DarkAlf

A big thank you to @Diovani Bressan for linking my VG predictor! I've actually made two versions - he linked version A (link), and here is the link to version B. There's no difference between them, but sometimes one will stop working for some inexplicable reason, so if one fails, you have the other to fall back on. Something you'll notice after the first hour is that a name will be colored magenta at the top of the "Raw data" sheet. That person is "Team Feathers" for that round, and it's determined solely by the lowest percentage in the first hour. Enjoy! If you see any issues with either predictor, please let me know!

Link to my orb and banner spreadsheet here Discuss away!

If I have accounted for everything correctly, we have at least 299 orbs this month, excluding what we'll get from Golden Week and extra Tier 21 orbs. I don't know if I've accounted for Tap Battle 100% correctly, but that's the best estimate I have. We should easily cross 300 orbs for the month. My updated orb and banner sheet.

Discuss away!

Male Grima wins! Top 1K overall and just barely missed top 10K for my army in the final round. For those of you who used my predictor - what did you think of it? I welcome all feedback and constructive criticism. It appears both sides get an endurance multiplier if the margin is less than 1%, other than the very first hour. I assume this is to get us out of same hell faster. The predictor you folks have access to account for this yet, which threw some of the predictions towards the end of the final round significantly off. There is also apparently no "afterglow", i.e. increased votes after a disadvantage multiplier, unlike with the old system, so I'll have to eliminate that. I have been working on a newer version privately that does account the endurance multiplier when it's same hell, and it seems to run a lot better and give better predictions. A lot of work will need to be done to hopefully get the predictions within 10% of the actual value. Thank you again @Diovani Bressan for sharing the link to the predictor, and I look forward to the next VG, when I hope it will work a bit better!

Are you unable to see the separate tabs? The one you're on is the "raw data" tab; the matches are on their own tabs to the right. EDIT: Try this link. It's switched to HTML view, so hopefully that's a little easier to see.

Before, you could spend 5/10/50/100/200 flags. They changed it to 5/10/25/50/100 in one battle, and you can spend up to 8 times that, so 40/80/200/400/800. 800 is the maximum you can spend in 1 hour since it takes 1 hour for a single ballot to charge up. And it appears it'll stay that way for possibly the entire match. I aggressively increased the multipliers for the final couple of hours since I reckon there will be tons of folks unloading 800 flags or more during those final hours.

Let's see how things change with this new Voting Gauntlet. I'm Team Feathers as always. I alluded to it a couple of times before, but I'd like to announce a new Voting Gauntlet predictor. If Reddit can have one, why not us? For posterity, here is the link. Explanation for why I developed it and how it works in the spoiler space below: Big thanks go to @Alkaid, @Astellius, @Azuris, @daisy jane, @Maaka, @Mau, @mampfoid and @Landmaster for testing the predictor out the last 3 events! Also, thank you to @Diovani Bressanfor putting the link on the first post! Enjoy this predictor! If you have any feedback or constructive criticism, please let me know!

If I have accounted for all orbs correctly, assuming no changes to Grand Conquests and Tempest Trials and no unannounced events, we will finish this month with 278 orbs, excluding extra orbs from making/maintaining tier 21 in Arena, the lowest total for a month since November 2017 (263 that month). Here is the link to my orb and banner calendar to look at what we're expecting over the next few weeks.

List of events: Grand Hero Battle - Rutger: March 11 Grand Conquests: March 14 Movement type quests: March 16 Special Heroes banner: March 19 Bound Hero Battle rerun: Ishtar and Reinhardt: March 20 Tempest Trials: March 23 New Bound Hero Battle: Bartre & Fire: March 26 Mythic Hero Battle: March 29 Voting Gauntlet: April 1 (no joke!) Grand Hero Battle revival: Garon: April 3 Anima Blessing quests: April 6 New Heroes banner: April 10

I finally develop a new predictor for the Voting Gauntlet for you folks to use starting the next event (here is the link if you want to look at my template) that is quite different from the one on Reddit, and now this change comes. If we get a stamina system like with Grand Conquests, there would be little reason to cast Battle Ballots early on except to burn them when you have (nearly) the maximum number available. There is every incentive to try to save them for the big 7.0+ multipliers for maximum score - it will indeed be very swingy at the end if true. I honestly think it'll be just 2 ballots per hour and you can use both of them at once at any time during the hour, which is a great change if true. It really is tiring having to check the phone/tablet every 30 minutes to battle; at least now hopefully you'll only need to check once an hour. I would also think the ballots won't carry over to other hours, otherwise I think we'll have absolute chaos at the end of each round for each battle. Imagine if you can carry ballots over to later rounds....

My armies: Saias, then Lewyn, then Soren. Yes, I'm proud to be a feather mercenary. Overall rank: 33 Top 1K first round, top 5K second round, top 5K final round I have a big announcement: I've developed a new Voting Gauntlet predictor, which I'll present to everybody here in the next edition of the event. I've had several folks here in the forum test it out during this run to make sure it works fine. The one on Reddit has some rather glaring issues that I hope mine at least somewhat corrects. I won't claim that it's better, but it nailed down the general pattern for the final 8 hours of the event: same hell for exactly 3 hours, then ping-ponging to the end with Morgan winning. Congrats to everyone in Team Morgan!

Hour 1 numbers: Katarina: 5,749,658 Lewyn: 13,501,827 Morgan (F): 19,558,746 Saias: 990,144 (you read that correctly - not even 1 million!) Cecilia: 4,740,360 Jagen: 1,035,223 Innes: 4,059,372 Soren: 7,132,032 Gee - I guess Saias is Team Feathers... Time to join!

February 25-March 3

Top 5 for each color: Red: 1. Halloween Myrrh: 76,324 2. Legendary Marth: 39,457 3. Legendary Ike: 38,254 4. Tibarn: 33,842 5. Hoshidan Micaiah: 26,199 Blue: 1. Legendary Azura: 106,755 2. Legendary Tiki: 64,607 3. Legendary Lucina: 27,390 4. Nailah: 23,965 5. Nephenee: 20,809 Green: 1. Legendary Lyn: 41,227 2. Legendary Hector: 38,069 3. Surtr: 35,700 4. Winter Lissa: 14,669 5. Male Grima: 14,331 Colorless: 1. Duma: 42,902 2. Legendary Female Grima: 26,063 3. Brave Veronica: 18,957 4. Nina: 16,335 5. Halloween Mia: 15,521 Top 20 overall: 1. Legendary Azura: 106,755 2. Halloween Myrrh: 76,324 3. Legendary Tiki: 64,607 4. Duma: 42,902 5. Legendary Lyn: 41,227 6. Legendary Marth: 39,457 7. Legendary Ike: 38,254 8. Legendary Hector: 38,069 9. Surtr: 35,700 10. Tibarn: 33,842 11. Legendary Lucina: 27,390 12. Hoshidan Micaiah: 26,199 13. Legendary Female Grima: 26,063 14. Summer Young Tiki: 25,893 15. Zelgius: 24,473 16. Nailah: 23,965 17. Hrid: 22,670 18. Nephenee: 20,809 19. Brave Veronica: 18.957 20. Legendary Eirika: 17,865 Wow - green was close between the top 3! I'm still stunned that L!Lyn won for that color.

Depending on the TT, top 1K cutoff usually ranges from 220K-250K, with the cutoff I think somewhere in the 230K range last time (maybe less). The first TT this year had a cut-off of around 250K. I wouldn't advise going for it unless you're willing to spend a ton of stamina potions, or if you have the patience and time, doing Lunatic 7 manually a ton like me. Thank goodness for a 1.5 hour commute each way via trains to help me grind. As @daisy jane said, top 5K is much more attainable, and I think somewhere around 120-140K should be sufficient this time. If you think you can do it, 8000 feathers will definitely be worth the effort! I helped her last TT get to top 5K, and hopefully she does the same here, and maybe you might too! I forgot to share my teams: Team 1: Greil, 4* Draug, Kliff, 4* Oscar Team 2: 4* OG Titania, V!Titania, 4* Sully, Nina That's right - four 4* heroes for HM grinding through TT on Lunatic 7 with a little bit of budget SI. Both teams are actually really doing well after a shaky first day.

I guess I underestimated Fjorm's worth then! I just checked, and my +4 +Atk Fjorm would have the following stats with double Eirs and bonus stats: 61/55/36/36/49. My offensive fort is level 4, so I should practically always have an additional +4 (or even +8), so that's 61/59/40/40/53. Add +6 full buffs from L!Azura, and she's at 61/65/46/46/59. This doesn't even include any kind of support or dragonflowers. Wow - that's stunning to me. Thanks for the tips!

@Javi Blizz@Stroud Sorry neither of you made T21 - the short season is a killer... I end this short season on 12,360 lift for T24, rank 649. It feels good to make top 1000! Too bad it might not happen very often for me after that... I'm going to miss Eir as a bonus unit. I wonder how I'm going to make Fjorm+4 work...

Arena - Score: 3,749, rank: 1,323/3,355/16,776, so back to T21 I go AA - Score: 5,221, rank: 3,789 I'm curious as to why there's been such inflation in AA - is it because of the merge changes? Earth season? A combination of both? In previous seasons that score is very close to top 3K. I gave Aether to Fjorm (she already has Slaying Spear+) to help her out. Thank goodness I pulled a +Atk copy in the December legendary banner.

My priority for both banners was red > blue > green > colorless. I luckily got a red orb for the first one and got Summer Leo (new unit), +Spd/-Def. The 2018-2019 one didn't have any reds or blues, so I had to settle for green and got a duplicate B!Sanaki, but with much better IVs: +Atk/-Def (original was +Res/-Atk). So that's an instant merge into the +Atk one! I can't really complain here - a new unit and great IVs for both.

Assuming that we get Chapter 4 on February 20 and not Paralogue 32 and that we get 4 orbs for the upcoming Arena quests, according to my orb tracker, February will have 345 orbs, excluding extra orbs for folks making or maintaining Grand Summoner (Tier 21) in Arena. So it's a drop-off of nearly 50 orbs (392 in January), but still not that bad for a short month. I really am curious to see who the 3rd unit will be on the Cherche & Virion banner. I personally think it's Flying Olivia, but it's really hard to say - it could be anybody at this point. Thank goodness I just finished the monthly quests - stamina will be eaten for practically the rest of the month since after Tempest Trials ends we jump straight to Forging Bonds and a new chapter/paralogue.

Here is a link to my orb and banner sheet to get an idea of the number of orbs coming in the future and how many orbs you can obtain for the duration of each banner. Event dates (corrected for most of the world): New heroes banners: 2/20, 3/8 Tempest Trials: 2/10 Tap Battle: 2/11 BHB: Cherche and Virion on 2/12 Grand Conquests: 2/16 BHB revival: Jamke: 2/18 Forging Bonds: 2/20 New GHB: 2/24 New LHB: 2/27 Voting Gauntlet: 2/28 BHB revival: Micaiah and Sothe: 3/5

@Kuroi Tsubasa Tenshi That's indeed my defense team! My two main goals in AR were to make T21 before the changes and get at least 1 Golden Throne. Now that I've accomplished both, I'm perfectly happy with all I've accomplished, so I switched to Legault, 2 Ninos and Linus/Lloyd/Ursula for the Black Fangs theme. I don't have Jaffar, otherwise I'd put him and OG Nino side by side. With the upcoming changes, I don't particularly feel like trying for the highest tiers, so I may as well switch to a fun defense team to make people's lives easier, even though it might possibly cost me a tier or two.

Hour one numbers: Ethlyn: 6,147,621 Leif: 4,886,952 Lissa: 4,014,535 Owain: 9,781,089 Cherche: 6,867,104 Gerome: 2,026,192 Mikoto: 9,592,330 Corrin: 7,827,035

Thanks, Stroud! I was absolutely heartbroken for you when I read you couldn't make it to T21. I hope you can make it soon! Thank you Landy, Alkaid and Maaka! It sure takes a lot of skill to make it to the top, although a little luck doesn't hurt. If I run into your team, Maaka, I'll likely surrender immediately! Now to think of a themed defense map...