Draft Minimafia

[Percivalé]

Err, it makes Manix look worse that he kind of gave up, I mean.

[Prims]

Levity - what made you think Elie isn't worth keep your vote down on?

Rothene - are there any lynches you'd support right now if you're not voting BBM?

Empty unvotes are frustrating.

[Percivalé]

Levity - what made you think Elie isn't worth keep your vote down on?

I kinda think my reads are really off right now ):

[BBM]

While I can agree that Prims has done some weird things, I think Elieson is scummier. Despite having posted quite a bit after the wagon on him started, he hasn't done much to respond to the points that people are making against him. A lot of what he's saying isn't really answering the questions, or is sidestepping them somehow.

[Kriemhild]

I don't think that's really necessary. Asking everyone to prove that they are not a role helps scum narrow down which roles people actually are.

Eliminating a single role is really going to narrow it down a whole lot, isn't it? Especially with the possibilities of Vanillas walking around...

Anyhow, Manix's D1 behavior was a bit strange. The whole "not caring" thing was annoying, and made it difficult to get a read on him. I will, however, agree with BBM in that it seems unlikely for Manix to act like that if he were scum. He could be trying to play mindgames with us, but I doubt Manix would try to pull that off.

As for BBM, well, idk, something about his posts just seemed odd. It's interesting how he said that he doesn't want to vote early because players overreacted to that in another game. But votes are the best way to pressure other players. Criticizing Elieson for analyzing voting history seemed like a really scummy move, because votes can tell a lot, and we should NOT wait until we're 95% sure in order to vote (unless the target is at L-1 or something).

BBM had the best logic for voting for me though, which I can interpret as being a logical Townie believing I'm scum, or Scum trying to present very good excuses to lynch me so that we don't get on his case.

Rothene seriously needs to talk more though...

[Grace]

Guys. FMPOV, there is only one person who hasn't claimed vanilla/ is a PR, which is BBM. You know how much that means? It means that BBM DO NOT OUT YOUR ROLE UNLESS REQUIRED. Thankyou.

Also: 3 claimed vanillas? you have got to be kidding me. I don't think that certain roles would be high demand as to have 3 vanillas. but ehhhhhhh

Reminder of drafting order:

Bizz - PR

Prims - PR

BBM - Unknown

Blitz - Town Hooker

Elieson - Vanilla

Manix - I'm not telling you now

Proto - Vanilla

StSS - Town Redirector

Rothene - Vanilla

This gives an implication that there are at most 4 PR's still alive, if BBM and I have a PR. Worse case is that there are only 2 PR's still alive.

Let's look at Elieson:

Has to have picked whatever Bizz, Prims, possibly BBM, or Blitz picked. I'm thinking, given what he's been doing and is likely scum; is that he picked Hooker. It's something I'd expect. I don't know. Just don't out your pick for now.

Proto, pretty much the same, just add in the possibility of me. I don't even know what he'd pick.

And Rothene has picked Amnesiac and got vanilla. So someone in the game should be Amnesiac. => One of me, BBM, Prims, or Bizz should be Am, assuming Rothene is telling the truth.

[Grace]

wow ninjas

but I still manage to address the point anyway. :/

[BBM]

Eliminating a single role is really going to narrow it down a whole lot, isn't it? Especially with the possibilities of Vanillas walking around...

I suppose, but consider that Hooker and Redirector are gone as well.

As for BBM, well, idk, something about his posts just seemed odd. It's interesting how he said that he doesn't want to vote early because players overreacted to that in another game. But votes are the best way to pressure other players. Criticizing Elieson for analyzing voting history seemed like a really scummy move, because votes can tell a lot, and we should NOT wait until we're 95% sure in order to vote (unless the target is at L-1 or something).

I think you misread my post or maybe I didn't explain myself clearly in it. What I was trying to say was that if we wait until the very end to vote, we'll have less voting trends to work with. I was actually advocating analyzing voting history, and arguing against not voting early. The reason I myself didn't vote early was because of Higurashi mafia where I almost got lynched D1 for overreacting to one of Elieson's posts and voting for him. But I realized that letting that affect my play was dumb, but it was too late at that point. Does that make more sense?

BBM had the best logic for voting for me though, which I can interpret as being a logical Townie believing I'm scum, or Scum trying to present very good excuses to lynch me so that we don't get on his case.

By this logic, almost all townie behaviour can be explained away by them being scum trying very hard to seem town.

[BBM]

I suppose, but consider that Hooker and Redirector are gone as well.

And the scum also know that whatever two roles they got are gone. Or if either of them are Vanilla, they know what one of the roles that must exist is.

[Rothene]

Elieson's not looking all that scummy to me from certain angles. So I'd rather not toss myself on that wagon.

I still can't shake my gut feeling off BBM for some reason, but I suppose people smarter than me have already read him more accurately than I.

I think I'll just toss myself on the Manix wagon, since something about his posts just doesn't let me gloss over them. ##Vote: Manix

[Elieson]

Ok BBM, since I'm not answering the questions I'm being asked, what would you like me to answer, specifically?

[BBM]

Be confident. If you think that I'm scummy, then vote for me, and try to get other people to agree that I'm scummy. Maybe it'll work and maybe it won't, but don't just follow whichever wagon you think seems best. That's not helping the town in any way.

[Elieson]

Be confident. If you think that I'm scummy, then vote for me, and try to get other people to agree that I'm scummy. Maybe it'll work and maybe it won't, but don't just follow whichever wagon you think seems best. That's not helping the town in any way.

I'd vote for you if I thought you were the scummiest, but I think Prims is the scummiest. That's why I'm voting for him. And that's why I'm tunneling on him. I've thought about the other players, and I think Prims is the most scummy of everyone here. Prims didn't have enough votes on him to merit my vote staying on him by the end of the dayphase, because no one else agreed with me. So I went with my next choice, which had shifted from Manix to Proto, because voting a NoLynch is proof that he would rather let scum potentially get away with a free night kill. That pisses me off, and that's a scumtell to me. Bigger than Manix's behavior. And it took me a little bit of time to decide how much that mattered to me. If Proto had been lynched, and he was scum, then I'd have been satisfied, because one of the scummier people in my mind was eliminated from the game.

Speaking of Proto;

BBM, Please justify your last minute vote from Proto to Blitz prior to the end of the previous Dayphase again. It's your vote there that killed Blitz and saved Proto.

[BBM]

Ok BBM, since I'm not answering the questions I'm being asked, what would you like me to answer, specifically?

Basically, why are you agreeing with half of Prims and Manix's posts despite finding them both scummy? Your points against Manix are the ones Prims, the person you think is the scummiest, is making, and your points against Prims were mainly what Manix was saying. You're taking Manix's side against Prims, Prims's side against Manix, and simultaneously saying they're both scummy. What? You've been sheeping almost as much as Rothene has, except you're not clueless or inactive like he is.

[BBM]

I'd vote for you if I thought you were the scummiest, but I think Prims is the scummiest. That's why I'm voting for him. And that's why I'm tunneling on him. I've thought about the other players, and I think Prims is the most scummy of everyone here. Prims didn't have enough votes on him to merit my vote staying on him by the end of the dayphase, because no one else agreed with me. So I went with my next choice, which had shifted from Manix to Proto, because voting a NoLynch is proof that he would rather let scum potentially get away with a free night kill. That pisses me off, and that's a scumtell to me. Bigger than Manix's behavior. And it took me a little bit of time to decide how much that mattered to me. If Proto had been lynched, and he was scum, then I'd have been satisfied, because one of the scummier people in my mind was eliminated from the game.

Speaking of Proto;

BBM, Please justify your last minute vote from Proto to Blitz prior to the end of the previous Dayphase again. It's your vote there that killed Blitz and saved Proto.

First off, that post about being more confident was directed towards Rothene, not you. You ninja'd me.

As for my change from Proto to Blitz, it was three reasons mainly. The first was that last post he made where he dropped off a vote without any reasoning and then announced he wouldn't be back before phase end. That was dumb, and a scummy thing for him to do even if he flipped town. Secondly, while I initially thought that Proto's reaction to his impending lynch was scummy, Prims's point made sense. And finally, I thought that lynching Blitz, who had been more active, would result in more information to the town than lynching Proto, a player who had been mainly inactive, would. Almost all the votes for Proto were for the same reason (the nolynch vote) meaning that more than just scum were thinking that and analyzing those particular voting trends upon Proto's flip would therefore yield little.

[Kriemhild]

I suppose, but consider that Hooker and Redirector are gone as well.

There are still plenty of roles and quite few players with power roles, so it still leaves a lot.

Also, Goodbye, Bizz!

I think you misread my post or maybe I didn't explain myself clearly in it. What I was trying to say was that if we wait until the very end to vote, we'll have less voting trends to work with. I was actually advocating analyzing voting history, and arguing against not voting early. The reason I myself didn't vote early was because of Higurashi mafia where I almost got lynched D1 for overreacting to one of Elieson's posts and voting for him. But I realized that letting that affect my play was dumb, but it was too late at that point. Does that make more sense?

Sort of, yeah. Thanks for clearing that up.

By this logic, almost all townie behaviour can be explained away by them being scum trying very hard to seem town.

That logic wasn't meant to prove anything, btw.

Anyways, lynching Manix just doesn't seem right to me. I'm okay with lynching Elieson though. I think lynching Prims would be the most informative, regardless of alignment, but the potential loss is not worth risking imo.

[Elieson]

Basically, why are you agreeing with half of Prims and Manix's posts despite finding them both scummy? Your points against Manix are the ones Prims, the person you think is the scummiest, is making, and your points against Prims were mainly what Manix was saying. You're taking Manix's side against Prims, Prims's side against Manix, and simultaneously saying they're both scummy. What? You've been sheeping almost as much as Rothene has, except you're not clueless or inactive like he is.

Why I think Manix is scummy.

"Please don't talk about drafting strategy in the game thread." - Paperblade, opening post

Just a reminder that this is a thing.

also: meh to your votes. go ahead, all of my caring is gone right now. It left for Alaska just the other day.

Why are you not caring?

okay, if you say so

eh. if you want to lynch me, then go ahead. I won't hold it against you.

Once again. If you don't care, why'd you sign up in the first place?

Also, reiterating my lack of caring if I'm lynched

because it'll only help town more

Ok. Umm, it'll help town how exactly? If you're town, and you say "Hey Lynch me", you're hurting town, not helping town.

Things Manix posted that make sense.

Well, in that case

I'm going to meta the crap out of players then (re:roles)

only to myself though

because ~reasons

A thought process that sorta makes sense. Analyze meta, then consider roles. As opposed to just looking at meta.

Right now, since you seem to be doing everything in your power to annoy the shit out of me with bad logic, yes.

I agree with that (it's in reference to his reply to Prims' "Am I Scum" quote).

Why I think Prims is scummy.

I know something about the role you picked which seems slightly iffy I don't think anybody else in the game would be aware of the meta I'm talking about. Obviously I'm not outing information about anybody's role.

Only I don't actually distrust you that much over it, it was an ED1 vote and I wanted to see how you'd respond.

Self-meta is lame tho

Some sort of cocky code that he's got. That is the first thing that frustrated me.

I think town with high priority would be just as likely to pick doc as scum with high priority, if not more.

I'm not sure if it would actually be that great of a move for scum: town would still be able to end up with a redirector, which could redirect the scum NK from an obvtown player to a lynch target (and possibly even scum). Redirector itself would be a better pick for scum, actually. So would Hooker for obvious reasons.

As scum I would just pick dayvig cuz meta would let me get away with shooting somebody on impulse

Levity: Self-meta is the weakest form of defense, meta on other players is at least scumhunting. IN ANY CASE the meta here is basically just a dumb excuse for an earlygame vote.

If people aren't voting and forming earlygame trains we get less of a chance to make anything out of the RVS.

##Unvote

##Vote Manix

I didn't even think of that possibility until Prims posted it.

BBM: If Blitz is the scummiest to you, why aren't you voting him?

Elie: I'm not being vague, I'm just not saying more than what needs to be said. I'm not going to claim ED1 over a half-serious point against Levity which I have explained multiple times. Yeah, I'm not the only person who knows anything about roles, but bringing up the elephant in the room is hardly scummy in this context.

I want to hear more than role speculation from Proto and Rothene. "nothing's happening" not really, I have a serious vote on Manix, Blitz and Levity have been posting enough to make them analyzable and now Elie and BBM have serious opinions too.

Blitz should speak up again, too. He was an early town read for getting engaged in discussion, but then he sort of petered out and resorted to typical ED1 prodvote nonsense and I've made my stance on that being useless multiple times in past games. I'm still content voting Manix because he hasn't really done much aside from fumble around. No opinions whatsoever means there's no reason for me to move my vote.

It's not scummy to bring up something obvious, as you say the "elephant", but the way you worded it just irked me, it felt more condescending than anything else.

That's not actually what you said.

You said people say you're too quick to vote. I said people can't actually be too quick to vote outside of LYLO / MYLO (where scum can hammer instantly) or situations where the other player is at L-1, because this is true. We are not in LYLO / MYLO and Blitz is not L-1.

People act like you can't take back votes or move them once you make them and that's absolutely retarded because not only is it not true, it's a mentality that leads to people being conservative with votes when they shouldn't be (and therefore, playing worse).

I've called attention to this before. You analyze voting trends. I've been analyzed by not voting, and by voting. I thought this was a way of him saying "change your votes. It won't bother me if you vote for me and change it, but I'll still consider your alignment as such based on what i think it is".

Important question: am I scum?

Do I need to say more?

Things Prims posted that make sense.

Content voting Manix, I feel like the other active posters (B[l]i[t]z[z]) right now are townies being silly. Manix is just acknowledging that we're being silly but not really doing or saying any of much, which is scummy enough for a vote at this stage of the game.

I also want people to drop votes (serious or not) and form RVS trains or something because watching SF games take forever to leave the RVS is frustrating.

You all know that I feel this way. You should know from Higurashi especially.

Going to bed, but want to address this first:

Nowhere in my posts did I say that I actually KNOW Levity's role (which I may or may not), or that she knows what mine is. I also never even claimed Vanilla. Honestly, this should be common sense: I picked after Levity, therefore I either know what her role is or one thing her role is not. Likewise, BBM either knows of a role that one Levity and I have to have, or knows of a role that both Levity and I can not possibly have. That's just how the drafting process works. Trying to twist this into me revealing role information is silly. It was just a pressure vote because I wanted to see how she'd respond to my apparent usage of "weak meta", it's not even relevant right now.

BBM's post was before the Levity/Prims conversation escalated significantly, and also he didn't go out of his way to acknowledge it without saying anything of worth about it when he made said post. Manix has just been one of Those Players who responds a lot earlygame without actually raising anything in reply to serious points, which is detrimental to us getting stuff done - basically active lurking if you can say such a thing exists during ED1.

I thought Rothene's post was just speculating wrt the Amnesiac thing and not at all a roleclaim. It's null, wish that he had thoughts on players and not roles, or that he could at least post some in the morning if he's currently too sleepy for :mafiers:.

You know, this actually is a decent summary of Manix's behavior.

---

And this is everything just before Page 8, where I have small things here and there between the two of them that make sense, and that are scumtells. I posted more on Pg 9, and I could easily go into things more, but this is taking forever just up until Page 8.

[Elieson]

That's also not counting the more recent half of the game, where Prims is so certain that there's a vig that he's trying to get us all to out it.

Convienently, he used his Vigjoke against Manix, and Manix is one of the few that haven't claimed yet. Not that it's 100% likely that Manix has the dayvig, but between all the fingerpointing, it's a legit possibility, since he is not letting anything out about it.

---

Here, let me go one step further with my stance on why you shouldn't waste time focusing on lynching me.

Where Manix doesn't care if he's lynched, bringing the towncount down by 1 if he is town, or making life for his scumbuddy ridiculously harder playing the "i don't care" gambit, expecting to make it through like he did in ICBINSFMM2, I don't want town to lynch me because we already have had a mislynch, and we're short another town (bringing the score to what I assume is 5:2, or the less likely but still possible 4:2:1)

Prims is so certain there's a vig out there, and if it's scum, then one mislynch brings us to 4:2, followed by a NK (3:2), and a dayvig the following day (2:2), resulting in essentially, a game lost for town. I didn't think of that possibility until he posted the idea of a vig out in the open. If there is indeed a vig, then we can't afford to mislynch at all. I claimed already, and I would not be surprised at all if the one who suggested the dayvig existing in the first place was indeed the vig, or allied with the vig. Apparently he's not the vig (as proven through his Vigjoke), but there's still the untold Manix, and even BBM, or someone out there is lying about their role.

If it's 4:2:1, and we mislynch, it's 3:2:1, and any vig has an extra shot against a potential stopped NK, still assuring in the next day win for scum if it hits a town.

I already explained the theory about Amnesiac copying Vigshot, allowing essentially the same thing to happen if it's scum!Amnesiac and the dayvig shoots a town (no matter what the alignment of the original Vig). So, I'd rather not put the town in a scenario where we are 1 mislynch from a theoretical vigshot loss (that Prims has made me terrified of).

Believe me or not, but this is what I've figured out as a possibility by piecing together everything that can happen.

As far as roles go, it wouldn't surprise me if Rothene was Vanilla. He's so far down the priority list that even if he's scum, he probably doesn't have a power role. Leaving his gambits to his brain and a nightkill. BBM was 3rd in the order, so it's highly possible that he has the dayvig. It's less possible for Manix, and Proto too, but if BBM thought anything like me, then he would've tried to pick a different role, in hopes to prevent a vigshot from occuring, instead of trying to take it himself. Bizz hinted at having a favorite role, and that combined with her Vigjoke assure me that she's not the vig, as is Prims and my own Vigjoke. Blitz didn't pick it either, nor did Straw. Proto and Manix both have a fair shot of having the Dayvig role, if BBM didn't claim it to himself. No matter the alignment, it's still dangerous though, if it hits a not-yet-confirmed town.

[Grace]

okay, let's prove I'm not the dayvig

Goodbye, Elieson!

good? good.

[Elieson]

Perhaps I should create a "Not Dayvig" list.

BBM - No called shot (or claim, for that matter)

Bizz - Called shot, confirmed not

Elieson - Called shot, confirmed not

Manix - Called shot, not yet confirmed

Prims - Called shot, confirmed not

Proto - Called shot, not yet confirmed

Rothene - No called shot

[Grace]

In addition; we are assuming that there actually is a dayvig in the first place. Who's to say there actually is? FMPOV; I don't know. Somehow, I don't think it was actually picked. alternatively, BBM has it is the next most likely. but eh

[Elieson]

Guys. FMPOV, there is only one person who hasn't claimed vanilla/ is a PR, which is BBM. You know how much that means? It means that BBM DO NOT OUT YOUR ROLE UNLESS REQUIRED. Thankyou.

Also: 3 claimed vanillas? you have got to be kidding me. I don't think that certain roles would be high demand as to have 3 vanillas. but ehhhhhhh

Reminder of drafting order:

Bizz - PR

Prims - PR

BBM - Unknown

Blitz - Town Hooker

Elieson - Vanilla

Manix - I'm not telling you now

Proto - Vanilla

StSS - Town Redirector

Rothene - Vanilla

This gives an implication that there are at most 4 PR's still alive, if BBM and I have a PR. Worse case is that there are only 2 PR's still alive.

Let's look at Elieson:

Has to have picked whatever Bizz, Prims, possibly BBM, or Blitz picked. I'm thinking, given what he's been doing and is likely scum; is that he picked Hooker. It's something I'd expect. I don't know. Just don't out your pick for now.

Proto, pretty much the same, just add in the possibility of me. I don't even know what he'd pick.

And Rothene has picked Amnesiac and got vanilla. So someone in the game should be Amnesiac. => One of me, BBM, Prims, or Bizz should be Am, assuming Rothene is telling the truth.

3 Vanillas are completely possible. The same role doesn't have to be in that huge demand. It's possible that all vanilla claims are based of of a single choice for each (i.e. Bizz picked Networker, Rothene picked Networker. Prims picked Doctor, I picked Doctor. Manix, you picked whatever you picked, and Proto picked the same.)

And you don't think you're tunneling? You only made a consideration for me being scum. Just curious what you think I could've picked, if you were thinking I wasn't scum.

[Grace]

If you weren't scum, I could see you pick Doc, possibly.

And why I didn't consider Proto for other picks is because there's just too many possibilities that he could have picked to be a vanilla. But really, the same goes for him if he was scum. But, again, I don't actually know what you picked.

[Percivalé]

BBM is starting to worry me a little /: what makes him any more clear than the rest of us?

[Grace]

BBM is starting to worry me a little /: what makes him any more clear than the rest of us?

I haven't got him as cleared. Heck, I don't actually find him that notable, and FMPOV, he's the only unknown. It's a bit disconcerting, really.

That Blitz vote from the Proto vote... if BBM is scum, I'd almost say that Proto is his scumbuddy. And right now, BBM is not looking great.

##Vote: BBM

I actually want to see what BBM flips, tbqh.