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SullyMcGully

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Posts posted by SullyMcGully

  1. 21 hours ago, SoulWeaver said:

    I'm freaking out over the possibility of losing Smash Flash 2 - one of the best games I've ever played on the comp. There are a couple older Artix Entertainment games I might be sad to lose, like DragonFable, but AQWorlds is getting a server rewrite to deal with the change so I'll survive.

    Smash Flash 2 is my favorite, but I have it downloaded and have lots of people I can play it with in my house. So I'll get by.

  2. Go for Archer. His high point is that he's incredibly strong once trained, often times doing more damage with one shot than some characters do with two, but with his abysmal speed and skill, he's not well suited for direct combat and he really needs Curved Shot from the iron bow. He's really good once you get him trained up though, and he can even OHKO Mogalls eventually.

  3. 15 minutes ago, BBM said:

    ok so might as well out this because it doesn't really have any role impact- Via, Refa, Michelaar, and I have been in a neighbourhood QT since the start of N1. Mich/Elie haven't really posted anything in it, but the rest of us have been discussing the game a lot in there (I think we're up to almost 250 posts), and it's mostly all content, not spam. Like Paper said it's a lot harder to fake content and a town perspective when you're talking non-stop so Refa would have to be moling next-level if he's scum.

    Is neighborhood QT a mafia thing or a city-slicker thing I don't know about yet? I thought this game didn't allow talking about it outside the thread.

  4. 28 minutes ago, Quote said:

    actually I have a few questions for sully

    do you have any examples of interactions between refa and I that would suggest a scumteam between us? it was weird you just kinda threw that out there as a possibility but never really followed up on it, and now you're voting kirsche.

    I didn't see much (like I said, paranoia) but the thing that I noticed most was the way you agreed. You never really argued much, you just corrected each other's opinions. I saw a lot of situations where Refa would say "via, what do you think of such-and-such" and you would reply with your opinion and then he'd be like "that's what I thought". 

    It made it look like you were validating each other by agreeing with each other. So that someone could say, "well, I don't think via is scum because he and Refa are on the same page" or something like that. 

    I put the possibility of Refa being scum at about 5%. You're just a little bit higher than that. When I made that read, I didn't really think there was anything there, but since the two of you were the strongest townreads, I wanted to put the idea out there and see if anybody else thought there was anything suspicious about you. 

  5. 5 hours ago, kirsche said:

    Pretty sure he was sheeping me both times except for the wrong reasons.

    So in other words, I voted for the same people you voted for, but with my own reasons? Is that still technically sheeping? The BBM vote had nothing to do with what you said, I thought his voting patterns were fine but I thought he was under-contributing. Heck, I don't even remember why you voted BBM in the first place. I voted Prims because I disliked how he wanted to hammer Ken, as if he didn't like the other cases being made at the time. 

    @BBM: Let me put it this way. Right now I'm about 70% sure that Kirsche is scum. That other 30% bothers me, but he's still more suspicious than anybody else here. 

  6. ##Unvote

    ##Vote: Kirsche

    @Bartozio That felt very safe, but you technically did answer my questions, and I can't deny anything you said, so I'll just be content with that for now. You're still my second-highest scumread behind Kirsche, though. I think you're more likely to be scum than Elieson or Marth, and I'm townreading everyone else. 

    TBH, I can see why you get mislynched all of the time if that's your general approach to playing mafia, though. I can understand not having time and dealing with timezones, but frankly it irks me that you avoid suspicion via infrequent posting rather than frequent, good posts. Like, if you were mafia, how would I be able to see it in your behavior with so little to go off of? I guess there's no good answer to that question.

    One thing you didn't comment on is the sheeping. Do you think you don't sheep votes frequently, or do you think that it's understandable that you do because you don't have time to make your own cases?

    And what's with the last part? Do you think it was a mistake for me to ask you what I did, because I feel like my questions and your answers have cleared a few things up for the town as a whole.

  7. Wow. Thanks for that. I'm pretty sure it's illegal, but you just made my day.

    In other news, I'm not highly suspicious of Elieson. Reading back over the thread I can kinda see Shinori and Michelaar being on a team together, but I still feel like that would take qualities of patience and self-control they lack. I know Michelaar from other places around the forums, and the way he reacts to Shinori is exactly how he would react to anybody directing an angry post towards him. And while Elieson's posts so far have been pretty bad, they also don't feel very well thought-out. Any of us here can point out a post we made that wasn't very well thought-out and looked scummy as a result. Anyway, Elieson's supposed to be some sort of pro at this, so he'll probably have something better for us to go off of later.

  8. @via You continue to have a problem with my night-kill analyses (which I am now calling "NKA's"). Look, I know they look like neutral content and are therefore scummy, but to be frank, I like them. I like making them. It helps me feel like I'm finding a way to contribute to town using logic, which, for me, is a much stronger suit than intuition. Do you find my NKA's to be incorrect? If so, please show me how. But the mere fact that I make them doesn't make me anti-town. Provided they are a source of correct information, I believe they benefit town, and allow us to put a night's conclusions out in the open instead of keeping them locked up in the back of our minds. At least that's how it feels for me. So regardless of how scummy they look, you can depend on another NKA tomorrow morning. Provided I'm alive, that is. Really just because I enjoy them, and enjoy making them. And the point of playing a game is to have fun, not win.

    Unless there's money involved. If there's money involved, do everything within your means to win.

  9. The more Kirsche defends himself, the more cracked his defense looks. But thinking back, that's exactly how it felt with Baldrick's defense. When we added enough pressure, it was like he snapped and started throwing out every possible alternative he could find. That made me more convinced of his scumminess, and more surprised when he flipped town. Thinking back to the Kemono Friends game, the same thing happened with Arcanite and Greencapps. They both snapped when the pressure got too hard, looked like desperate scum, and ended up narrowly avoiding mislynches due to various shenanigans. Thinking about this has made me consider a few things. Is there really a difference between desperate scum and desperate town? If there is, what does it look like?

    Of course I think Kirsche's latest responses have seemed scummy. I just don't want to have another mislynch like Baldrick. I could've sworn he was scum. I remember BBM saying there was a 95% chance of it. I'm honestly surprised at how things turned out, and I don't really want to bet whatever amount of trust people here place in me on Kirsche definitely being scum either. 

  10. @Bartozio you seem to have a habit of ignoring arguments against you. So I want you to respond to this one, specifically. 

    Your case for the D1 Ken/LG wagon wasn't the best. Even Prims pointed that out. Your posting throughout D2 was sporadic and upon rereading, I could not find a single time you voted for  anyone without heavily relying on other's opinions. That includes your hop onto the Baldrick wagon. Even now, your above post is really just an expansion of a previous post by BBM. I also could not find a single time in which you defended yourself from D2 onward. This is not hyperbole, I reread and could not find you defending yourself at all. Kirsche voted you early D2 over your Ken/LG vote, and you ignored it. I voted you earlier today and you ignored that as well. Overall you have not posted very much, and unlike other sporadic posters, you've never offered any sort of excuse for being unable to contribute. 

    I find the fact that you avoid participating in conversations where you are implicated to be scummy. You've ignored almost every post where someone was suspicious of you, yet it isn't because you don't get suspected that much: hardly anybody has townread you in the entire game. You are always being considered a potential member of scumteams but you have nothing to say about that.  

    I also find your lack of strong or original opinions to be scummy as well. The most impactful thing you have done in this game has been using your role and jumping to the conclusion that Marth is an SK. Most of your posts are passing comments during quiet periods, but when serious discussion is going on you are noticeably absent. The posts you do have are more summaries or expansions upon the content of others than original concepts. What bothers me especially about this is that people are accusing me of sheeping while you pretend that you aren't doing the same thing. 

    I'm not certain that you're scum. But it occurs to me that while you've hardly ever been townread in this game, you have yet to be put under any notable pressure. If you were forced to defend yourself the way Baldrick and Kirsche have been, how well would you handle it? I intend to find out, if you choose not to enlighten me.

    If you don't respond to this post satisfactorily, then you will become more suspicious to me than Kirsche. However, to make build up the pressure:

    ##Unvote

    ##Vote: Bartozio

  11. 11 minutes ago, kirsche said:

    I'm saying what people are saying is wrong because it is wrong. Saying I was particularly suspicious or very "anti baldrick" D1 is wrong, saying I was defending Baldrick by not wanting to commit to a lynch 24 horus into the day on someone I had never read is wrong, saying I was defending you by asking opinions about where you had been coached is wrong. These are factually incorrect statement that are being used to forge scumreads of me. Were they not wrong Sully? Please point out to me how these statements or impressions were correct.

    Okay, so the last two things you mentioned there were things I never actually said. I did say you were "anti-Baldrick" because you were one of the first to raise that point and you pretty much kept at him in some way or another from then on. However, I never said anything about your other two points. I've never seen a good time for a hammer in this game, and agreeing with the third one would be like me outright saying I'm scum. Are you asking me for my opinion on something BBM said? Because I'm not scumreading you on either of those last two things and would disagree with those who do.

    1 hour ago, kirsche said:

    My Sully case wasn't the most indepth, it isn't nearly as complex and well thought out as my case on you, but dismissing the reasons that I have made and saying that "I barely had a Sully case" just frankly isn't true. I have my reasons for it, part of it is PoE, but I believe that he has bad interactions with our flipped scum, had made bad votes all through the game including but not limited to this jump on me. Are these reasons bad reasons for calling someone scum? Are they scummy reasons?

    I find the bolded part interesting. Your case on me may have been poor, but I don't think what you have on BBM is much better. It's not that you don't raise any points, and I'll admit that you've made me reconsider my opinions on BBM, but this case lacks convincing power. As someone who has sheeped a few cases throughout this game, I can at least tell the strong ones from the weak ones, and yours is pretty weak. Maybe all of that stuff about BBM is true, but there's a fair chance it isn't. And while I'm sure it must be stressful for you under all the pressure you are currently under, I just don't see how that merits all of this... certainty. I dare say I've made a case or two that is stronger than yours, and I wouldn't call any of them complex or well-thought out. You seem desperate to pass off a loose assortment of ideas as undeniable fact, and it isn't making it any more believable.

    Also, I don't plan on defending BBM that much because he can probably do a much better job of it than I can, but allow me to say one thing: I don't blame him for waffling on Shinori. He very well could have done that for the same reason that I never had much of an opinion on him. Shinori's (and also Michelaar's) tone was too aggressive and emotional for me to really understand what was supposed to be logical and what was supposed to be a rant, so I ended up with multiple confusing reads which I decided not to post because they were all so minor. It's hard to say "Shinori is scummy because he overreacted to this" when he overreacts to everything and is proud of it.

    @kirsche: you aren't caught up on rereading, how about recent history? Do you think there was anything scummy in that exchange between Bartozio, Marth, and Elieson?

    @everyone currently suspecting Elieson: do you think the Shinori/Michelaar hatematch could have been faked?

    @Elieson: how is it that I actually think Michelaar was doing a better job at being inconspicuous than you?

  12. ##Unvote

    ##Vote: kirsche

    So suddenly saying that everything everyone else thinks is suddenly wrong or suspicious seems like desperate scum to me. Especially BBM: since when were you suspicious of him? That came out of nowhere. Maybe you've mentioned him somewhere and I haven't noticed, but the last time you cased BBM was D1.

    I honestly think BBM's townplay is pretty good.. I didn't see his Shinori stance as being that waffling, waffling was to be expected dealing with Shinori. BBM never really let up pressure, despite having few strong points against Shinori he had points against Shinori at times when mafia could have easily chosen other targets. 

    And of course I 180'd on you. I My townread on you was strong because you were strongly anti-Baldrick and my suspicion of Baldrick was very strong. I figured when Baldrick flipped scum, I'd be able to prove your innocence based off of that. Now, that all means nothing, and I must re-evaluate things. 

     

  13. Sully’s NKA (Night-Kill Analysis):

    Last night, three players died. These were Town Interrogator Mackc2, hidden Town Vanilla PaperBlade, and Mafia Janitor Shinori. I’ll begin my analysis with Shinori.
    Shinori died under mysterious circumstances last night. According to Bartozio, Marth targeted Shinori last night, suggesting that it may have been Marth’s actions that brought about Shinori’s demise. However, Marth showed very little suspicion concerning Shinori before last night, so if Marth killed Shinori, it was potentially as a serial killer. Marth has so far denied all accusations.

    @elieson: I believe it would be a mistake to think that Marth and Bartozio’s claims are incompatible. Suppose Marth is a town cop who investigated Shinori last night not knowing Shinori would be dead the next morning. This would make some sense, as Marth might’ve wanted to confirm one of his townreads. Bartozio would see that as Marth targeting Shinori, and when Shinori turned up dead, it would seem suspicious. However, there still is a fair chance that one or both of them could be lying. Anyway, it would be pointless for me to defend Marth before he even defends himself.

    Now for Mackc2 and his hidden pal, PaperBlade. They were an obvious target. So obvious that Mack himself asked for protection tonight. He apparently didn’t get it. Why is this? Here are some potential scenarios:
    1)    There is no town doctor/jailer in this game.
    2)    The town doctor/jailer’s protection powers only work once, or on certain nights.
    3)    The town doctor/jailer was Prims, who died without a card flip.
    4)    The town doctor/jailer did not want to protect Mack/PB for whatever reason.

    Of all of the above reasons, I believe 2 and 3 are the most likely. In the Kemono Friends game, Mack, as a jailer, could only use his powers on even-numbered nights. Maybe the protection agent in this game can only act on odd nights, or can only act once. Prims acted defensive about revealing his role on D1, so maybe he was a doctor who wanted to stay hidden. It would explain why One-Shot Mafia Janitor Shinori hid Prims card flip; so that town would go on believing there was still a live protection agent out there. This would also explain why scum went after Mack tonight instead of a less obvious target; they knew that the doctor/jailer who would most likely have protected him was dead.

    Also worth noting is that if Marth is an SK, he might’ve been able to kill somebody N1. The fact that he didn’t means that either:
    1)    He’s not an SK.
    2)    He’s an SK, but his role did not allow him to kill anyone N1.
    3)    He’s an SK, but whoever he tried to kill was being protected.

    If Marth did not kill Shinori, then likeliness has it a Town Vigilante (or other SK) did. If it’s a vig, then they would be compelled to reveal their action before allowing a Marth lynch to go through, as we are running short of townies in this game and lynching another one could be near fatal if there is a 4-person scum team (on that subject, if Marth is an SK then the scum team is probably an ordinary three-person team because of balancing issues). Therefore, this Marth vote is fairly safe, unless there is another SK. 

    ##Unvote
    ##Vote: Magnificence Incarnate

    The actual reasoning for this vote is simple. I am thoroughly unsatisfied with Marth’s reaction to Bartozio’s accusation so far, and I want to hear a better defense.

    Analysis end.

  14. So wait a second: if an SK isn't for town or mafia, what's their goal? Try to be the last one alive? Does town have to kill SKs as well as scum in order to officially win the game? 

    I suppose if there's an additional non-town member in this game, that decreases the chance that there are more than three mafioso... provided Bart is telling the truth.

    My upcoming NK analysis is going to be a bit more interesting now...

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