SullyMcGully
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Posts posted by SullyMcGully
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@Michelaar
Yes, I did sheep you and Bart on the Shinori case. But there were other cases on D1 where I created my own arguments: my first Mack case, my old BBM case, and my prims case (while I didn't vote until after kirsche and Gaius, I made my case beforehand). You can call me out on some of my logic being poor, I've already admitted to that. But saying I'm only using other people's arguments makes it all the more clear to me that you haven't really been reading very closely.
What is it about the Baldrick case that you aren't understanding, anyway? It's a major wagon at the moment, you might want to form a stronger opinion on it. If you think it's illogical, mind explaining why?
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Leanne
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I'm still not feeling Michelaar. He really seems like he isn't paying much attention, but he's at least trying to make reads. His attitude is way too reactive right now and of course it makes him look scummy but I think he's really just zoned out. Like, he doesn't know what the case on Mack is and he doesn't seem to understand the one on Baldrick, and then his primary suspects are me, and Shinori (with Baldrick, kinda just sitting there without a good explanation) but I don't think his cases on either of us are very good. That doesn't seem scummy to me though, compared to Michelaar's Kemono Friends play.
Mack, I'll just say it: your case on Baldrick sucks. Your posts are long-winded but they contain very little original material. It looks like you're finding different ways of making the same cases everybody else has made. There's a little bit of new material in there, but not enough to merit how long your posts are. So you're basically sheeping, but of course if you just said "I'm sheeping everyone on Baldrick" that would seem scummy coming from someone under suspicion.
@Mack I'll ask you again: why did you think my case on you day 1 was good?
I'm still sold on this idea of a Baldrick-Mack scum team. Even though Mack is now on the Baldrick wagon, isn't that what you would expect when they're under suspicion of working together? Nothing like this happened in the Kemono Friends game, so I don't really know how scum usually acts about this kind of thing.
@ experienced players: when two of the scum are suspected of being on a team together, how do they usually react to throw off suspicion without lynching a teammate?
@ Michelaar your case on me uses a lot of the same logic that BBM used in his case on me D1. A lot has changed since then, care to provide an example of how I am currently "lift(ing) on other player(s) to explain (my) cases"?
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This looks awesome. Not enough FE5 hacking out there, but this looks pretty neat. Could you potentially explain which FE5 mechanics are being altered for this (are you keeping in 1-99 HIT etc.)?
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You make me sleepy... or maybe it's just the time...
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It's 1 o'clock where I'm at zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Okay I'm turning in for the night. Baldrick and Mack: my hunch about you two hasn't let up and I've felt like your last two posts were exceptionally weak. Especially you, Mack, I know I sound like a broken record and that my reasoning wasn't that great the first time around but it's starting to really sound like you want to use Michelaar as lynchbait. While I can't really defend him seeing as he's not posting, something about the fact that it's you pointing out his scummy appearance after multiple people here have pointed out that you might be taking advantage of him, just doesn't sit very well with me. I understand you both probably have more to say, and I'll look at that tomorrow. For now though, I still suspect both of you, but I think Mack seems to be the scummier of the pair.
Unvote
Vote: Mackc2
And my lynch priority for right now is
Mackc2>Baldrick>>>>>>>>>>Michelaar>Bartozio>Shinori>Marth>BBM>kersch>via>>>Refa
Everything except for Mackc2 and Baldrick being scummy and Refa being
awesometown is gut feeling and the opinions of others, so I won't go into detail on that.Michelaar where are you?
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...joins the cult of Duma, turns Delthea into a witch. With her new powers, Delthea then...
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One more dumb question (sorry I know I'm like a noob question machine-gun today):
I know the Kemono Friends game had a jailer. Do these games usually have a jailer? Is it more of a 50/50 kind of thing? I guess what I'm really asking is, what percent of NOC games have jailers in them?
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I see my online self as an extension of my in-person self, which means my personal code of self-conduct (the "Stonewall Jackson" initiative (I named it when I was twelve)) applies just as much here as it does anywhere else. So that means no lying, no intentional offensiveness, and always keeping my commitments. However, my in-person self is a very flawed person, so I'm sure my online self has flaws too. However, I try to be a "good person" online and I don't feel like I've done anything particularly bad (yet).
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When the scum team uses a janitor, do they get to see what the victims role was?
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4 minutes ago, Refa said:
Sorry about that, I'll try harder to die tonight after I lynch scum.
Please don't die Refa how will I make it without you?4 minutes ago, Refa said:-Sully, what are you getting out of your night kill analysis? It's not bothering me, but I'm seeing multiple conclusions and no opinion on which one is more likely. Just because they're all possibilities doesn't mean they're all equally likely.
In retrospect, that was really more me getting all of the options rolling around in my head set in stone. I might should have kept it to myself... but after some review, I think it is most likely that Prims was killed because he was a good player and there was potentially someone protecting you (actually, given his refusal to roleclaim, Prims could have very well been protecting you as a jailer or something). While he was going to have a rough time of it today after Gaius flipped town, I think that with his skill he could've regained our trust, and during his last posts with us he was already reading into multiple current suspects, including Baldrick, Mack, and Bart. If any of those three were on the scum team (and it seems highly likely that at least one of them is) they might've felt threatened by him, and if they thought this game had a jailer (what are the chances of that, anyway?) they might've gone for the less obvious target.
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Looking at Baldrick's latest post, the way he says "I don't know Mack very well" just seems off to me. I feel like Baldrick could be trying to avoid making a real judgement on Mack. I'm currently re-reading to look for evidence for a joint Baldrick-Mack scum team, but two questions while I do:
@Baldrick What's your opinion on Mack? Is he scummy or not?
@Mack What's your opinion of Baldrick? Is he scummy or not?
If you aren't on a team, you should have some halfway decent answers.
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It would seem Michelaar has been having a serious case of "active lurking", then. I'm looking forward to hearing what he has to say, I just get this feeling he really hasn't posted any opinions... like, at all. Almost everything he's posted has been in response to something else, I know this is his normal playstyle but I'd like to think that he's improved on that front.
@Michelaar yesterday I asked if you had any reads, you never answered. Do you have any reads today (and please have good ones I'm not down for mislynching you again)?
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Vig = Vigilante Daykill, right?
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So the Prims kill really confuses me. I came into today highly suspicious of Prims after LG flipped town, and then I find that he's dead. I was expecting Refa, or maybe via or kersch but especially Refa, since they seemed to be the overall most trusted people around here and were contributing the most to the town. I came up with a list of scenarios in which it would make sense for the scum to kill Prims instead of Refa:
1) Refa is scum and mafia does not kill its own.
2) Mafia assumes that if Refa doesn't die, people will suspect him and potentially lynch him.
3) Mafia assumes that somebody has a Night 1 protection power, which would probably be used on Refa.
The problems here are that:
1) Refa has been a very observant and consistent poster, with many questions and very good insight. If Refa is scum, he's really, really good at it.
2) Why would Mafia hope people would suspect Refa and then kill someone people already suspected? Prims had a fair chance of being lynched today (as kersch's case shows).
3) This is OK, but it still doesn't explain: Why Prims? via, kersch, and, to a lesser extent, marth all had fairly low suspicion on them at the end of the day, if any of them were townies they would have been an okay kill, and they can't all be scum. Well, I guess they can, but that seems unlikely.
Here are a few more reasons, for why they would want Prims dead in particular:
1) Prims is an experienced player, at the end of D1 suspicion on him was abating, he could probably have dodged getting lynched today if he played his cards right.
2) Killing any of the other options would cast suspicion on a specific member of the mafia.
3) Prims was mafia, and the rest of the mafia are in a position where they would be exposed if he was lynched today and his card was flipped.
I really don't know what to make of this, and perplexing myself over it isn't getting me any reads, so I suppose I'll look back over what people have already said.
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Dang it BBM, you just took half of my Baldrick case!
So yeah, Baldrick. He was pretty strong at the beginning of the game but got more passive as things progressed. Here's my problem with it all. At the beginning, Baldrick was the primary person who pressured me into making that rushed Mack read. See this post:
On 11/28/2017 at 8:37 PM, Baldrick said:I know there's not much material to go off, but either make your best guess or question someone to try and get more material. As I said before, weak reads don't bother me, but not having any reads or making any effort to get them bothers me.
Remember the bolded part, I come back to that later. This is the same pressure he exerted on Ken, which played a major role in getting that wagon started. When I first saw Baldrick going around putting pressure on people like this, I assumed he was probably town pushing for answers, maybe he had irrational expectations for everyone, but he didn't seem like scum. However, things changed as the game progressed, until we got this post:
On 11/30/2017 at 12:00 AM, Baldrick said:I'll admit that I've lost motivation as the day goes on, because a Ken lynch seems inevitable to me based on how D1 typically goes, and since he's not around I can't make any progress.
But, if he's getting a sub I wouldn't really want to lynch them before they acclimatise. So @ people who are willing to lynch him now, would you prefer somebody subs in? If so, I'll pursue other options because I can't guarantee I'll be around at deadline.
Remember the bolded part from the first post? They seem to contrast each other, in the beginning he was all like "everybody should try to get reads" but later he says that he's "lost motivation" to pretty much do that very thing. This hypocrisy (that's a bit of a strong word, but you get the idea) really discards however much I townread him early on, because apparently, he doesn't practice what he preaches. Or at least that's how it comes across to me.
##Vote: Baldrick
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So we don't get a card flip on night kills? That makes things harder.
Alright, a new day. After reading through yesterday's posts again, I figured I would go ahead and start off with some opinions on all of the players. I'll get around to Prims' death after this, I've got a fair bit to figure out about that.
@Baldrick: I've got an entire post on you coming.
@Bartozio: I'll second Kirsche on how early those first Ken votes were. I'm developing a case for you, but you aren't my primary suspicion.
@BBM: I'm fairly satisfied with your late day 1 content. I'm letting you off the hook for now.
@kirsche: You haven't done anything that makes me suspicious of you yet, but I still think there's a fair chance that you're scum. You haven't convinced me either way yet.
@Mackc2: Some of the suspicion being thrown your way is merited, I'll have to study your case a little bit more. I asked you a question Day 1, figured you may have missed it so here it is again: Why did you think my read on you was good? I thought it sucked.
@Magnificence Incarnate: You're a lot like kirsche, you don't have enough presence for me to get a strong reading on you.
@Michelaar: Something about you is striking me in a funny way, you haven't contributed very much other than defending yourself and its bothering me. I'll look into that more later.
@Refa: Before Prims died, you were my strongest townread. I kinda thought you were everybody else's strongest townread also, so why didn't you die last night? I'll discuss this in depth later.
@Shinori: I'm good with you. While your Bart case has its merits, it isn't the strongest I've ever seen, but it doesn't strike me as scummy either. You've eased my suspicion... for now.
@via: You were my second strongest townread and you didn't die last night either. Maybe I'm missing something.
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Hey. You tryin' to pick a fight with our thread?
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TBH, I like Portal a lot more than Half-Life, which is why it sucks that any chances of a Portal 3 are held up while Valve delays Half-Life 3 for the gazillionth time.
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In 112 years, people will analyze my previous post and realize I meant "we" as a society, not "we" as a group of nerds on the internet.
FE Name Game
in Forum Games
Posted
Davros
Speaking of which, am I the only one who thinks the word "Davros" (the name of Captain Fargus's pirates in FE7) could be an early translation of Darros, the pirate from FE1?