Etrian Odyssey 2 Mafia - Game Over

[Wen Yang]

It's possible. I only know that I succeeded at vigging Fluer, but no idea if she's already dead by the time I vigged her, of if the maf came after me.

[SB.]

Wen, do you have scumreads? Why didn't you vote for Fleur yesterday if you were confident enough to vig her?

[Grace]

Votals The First:

Green Poet (3): bearclaw, Shin, Eurykins

BBM (1): Refa

Elieson (1): BBM

bearclaw (1): Green Poet

Eurykins (1): SB

SB (1): Shinori

Not Voting (6): (Xinnidy), Flan, kirsche, Kopfjager, scorri, Elieson

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to hammer, 4 to lynch at deadline. There are 35 hours and 56 minutes left in the phase.

Edited February 15, 2014 by Curly Brace

[Wen Yang]

Well, for one, I was busy as heck the previous day phase, leading to my pretty-much-inactiveness. I didn't really read through the first day until the night phase started actually.

as for now... kinda hard to say, Eclipse's play was a touch unusual for me, but that;s based on games I;ve played with her from years ago, and now that she's subbed out I haven't really got any reads on her replacement yet.

[Shin]

##Unvote

I'm still not entirely sure what exactly happened at night, we have a list of what people have said but things still don't add up. I really don't like Green's play from D1, but the fact we have a hooker who's unwilling to come forward does kinda agree with scum trying to hit Green and ending up with SB. Theoretically SB could be scum, with a kill on GP which got blocked and redirected (if that's possible?), but I'm not sure why scum would hook someone they're trying to kill.

Another alternative mentioned by scorri is that Refa blocked BBM's kill, which is kinda plausible. However, I'm still not terrribly convinced of Wen's story, I'm still not buying the vig story and the almost entire lack of reads, inactivity or not, doesn't look great. I'd have been inclined to believe it if there were two kills present, but even then I'd be careful in case of an ITP.

##Vote: Wen

No real content the first day, which I can appreciate is a result of RL, but so far, I'm questioning the death of Fleur and the avoidance in offering any real reads.

[Eurykins]

Sleep feels so good, especially after losing a lot throughout the week. @_@;;

Gonna do this instead though.

##Vote: Eurykins

I already stated why I disliked eclipse's D1 play, and Eury's Kopf suspicion being the main one is just sort of lazy imo, she's just focussing in on one post and says "oh he's lurkscum" (1), her Poly suspicion was pretty much that he was inactive (2) and the Poet one seems kinda reactive to how he viewed her playerslot more than anything else. (3) Basically more opinions on why someone is scum without activity involved please.

I think I have way too many townreads.

1. You make it seem like lurking scum is not a known medium in playing this game. Vote-dropping early in a day phase and never reappearing again 'til the next one doesn't seem weird to you at all? Suspicious actions as such (especially if they figure that they're less-likely to be lynched based on the policy of 'let's lynch more active players VS. inactive ones') = little effort and practically coasting through the game with few to no contributions. So yeah, I'm going to focus on that if I see it.

2. Uh, I even acknowledged Bluedoom's cover for him, which is why his posts were limited? o_O The reason I stuck him on the list was due to the feelings/vibes/gut reads I was getting from his posts, as opposed to Bluedoom's (when he was subbing in for him temporarily). I don't see how my suspicion was solely based on the fact that he was 'inactive'.

3. Quite frankly, it wouldn't have mattered who he had chosen to tunnel on- it could've been Kirsche, Elie, Scorri- any of the people who posted sparsely on D1. The fact of the matter is that, of all the people who were active during that day phase, Poet seemed stuck on someone who was more inactive, and never seemed to put forth much else in terms of analyzing the others who were obviously around and posting in the thread. Why is that? The actions themselves is what makes them seem scummy to me, not the person involved with it (if that's what you were implying with 'how he viewed her playerslot'.)

Most telling thing in my defense is this - scum tried to roleblock me last night so that I would be unable to present the information I said I could deliver on D1. Unless someone is able to explain why this is not the case, their case on me contradicts the facts before us that ensure I am not scum. I have yet to see Shin, bearclaw or Eurykins address this, and yet they still voted me.

I admit that I didn't see the portion in which you were meant to be blocked (my mind yesterday was muddled beyond reason, so I was having some troubles deciphering what happened last night in terms of night actions; also forgot about how the driving ability/redirect ended up affecting matters). The only way I can see this happening is (if you're not town): if a scumbuddy chose to hit you with it as some sort of cover/alibi, or if town was trying to hit you with it. The redirect neither side could've predicted unless they were somehow in contact with said driver, so that still pulls up a few variables in terms of "do these actions qualify/nullify people as solid town or scum?".

So this kinda sucks. I'm still wary about Kop from D1 posts/actions, and still not sold with the vig shot claim. And now I'm questioning my vote on Poet due to the roleblocking shinanegans. Argh. D:

##Unvote

Still looking at Poet, Kop, and Poly, but now unsure of whose claims I do and don't trust. ;/

[Green Poet]

##Vote: Wen

I'm questioning the death of Fleur and the avoidance in offering any real reads.

I'm wondering about these as well.

Suppose Kopf is scum fakeclaiming vig. scum!Kopf can avoid having to kill scum simply by claiming roleblocked, since we know that there exists at least one scum hooker. Also, the fact that no one's counterclaimed vig introduces the possibility that there is no vig at all, which permanently protects scum!Kopf since neither town nor scum would have a reason to kill him.

Still, there's nothing so far that disproves that town!Kopf and scum both targeted Fleur, so I've got a null read on him for now.

Slightly bothered by Poly's reason for driving SB with me. I don't think he was as likely a target as myself for the NK, since I'd been the only claim alive. SB's a strong player, yes, but I don't understand why you'd prioritize meta over the claim in front of you. Saving SB also relies completely on your confidence that SB is actually town, which was supported only by D1 reads.

[MRDRHAWK]

ugh okay

so Eury's kinda bugging me with her Randy Orton-style "outta nowhere" suspicion of me, which is pretty much gutreads and inactivity

then again, I know Eury tends to think my meta is odd, so maybe she's just using meta too much

##Vote: DAS JAGER

Not liking how he claims to have no scumreads, yet chose to vig Fleur last night. I'm thinking something's up here, and he's playing lazy scum.

Slightly bothered by Poly's reason for driving SB with me. I don't think he was as likely a target as myself for the NK, since I'd been the only claim alive. SB's a strong player, yes, but I don't understand why you'd prioritize meta over the claim in front of you. Saving SB also relies completely on your confidence that SB is actually town, which was supported only by D1 reads.

Well, I don't know why Marth drove you, since he specifically wanted to target you last night. SB was reading more as town yesterday, and after re-reading him, still reads as town. As for you? That answer is not one that I myself have for you.

I'll ask Marth and get back to you with that. My guess is he probably got a scummy vibe from your posts, and decided to act on his read.

[SB.]

1. You make it seem like lurking scum is not a known medium in playing this game. Vote-dropping early in a day phase and never reappearing again 'til the next one doesn't seem weird to you at all? Suspicious actions as such (especially if they figure that they're less-likely to be lynched based on the policy of 'let's lynch more active players VS. inactive ones') = little effort and practically coasting through the game with few to no contributions. So yeah, I'm going to focus on that if I see it.

Lurkscum is a viable tactic but there were way more than Poly doing it and secondly he was literally banned for three days, hence the sub request, so it's not like he could've done anything about it.

2. Uh, I even acknowledged Bluedoom's cover for him, which is why his posts were limited? o_O The reason I stuck him on the list was due to the feelings/vibes/gut reads I was getting from his posts, as opposed to Bluedoom's (when he was subbing in for him temporarily). I don't see how my suspicion was solely based on the fact that he was 'inactive'.

What you said about Poly was:

"Poly - His post content stopped by page 6 or so... and not much else? Forgot about the Bluedoom sub. Overall (it feels weird to say this, but...), I had a better feel in terms of Bluedoom's posting/content than I did from Poly's own posts. Either lazy or busy, but null leaning not-so-clean from D1 shinanegans."

Considering that you later scumread him and the only thing you posted on Poly was about his inactivity, I'm not really sure how else it could've been interpretted besides gut.

3. Quite frankly, it wouldn't have mattered who he had chosen to tunnel on- it could've been Kirsche, Elie, Scorri- any of the people who posted sparsely on D1. The fact of the matter is that, of all the people who were active during that day phase, Poet seemed stuck on someone who was more inactive, and never seemed to put forth much else in terms of analyzing the others who were obviously around and posting in the thread. Why is that? The actions themselves is what makes them seem scummy to me, not the person involved with it (if that's what you were implying with 'how he viewed her playerslot'.)

This was probably a weak point, admittedly, but I would still like more opinions on people.

Well, I don't know why Marth drove you, since he specifically wanted to target you last night. SB was reading more as town yesterday, and after re-reading him, still reads as town. As for you? That answer is not one that I myself have for you.

i got so used to being antitown that i laughed when i saw this, but then i remembered i was actually town this game soooooo

@Poly, could you actually view SF during the night or did Marth have to send the action in?

[MRDRHAWK]

Nope. I couldn't do anything on SF during the suspension, so Marth sent in the action.

[BBM]

Sorry guys, I was out the entirety of yesterday.

Wen do you have any more vigshots? If so, it can be confirmed whether or not your first claimed kill was really just the mafia nightkill.

Scorri covered pretty well why it's pretty unlikely that GP is scum. That being said, I want to see more from Scorri. All her posts this just phase are just logic and facts, and while it's fairly sound, it's not difficult for mafia to post logic. And Scorri isn't normally someone who argues majorly off roles. Scorri, who is scum?

Eury's posts are sort of blah. I think SB covered it kind of well. I'm maybe not the best person to be saying this, but her reads are all really weak and leaning null.

[Eurykins]

Lurkscum is a viable tactic but there were way more than Poly doing it and secondly he was literally banned for three days, hence the sub request, so it's not like he could've done anything about it.

Oh. Herpderp. Did not know this/didn't realize it, so okay, that makes more sense. My mistake.

What you said about Poly was:

"Poly - His post content stopped by page 6 or so... and not much else? Forgot about the Bluedoom sub. Overall (it feels weird to say this, but...), I had a better feel in terms of Bluedoom's posting/content than I did from Poly's own posts. Either lazy or busy, but null leaning not-so-clean from D1 shinanegans."

*Bolded part was where I was more concerned, but yes, it is true that I felt he was also not posting a whole lot. So my wording (in terms of priority/why I was pulling a weird gut feeling from him) put his inactiveness as the more prominent point, which I'll agree with your point on there.

This was probably a weak point, admittedly, but I would still like more opinions on people.

That's fine. As far as I'm concerned, I'm getting my head out of the clouds and finally seeing this game/thread with a half-clear view of what's happened so far (instead of posting when I'm a walking corpse), so I'm probably going to re-read over the ISO's to get a better look into things.

[SB.]

Nope. I couldn't do anything on SF during the suspension, so Marth sent in the action.

Didn't Marth scumread me? Why would he want to protect me?

[MRDRHAWK]

I dunno he didn't tell me shit about who he was reading

[SB.]

Who suggested the action? You or him?

[MRDRHAWK]

He was going to drive BBM instead of you (he insisted on GP though), but I figured that you were town from what I'd read, so I asked him to drive you instead of BBM.

That was all the input I gave. I had no idea he'd been reading you as scum the whole time.

[Eurykins]

...Huh. Re-reading over a few things, it seems I missed a few things when I was tired.

-Kopfjager/Wen's case/ISO:

- Hardly does anything D1, aside from dropping a vote on RD near the end (justifying it by the general consensus that "a lynch on day 1, even misdirected, is better than a NL."

- D2: Claims to have vigged Fleur on the account of her being... too townie, thus ending up feeling scummy? (Unless I'm misinterpreting Kop's logic/reasoning.)

- Spends a few posts regarding "Considering if we had a doc" along with "What the doc would need to do in order to hit the right target." The end of the latter post results in redirecting interest of the possibility of the killer lying within the 2 claimed role blockers.

- The rest of the posts = more contemplation over "Did I vig Fleur alone and the NK not go through, or did the NK overlap with my kill?".

Looking back over both D1 and D2 posting/activity, I'm not so certain that I can clear Kop anymore. Not when I failed to consider the fact that he could be sitting as a third party or purely scum with that vig shot, and merely using the fact that he supposedly shot at her last night as means of town cred (if, even in itself, could even be considered town cred.)

In addition, the timing in which he posted the "Oops?" comment/claim to Fleur's death, it was around the time that the role claims/information was starting to come out. My guess/thoughts are that he was actually squirming to some extent, especially if someone had tracked him to Fleur's place and had seen him kill her. If someone had claimed to see him, then hooray, alibi sealed and the credibility is there, so long as he claims to have killed her prior to someone claiming to have seen him at her place.. If not, then there are no witnesses or otherwise means of information to contradict or pull up against his case/claim of having killed her. Imo, a win-win situation for him.

##Vote: Kopfjager

[Grace]

24 hours left in the phase. Votals will come later.

[BBM]

Eury's post spends a lot of time saying stuff that everyone already knows. I don't think that a single person here has ever tried to argue that Wen has made good posts. Neither I nor anybody else needs to read 15 lines about why Wen's posts suck. Why would a SK or mafia claim vig if they weren't? When the real vig could CC them or shoot them at night?

[SB.]

BBM: Safeclaims exist.

That said, I think we should leave that potential cc to do their job (or Wen claims he has a second shot or something) and should just lynch Eury instead, tbh.

[Green Poet]

Right now, the case on Eury's looking far more solid to me than the case on Kopf. Until someone CCs vig, which isn't likely whether or not they exist, or Kopf fails to kill a reasonably scummy target D2, there's nothing concrete that points to him as scum.

he could be sitting as a third party

If Kopf was SK, he should've just not said anything and let everyone think Fleur was the NK. I don't understand why he'd draw attention to himself at all, or even vote RD.

My guess/thoughts are that he was actually squirming to some extent, especially if someone had tracked him to Fleur's place and had seen him kill her. If someone had claimed to see him, then hooray, alibi sealed and the credibility is there, so long as he claims to have killed her prior to someone claiming to have seen him at her place.

Hold on... even if someone claimed to have tracked Kopf, and he claimed vig after that, no one could prove that he's not vig. And besides, vig has every reason not to claim until necessary.

However, I do agree that Kopf should give his reads. After an ISO of him, it seems that he's only offered thoughts about RD and eclipse, neither of whom are very relevant right now.

[Refa]

Fuck me, I thought there were like two days left. I guess that'll teach me to assume every timezone is reasonably close to my own...

Responding to BBM's response and his lurker reads post (heh, I did that too kind of).

-OK, so you found RD's initial vote bad.

-I don't really care if you ask questions, that would be stupid. My problem is that was all you were doing, without any actual thoughts on peoples' alignments anywhere until your case on me. That's actually pretty bad for associative reads, so yeah I would like you to elaborate more on your reads.

-To clarify, I'm not saying your posts after that are repetitive and weren't offering new content. It's more that you were just doing the same question asking thing but never actually posting any conclusions.

-Your comparison of Wen to Proto is off, though, at least from my experiences playing with Proto. ;\

-What more do you want me to say about Shin's RD case? I said what he complained about wasn't scummy and he exhibited pretty much the same behavior a few posts back (so it was hypocritical of him to find RD scummy for that), while I explained what I did find scummy about RD.

-Honestly agree with what he said about Elieson. It just seems weird that the only reason he'd be bothered by BBM was for well, RVS reasons.

Meh, these posts are making me feel better about BBM as a whole, plus well...you'll see.

##Unvote

Why do you think it's unlikely that the mafia killed Fleur? That's the second time you've said so without a reason behind it. If you were the mafia, who would you have killed?

How do you know I'm not Mafia

I just think it's unlikely that the vigilante and Mafia both shot the same person, especially considering they have an entirely different set of motivations. Like really, vigilante is supposed to shoot scum aligned players (or inactives, I dunno I've never been vig) while scum is supposed to shoot well...people that don't look scummy/have a power role. Doesn't it seem unlikely that they'd both be gunning for the same person?

Because honestly we had a vig claim saying they were the reason the person died last night.

Which means either scum idled(Lol doubt it.), Scum got blocked, or doctor saved. With how many role blocks we have honestly I feel that one of the roleblocks hit a scum.

I also feel that Green poet is very likely to be scum as well, but I'll have to read a few things and get caught up.

Other possibilities include the Vigilante lying, the Vigilante not really being a Vigilante, scum and Vigilante shooting the same person, etc. Also town only has one confirmed Roleblocker, I feel like the other one is scum because of lack of claim. Also I don't see why Green Poet is very likely scum, but I guess I'll have to see your next post to find out.

Claiming your action is great, that requires one post. You spent an extra twenty~ doing ????, all we have from your posts is your action and you being confused about roles I guess.

Why should I believe the claim of someone I believe to be scum? Scum!Follower is easily possible, scum!roleblocker is very common. Use your role to defend yourself all you want, I'll vote you for scummy actions anyway.

Fun fact- Town is more likely to spam post than scum. Try and prove me wrong. Also her claim is legit, at least the Follower part. Don't get why you're so bothered by this...

General comments, fuck the quote blocks:

-Shin's first post (? First one after where I started reading, wherein he votes GP) is pretty good overall. I don't like his GP vote because it seems like he's just fervently sticking to his D1 case without taking into consideration stuff that's happened in the meantime though.

-Agree with SB's BBM read, honestly. There are people who are bothering me more though. Like bearclaw.

-Agree that Eurykins suspicions are lazy. Like generally as town I find she makes cases I don't really agree with, but being most suspicious of the laziest players seems well...off. Eh, I guess that sort of behavior lets lurk scum get by, I don't even know. She's a null read for me.

-I don't get how one of SB/GP are likely scum, Shinori. Explain, please.

-Do you think Wen is ITP or Mafia, Shin?

-Eurykins, I don't get why you have inactives high on your lynch priority list yet are complaining that GP had inactives high on her lynch priority list D1.

For now,

##Vote: bearclaw

He's the one who's been bothering me the most, I'll have an ISO up on him shortly. Man, I have more town reads than scum reads too, I'll be so mad if it turns out most of the lurkers are scum, because honestly that's the impression I'm getting here.

SB, can you clarify your Eurykin read? I just kind of uh...skimmed through everything because fuck 5 pages of content.

[SB.]

eclipse had bad content d1 and eurykins basically posted a massive wall of nullreads and then half her scumreads were basically based on gut or inactivity and the kopf wagon doesn't really make me feel good at all.

[SB.]

In addition, the timing in which he posted the "Oops?" comment/claim to Fleur's death, it was around the time that the role claims/information was starting to come out. My guess/thoughts are that he was actually squirming to some extent, especially if someone had tracked him to Fleur's place and had seen him kill her. If someone had claimed to see him, then hooray, alibi sealed and the credibility is there, so long as he claims to have killed her prior to someone claiming to have seen him at her place.. If not, then there are no witnesses or otherwise means of information to contradict or pull up against his case/claim of having killed her. Imo, a win-win situation for him.

also i hate to tell you this but like

the tracker is kind of dead

[Refa]

Also regarding the votals, how the hell are there so many people who aren't voting? Why is noone bothered by this? Obviously Xinnidy doesn't count because sub, and I'm not interested in lynching a claimed vigilante even if Kopfjager's play has been rather lame, but everyone else I'm going to look into more. Could be scum. Here's my general thoughts on the playerbase before I do MORE ISO's WHY IS IT ALWAYS WITH THE ISO'S DAMMIT.

Town

Refa

Green Poet

SB

scorri

Flan

Kopfjager

Null

Shinori

Eurykins

Shin

BBM

Scum

kirsche

Elieson

bearclaw

Not Playing

Xinnidy