Almost OC Mafia - Game Over

[Shinori]

My internet being out makes me annoyed.

In response to BBM: I now feel that Junko is more likely scum than GP. I haven't liked his responses. Let me read some stuff now.

[Shinori]

Fucking thunder hit something power flashed and my post got ate.....................................................

[Junk]

Eh people seemed to be saying that I sheeped GP's case. While our cases turned out to be similar I actually was typing my vote before she posted hers. My post came later because I was distracted doing homework and other stuff.

[Green Poet]

[spoiler=lots of words]Well, this is disheartening. I'm at L-2, I think?

With less than 24 hours in the phase, and me being unable to post until at least 24 hours from now, I'm going to consider this my last post of the phase and probably the game. I'm not going to be arguing why I'm not scum anymore; I've been a broken record for longer than necessary and people are actually asking why I'm doing nothing other than putting out defensive walls. . .

So let's compromise; I'm going to stop wasting my effort trying to make it any clearer why my actions have been town-motivated and instead give a listpost so that my lynch will at least incur some benefit to town, however small.

First, I'm going to claim now, because I probably won't get the chance to later on.

I'm a VT, simple as that. That a sample VT PM was provided to everyone made me slightly more inclined earlier on that FFM was telling the truth because there would be several VTs in the game. I'm not going to say if and whom I have OC with, since no one can nor should try to vouch for me, as it's obviously impossible for me to have definitively proved that I'm a VT to any potential neighbors. Anyone whom I declare to have OC with would become a better nightkill candidate after I flip, so I won't. Call me scummy for it if you like; I see it as the most beneficial effort I can still make even if others would deny it.

Listpost time. I won't be discussing Euklyd or BBM because you all already know what I think of them.

I previously stated I had townreads on Shinori and Marth. The former is more of a null read now.

Shinori has taken initiative on questioning Junko, who's his main read that Shinori's pursued from the beginning. So, to his credit, he didn't jump on the Junko wagon; he started it. The reasoning itself is solid, too. Junko avoided giving reads on me and seemed to think I was town, or if not, many seemed to think he was sheeping my case on Euklyd inadequately. So cases began to spring up on Junko from Shinori's initial suspicion as to whether or not he's my scumbuddy and such. So this is all very much to Shinori's merit/towniness, etc.

What I don't like about Shinori is how he exclusively focuses on Junko. With the obvious exception of his RVS vote on Refa, each of his directly game-related posts are about Junko and questioning him. The one post where Shinori talks about someone else is wrt myself, but Shinori actually avoids stating what his read on me is. He vaguely says that he's "not required to vote his #1 scumread" when asked why he isn't voting me. . . so are you saying I'm your top scumread but you feel like questioning Junko more? Why would that be? You say that others are already putting pressure on me so you don't need to, but that means that others are asking the same questions and making the same cases against me that you would, which shouldn't be happening unless you have OC with a majority of everyone else on my wagon, or you're distributing questions to be asked in scumchat. Were there really no issues with my cases and situation that you felt deserved a mention?

Shinori TL;DR - makes a good case on Junko and sticks with it, but is ambiguous on all of his other reads and is too tunnelly for me to call him solid town.

Marth has been asking good questions and was the first to call out Cam for spreading out questions to everyone without actually stating his (Cam's) own reads. His observation that Cam is voteparking is good in that it (1) caused Cam to start giving his reads and (2) elaborate on a Poly case that had seen no light since RVS. That Marth decides to vote Shin for lazy/inactive scumhunting (the case is in his previous post) is what makes me most confident about his towniness, as it draws to include an otherwise unnoticed player into contention. He doesn't ignore the more prominent/popular wagons like my own, isn't tunnely, and has had good consistent play.

FFM I feel I have discussed more than enough. His early play has been poor, no question, but I've given reasons as to why "poor play" isn't the same as "scummy play." I don't really like how his subsequent posts after the initial drama have been largely passive. This "I can still vote you, you know" bit is unsettling because it feels like a poorly hidden threat; it's beyond obvious that anyone's votes are subject to change and this sort of language is easily employed by scum in order to give the impression of suspecting someone while not committing to it, especially so in the case of a scumbuddy.

That said, the rest of his interactions with Cam contextualize this because it's clear he does feel hesitant about Cam. This and this feel particularly organic and he's not trying to distance himself from any players. I would say that FFM's play is still townie, if not as consistent as it could be.

Refa has been lazy. This vote, which I won't be arguing against, cites the same reasons that comprise every other vote on me. He states suspicion against Cam because of voteparking. . . which was initially brought up by Marth. He states suspicion against Shin for lazy scumhunting. . . again, Marth's case. I see no original cases nor reads. This post is largely filler. It comments on part of a Eury wall, then immediately qualifies the statement with a "oh, I just read something that makes my previous opinion now inapplicable." This even skims over the fact that I explained far before Refa's post why ED1 votes are logistically more likely than not to be on town than scum, which is highly suspect because the entire notion of ED1 votes being on town was introduced in the exact same post. The inattentiveness, or selective quoting, is suspect.

His initial FFM case is good, and I don't see why people like Shinori felt it necessary to call it too hasty, much less scummy. Everyone agrees that FFM shouldn't have claimed, and it's practically a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario in which Refa voted FFM and I didn't, both of us pointing out the same flaw in his post, and yet everyone still had something to say about both behaviors that indicated scuminess. This post defending Cam was great, but I don't understand why you'd go and say "I'm still bothered by Cam" at the end of the post, right after having written a wall as to why Cam's questions are helping him make reads, how he'll present those reads later, etc. Later he says that Cam is doing "objectively scummy things" though, so I'm still uncertain as to what Refa's actual opinion on Cam is. Do you think he's scum or not? He has a moderately high position on your lynch priority, so elaborate on it.

TL;DR - I feel that Refa's reads are inconsistent but interesting, and I'm not getting any decisively townie/scummy reads from him. A flat null.

Eury is someone who I think will become easier to read once associative reads are in the air. For a while I've been wondering if she and Euklyd are scumbuddies, and naturally her most recent post caught my attention. She thinks that Junko, FFM and myself are scum. . . what's the commonality between us? We are all voting Euklyd. Can I say this means anything about Eury's alignment without flips or night actions? No, but it's worth keeping in mind after I flip town.

Otherwise, it's difficult to parse between the voice of the usual, wall-assembling Eury and scum!Eury. Eury has predictably guessed my alignment correctly in her first listpost wall of each of the four (?) games we've played in which I was town, and vice-versa when she was scum. While it's not anything that's reliable or telling evidence, I find it unlikely that the intuition behind those previous reads would be wrong this time.

I don't like how her listpost commits so little to Euklyd. It restates my reasons for voting him while wording them to appear trivial, then restates Euklyd's case on me form a clearly partial standpoint. Is the scarcity of content he's produced so convincing as to gain your confidence? The support for Euklyd and subtle attacks on anyone voting him is suspicious to me, but I'm sure town will consider this more once I flip town, and even more so if either Euklyd or Eury flips.

TL;DR - leaning conditionally scum based on yet-unconfirmed association. Eury is inherently difficult to read, and has a way of presenting listposts such that they appear logical regardless of alignment.

Shin has little content for me to really consider. I can see why Marth and the people sheeping his Shin case would think that he's been lazy, but only in the capacity that Shin simply has few posts. I said before that he was worth keeping an eye on solely because of this, but by the very issue of his infrequent posts it's difficult to do. He lacks interactions with the rest of the players that one could judge (with the exception of some very brief exchanges with Cam), which doesn't help either.

This post is poor in that it points out issues with FFM and Cam thoroughly but opts to vote Junko based on a two-line reason that was already asserted by Shinori. I don't understand why Shin's lynch priority runs in such a way that doesn't reflect what his reads are saying. His criticism of Poly was addressed so long ago that it shouldn't have been brought up at all unless Shin didn't believe Poly's explanation. . . but from what I'm reading of Shin's post, it doesn't appear as though he realizes the explanation exists. I would say Shin's been playing like how scum would, though inattentiveness only incriminates you so far. If he had more interactions, I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him at this time, if that was hypothetically possible.

Polydeuces has been tentative in his reads, I feel. Note that the following link quotes are my paraphrase of Poly's words, not copied word-for-word.

His interactions with Cam feel like he doesn't want to call Cam scum for all of the questioning that's being tossed his (Poly's) way, and this "I actually think you're town because of all of your questions" and "despite disagreeing with your play I think you're probably town" feels like appeasement more than anything to get Cam off his case. Asking things like "why are we even still discussing my attack on someone else? It's not relevant anymore" read like he would rather avoid the questions than answer them, though he hasn't shied away from actually giving the answers to Cam. The interactions feel hesitant when there shouldn't be a need to, put simply.

Also, this and this promise later cases on me. None are given, but a vote is. There's his initial "I'll give a case on GP soon" and the "here's a vote on GP, I'll explain why later" 11 hours later. Yeah, I understand it's fashionable to sheep the case on me now, but it'd help immensely to discern your intentions if you would state that you simply are sheeping. Otherwise, placing a vote on someone and not explaining why implies that you are informed, that you already know who an ideal lynch for your faction is, with the only issue being that you can't assemble a townie-looking case to support it.

Last qualm with Poly is his indecisiveness on his Refa read. Initially, he says he's not sure about Refa, which makes sense because he presents varying aspects of Refa's play that aren't indicative of alignment. But he eventually cedes that Refa's looking better because he's. . . dropped an issue? Isn't that an indication of scuminess, suddenly not continuing to pursue reasoning that you had believed in before?

TL;DR - confused by Poly's Cam interactions and what his current reads are, and I'm not satisfied by his effortless and still-unexplained jump onto my wagon. Not decisively scummy play, but I wouldn't call him a townie by any respects.

Junko hasn't had the strongest original cases, but I'm naturally biased because he was one of the few that actually supported my Euklyd case. His later unvote isn't even founded in truth, though; Euklyd still believes I am scum and vice-versa, and so Junko's explanation doesn't make sense, which is odd given how defensive he had been earlier that we were on the right track. Junko feels too passive for my taste, and the unvote feels motivated by the pressure he's getting for believing in his Euklyd case than because he actually feels Euklyd's unlikely to be scum. And this is just lazy reading.

As with many others, I still don't know who Junko's scumreads are. After his unvote, there's no one I could say "this is someone that Junko stated strong suspicion against before." This might be explained by how he hasn't had very much time to play mafia of late, but later clarification would help his case a lot.

If I've missed anyone. . . that's too bad. Time to sleep. On the off-chance that I am alive during the next day phase, I should disclaim that this much efforting shouldn't be expected again, because this is an attempt to contribute as much as I can in one go before I won't be able to do so again. If I'm lynched, all I can say is that I apologize to town for playing in such a way that this has happened.

[Green Poet]

. . .Yep, looks like I missed Cam. Sorry, I don't have the energy to remedy that.

If it actually matters, right now I'm reading Cam null, but I haven't ISO'd him yet.

That's (probably) all from me this phase. Good luck, town.

[Refa]

##Unvote

That last post was...why. The vanilla town claim is a null tell for me (heck, I did it as scum in Yume Nikki, and obviously I still found FFM suspicious despite that early on in the day), but there's no way scum would effort that much as a last ditch effort at L-2. Fuck, sorry for dropping another empty unvote (and not answering anything else, I've just kind of been lurking but haven't had enough time to make a post; I really shouldn't be making this one but I really wanted to get it out ASAP) and if GP flips scum in the future I'll be so mad but at the moment I cannot reconcile that post with scum play. Epic backtracking here, but really would rather not lynch GP.

PS GP lynch priority please. I get who you're bothered by from your last post, but aside from Euklyd not who you think is most likely to flip scum.

[FrostyFireMage]

Man, that vote hurt bro. I'm going to have to fall back on the classic "British and timezones" excuse! Not entirely sure I buy the reasons, but I guess I haven't posted a tremendous amount. The thing about Cam voteparking on Poly so he can swap to a viable GP lynch later sounds pretty bad. Surely even the incompetent Camdar realises the consequences of a last minute swap, especially after he's suddenly decided that GP's town after a long spell of scumreading.

You're getting pretty defensive over one vote, even when you're hardly the biggest wagon.

Will post more later.

[FrostyFireMage]

##Unvote

After his ED1, FFM's posts have improved a lot must be getting coached. In all seriousness though, the lack of scumvibes I'm getting from them (and I do feel like FFM would be more obvious by nature of not having rolled scum that much) makes me reconsider my early suspicion.

The people I'm bothered the most by at the moment are GP and Cam, but I need to read Page 5 (spoilers- I haven't read Page 5 because this post was long enough as it is) before I put down a vote on either of them. Leaning more towards GP ATM because some of Cam's actions are giving me town vibes. Also I believe her vote is on someone with like one post, which is all kinds of lazy. GP, who else is scum? To be fair, Junko and FFM also have the same issue, but I feel like they're pursuing other cases so it's not bothering me as much (still kind of bad play though). Poly is a weaker suspicion because he kind of just disappeared, but he does that as town too so meh. It'd be great if he stopped doing that. ;_;

I honestly don't see how my posts have improved "a lot", considering they're barely progressive compared to the efforts of other people. Mind elaborating?

Seems like you're just trying to justify dropping your earlier vote on me.

One thing puzzles me about GP for sure. Why Shin as a scumread? From the looks of your ED1 content even if you thought that poly and FFM were not scummy enough to be scum it makes no sense for you to place them below an inactive? Mind elaborating more on why shin is a scumread? Gtg now though so will answer other questions later sorry al

Feels like Junko is just skimming the topic and posting fluff about GP because of the wagon on her.

I'm now pretty sure GP is town: her latest post has far too much effort into it considering she's liable to be hammered soon, and her earlier contradictions seem like inexperienced errors (I dunno just how much of a greenhorn she is but based on the accounts of others she isn't exactly a veteran).

Poly defending me is more of a case of explaining my actions due to my inexperience than trying to take heat off a scumbuddy (he's well aware of my scrubbiness and is savvy enough to know I'm more than likely to make naive errors). I've made quite a few suspicious town plays before and I guess he's trying to keep everyone from a lynch that'll get us nowhere.

Cal kinda dwelled on my playing a little too much (probably hoping I'll post something stupid and building a case on me from there?) and his Poly vote seems kind of random based on his focus on GP. Being honest about your secretiveness also doesn't keep your secretiveness from being scummy, I've figured.

Shin doesn't post much and then focuses on a single vote targeted at him. Touchy much?

Also my Euk read hasn't really changed and so I won't change my vote. Felt like he tried to start a wagon with his decisive read and vote.

Town: Me, GP

Leaning Town: Poly.

Null: Shinori, BBM, Cal, Everyone Else

Null, Leaning Scum: Junko, Refa, Shin

Likely Scum: Euk

[CT075]

I'm now pretty sure GP is town: her latest post has far too much effort into it considering she's liable to be hammered soon,

why does that make her town

unless you mean that scum don't make last-ditch efforts?

Cal kinda dwelled on my playing a little too much (probably hoping I'll post something stupid and building a case on me from there?) and his Poly vote seems kind of random based on his focus on GP. Being honest about your secretiveness also doesn't keep your secretiveness from being scummy, I've figured.

am i scum?

Felt like he tried to start a wagon with his decisive read and vote.

why is this scummy

[Bluedoom]

Yo sorry guys but I'm out for the next 8 hours so I'll make a post then.

[charlie_]

Votals 1.5

Green Poet (4): BBM, Euklyd, Eurykins, Polydeuces

Euklyd (2): Green Poet, FFM

Junko (2): Shinori, Shin

Polydeuces (1): Camtech

Shin (1): Bluedoom

Not Voting (2): Junko, Refa

With 12 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. You have 12 hours and 20 minutes left in the day.

[euklyd]

I was going to go into Cam's exchange with BBM but really I don't have anything to say that BBM didn't.

Eury is someone who I think will become easier to read once associative reads are in the air. For a while I've been wondering if she and Euklyd are scumbuddies, and naturally her most recent post caught my attention. She thinks that Junko, FFM and myself are scum. . . what's the commonality between us? We are all voting Euklyd. Can I say this means anything about Eury's alignment without flips or night actions? No, but it's worth keeping in mind after I flip town.

holy shit
do you understand how hypocritical you're being
"Hey, what's the commonality between me, BBM, and Eury - you know, the people you think are scummy? We're all voting YOU. I think you're proba-" actually I legit do think you're scum. Have for a while now.

His initial FFM case is good, and I don't see why people like Shinori felt it necessary to call it too hasty, much less scummy. Everyone agrees that FFM shouldn't have claimed, and it's practically a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario in which Refa voted FFM and I didn't, both of us pointing out the same flaw in his post, and yet everyone still had something to say about both behaviors that indicated scuminess.

I...don't think that anyone actually indicated that they found both both your lack of vote and Refa's vote scummy, did they? If they did, well....I am always up for lynching more scum 8]

Also my Euk read hasn't really changed and so I won't change my vote. Felt like he tried to start a wagon with his decisive read and vote.

lol

I'm probably not gonna be awake tomorrow before deadline; I'm rapidly feeling less and less coherent. If I get nightkilled then I won't have a chance to say this: GP has quite a few interactions with other players (and more importantly, other players have interactions with her) that could probably lead us to one or two more scum. Looking at Cocomon/FFM/Cam, I think, but I don't really feel up to rereading things at this point.
(I'm assuming that GP flips scum here; me being nightkilled is rather less likely in the event that she flips town)
#lininguplynches

if I'm awake in the morning I'll post more then as it is I'm literally falling asleep as I type this. I doubt I'll be awake in the morning, though.
Like holy shit I literally fell asleep for a bit.

I'm going to bed. Goodnight.

[BBM]

Okay I was really tired when I got home last night so I didn't make a post. I should be around until phase end though.

I have decided to sheep Refa's reasoning and unvote GP. ##Unvote

Mainly the VT claim is a point in her favour, and I also think that the reads post is townie. It's not that scum don't make last ditch efforts, but last ditch scum efforts are generally more geared towards defense than giving reads on other people. Also the reads in it are generally okay. MEH

##Vote: Junko

I think I'd rather go with this right now because of his behaviour towards GP. They began by voting for the same person. I don't think that Junko was necessarily sheeping the Euklyd case because it was very close in time to GP's post. Not very long after, he's defending GP from Cam. The fact that she's voting Euklyd for skimming the thread and attacking GP because she was under pressure also indicates a somewhat townish lean on GP. But then he starts suddenly attacking him midway for putting Shin higher in lynch priority than FFM and Poly? Seems kind of weak, especially since his vote is still on Euklyd at that point. Also mentions Eury not being on GP's scumread list, which is fair enough but still doesn't mesh with where his vote is.

I mentioned earlier that I also didn't like the appeal to his own inexperience and his response to Shinori's vote is kind of similar ("is it just me"). The Refa/Shinori thing in that post is also bad because it's just mudslinging. Okay, you have a gut read on Refa/Shinori. Then why doesn't he ever follow up later on Refa? He follows up on Shinori kind of, but in #143 he calls Shinori female and accuses him of wallposting responses to Eury which is ??? and makes me feel he was talking about GP there instead of Shinori. So really it's just a question asking Shinori about his thoughts.

[charlie_]

Votals 1.6

Green Poet (3): Euklyd, Eurykins, Polydeuces

Junko (3): Shinori, Shin, BBM

Euklyd (2): Green Poet, FFM

Polydeuces (1): Camtech

Shin (1): Bluedoom

Not Voting (2): Junko, Refa

With 12 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. You have 4 hours and 30 minutes left in the day.

As a reminder, failure to achieve a lynch will result in universal loss.

Edited May 22, 2014 by SB.

[Green Poet]

@Refa

Euk > Shin >>> BBM = Eury > Junko >>> Cam = Refa = Poly > Shinori > FFM >>> Marth

I'll try to be around at phase end. I've said my piece, and might vote Junko if there's no other recourse.

[BBM]

Since I figure people with night actions might want to try to talk to some townreads or something tonight, I'm just going to restate that a member of the mafia has an ability which allows them to infiltrate quicktopics in some way, shape, or form. So be careful with discussing night actions.

[CT075]

##vote junko

idk if i'll be aroubd for phase end and i'd like this more than gp

[BBM]

You forgot to unvote first.

[MRDRHAWK]

##Unvote

##Vote: Junko

for consolidation purposes, in case Cam's vote didn't count

[charlie_]

Votals 1.7

Junko (5): Shinori, Shin, BBM, Camtech, Polydeuces

Green Poet (2): Euklyd, Eurykins,

Euklyd (2): Green Poet, FFM

Shin (1): Bluedoom

Not Voting (2): Junko, Refa

With 12 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. You have 2 hours left in the day.

As a reminder, failure to achieve a lynch will result in universal loss.

[FrostyFireMage]

##Unvote

##Vote: Junko

may as well

[Bluedoom]

##unvote ##vote :junko

using mobile so cant say much. Usual net down fsr

[charlie_]

Junko is at L-1!

[Elieson]

Votals 1.8
Junko (7): Shinori, Shin, BBM, Camtech, Polydeuces, FFM, bluedoom,
Green Poet (2): Euklyd, Eurykins,
Euklyd (1): Green Poet
Not Voting (2): Junko, Refa

With 12 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. You have a little over 70 minutes left in the day.

As a reminder, failure to achieve a lynch will result in universal loss.

[Shin]

You're getting pretty defensive over one vote, even when you're hardly the biggest wagon.

Will post more later.

For members of the audience unfamiliar with my Shin brand of humour, the first sentence was not intended to be taken seriously! I've spent the entire day at the hospital then making pies.