Carnival Phantasm Mafia

[nano]

A question: If you are in an informed faction and you die, does your role PM say "You know ?？ are allied with you" or is that line just omitted? I feel like the Shiki/Shirou factions are informed but I can't tell.

[Grace]

As I'm going to sleep , I realized something:

Reagrding that message that Prims got: It looked Blitz, and he could of had Prims dayvigged. And I also think that Blitz targeted Elieson as well N1 from that, because otherwise he wouldn't have known. Elieson is very likely looking like silencer right now, actually...

I was going to say that Marth would have fakeclaimed, but I realized that he targeted Blitz N0, not N1. so that idea is out the window. I'm quite starting to think that Marth may actually be a townie, but eh, I'm not sure yet.

Also, don't consider the possibility of scum!watcher anymore from that PM alone, because the action that found it was thirdparty!tracker. I suspect that the hidden player in league with Blitz is the question asker as well. That's why that works.

godammit Elie, why do you have to keep getting maf?

##Unvote

##Vote: Elieson

Who did you target N1? Out with it. Right now.

[Elieson]

So Blitz was not scum, but Lynchproof Watcher Dayvig 3rd party. That explains him not caring about being lynched off. That also explains the source of the SMS to Prims.

Good shot Eclipse~ One more left on 3rd side (i think, based on that rolePM of Blitz's).

---

Prims, Manix, you figured it out, I suspect. I admit, I visited Paperbrad on N1. However, I had nothing to do with his silencing (unless I have some hidden role that I don't know I have).

I'm not claiming anything else though right now, as all I would be doing is setting myself even more up for a NK target if I did.

[Elieson]

Dammit ninja Manix, I was just reviewing my post and refreshed to see if I missed anything before posting, and I saw your post, so I had tio include you in it before I posted it !

[Subieko]

What the hell, Blitz is dead, Marth is at hammer, and I have to leave in like a minute, just great. I know this post is terrible, I'm sorry, last night was D&D group and today I'll be out all day.

Can we please not hammer Marth yet? We have more than a day of discussion left and I'd like to use it.

##Unvote because on reread I caught something that changed my mind, will explain when I home tonight, sorry I realize this is terribad.

[Grace]

I thought that's what you would say, Elie. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmgmmm

##Unvote

Let's see some more opinions before I wake up tomorrow, please.

Also Elie, they can only kill one of us if your role is that good, and if Marth really is LR, then town gets a pseudo-roleblock of our choice, really. Which one would mafia want dead first? I don't know, depends what you claim, Elie.

[nano]

Alright...

##Unvote

[Grace]

Actually Elie, if you feel confident enough that I'm town, could you send me a message with your role (and targets if you want)(also if you can, as well)? It might make it a bit easier for me to figure out what the daffodil is going on. I won't post it into the thread unless you want me to.

[Balcerzak]

Giving warning that there's roughly 13 hours left before lynch. Also, Sunday evenings are (one of) my dungeons and dragons evenings. I may or may not be able to give more votals as the day winds to a close, I may not see SMS to forward them, and I may indeed be late for the update myself. I will trust in Ether's ability to borrow a power adapter from someone and hope for the best.

[Bluedoom]

See, I have no idea what's going on. Assuming 5 mafia players, and mislynch this phase, and unless the doctor is lucky(actually, Haze should use is power this night phase), otherwise town will be at lylo next phase. Doesn't look good.

So it WAS Blitz who sent Prims the message. I still wonder where that question asker stuff came from.

[Elieson]

Upon rereading Blitz' rolePM twice more, I get it now. I understand where we likely stand.

Eclipse shouldn't be anyone's primary target anymore.

I understand a lot more now that Blitz is dead.

[Bluedoom]

On further thought it is likely we have another 3rd party. We possibly have 4 mafia. Then again 3rd party doesn't exactly affect the town:mafia ratio in anyway so hmmm

[Bluedoom]

Oh ok I re-read stuff. That explains it. So eclipse was the other 3rd party, hm? Ok.

That still doesn't explain what Scori did last night, or wth happened with Paper. Ugh.

[Bluedoom]

Ok so I'm not gonna be online probably until end phase, unless I wake up earlier, say, 20 minutes before end phase. How lovely.

Subieko still looks like a good lynch to me, and I've decided not o go on Eli just yet. Blitz was only a tracker, so there's no definite proof that Eli's the silencer. As such, my vote remains on Subieko.

[Helios]

Marth I got your SMS. Sorry man I fell asleep, otherwise I would have confirmed that earlier. So I don't waste one of your SMSes, I don't think I'm the person you are looking for lol. Also what's with the fb eye man?

So Clipsey got lucky used logic to find out that Blitz was her third party counterpart, and things worked out well for her. I had a feeling she was third party based on her reaction to when Subieko and others started talking about their theories regarding "getting recruited into the harem". My guess for the other third party wasn't Blitz though; I figured it'd be Nano, Pride, or even Straw due to their lack of scumhunting and quality posts. However, Nano looks to be getting the hang of the game a little more and is posting more, Pride was inactive and Prims subbed in for him. That left Straw, and idk wtf ever happened to him. It doesn't look like he's really been lurking though so he could fall in the Iris category of just being too busy IRL.

I think it's pretty much confirmed that Blitz was the one who sent that SMS, and it looks like he has the credentials to have known a thing or two so it's not all coming out of his ass. Problem is where did the question asker come from? And why would he send an SMS about something he wanted posted publicly. Unless the question asker is Paper? It looks like BBM's role then is confirmed and he's not fakeclaiming, but it didn't say whether he was town or scum. I don't know if I want to clear him as town just yet, but it seems that everyone has forgotten about him now which doesn't look good to me. I've played as scum once so far, and I remember a wagon came up on me D1 and then after me (and my sub Elie) cleared things up and the wagon died, Elie was forgotten about completely for the rest of the game (until the Randomlynch won).

Elie looks scummier to me again now with this news from Blitz. I didn't think that his self-vote cleared him in anyway but was more of a slightly desperate tactic to get attention off of him. The fact that he visited Paper N1 doesn't make him look any better, and we know that Silencer is usually a scum role. Elie = scum!silencer? The proof is right there and it makes sense to me. He's also not playing the way I've seen him play in the past and I don't know what to think of that exactly and for some reason he's less paranoid dammit. I'm not getting a huge obvscum vibe off of him, but I think his scum vibes eclipse Marth right now so I'll put my vote on him for now.

##Vote: Elieson

More shall come later. I haven't even eaten breakfast yet and it's almost 2 PM...

[Helios]

Also Clipsey was your "plan" that you were talking about earlier have to do with outing the other third party to help satisfy your wincon?

[BBM]

Sorry for being "forgettable" this phase, as Marth put it. Yesterday was my birthday, so I was helping my sister make a cake for me all afternoon (it was pretty fancy and my sister finished it at like 2:30 am), and then my party went from like 6 pm to 5 am, so I totally crashed after that and just woke up.

Anyways, um... So let me see if I interpreted everything correctly. We have two third-party factions it seems. Each have a leader (who is hidden?) and one other JoaT type person with them. Blitz was allied with Emiya Shirou and is now dead, and Eclipse is allied with Tohno Shiki and has now used her dayvig ability. She is probably also unlynchable, and to contrast with Blitz being a Watcher, she is a Tracker. Now, since Eclipse has used her dayvig ability and Blitz is dead, unless the leaders also have some extra role that can kill us, we should probably leave them alone for now.

So, Marth vs Elieson... Ah... I don't think Marth's post was exactly a scumslip- it seemed more of a typo to me. And Marth's attitude at the end of this phase is also much different from what I remember it to be in GSM, There, once it was pretty obvious, he just kinda quit, while here, he kept going and asked for what he should do before he died. And it doesn't seem as if Blitz really had a reason to lie in his SMS to Prims. His wincon was for Emiya Shirou's faction to have more votes than the other guy, and his post did not implicate anyone who outed themselves as Tohno Shiki's fan (To my knowledge, only Paperblade), or anyone who was part of Tohno Shiki's group (Eclipse). So if Blitz was telling the truth, I think it's fairly probable that Elieson IS the Silencer, so my vote will stay where it is.

[Elieson]

For starters, I'd like to restate that I did visit Paperblade on N1, and that I'm not the silencer.

BBM and Helios, and anyone else who agrees with them, mind explaining why I would admit targetting paper, deny the acussations (which are merely coincidential), and why there was no one silenced on N0? Why on earth would anyone pass that up? If anything, paper would've been silenced twice, unless there was a role redirection or SG.

I was silencer in the previous Mafia game, and I randomly targetted Eclipse on N0. I did that because there was no point in wasting my ability and doing nothing, when it wouldn't really hurt. And hiding a silencing ability for one single night? If I were trying to hide an ability, I wouldn't target anyone until absolutely necessary, especially with all the redirectors around here. And even then, if I were trying to hide it, I would try to deny my target or claim redirected or something, anything to keep eyes off of me.

I fail to see the logic in a Silencer not using his/her role to, well, silence someone actively. Therefore, I fail to see how your arguments are anything more than pointing fingers at a coincidence.

[BBM]

There's a pretty good chance that Blitz's SMS was correct (or at least, that he believed it to be so), because I don't think he had a reason to lie. Therefore, since we know he is the Watcher, you can't deny that you visited Paperblade. However, you can deny that you are the Silencer, because Watcher doesn't get information about the roles of the people who visited his target. I assume Blitz inferred that you were the Silencer because you were the only person to visit Paperblade last night. Also, the Silencer not using their ability on N0 has nothing to with whether or not you are mafia. Even if you are not the Silencer, whoever it was DID idle on N0, and we don't know why. I can't remember whether Manix said he idled on N0 or not. If he didn't, it's entirely possible that he blocked the Silencer N0.

[Elieson]

There's a pretty good chance that Blitz's SMS was correct (or at least, that he believed it to be so), because I don't think he had a reason to lie. Therefore, since we know he is the Watcher, you can't deny that you visited Paperblade. However, you can deny that you are the Silencer, because Watcher doesn't get information about the roles of the people who visited his target. I assume Blitz inferred that you were the Silencer because you were the only person to visit Paperblade last night. Also, the Silencer not using their ability on N0 has nothing to with whether or not you are mafia. Even if you are not the Silencer, whoever it was DID idle on N0, and we don't know why. I can't remember whether Manix said he idled on N0 or not. If he didn't, it's entirely possible that he blocked the Silencer N0.

Blitz's role pm copypasta

During the night, you may reply "Night X - Perform reconnaissance on <USER>." You will track USER throughout the night, determining who they visited.

Learn to read.

Bbm, read my two bolded statements please. He knows I targetted paper, but not anyone else who could've.

Blitz tracked me. He was a tracker.

[Elieson]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Watcher

There, I looked up the definition of Watcher just to be sure, and it even lists the definition of Tracker on the same page.

[Subieko]

Phew, made it back earlier than I thought. Now I have to reread everything I missed, but first I want to get this post out.

I see on this last page people saying Elieson is silencer, I need to reread what the heck happened, but until then, I'm finding him less suspicious because of something I found on reread:

Or for all you know I could've targeted the roleblocker.

That's a post from Marth, which I missed my first readthrough. I had thought Elieson came up with the 'Marth targeted the rb' thing by himself and then used that to push for info, but it seems that he actually got the idea from Marth himself. Looking at Marth's post, I can see how Elieson might have thought Marth was hinting that he had info that made him pretty sure his target really was the rb. So now Elieson's behavior looks more like Town picking a bad strategy and then going way too far with it. Still not happy with the self-vote, but I'm seeing his posts in a different light now.

After rereading D1 as Eclipse suggested...I've made up my mind about Marth. And I think he's Town playing badly, not scum. I became suspicious of him because of his defense during N1, but when I thought about it again, I realized that at the time he seriously thought he was going to get vigshot. This explains the panicky quality. And I still feel that once D2 started (and the vigshot was no longer a danger because it was daytime), his posts became calmer and more rational.

With regard to D1...was Marth playing a fantastic game? No. But I still don't think his D1 play was especially bad. Thinking back, I also feel like I've read other games where Marth was Town and kind of freaked out when he was in danger of being lynched.

Now with what I saw of his recent posts, which I admit I've only skimmed at this point due to lack of time--it looks like Marth is setting things up such that even if he gets lynched, Town will be able to see his thinking on reread later. He's putting effort into getting his thoughts, opinions, suspicions, etc. out there, which helps Town, not scum. At this point I think lynching Marth is a mistake and we have to find a new target. We've still got enough time, I think.

As for who the other target should be...well, I had a whole set of notes on Blitz, but now he's dead so yeah. I need to reread what's just happened as well in case anything new about Elieson has come up. As of now, though. I'm looking at Manix. Some posts that stuck out to me on reread:

I think we could get something out of this lynch, actually. Depends.

(Alternative: another derp moment for me)

This was his reasoning for voting BBM. Aka, 'herp derp if I'm wrong it's not my fault'.

if you (Marth) flip town from the vig shot, chances are is that Haze is fakeclaiming and we can lynch him anyway. Town wins, period.

This seems like a huge logical leap, and makes me wonder if this was an attempt to set up a Haze mislynch.

The ill-timed Safeguard claim--why all the breadcrumbing so early on? And then when he claimed, he said that his claim meant Marth was fakeclaiming. Safeguard and Single-Target Lightning Rod do not seem mutually exclusive at all.

it probably wasn't, but hey, I still suck at this game pretty hard sometimes.

This was his explanation for his ill-timed claim. Similar to the BBM vote above, 'if I screwed up it's not my fault.'

During this phase Manix has tunneled on Marth a bit too. Picking a target and feeling confident about it is fine, but not looking at anyone else means you have nothing to start with the next day.

Now I have to catch up on today's posts.

##Vote: Manix for now

[Strawman]

Also: this is talking irl and not a vigclaim, If I Were Vig i'd be shooting strawman right now cuz nano has at least tried to contribute in the past 48 hours

Prims, I'm hurt. I at least contributed 1 line in the past 48 hours. it may not ave been very quality, but it was there I promise.

Also, I would just like to point out I totally knew Blitz was not town. But I wonder if he started out not town or was converted. Which would be strange since the others who were targeted by Harems didn't get their wincon converted. oh well it turns out actually reading can answer those questions. So Eclipse and Blitz were neutrals allied with different hidden players, gotcha. But I wonder, do you think they count as a threat to the town?

Anyways, now on to more pressing matters.

For starters, I'd like to restate that I did visit Paperblade on N1, and that I'm not the silencer.

BBM and Helios, and anyone else who agrees with them, mind explaining why I would admit targetting paper, deny the acussations (which are merely coincidential), and why there was no one silenced on N0? Why on earth would anyone pass that up? If anything, paper would've been silenced twice, unless there was a role redirection or SG.

Well its not like you can really deny you visited him N1, so you're obviously not going to try and lie about that. Best to just confess it and play the "look how honest I am card" and then try and carry over that "honesty" to the whole silencer thing.

That being said and as easy as it would be for me and everyone to just jump on you right now for maybe being the silencer, tracker proof really isn't enough here. Granted, its more than nothing and it certaintly puts you in a bad position, but a tracker can't see everyone who targets a certain person. You're still not really doing the best job of being convincing though since we currently have more evidence to believe you are the silencer than that you aren't the silencer.

Also about the no N0 silencing thing, it depends on the alignment of the silencer. Town silencers might not use it on N0 because it just makes them look scummy silencing someone so randomly which is a detriment to the town.

[Helios]

Elie, I'm going to tell you why you shouldn't silence someone D1.

Whether you are scum or not, you want to look town. Silencing someone is a role that is generally viewed as scummy, but has the possibility of looking town so you have hope. By silencing someone D1, you are obviously hurting the town. By D1, you do not have enough knowledge of the players in the game to know who scummy and who isn't (not even Blitz can figure the scumteam out that fast lol), and silencing someone will easily hurt the town (if you silence a townie you lose their input and scumhunting, and if you silence scum then you lose the chance that they scumslip and get lynched, making the probability of mislynching higher). Therefore, you would look scummy. By at least waiting until D2, when more opinions of who's scum and who isn't are formed, you look much more townish. I believe Kay in GSM, who was the town silencer waited before using her role. You've played as scum before, and I believe you know at least a little of how to play things that way and are able to see things through the Mafia's eyes.

Regardless of what you say, facts are facts. You visited Paper N1 and right now we have no other knowledge of anyone else doing so. Are you suggesting that we simply deem this a "coincidence" and forget all about it because there's a less probable reason why Paper got silenced? And leave some of the only concrete proof about we know happened last night? I'm sorry, but I think that's not the best decision for the town right now. I will keep the possibility that you're not the silencer in the back of my head, but for now I'm gonna lean towards the possibility that you are silencer until more evidence is given. So I'm calling your bluff and keeping my vote on you.

On a side note I'm not sure whether to believe Marth or Manix's roles. I just think it's really weird that we have so many roles with the ability to redirect an action to someone else. I think both roles are fairly simple to fakeclaim since you can always just say you targeted someone who ended up being alive still. It's really not all that risky I don't think. However, based on meta, town!Manix always seems to breadcrumb his role from early in the game, as he did this game, so I guess I'm more inclined to believe him over Marth. For some reason I have this feeling that someone's lying.

Also Eclipse, I'm not asking you to out your target or anything, but I have a feeling you targeted a Nexus instead of someone hitting you with the redirect. Based on the structure of the game I just have a feeling some of the less popular roles like that are in the game. If you don't have any better targets in mind right now, maybe you could try targeting them again to see if that's the case? Don't get the wrong idea, I'm not telling you what to do or anything; it's just a thought that popped up in my head and I think it'd make town's job of scumhunting a little easier.

[eclipse]

Mornin'.

The reason why I shot was because I didn't want to die with my other half running around. Thanks to that SMS, I was able to narrow it down to "less than a random shot".

All Blitz's SMS said was that Elieson has a visiting role, and used it on Paperblade. If it has any other ill effects, they haven't manifested. Eli, if you'd be so kind, mind telling me what the hell you were doing to me N0 via SMS? I think I've made my alignment clear, and there's a good chance I'll die with that information tonight.

Helios, if you get the feeling of A or B, you say so BEFORE it happens, not afterwards. Your job isn't to make yourself look psychic, it's to help scumhunt (unless you're scum, in which case, bleh).

Subi, think about the implications of a scum!Safeguard. Then, think about whether or not you think Manix is telling the truth about his role.

And to everyone else that was confused by Blitz's past behavior. . .if I know him right, he was going to claim lynchproof. That's what I meant by Marth being screwed over. I'm not claiming the rest of my role for now, because it's stuff that no one needs to know. Yet.