Mafia (the game)

[Parrhesia]

In that case, I vote for Isaac55.

Would be pretty awkward were there actually someone called Isaaa etc.

[Fox]

FFTF is that way.

[General Spoon]

Alright, who moved the threads to FftF? There is a reason they were put in General. For one thing, they will need excessive bumps in FftF. They're also open to random shit here. Please move them back.

[Shuuda]

Moved to forum games.

[CATS]

Okay this is confusing. Let's get a vote tally.

Ether - 1

Balcerzak - 1

Nightmare - 1

Isaac55 - 2

Weapons - 3

Any particular reason for the random vote on Bal? The others atleast have some rudimentary reasoning given.

[Balcerzak]

No real idea, but I'm guessing its because I "threw the first stone" so to speak. Though to be fair, I'd be more concerned about the apparent coalition of people forming to vote on much flimsier evidence. It's almost like the mafia is trying to hoist us with our own petard.

Edited February 8, 2010 by Balcerzak

[Ether]

Voting Isaac55

[shroudening]

Picking on the fat kid huh?

[CATS]

I agree. The evidence against Weapons is weak at best. Woodchippers are used to reduce or strip down tree branches; it doesn't strike me as an instrument of construction. A connection about wood or heavy machinery in general would probably be more convincing. And the random revenge voting is worse, that sort of behavior is not going to be constructive to the citizens.

Bal's FotNS idea makes the most sense imo, but I have trouble really seeing that one, too. I checked out FotNS and I can't see references to polar bears, northern locales or cold weather in general. Is it set in a polar climate or something, Bal? Or is it just the fact that it has North in the title?

Regardless, it makes more sense than anything else I can see atm, so I'm going with Bal on this one for now.

Nightmare.

[Balcerzak]

I must confess to not actually having watched FotNS, or have more than really a general idea about what it is about ("You are already dead"). I know that it is set in a post-apocalyptic future, and while I honestly am not sure entirely what kind of fate the world suffered, I believe it was nuclear winter. Other than that, and the fact that it has North in the title, I do have to admit the link is tenuous, but there is little else to go on.

[General Spoon]

Night Phase Begins - Day 1

Its time for the Mafia to come out and play!

(Now is the time to PM me special actions)

Edited February 8, 2010 by General Spoon

[General Spoon]

Since I have received absolutely no killing orders, I'm going to give you guys until 8:00 PM CST today to get those in. You know who you are.

EDIT: Hrrm...it seems it wasn't even 24 hours yet. Oh yeah, my point is still valid, and you still have until the above time.

Edited February 9, 2010 by General Spoon

[General Spoon]

I'm bumping the deadline for orders to be sent in back. Again.

Edited February 10, 2010 by General Spoon

[Balcerzak]

Did something happen with this, or are we still waiting on the night-time crew?

[General Spoon]

We are still waiting on one memeber of the nighttime crew. I expect to have his/her order in by 5:00 PM - 6:00 PM CST today.

Edited February 11, 2010 by General Spoon

[General Spoon]

Day Phase Begins - Day 1

Its time to vote! People aren't going to hang themselves, you know.

Edited February 12, 2010 by General Spoon

[Balcerzak]

I have some very interesting suspicions, and some modest and quite possibly flawed deductions, but I am unsure how wise it is to reveal everything I've concluded to the public at large. Is it better to tell all, despite the definite possibility of the mafia listening in on my musings, or to play my cards close to my vest?

[Crysta]

Well, it's a very creative mafia, at the very least. The washer was a nice addition (even if you could just throw the dude off the building), though the van was sort of boring.

I'm eyeing the Weapon guy. He seems unconventional and this totally a legit reason to hang someone, as we well know.

Then again, the vigilante could be the creative one.

Edited February 12, 2010 by Crysta

[Kriemhild]

##Vote: Weapons of Mass Construction

To continue the bandwagon.

I am also suspicious of Ether, who voted for Isaac when he had two votes without an explanation. We know that Isaac is innocent so I'm guessing that vote was an attempt to save his scumbuddy's (Weapons of Mass Construction) life. It worked yesterday but I want to see Weapons of Mass Construction lynched today.

[Balcerzak]

Okay, well, it probably can't hurt to lay down what I'm thinking. What's the worst that can happen right?

Yesterday's vote tells us a couple of important things, let's start off with the fact that it was a tie, and no-one hung. This means the tie was not broken by the sheriff so we can go down the list and discover

People the sheriff is not: Nightmare, Ether, Isaac55, The FerretWhisperer, Hero, Weapons of Mass Construction

People the sheriff might be: Hikarusa, Xeld, Crysta_, CATS, Proto, Balcerzak, Star Mist's Nii-san

Now onto the subject of actual deaths. I'm making (what I assume to be) a reasonable assumption that the vigilante wouldn't go to work killing people at random starting on day 0. I know if I were him I wouldn't, I'd wait until having at least an inkling as to who the mafia may be. Xeld's slaying was exotic and bizarre, and so was The FerretWhisperer's. Isaac55's death does not match with these other colorful deaths, so I'm assuming that this one was the work of a vigilante. Furthermore, it's not an altogether unlikely proposition that the vigilante is an annoyed Weapons of Mass Construction, making sure Isaac met his maker after the failed hanging attempt that he spearheaded.

While I'm considering who to vote to lynch, I need to take into account all of these factors. It's in my own best interests not to vote for someone who is still in the pool of potential sheriffs, not to vote for a likely vigilante, and I obviously cannot vote for someone who is dead. That leaves me with three choices: Nightmare, Ether, Hero.

There's one other piece of really useful information I need to account for, and that's the fact that Ether voted late in the day. I can reasonably assume Ether only voted the way they did to tie things up, both so that no innocents died, and also for a chance of seeing if the tie would be broken by the presence of a Sheriff, allowing important inferences to be drawn. I know I was seriously considering changing my vote at the last minute for these reasons, so I'm going out on a limb and assuming Ether is innocent. After all, the mafia would definitely want as many deaths as possible during the daytime phases.

That leaves me with Nightmare and Hero, both of whom voted early and established the start of a worrisome random looking coalition. However, Hero at least attempted to justify it, while the other two just hopped on the bandwagon, which is not unlikely for mafia behaviour. Once again, I think I find myself forced to push for the lynching of Nightmare.

Please, point out any flaws in my logic.

Edited February 12, 2010 by Balcerzak

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

...more bandwagon?

Has Star Mist's Nii-San posted yet?

[Kriemhild]

Thanks, Balcerzak, that was a very good post in there that helped explain a lot. I agree with most of the stuff in it except for a few things.

Now onto the subject of actual deaths. I'm making (what I assume to be) a reasonable assumption that the vigilante wouldn't go to work killing people at random starting on day 0. I know if I were him I wouldn't, I'd wait until having at least an inkling as to who the mafia may be. Xeld's slaying was exotic and bizarre, and so was The FerretWhisperer's. Isaac55's death does not match with these other colorful deaths, so I'm assuming that this one was the work of a vigilante. Furthermore, it's not an altogether unlikely proposition that the vigilante is an annoyed Weapons of Mass Construction, making sure Isaac met his maker after the failed hanging attempt that he spearheaded.

In my experience, a tie between two townies is very very rare. Especially when you consider the fact that the mod has already informed us all that a No Lynch would occur during a tie. Any Mafia member that has brains would vote for any of those two just to lynch them. Even if the other one were to die later, no one would look suspicious for "defending their scumbuddy" during the tie.

And if Weapons Of Mass Construction was a Vigilante, then I highly doubt that he would try to kill Isaac. Him and Isaac had the most votes last Day Phase so it shouldn't be difficult to start a bandwagon on them again. If Weapons Of Mass Construction wanted to live, he would have kept Isaac alive so that he doesn't become the only target for a bandwagon. Yes, I also think a Vig killed Isaac, because he genuinely thought that Isaac might have been scum. But I don't think it was Weapons of Mass Construction, who would rather have Isaac be lynched in his place.

There's one other piece of really useful information I need to account for, and that's the fact that Ether voted late in the day. I can reasonably assume Ether only voted the way they did to tie things up, both so that no innocents died, and also for a chance of seeing if the tie would be broken by the presence of a Sheriff, allowing important inferences to be drawn. I know I was seriously considering changing my vote at the last minute for these reasons, so I'm going out on a limb and assuming Ether is innocent. After all, the mafia would definitely want as many deaths as possible during the daytime phases.

That doesn't sound right. Yes, the Mafia would want more Town deaths during the Day Phases but the Town would also want people lynched as well. Even if it's a Town death, they can learn a lot from this death by observing how and when the people voted and what their reasoning was. Obviously, they would have no chance of winning if they just No Lynched everyday and hoped that the Vig gets lucky while the Mafia starts picking them off one by one. Lynches help the Town because we would know for certain whether the lynched was Town or not, allowing us to draw important conclusions.

That leaves me with Nightmare and Hero, both of whom voted early and established the start of a worrisome random looking coalition. However, Hero at least attempted to justify it, while the other two just hopped on the bandwagon, which is not unlikely for mafia behaviour. Once again, I think I find myself forced to push for the lynching of Nightmare.

The important thing to remember here is that it was an early vote. No one could have anticipated that there would be a bandwagon against Weapons of Mass Construction and/or Isaac (although three votes isn't much). There isn't much to go on with so early in the game. While I'm not denying that Nightmare could be Mafia, I don't think his actions had any mafia-like behavior. It's the ones that voted later on that we should be looking at.

Not changing my vote yet.

[General Spoon]

>_>

Next game, I'm going to PM everyone playing when a new phase starts. (ie: Night phases end, I PM everyone telling them the day phase has started). Next game should be swifterish with this inclusion :)

Edited February 13, 2010 by General Spoon

[uguu]

I'm gonna vote Ether

[General Spoon]

Night Phase Begins - Night 2

Don't wake daddy!