I think the Alear's have the biggest chance of falling lower. Mainly because I can see the voters uniting under 1 and the other falls out completely just a question of which it happens to imo. I see the male race being less contested so I can see Alear voters focusing on male Alear this year.
With Engage specifically I think the top 2 of each gender probably are not as head of their compatriots as you might expect and it's probably tight race so I think it's still likely anyone race within the top 20 candidates race.
So I think it's going to come down to if the Alear factions coordinate and what that does for the likes of Veyle, Ivy, Goldmary and Yunka.
Not seeing Bernie winning this year because I still think people are a bit anti-three houses but I do think people will be more open to a houses winner on cyl 9