Wayward Winds

I'm just not even listening to Kirsche. At this point he could throw us by doing the opposite of what we expect and telling the truth. Or he could stick to playing the Mafia. Really, what sort of conclusions can be form from a publicly revealed Mafia? Better to just ignore them and focus on other stuff.

Oh, so votes don't carry over? Okay; ##Pressure Cook: DA Bear ...I hope I don't need to explain again just why I suspect him (although, feel free to point out chinks in my argument. Maybe I've missed something).

Also, absence due to RL is not something I'm attacking. Scorri did say she should be more active once her busy weekend passed, so we'll see where that goes. The weekend has now passed, she therefore should show an increase in content posting. If not...

Ninja'd by Bard. Uh, was it BBM's use of meta? I believe I said it was odd, but it wasn't enough to make me think he was scum on its own. And this was before he responded to the criticism with examples.

Although, if we look at Kirsche's posts, barely one went by where he didn't criticise her (Scorri) in some way. Now this is Mafia and therefore 'get into the mind of the opposition' is unreliable at best, but that seems a bit off to me. He didn't really chase Poly at any point despite Poly giving off odd vibes that nearly everyone latched onto (including me I'll admit, though I never voted for him and did hold out hope for a defence that never came) and yet he ignored the obvious target in favour of chasing a near complete unknown. Distancing, maybe, but I think it was a little persistent for her to be scum as well. ...At least, that's one line of thought I have for her.

Well, firstly Shin, I'm not particularly suspicious of Scorri, because let's face it, there's little to analyse, and thus little to be suspicious of. She seems to be putting more thought/effort in than Bear is, who's just giving me a 'can't be bothered' vibe. I'm not saying BBM was onto something, just that as the most logical player of D1 and the only one I never really considered might be scum, he may have had some insight. But he also spent time defending her even while his vote was still parked on her (it never came off), so I can't and won't use the 'Town voted to lynch her, she must be scum' argument. That would be just stupid. I'm keeping an eye on her, nothing more. ...Incidentally, didn't her Kirsche vote come before he started really acting odd? Secondly, since your joke in RVS, which I interpretated wrong (please don't make me repeat it again), you haven't done anything to set alarm bells ringing. A little focussed on Bear, but then I've been pretty much on his back as well. You aren't jumping on bandwagons as Bear has been doing, and you've stayed fairly constant. What am I supposed to find in that? And I've already stated that targetting someone purely because they aren't around as often as the truely active (SB, Refa and ex-BBM) (Bear's got other reasons for drawing suspicions, in that he is around but doesn't use his posts in any particularly meaningful way) isn't something I should do. RL absence is not an indication of scumminess on its own! ...Yeesh that was too wordy. One last observation though. If Bear turns out to be Mafia, then I doubt you are. I can't see a mafia targetting a teammate for that length of time.

I can only think of one... :-( 'The Sound of Music Critics'

...Wait, now I'll probably be told off for not addressing operational questions at Eclipse. Whoops, guess I just opened myself up to the possibility of being mod-killed.

Yeesh, Uni destroyed my brain today. Anyway... ...Anyone else think Scorri was a little lacklustre there? I'd have thought the news of BBM's heroic sacrifice would have got a little more of a reaction. And, uh, does dropping the hammer end the phase early or something? I'm just baffled why a confirmed mafia player isn't booted when he's probably not even looking in now he's discovered. Or, completely the opposite, he's doing some private last minute plotting with the other mafia member/s. (That doesn't mean I want him removed, I just want to know why hammering is bad). Back to the subject of Scorri, I'm not overly suspicious of her yet, I'm just entertaining the possibility that BBM was onto something. Bear's still quiet. Hopping on the Poly wagon and not really commenting on anyone else (despite being around later to report the time) suggests to me he was after a lynch, nothing more. There's playing badly, which is what I'm doing, and there's not bothering to play, which is where Bear seems to fall at present. But if he is mafia, then for all we know he could actually be very active... talking privately to the other mafia. Regardless, that's the second time he's hopped on a bandwagon and attempted to bump it to the hammer. I'm leaving my vote where it is. Back to BBM, I can't help but notice that apart from Kirsche his main attacker was Bluedoom. We had the meta dispute, reasons for voting Scorri, and in post #112 there was no small amount of minor quibbles. To be fair Marth did apologise close to the end of D1 and repeated the apology when BBM turned up dead this morning, but it did go on for a rather long time. It could well have been paranoia, but I'm keeping an eye on him for a bit. Otherwise, I've got little to say at the moment, just anomalous feelings. If Bear is next to the noose and turns out to be scum, then I'd expect Shin to be Town due to the long running criticism of Bear. Scorri... can talk a bit more before I start getting overly suspicious there, and I'm currently seeing Refa as leaning town for frequent updates on his own thoughts. Bard... Kirsche's 'shoot Bard' line could be misdirection in either direction so I'm putting him as null-read until I reread his posts. SB's paranoia doesn't give me any reason to suspect him either. Question; do the mafia eliminate their night victim as a group, or do they nominate someone to do the deed? (Just trying to figure out if my night ability can help in spotting killers. You can work out what it is from that and the above post.)

Watch out for the 'World War Z' brand then! Those have a nasty habit of drifting around on the sea currents until they hit land, reanimate and start looking for food. At least, that's what the Zombie survival guide tells me. So, in my case I'm stowing away on the next rocket out of here. So long suckers! ...Man, the fun police are in town...

...I see Kirsche is trying to speed up his hammer. Hmm. As far as I know my night action did not fail, but as it was directed at Kirsche as well (figured there were enough people on Bear's case, obvious-target-Poly turned out to be a mislynch, so I might as well look at someone else), I didn't pick up anything new. But BBM's action told more than my action could have anyway. I'll recheck my spreadsheet and get back to you with any updated suspicions.

I'm working on the basis there's at least a 1:2, or 3:6 mafia:town ratio. I'm not certain, it's just guesswork. And that leaves two slots unfilled, but we could have independents.

...I guess Poly's in line for a lynch with current numbers anyway, I don't need to push. But as it is now 15 min to midnight, and I won't be able to get online between midnight and about 9am (by which time it'll be Night phase), time's running out. I suppose if I do miss changing over then the lynch will still likely happen, but Poly's got another 5 or so hours to explain himself. I would ask why you don't seem to be particularly desperate for me to shift my vote from you yet, but you are at two votes currently; you're comparatively safe. Unless things shift drastically anyway.

>Good, come on Bearclaw! Prove that my current plans to shift to Poly are the right way to go! >Mod meta? That sounds reliable... (cough, cough) >No offence SB, but part of the comments on me were a little close to nitpicking. I often embellish posts with comments like that right across the site. Comes from having low self esteem. As for my telling Poly to scum hunt elsewhere, if you check back I also stated that I wasn't telling him to stop suspecting me, just that I'm just one player and there's going to be at least three mafia. Coasting isn't going to help root out scum either. Besides, with Bear, Scorri and Poly all having varying levels of inactivity, do we really need another player 'coasting'? Can't fault your paranoia though.

...I know it's Eclipse's job, but we haven't had a vote tally for about 34 hours. Thought it mught be a good idea to provide updated figures given that D1 ends in about 7 hours., and she's told us only one 'no-lynch' before universal loss. Bearclaw (2): Wayward Winds, Polydeuces Polydeuces (4): Refa, Marth, Bard, Shin Refa (1): SB scorri (2): BBM, Kirsche Shin (1): Bearclaw Kirsche (1): Scorri ...I think that's right. Anyway, I'm a little short on other targets at the moment. I'm giving Poly another couple of hours ('till midnight local time) to better explain his position, otherwise I'll shift my vote to him prior to hitting the sack tonight, but that doesn't mean Bearclaw's off the hook by a long shot. At the moment Poly seems to be playing purely defensively, with no real effort to shake more info out of others. That said, I still don't trust Bear though my reasons remain constant. No effort since the RVS ended, which just doesn't ring true for a Town aligned player. Although, maybe there's Independants mixed in as well, what do I know? Just for the record, you don't have to go easy on me for being a newbie. If I was scum, being a newbie would make no difference to Town's objective - you'd still have to take me out. I'm not saying I want to be lynched, but...

Hold on a sec, did Serenes just post an unfinished post of mine? I think it did... Anyway, the missing part was about two sentences; ...And the bold/italic tags went cuckoo as well. Oh well. I'll post a bit more once I'm into an area with better reception.

Right, time for my next input. The aggresive defence... @Shin. I have stated twice now, that my thoughts on the RVS were a load of codswallop/tripe/festering rubbish/find your own synonym. I even bolded it to make sure it got noticed. So I've been ignoring everything up to and including my 'monster' because it was clearly worth nothing. I could interpret that observation as deliberately ignoring what I've been saying. Luckily for you, I've got bigger targets at the moment. ...the continuing offence...[/i] I know that Da Bear is absent, but I'm not voting for him on those grounds. What has me concerned is that, despite actively posting after things started to happen, he didn't really do anything with those posts. Nothing to make it look like he was trying to help Town, no offering opinions on other happenings, nothing. And the side stepping Shin's question, why? 'Would have unvoted' was a bit of a non-answer, and considering he elaborated on the sports thing in another post, he clearly wasn't that constrained by time limits. So, either he's being passive in the extreme (Scorri has provided more debate[/i]), or he's up to something. My vote stays on him for now. Then... Polydeuces. I don't mind the loss of a vote, but that U-turn was just a bit sudden. Almost like I'd caught him out. I find that behaviour somewhat suspect, but I've only got one vote. It may change to him later, it depends on what comes up later. ...and the 'What the heck is Wayward Winds doing??? Uh, Refa? I appreciate the '

Great. Now I haven't got a priority hurt target. Chrom: 149 Marth: 180 Lyn/Lyndis: 99 Hector: 122 Ike: 180 Lucina: 135 (+1) Eirika: 79 Ephraim: 130 (-2)

Chrom: 147 Marth: 180 Lyn/Lyndis: 97 Eliwood: 14 (-2) Hector: 120 Ike: 180 Lucina: 136 (+1) Eirika: 83 Ephraim: 133 And another...

Okay, let's see how much flak I attract for this one. I'm ignoring everything in the first couple of pages, because apparently RVS disagrees with me. So, after spending a couple of hours setting up a spreadsheet, I’ve got a couple of suspects. They are; Polydeuces; Yes, you might think this one’s obvious, but consider... he has a very one track mind hasn’t he? I’m not arguing the points that he’s making, but he could spend some time rooting around for other potential scum as well. After all, if I cop it, then regardless of whether I turn out to be Scum or Town, you’ll still have to probe other players. Why not start that now? In fact, Poly, that’s a warning. Do a bit of scum hunting elsewhere (you don’t have to change your opinion on me), or I’m shifting my vote to you. Da Bear; I can’t help but find his sidestep of Shin’s question suspect. And he never did unvote Shin, despite claiming he would have. In fact, looking at the current votes, we seem to have a private little feud going on between the two of them. Otherwise, there’s precious little meaningful content out of him. No scum hunting, no taking sides on arguments, nada. At least Shin’s been providing comments and helping drive the discussion forward. ...Time to apply some pressure. ##Cook: Da Bear And comments on a couple of others... BBM; the use of meta on a player with too few previous games to see much long term behaviour. Uh, suspect, but it’s the only thing I’m clocking as such for him. So far, anyway. He’s been reasonable the rest of the time, no particularly illogical moves. Refa; While he has indeed been quiet, he does seem to have been doing a bit of probing. More than some people, although admittedly not as much as he could. I’m of the opinion he’s just being careful... wait, that doesn’t stick in Mafia, does it?

Chrom: 145 Marth: 180 Celica: 2 Lyn/Lyndis: 101 Eliwood: 23 (-2) Hector: 119 Ike: 180 Lucina: 135 (+1) Eirika: 85 Ephraim: 132 ...I'll let someone else bump of Celica, I've yet to play her game, so I've got nothing against her.

Okay, I'd better offer some input into my past actions. 1) Nope, didn't understand RVS, tried to use (flawed) logic a little too early. That last post (when I unvoted Shin but didn't vote anyone else) was essentially me deciding Shin must have been joking and that everything I'd theorised in 'the monster' was a load of codswallop. Therefore, I could be lynching Town on a misunderstanding. Better to withdraw the vote and wait for more concrete evidence than to leave it there, potentially forget about it, and potentially bump forward a lynch that I didn't really have reason to commit to. (Don't worry, I'll revote in a couple of hours, now that there's been actual serious discussion to sift through... even if I did trigger a good part of it myself). 2) ...I think I'd better drop the wall of text analysis and focus on smaller chunks. Because I was essentially doing a player at a time, I tended not to think back to previous thoughts within the post (absence being the one that comes to mind quickest) and promptly contradicted myself. Being inconsistent is never a good way to render a name squeaky clean (which in mafia would actually be a bad thing), and compiling a post over 20/30 minutes is a sure way for the mind to wander and be inconsistent. 3) I'm also not going to mention absence again. I'll admit, that was a bad choice, considering the above inconsistency. Too much looking at other threads there... Someone could be lying low to minimise the possibility of accidentally spurting something incriminating, but it's more likely to be real life interference (not everyone uses their phone to check up on things while, say, they're on the bus). ...At least my foolishness appears to have triggered the switch from water pistols to live ammunition. I do not (apparently) see jokes for what they are. Anyway, I'm going to ignore everything in the first couple of pages, and have another sift around.

Chrom: 143 Marth: 180 Celica: 14 Lyn/Lyndis: 101 Eliwood: 31 (-2) Hector: 117 Ike: 180 Lucina: 134 (+1) Eirika: 84 Ephraim: 132

...To be fair, I did in that monster post offer a possible explaination why Scorri was still absent after 12 hours (sleep then work), which wasn't too far off her actual explaination. But, that being a tryhard newbie's too long post, my mind sort of drifted off that thought by the time I got down to the end. I'll apologise for that now; sorry! Anyway, forgetting that any scum needs to pass him/herself off as Town to the actual Town players (lest they find themselves lynched), I think I'm going to button up for the night. Maybe once the random voting phase has passed I'll be less... idiotic in my actions. We've got some 50hrs left for day 1 after all. In the meantime; ##Unvote. I'll try voting again in about twelve hours, when I can make a better informed decision.

...Pretty much. I know there's little evidence for votes to go on at this stage (although admittedly this only applies to Town, scum know who each other are, and by extension Town... unless there are Independents mixed in). But I'm trying to avoid impulse voting or "getting a bad vibe". If I can't back my lynch vote with logic - although admittedly my logic can get pretty twisted at times - then I probably won't make the vote. ...By being a stupid newbie. Oh well, at least I've shown up.