(Mafia Sucks) SF Mafia: The Revival - GAME OVER, Town Wins!

[j00]

Ugh, it does suck sub in to a dying slot. I wish you could have had a more interesting game and experience. Sorry about that, Duskfall.

I've ISO'd Refa and SB/charlie, and I get Duskfall's confusion about the railroaded wagon today. D1 I honestly thought SB was null, but we locked into the slot D2 due to a combination of awkward/distant interaction between Refa/SB (and neither of them has much more than a throwaway line on Cam), and PoE where other potential elims today got shut down due to having overall more favorable interactions with others.

I find SB going from Rapier > Makaze kinda weird if they were scum, since Rapier was a more likely wagon than Makaze. Though at the same time Refa was voting Rapier so maybe they would have wanted some distancing instead of appearing too coordinated idk wifom etc.

 

[Shinori]

Quote

Iris™ Votals: Day 2.0 (~2.5 hours left)

Refa (5): j00, BT., Makaze, Bluedoom, Prims (L-5)!
Rapier (4): BBM, Refa, Shinori, Percivale
WeaponsofMassConstruction (4): Rapier, Snike, CT075, Sunwoo
Makaze (2): Elieson, charlie
Prims (1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

So these are the votals posted by Iris DIRECTLY before BBM vote swap onto Refa, this is also one of the reasons I state the refa lynch was hard fought.

5-4-4 top 3 wagons 2.5 hours from phase end and enough vocal people AGAINST lynching Refa had me thinking it's much more likely to swing towards weapons/rapier.  Albeit there was also a lot of people stating being against Rapier at the exact same time, so votes on there quickly go away from here.

Following this BBM votes Refa putting it at 6-4-3.  My initial reaction is this PROBABLY means BBM isn't aligned with REFA, UNLESS weapons is scum as well and potentially has a better role than Refa.  So taking this at face value makes me say BBM isn't scum, however if I then take into account Weapons decisions it gets a little different.

Why is Weapons on Prims? I know he moves to Refa later but at this point in time it largely almost seems like Weapons DOESN'T want to vote Refa, almost like a reluctance to doing so.

The arguments about Charlies EoD vote sitting on Makaze is still there but at the same time, if Charlie was scum I want to believe they had ways of talking out of thread and thus could have talked about moving, either to rapier or weapons around this time.  Like if refa moves to weapons, and charlie goes to weapons potentially then this potentially swings the whole day phase wagonomics.  So part of this screams MAYBE SB isn't scum here in this point, the off-site comment is still sus but at the same time is weird if a buddy flips in the long run but also probably NEVER would have been brough up if lost wolf was never brought up in discussion.

I'm pretty heavily reading elie/Rad as town lean even though elie had less than stellar play.  I know for a fact that Elie himself is easy to contact and talk to on discord and I assume that is where a scum chat would be and I HIGHLY doubt the scum team just let's Elie basically get sussed and never post the WHOLE day phase but brings him around at the EoD just to vote his buddy Refa.  Rad has also sounded good since the start of the day so I'm just not looking to go there.

The five people listed as being on Refa in this current votal I'm reading as town because like, unless you PLAN to bus, which is really poor, this is bad timing for a bus to be when there are two other options to go for.

This leaves my scum reads to be between the people on Rapier and weapons wagons most likely leaving me a PoE of:

BBM
Perci
Rapier
Snike
Sunwoo
Weapons
Charlie

Breaking this down more:

For now ignore Charlie and weapons as they aren't on the 'counter wagons'

Start of the game Sunwoo and Refa basically almost went head to head against each other right away, and although this isn't anything hard-confirmed, I don't remember a game where I played as scum and one of the first things I did was get into an actual scuffle with a buddy.  The emotions kind of feel pretty genuine as well from Boron in this situation.  This gives me reason to at least lower my boron attention and focus on the others.

Rapier could fit as a potential buddy voting weapons instead of Refa because they don't want to vote a buddy but some other interactions they have make me lean away from them being scum currently.

Snike had some posts that I HEAVILY read as town, but I know for a fact that I could still be wrong.  They fit into the area as PoE still but their posting this day phase has honestly made me feel a bit more comfortable with them.  Maybe I'm just pocketed.

Perci is in potential PoE but has hinted at some stuff themself as well as I had my back and forth with them back on day 1 and I used to feel VERY strong in my ability to read Perci back in the day.  I read the emotion that happened and their instant reaction to my pressure on them as townie at this point in time.

This leaves me arriving towards BBM which I commented on previously.  In a vacuum they shouldn't be scum with Refa, unless weapons is their buddy.

And weapon being Refa buddy explains their reluctance to be on that wagon until way later.

Charlie can also fit into this same situation instead of BBM though.

Refa/Cam/BBM/Weapons
Refa/Cam/Dusk/Weapons

Both kind of fit heavily into my thought process. but this is a lot of thinking related to this sort of stuff and everyone probably won't agree with this thought process.

[Sunwoo]

My condolences to Duskfall as well, you just subbed into a slot that had too much pressure on it. Would've been great to have you actually been able to play.

 

[Snike]

3 minutes ago, Shinori said:

So these are the votals posted by Iris DIRECTLY before BBM vote swap onto Refa, this is also one of the reasons I state the refa lynch was hard fought.

5-4-4 top 3 wagons 2.5 hours from phase end and enough vocal people AGAINST lynching Refa had me thinking it's much more likely to swing towards weapons/rapier.  Albeit there was also a lot of people stating being against Rapier at the exact same time, so votes on there quickly go away from here.

Following this BBM votes Refa putting it at 6-4-3.  My initial reaction is this PROBABLY means BBM isn't aligned with REFA, UNLESS weapons is scum as well and potentially has a better role than Refa.  So taking this at face value makes me say BBM isn't scum, however if I then take into account Weapons decisions it gets a little different.

Why is Weapons on Prims? I know he moves to Refa later but at this point in time it largely almost seems like Weapons DOESN'T want to vote Refa, almost like a reluctance to doing so.

The arguments about Charlies EoD vote sitting on Makaze is still there but at the same time, if Charlie was scum I want to believe they had ways of talking out of thread and thus could have talked about moving, either to rapier or weapons around this time.  Like if refa moves to weapons, and charlie goes to weapons potentially then this potentially swings the whole day phase wagonomics.  So part of this screams MAYBE SB isn't scum here in this point, the off-site comment is still sus but at the same time is weird if a buddy flips in the long run but also probably NEVER would have been brough up if lost wolf was never brought up in discussion.

I'm pretty heavily reading elie/Rad as town lean even though elie had less than stellar play.  I know for a fact that Elie himself is easy to contact and talk to on discord and I assume that is where a scum chat would be and I HIGHLY doubt the scum team just let's Elie basically get sussed and never post the WHOLE day phase but brings him around at the EoD just to vote his buddy Refa.  Rad has also sounded good since the start of the day so I'm just not looking to go there.

The five people listed as being on Refa in this current votal I'm reading as town because like, unless you PLAN to bus, which is really poor, this is bad timing for a bus to be when there are two other options to go for.

This leaves my scum reads to be between the people on Rapier and weapons wagons most likely leaving me a PoE of:

BBM
Perci
Rapier
Snike
Sunwoo
Weapons
Charlie

Breaking this down more:

For now ignore Charlie and weapons as they aren't on the 'counter wagons'

Start of the game Sunwoo and Refa basically almost went head to head against each other right away, and although this isn't anything hard-confirmed, I don't remember a game where I played as scum and one of the first things I did was get into an actual scuffle with a buddy.  The emotions kind of feel pretty genuine as well from Boron in this situation.  This gives me reason to at least lower my boron attention and focus on the others.

Rapier could fit as a potential buddy voting weapons instead of Refa because they don't want to vote a buddy but some other interactions they have make me lean away from them being scum currently.

Snike had some posts that I HEAVILY read as town, but I know for a fact that I could still be wrong.  They fit into the area as PoE still but their posting this day phase has honestly made me feel a bit more comfortable with them.  Maybe I'm just pocketed.

Perci is in potential PoE but has hinted at some stuff themself as well as I had my back and forth with them back on day 1 and I used to feel VERY strong in my ability to read Perci back in the day.  I read the emotion that happened and their instant reaction to my pressure on them as townie at this point in time.

This leaves me arriving towards BBM which I commented on previously.  In a vacuum they shouldn't be scum with Refa, unless weapons is their buddy.

And weapon being Refa buddy explains their reluctance to be on that wagon until way later.

Charlie can also fit into this same situation instead of BBM though.

Refa/Cam/BBM/Weapons
Refa/Cam/Dusk/Weapons

Both kind of fit heavily into my thought process. but this is a lot of thinking related to this sort of stuff and everyone probably won't agree with this thought process.

Just want to quickly talk about that votal; I switched onto that wagon about 4 minutes after Prims switched off and part of the switch was bc Prims was on  that wagon, alongside aforementioned reasons. 20 minutes pass, then Cam and Sunwoo hop on within like 6 minutes of each other, then eventually that votal. The only other vote there was Percivale onto Rapier.

Dunno if the timing helps, but I'd figure I'd bring it up.

[j00]

13 minutes ago, Shinori said:

And weapon being Refa buddy explains their reluctance to be on that wagon until way later.

Hm, I'm still not sure about Woopons, but instead of Prims why didn't he just vote for Rapier instead of leaving his vote on Prims until it was a 1v1 between him and Refa? I can't see scum fucking up so badly it ended up with Refa/Weapons/Rapier triple scum wagon at EoD1, so if Weapons is scum he should've tried much harder to get the Rapier wagon rolling.

[Shinori]

I'm just trying to decide if I'm putting too much weight into the "Off-site traitors comment" that wasn't even an initial part of my case but after they came into my site It's been SO hard for me to look elsewhere.

[Shinori]

Just now, j00 said:

Hm, I'm still not sure about Woopons, but instead of Prims why didn't he just vote for Rapier instead of leaving his vote on Prims until it was a 1v1 between him and Refa? I can't see scum fucking up so badly it ended up with Refa/Weapons/Rapier triple scum wagon at EoD1, so if Weapons is scum he should've tried much harder to get the Rapier wagon rolling.

I could potentially see demotivated scum, or maybe it was w/w/w wagons.  there are other like what-if's but I mean the most realistic thing is just, mistakes.

Like how I bussed my buddy day 1 because of my own poor mistakes in champs, to which I largely point out my lack of playing mafia in 4-6 years.  I don't think it's too much to assume people are making mistakes or not fully thinking things through after not having played for a very long time.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

@Shinori I didn't want to vote Refa cause I thought he was town

[j00]

Man, I don't feel like I have any strong convictions today about who scum is, it's more that there's a lot of players whose actions I can't find scum intent behind.

Like "but if they were scum, doing X like they did doesn't make sense". I might be overthinking this too, but in many cases here "unsure town" is the simplest explanation for reads that turned out to be wrong.

[Shinori]

So question, @WeaponsofMassConstructionHow does your universal back up work?  Did you already get notified about being a back up for BT?  If not maybe check with mods privately?  Or do you have to target someone to get a role?

[Sunwoo]

I ... legitimately didn't think too hard about Weapon's Prims vote? That whole Weapons and Prims exchange was kinda weird, but I sort of just took it as them both fucking around.

Admittedly I don't have a good understanding of Weapons' meta even back in the day, but I'm used to him just sorta fucking around and doing things without explanations, especially during D1.

Like, I guess I wouldn't call Weapons a hard town read/town lean like with certain other players but I guess I would also need to reread his interactions with others to see if I actually feel like he could be scum with the already flipped people.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

1 minute ago, Shinori said:

So question, @WeaponsofMassConstructionHow does your universal back up work?  Did you already get notified about being a back up for BT?  If not maybe check with mods privately?  Or do you have to target someone to get a role?

Didn't get anything from BT. Don't pick, don't know what roles I'd be getting

[Sunwoo]

Just now, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

Didn't get anything from BT. Don't pick, don't know what roles I'd be getting

Weapons, is your universal backup an active role? Or is it "a certain role dies and you automatically get updated that your role has changed" kind of backup?

[j00]

I agree SB/Dusk-slot is scummiest by way of PoE, but the more I look at their posts the more I feel they just got real unlucky by being hit by the double-whammy Refa/Cam flip, which makes Makaze look ubertownie today and SB look bad by association (or lack of thereof). 

[Sunwoo]

Uh, to clarify that first point ... do you have the choice to deny or delay picking up a role or are you automatically forced into picking up the first valid role that you can?

[Shinori]

I'll be honest, my other tinfoil related to weapons is that he's scum back up.

Consig goon, JoaT, and 2 others is what im assume for scum and I could see one more PR from scum and then a backup as a 'pseudo' goon.  But this is like tinfoil that isn't like really able to hold up to anything.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

1 minute ago, Sunwoo said:

Weapons, is your universal backup an active role? Or is it "a certain role dies and you automatically get updated that your role has changed" kind of backup?

Yeah the latter as far as I can tell

[Shinori]

Also based on weapons not getting anything off of already flipped town, and I don't think they could get my role, I question how many roles weapons could theoretically get from town then at this point.

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

2 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Uh, to clarify that first point ... do you have the choice to deny or delay picking up a role or are you automatically forced into picking up the first valid role that you can?

Not that I'm aware of

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Maybe these "certain roles" are actually VT and I am actually universal VT backup

[BBM]

I imagine it's something like, town has a combo of fulltime and shot roles and weapons gets only the fulltime roles

[Snike]

1 minute ago, Shinori said:

I'll be honest, my other tinfoil related to weapons is that he's scum back up.

Consig goon, JoaT, and 2 others is what im assume for scum and I could see one more PR from scum and then a backup as a 'pseudo' goon.  But this is like tinfoil that isn't like really able to hold up to anything.

I want to point out the Jack is Killing Modifier Jack. So we're missing like Godfather(Maybe? Consig could also be that) and some sort of info-collecting role at least and I'd say godfather could be the goonlike. And then uh disrupt ability is missing so.

[j00]

1 minute ago, Shinori said:

Also based on weapons not getting anything off of already flipped town, and I don't think they could get my role, I question how many roles weapons could theoretically get from town then at this point.

I don’t know either but it’s worth noting that town powers in this game doesn’t appear to be super strong. BT was 1-shot, and we’ve had two VT claims which everyone just shrugs and calls NAI.

[Snike]

I mean town could have the disrupt ability but I don't think if we think one of the jack shots is strongwilled just a 1 shot hijack would be enough power to warrant that?

[Rapier]

19 minutes ago, Shinori said:

[big post with reads]

I think it'd have made more sense for BBM to switch to Weapons, who was his second scumread, than Refa when my wagon wasn't rolling. I don't remember BBM having a stronger scumread on Refa back then, and it was still possible to lynch Weapons since he was the second biggest wagon. Unless I'm wrong about votals and end D1 details, I think this is sus, although it'd imply BBM and Weapons being scum and I doubt BBM would let things get that messy for scum, being an experienced player. He'd have prodded Weapons on switching to me imo.

Weapons not switching to me and instead parking his vote on Prims, then switching to Refa, seems weird for scum. He had a scumread on me so it wouldn't feel like an unorganic vote or a leap of logic.

I think that if I were to flip scum, Refa would definitely have died on D2 anyway. It seems like a poor gamble from scum and it's more likely to backfire. Plus I don't want to be the sole surviving scum ever again (only time this happened was in a game with Randa and someone else as scum, iirc Refa, and Prims carried me despite being town).

I also think it's less likely for Elie to have had zero opinions on D1 as scum, since his buddies would tell him about the state of the game or at least help him come up with a stance. His stances felt like town trying to read, being vague enough. His lategame vote doesn't tell me much since it's possible he didn't have internet access and had to do a last minute vote due to circumstances beyond his control. He did look for a sub so this struggle to access the game seems genuine (sorry Iris, please don't thunderstrike my slot for this).

I find Boron's content towny enough. A small part of me finds it strange she isn't as inquisitive and hard pressing as she used to back in the day, but this is a minor meta issue at best and my memory sucks.

 

ANYWAYS.

Weapons could have voted for me but didn't. BBM could've voted for Weapons but didn't. Their previous interactions where BBM read him as scum could've been mid D1 distancing, since his reasons for voting Weapons over me were justified from gut feels over anything. I find it odd that Weapons didn't switch to me or someone else (could've been self conscious scum trying to avoid being seen voting the guy who was voting them) before, but I can see both their votes being an inevitable coordinated bussing when people decided to go for Makaze instead of me and Refa's wagon got bigger and his lynch also inevitable.

So I see your point.