to not get bothered too much and not hate on this artist's work, but as someone who has always played all paths/routes from previous games and managed to recruit all units for the sake of army completion, i honestly don't even have the mercy to bench these guys. it's the first time in a FE game that i'd rather just let them die in battle and forget about them for the rest of the game( wich is probably what i will do lol ). but that's just me, i guess.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Fenreir

[Cysx]

16 minutes ago, Fenreir said:

if these were meant to be actual main lords instead of secondary characters, i wonder what would have been the reaction of the fanbase. i know everyone has different tastes, but dear lord these designs are awful and easily forgettable.

Well, we did survive Alfonse and Rowan, despite them being almost universally disliked when they got unveiled.

I agree that Lorentz(the left one) has a very flat design, hopefully he's entertaining as a character to compensate. Ignace(the other one) I'm pretty okay with all things considered.

[redlight]

I don't know if Kurahara-sensei has done any works with a large cast, but games with huge rosters of characters require a artist that's able to draw several different quality designs. A lot of FE games with huge casts suffer from quality assurance of a few characters. And the amount of creative and non-terrible artwork depends on the artist. It's one thing to do draw the main cast of 6+NPCs, it's another for 20+ characters and NPCs you're going to be seeing very much in the game.

[Interdimensional Observer]

9 hours ago, Jedi said:

I seem to recall Xenoblade 2 making records for it's series despite all the screeching about it's character design and how it wasn't Xeno 1. 

I believe XCX also got criticism for its designs. From the flat faces in XC1, to eyes that were not appealing either and Lin. Although this isn't as strong for your point, since XCX didn't do as well.

This I think is normal. And it means little.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Interdimensional Observer

[The DanMan]

9 hours ago, Fenreir said:

if these were meant to be actual main lords instead of secondary characters, i wonder how would have been the reaction of the fanbase. i know everyone has different tastes, but dear lord these designs are awful and easily forgettable.

i really, really tried to not get bothered too much and not hate on this artist's work, but as someone who has always played all paths/routes from previous games and managed to recruit all units for the sake of army completion, i honestly don't even have the mercy to bench these guys. it's the first time in a FE game that i'd rather just let them die in battle and forget about them for the rest of the game( wich is probably what i will do lol ). but that's just me, i guess.

Because the series hasn't had its share of generic Lords and doesn't already have it's own stereotypical main character design.

And there's no point in even dwelling on your comparison because they're drastically different from any design we've had for a main character.

How are they any worse than the likes of Sain and Kent?

[Lynsanity]

The series is in an interesting place. It has more name recognition now than it did when Awakening launched - I've had coworkers and people who you wouldn't expect to be hardcore gaming fans reference Fire Emblem, even if their association is that it's for weebs. It's kind of on the level of a well-known anime. That, combined with being the first big entry on a super popular console, and the Nintendo promotion machine behind it, means they'll probably have a success on their hands.

When you think about it, the only SRPG with as much name recognition as Fire Emblem is probably Final Fantasy Tactics, which is a "spinoff" series that hasn't had a new game in over 10 years. So anyone curious about general gaming can't help but be exposed to a new one on Switch - it's basically the vanguard of an entire genre.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Lynsanity

[gone]

On 25.4.2019 at 11:01 PM, The DanMan said:

The vocal minority of the fanbase doesn't mean jack shit.

Should probably explain FEHs current state & revenue figures in it's 2nd year, right? What a good thing, that those passionate fans stopped caring.

11 hours ago, Arvin said:

I'd guess higher than Echoes but nowhere near Awakening/Fates. We are on console transition with the franchise on a more expensive console than 3DS.

That's a very realistic view. 500K ~ 1M sound's right.

I'm also not a huge fan of this artist, not gonna lie. The overall look & presentation of 3H is okay at best and I do believe it will have an important impact on sales as well. You would think IS would take a huge step up from RD graphically into 3H, but that's certainly not what I've seen so far, kinda underwhelming.

 

[The DanMan]

2 minutes ago, fOrEiGn sOUl said:

Should probably explain FEHs current state & revenue figures in it's 2nd year, right? What a good thing, that those passionate fans stopped caring.

FEH is a different beast entirely; it's a free to play game-- the bulk of the revenue comes from a small percentage of players. Obviously the most passionate are the ones spending (or not spending) the most money.

7 minutes ago, fOrEiGn sOUl said:

That's a very realistic view. 500K ~ 1M sound's right.

Awakening: released globally two years into the system's lifespan, 2 million units, puts the series on the map with Fates performing similarly. 

Warriors: Released in the Switch's first year, manages to break a million.

Xenoblade 2: Releases in the Switch's first year and is part of an up and coming series that had only two games, neither of which broke 1 million. Does 1.5 million units.

3 Houses: releasing over two years into the Switch's lifespan, part of an established and growing franchise whose past two mainline games broke 2 million and had a spinoff do 1 million. ...Less than 1 million in sales?

[Sentinel07]

11 minutes ago, fOrEiGn sOUl said:

Should probably explain FEHs current state & revenue figures in it's 2nd year, right? What a good thing, that those passionate fans stopped caring.

That's a very realistic view. 500K ~ 1M sound's right.

I'm also not a huge fan of this artist, not gonna lie. The overall look & presentation of 3H is okay at best and I do believe it will have an important impact on sales as well. You would think IS would take a huge step up from RD graphically into 3H, but that's certainly not what I've seen so far, kinda underwhelming.

 

I don't see how 500k to 1 million is "realistic". If anything, the game's a flop if it can't reach a million since Nintendo is likely expecting Awakening/Fates numbers at the minimum thanks to the Switch's appeal so far.

[Guest Dia]

How well it will sell ?

Short answer : Around 1 Million Units.

For those not interested in the Long answer.... just skip it.

Long answer :

- It is the first FE Game after RD that is on a home console. That and being the first FE Title that Comes to the Switch could get the game some "mercy".

- While the Art of the game may not be everyone's Cup of tea at least the devs are brave enough to make changes. Even if These changes do fail in some parts...it makes the game feel unique. This could bolster up the sales.

- I prefer a rather low Hype. That way the expectation do not skyrocket like it was the case with Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (remember this "Grinch Leak" ?).

- If they do not screw up the DLCs like in SoV then it should be fine. I just hope they do not bring day one DLC up because this would be really annoying. And Shows that the Devs just want quick cash grabs (IMO). -> Of course... if they do not lock characters/clases behind paywalls than that is a good sign too.

- Regarding the possible romantic Options : Like I said ; I can not really see a teacher x Student relationship Happening. Especially not in the west. -> If they go through with it....some changes will most likely be made. -> If not.... it could hurt the sales. (I personally do not care about that).

- If the gameplay (with its new mechanics) is solid/very good then a Story with overused tropes should be fine( aka a "normal" Story). If the Story is a mess again like in Fates then.....it could hurt sales.

- If I can not find any FE: Three Hoses limited Edition in any Story then it could be selling well (well....the scalpers are a Thing I guess).

Overall : It is a FE Game on a home console after a rather "Long time". As such the game can get the "benefit of the doubt" and People will still buy it , even if it is different from Fates and Awakening (regarding Art/Story/mechanics). It all depends how well the Marketing goes . How the DLCs and the Content are dealt with. And how the Overall presentation until the Launch goes.

-> One Thing is for sure : ANOTHER delay will get some People really annoyed. And it will hurt the game in  the Long run. And with it probably its sales. They Need to execute the presentation and release of the game well from now on . -> After 2 delays one will expect that.

I am staying optimistic.

[Armagon]

16 hours ago, Fenreir said:

i really, really tried to not get bothered too much and not hate on this artist's work, but as someone who has always played all paths/routes from previous games and managed to recruit all units for the sake of army completion, i honestly don't even have the mercy to bench these guys. it's the first time in a FE game that i'd rather just let them die in battle and forget about them for the rest of the game( wich is probably what i will do lol ). but that's just me, i guess.

"I know literally nothing about these characters but i've already decided i'll let them die because i don't like how they look". Alright go off, i guess. I know not everyone likes the artstyle and i myself ain't a big fan of it (especially since it's coming after the amazing art that Echoes had) but while there's legitimate criticism, there's also stuff like this which just sounds like trying to find excuses to not like the game. Reminds me of pre-release Xenoblade 2 "discussions".

16 hours ago, Cysx said:

Well, we did survive Alfonse and Rowan, despite them being almost universally disliked when they got unveiled.

Was Alfonse universally disliked? I don't remember seeing him get any hate. Indifference and people making fun of him, sure. But universal dislike? If what Alfonse got is universal dislike, then what did Rowan get when he was unveiled?

5 hours ago, fOrEiGn sOUl said:

You would think IS would take a huge step up from RD graphically into 3H, but that's certainly not what I've seen so far, kinda underwhelming.

I dunno man, i think graphically, 3H blows RD out of the water. RD graphics was just updated PoR graphics. Visually (not talking about the art itself here), it's a massive stepup from RD, which is to be expected because RD was 12 years ago.

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Armagon

[Book Bro]

Honestly I'm a little concerned. I'm sure it'll do well, since it's a 1st party game on Switch. But I don't think it'll be quite as huge as Awakening and Fates. The hype I've seen here and elsewhere has generally been subdued, and imo that's due to three factors: dull art, a bad direction for the second trailer/info video, and a pretty slow/lack of marketing.

The art is polarizing, and apart from the main 3 and Byleth I haven't really seen any hype for the new characters. Contrast that to Fates, for instance. I remember when the retainers were shown everyone wanted to know more about them; they looked interesting. Or with Echoes: the redesigns were really beautiful and made these old characters come alive in ways they hadn't been able to do in Gaiden.

The second showing of the game needed to create hype, and personally, it didn't do it for me. It made me (and apparently many others- even outside "the small bubble that is SF" / "minority of vocal fans") confused about what this game is trying to do. It was only after reading and watching many analyses and theories on the school system and other stuff shown off that I managed to convince myself that yeah, this could be interesting. 

And finally, Nintendo have barely talked about the game. It's coming out in July, so I'm sure they'll be posting more updates now, but like... I thought we learned how to hype up an FE game after Awakening. We know the bare minimum of the story, we haven't really gotten any details on characters beyond the main lords, they haven't done a very good job explaining the gameplay...

Anyway the point is that the game feels like it's going to get a lukewarm response in terms of "new FE" numbers and word of mouth, though it's still early to know for sure. Hopefully the marketing really amps up these last few months to create hype.

[The DanMan]

5 hours ago, Book Bro said:

Honestly I'm a little concerned. I'm sure it'll do well, since it's a 1st party game on Switch. But I don't think it'll be quite as huge as Awakening and Fates. The hype I've seen here and elsewhere has generally been subdued, and imo that's due to three factors: dull art, a bad direction for the second trailer/info video, and a pretty slow/lack of marketing.

The art is polarizing, and apart from the main 3 and Byleth I haven't really seen any hype for the new characters. Contrast that to Fates, for instance. I remember when the retainers were shown everyone wanted to know more about them; they looked interesting. Or with Echoes: the redesigns were really beautiful and made these old characters come alive in ways they hadn't been able to do in Gaiden.

The second showing of the game needed to create hype, and personally, it didn't do it for me. It made me (and apparently many others- even outside "the small bubble that is SF" / "minority of vocal fans") confused about what this game is trying to do. It was only after reading and watching many analyses and theories on the school system and other stuff shown off that I managed to convince myself that yeah, this could be interesting. 

And finally, Nintendo have barely talked about the game. It's coming out in July, so I'm sure they'll be posting more updates now, but like... I thought we learned how to hype up an FE game after Awakening. We know the bare minimum of the story, we haven't really gotten any details on characters beyond the main lords, they haven't done a very good job explaining the gameplay...

Anyway the point is that the game feels like it's going to get a lukewarm response in terms of "new FE" numbers and word of mouth, though it's still early to know for sure. Hopefully the marketing really amps up these last few months to create hype.

Fates' hype machine didn't get rolling until two months before its Japanese release. 
And the only places I've seen people complaining about the art are here and reddit. (That's also some rather selective memory, as there were plenty of complaints about SoV's redesigns being too drastic for many characters, which got an entire thread to itself here.)

We haven't even fully seen characters aside from Byleth and the main 3 at this point, so that's some false equivalency. It's hard to be interested in characters that we don't even have a personality blurb for yet. I'm anticipating that'll change in the coming weeks.

Considering how FEW and Xenoblade 2 turned out, vocal response pre-release shouldn't mean much of anything at all. Hell, especially the former-- people were accusing Nintendo of sending FEW "out to die" with basically non-existant marketing outside of Japan, yet it ended up breaking a million. If the spinoff can put up those numbers in year 1 of the Switch's lifespan, I don't see how the mainline game isn't going to do substantially more released partway through year 3 of the console's lifespan.

 

...At least this is a better take than TC thinking it could kill the franchise.

[Mylady]

If online negativity in the forums were related to sales, Fates and Awakening would had been a flop, but the contrary happened. 

As for Three Houses the only considerable criticism I see is related to the change on the art style, which I'm not particularly fan but is subjective and other people showed to like it. If this is the main "problem", the game will do well. 

[Dinar87]

I think, as soon as nintendo showcases a new trailer; with gameplay showing off most of the various mechanics returning and new, how supports will work, the major conflict/war in the game, flashy critical hits, etc... then people will start paying more attention to it.

Remember, the switch had one trailer before its launch, until the switch presentation a few months before. And now...the switch is on track to be the best selling system of all time possibly.

A new trailer at the fe expo, or even just pure gameplay, would get the hype track on track again probably. I mean, look at what a few very short cutscene clips and one famitsu article did for the community!

Edited April 27, 2019 by Dinar87

[Arvin]

I do appreciate the positivity in this forum but didn't Yoshi flopped? Like it had only 30% sell-through? That game was also delayed. 

[𝐅𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐥]

17 hours ago, The DanMan said:

Because the series hasn't had its share of generic Lords and doesn't already have it's own stereotypical main character design.

if that was specifically about the lords from the GBA era, i could eventually agree, but if it was about the entire franchise, hell no.

also, wearing a mantle has always been a sign of royalty/nobility, so it's really no surprise that majority of the main lords always wore one.

but if you're just going to entirely ignore the characters/outfits designs, then there's no point in going further with this discussion.

10 hours ago, Armagon said:

"I know literally nothing about these characters but i've already decided i'll let them die because i don't like how they look". Alright go off, i guess. I know not everyone likes the artstyle and i myself ain't a big fan of it (especially since it's coming after the amazing art that Echoes had) but while there's legitimate criticism, there's also stuff like this which just sounds like trying to find excuses to not like the game. Reminds me of pre-release Xenoblade 2 "discussions".

the correct phrase should have been "I don't know much about these characters and i won't even bother knowing them, because their presentation is so lame and forgettable to the point that they're not interesting enough for me to actually care".

i can bear the art by itself, even if it's not my favorite because it has a way different style compared to previous games. i just can't bear terrible designs.

there's also a difference between not liking some choices in terms of character designs, and not liking an entire game. i already expressed my opinions and hopes for the story/gameplay before, wich were overall good so far. as long as they don't mess those two up, the game will be alright.

10 hours ago, Armagon said:

I dunno man, i think graphically, 3H blows RD out of the water. RD graphics was just updated PoR graphics. Visually (not talking about the art itself here), it's a massive stepup from RD, which is to be expected because RD was 12 years ago.

the real problem about switching from "pure 3D" to "anime 3D" is the rendering, so in this case i think there's not much room for comparison.

the renders we've seen from recent in-game footage weren't exactly amazing either, they were decent, but that's it. they could still improve the graphics a bit further by the time 3H is released though.

there's also other games such as Guilty Gear Xrd or Gran Blue Versus that use 3D cel-shading to simulate dynamic hi-res 2D renders, and you can clearly see that those are indeed done right.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Fenreir

[Disclaimer]

4 hours ago, Arvin said:

I do appreciate the positivity in this forum but didn't Yoshi flopped? Like it had only 30% sell-through? That game was also delayed. 

Yoshi sold over a million in days.

[Armagon]

4 hours ago, Fenreir said:

the correct phrase should have been "I don't know much about these characters and i won't even bother knowing them, because their presentation is so lame and forgettable to the point that they're not interesting enough for me to actually care".

That's a rather unfair statement to make considering we know nothing about these characters aside from maybe what House they're in. Hell, anyone who isn't Byleth, the three House leaders, or Sothis doesn't even have official art and the official art is much better than the portraits. The only character that we only have a portrait for and somewhat know about is Jeralt and everyone's unanimously agreed he's gonna bite the dust within the first few chapters. Calling the presentation of the other characters "lame and forgettable" when we've only seen very small glimpses of them just comes off as petty. 

 

 

[GrassEater]

honestly? with how well every first party switch game seems to be selling, as well as releasing in a dead month with no competition, i could easily see 3H breaking 2.5M copies in its lifespan.

i also feel like you people are being a bit too hung up on the artstyle scaring people away, like yeah sure i'd rather have hidari again but the artstyle is nowhere near as bad as some of you people claim, and i have yet to see one person pick up echoes because ''the artstyle was pretty''

[The DanMan]

5 hours ago, Fenreir said:

if that was specifically about the lords from the GBA era, i could eventually agree, but if it was about the entire franchise, hell no.

also, wearing a mantle has always been a sign of royalty/nobility, so it's really no surprise that majority of the main lords always wore one.

but if you're just going to entirely ignore the characters/outfits designs, then there's no point in going further with this discussion.

You're the one who's complaining about "generic designs" and yet half the Lords in the series are blue-haired sword Lords.

We know  nothing about most of these characters at this point in time-- you're the one who passed judgement and said they're so generic you'll probably kill them.

 

[eclipse]

. . .we're bickering about projected sales, of all things?

Art's the easiest to nitpick ATM because it's in our faces.  We can't argue about things like My Castle because we don't know if it exists, or in what form.

Internet opinions are always going to be on the negative side, because it's an easy platform to whine on, and it's impossible to please every last FE fan (Awakening tried, but look at how that ended up).

[Jedi]

8 hours ago, Mylady said:

If online negativity in the forums were related to sales, Fates and Awakening would had been a flop, but the contrary happened. 

Exactly.

Also folks claiming graphics = quality in 2019.

Quite embarrassing really.