Higurashi Mafia - Game over

[Shinori]

Poisoner and all that is still viable but stop saying it based off of flavor when it might have only been flavor for that characters way of dieing. Death flavor tells nothing.

[Shinori]

Oh hey ignore that post.

[CT075]

well i'm tempted to write this off a bastard mod but then again what do i know

[Balcerzak]

You're gonna have to pay me in brain bleach before I even think about watching Higurashi.

But it's a delightful and heartwarming drama about a group of friends banding together against adversity!

[Paperblade]

But it's a delightful and heartwarming drama about a group of friends banding together against adversity!

If I wanted that I would just reread any mafia game

[CT075]

Okay, thoughts:

Something just doesn't stack up here. BBM could not have been roleblocked N2, else I wouldn't have caught him. Kay cannot be the safeguard, since we already have a flip.

After a night of sleep, I basically came up with these scenarios as to what could have happened:

Scenario 1:

BBM is telling the truth, but couldn't save Bizz from the poisoner. N1, BBM saves Clipseykitty from the mafia nightkill but the poisoner goes through on Bizz. Night two, BBM is unable to save Bizz from the poison, Kay does something and Balcerzak is maf'd.

Questions: What was Kay doing?

Problems: I can't really think of any.

sounds most likely to me

admittedly i am dumb and actually changed my target from Bizz to BBM at the last second on a whim; i could have actually found out who the poisoner was if this was the case but that's a postgame thing

Scenario 2:

BBM is telling the truth. Kay is some kind of maf hitman who kills Bizz through Doctor protection. Night two, either ITP or town Vig kills Bal. Roleblocker gets maf kill n1?

Questions: hahaha

Problems: very unlikely, seeing as the maf probably could have pierced n1 protection maybe? roleblocker still works (i guess?) but then that's kind of farfetched. I'm not going to go so far as to ask someone to out.

not very likely and i came up with it at 3 in the morning

Scenario 3:

BBM is lying and performed the kill on Bizz. Kay is some form of friendly-fire proof Interceptor (which actually doesn't sound so improbable considering flavor but is also likely BROKEN AS FUCK) and caught Bal trying to track.

Questions: how likely is this anyway i came up with it just now and i'm sleep-deprived

Problems: hahaha friendly-fire proof interceptor i'm just stretching things now

Scenario 4:

The Hinazawa syndrome is a slow-acting poison that everyone in the game suffers from. A mafia poisoner exists, and just speeds the syndrome along. When it reaches critical stage, they get to shoot once before they die.

The former sounds more probable considering Bizz's role; the latter just sounds improbable now that someone suggested poisoner (which I did not think of). So a few things could have happened regarding the N1 kill:

BBM stopped the namekill on Eclipse

maf was roleblocked

maf NK'd (terrible)

something else i'm probably missing

N2:

okay I can't really think of any likely scenario here

In flavor, I doubt that Bizz's role would let her die from the syndrome. So I'm forced to conclude that one of these things happened:

Bal reached critical stage and shot Bizz. The maf also targeted Bizz (with Kay, or a ninja). BBM saved her from one shot and the other goes through. Unlikely due to the fact that I would have seen them on her.

BBM shot Bizz, dunno what Kay was doing and bal died due to poison

Problems: THIS EXPLANATION IS CONTRIVED AS FUCK

there are a ton of other scenarios involving a town vig but this is the only info I can solidly put my finger on:

If there is a poisoner, my revealing myself has accomplished essentially nothing (gg me)

If BBM is telling the truth, there is basically a confirmed poisoner (since Bizz) (gg me again)

If BBM is lying, it potentially clears Kay since sending two maf's is just overkill. (gg BBM)

If Kay is scum, then I wonder why BBM didn't save Bizz (gg BBM)

If Kay is town, it basically confirms that there is a poisoner (gg me)

and anything i missed

Opinions?

[CT075]

admittedly i am dumb and actually changed my target from Bizz to BBM at the last second on a whim; i could have actually found out who the poisoner was if this was the case but that's a postgame thing

*on n1

[Shinori]

Just because kay would be town wouldn't mean there is defintely a poisoner. We would have to have kay and BBM both role town for that to happen.

[CT075]

err wait yeah i'm dumb

GO ME

[Shinori]

The most important part of this is BBM's doc claim, if BBM is doc then we pretty much should just avoid lynching either him or kay and assume there is a poisoner, which i still question because as I stated normally in games, if you are poisoned, you are informed of it. Also, if you are poisoned, doc's themselves can normall cleanse the poison, that was the only way of getting rid of the poison I had thought.

So if we believe BBM's doc claim we either lynch kay assuming she is some sort of hitman role or something, or we lynch neither of them and start looking for a better target while we have time to do so.

[CT075]

We only have like what, 30 hours left? I kind of want opinions from Eclipse and others while we go.

[BBM]

I think we should start looking for someone else to lynch. I'm not getting a scumread from Kay and if the kill on Bizz was so important they used a one-shot pierce, I'd question why they didn't target her N1. I think some sort of delayed kill is much more likely.

[Subieko]

Also, if you are poisoned, doc's themselves can normall cleanse the poison, that was the only way of getting rid of the poison I had thought.

Actually I think doc doesn't stop poison. According to mafiascum there is a poison doctor role (Elieson linked to it earlier in the thread), which prevents poisoning if the doc targets the person on the night they were poisoned. A standard doc wouldn't do a thing about it (I kinda thought that was part of the point of a poisoner). I don't know whether poisoned targets are told about it or not, but regardless this game is bastard mod so there's no reason to assume they would be told.

I'm worried about assuming there's a poisoner without much evidence, but I can't really think of other scenarios that make much sense at this point; they're all too complicated. At this point I don't want to lynch BBM and although I am slightly suspicious of Kay my suspicions are kind of weak--in her first two posts today I see a contradiction (her first post seems to assume BBM's claim is true, her second says she has no particular reason to believe it), and she's been lurky, but that's all I've got there.

I want to see better posts from Manix--so far his posts have only echoed/summed up what's been said by others and he hasn't put forth much of his own opinions. Aere has barely made any posts and hasn't contributed much either. I don't know if he's actually been here that much though, whereas Manix has been active in two other mafia games but not this one.

##Vote: Manix Let's see some opinions.

[Grace]

Okay, so what I've determined from D3 alone:

- BBM claims doctor, was on Bizz N2, Bizz still died. The flavor is indicating some form of poison, so the doc claim is possible. I'm not feeling the BBM lynch yet, but if he really is doc, he will probably be the next to die. Probably.

- Cam claims Watcher, and saw BBM and Kay visit Bizz N2. BBM is accounted for, but Kay we don't know why. Considering the poisoner, I don't think we have any more information from this at all right now. Outing Watcher didn't exactly help us much, and we've just given the mafia another target.

- There is a lot of talk about the Syndrome, and having never watched Higurashi, I can't help with the flavor. But from what it sounds like, I suspect that the people that have the Syndrome probably advance one stage each night, and then they reach a certain stage (5, I think Helios said), they go on a murdering spree. I really don't know. But I think it's the most likely possibility.

Another theory: The poisoner, which was the counterpart to Bizz's role, I think someone said something about the both of them working to find a cure, then the opposite took the cure and could actually cause the disease with it. Also, that person was referenced in Marth's role PM, hence the poisoner is likely maf. I think that maybe, only some people could go on the killing sprees if they hit critical. Others would just die instead, like Bizz. I think that the poisoner definitely has ties to the Syndrome, but for some people, it'll advance the Syndrome a number of stages, and then depending on the person, either they die or go on a killing spree. This is all speculation, because I honestly have no idea. (If this didn't make sense, ask me what the hell I'm thinking so that I can clarify)

I think that just about covers it for now.

not good enough for you?

okay then

[Helios]

Echo (echo...echo)

[Helios]

Poisoner and all that is still viable but stop saying it based off of flavor when it might have only been flavor for that characters way of dieing. Death flavor tells nothing.

Though I can't speak for the rest, I can say that I personally am not basing much off the flavor at all. I just think that the possibility of a poisoner is highly probable in this game due to the Hinamizawa syndrome. After all, Bizz was a poison-doctor. BBM and Kay were both caught visiting Bizz last night Protip to the watcher: ALWAYS visit Bizz N1 because scum love to kill her as fast as possible. BBM is claiming town doc, and Kay is claiming that she's town and it's all a coincidence. So assuming BBM is telling the truth (which I know you don't really believe Shinori) Kay is either a hitman or Bizz was poisoned N1. We could lynch Kay to confirm this, but IMO Kay hasn't looked scummy enough for a lynch (though she hasn't looked all that townish to me). Otherwise we should start looking for someone else to lynch.

[Grace]

Okay, so what I've determined from D3 alone:

- BBM claims doctor, was on Bizz N2, Bizz still died. The flavor is indicating some form of poison, so the doc claim is possible. I'm not feeling the BBM lynch yet, but if he really is doc, he will probably be the next to die. Probably.

- Cam claims Watcher, and saw BBM and Kay visit Bizz N2. BBM is accounted for, but Kay we don't know why. Considering the poisoner, I don't think we have any more information from this at all right now. Outing Watcher didn't exactly help us much, and we've just given the mafia another target.

- There is a lot of talk about the Syndrome, and having never watched Higurashi, I can't help with the flavor. But from what it sounds like, I suspect that the people that have the Syndrome probably advance one stage each night, and then they reach a certain stage (5, I think Helios said), they go on a murdering spree. I really don't know. But I think it's the most likely possibility.

Another theory: The poisoner, which was the counterpart to Bizz's role, I think someone said something about the both of them working to find a cure, then the opposite took the cure and could actually cause the disease with it. Also, that person was referenced in Marth's role PM, hence the poisoner is likely maf. I think that maybe, only some people could go on the killing sprees if they hit critical. Others would just die instead, like Bizz. I think that the poisoner definitely has ties to the Syndrome, but for some people, it'll advance the Syndrome a number of stages, and then depending on the person, either they die or go on a killing spree. This is all speculation, because I honestly have no idea. (If this didn't make sense, ask me what the hell I'm thinking so that I can clarify)

I think that just about covers it for now.

I decided to bold stuff. Guess what they are? Opinions. My opinions, namely. And no, I'm not going into list post territory just to give opinions on people. gfto if you think I'll do that

[Elieson]

Urgh. I suppose I'll have to wait for something better to come up. BBM, you're off my radar for now. Cam, same.

I absolutely refuse to Nolynch, and I need to vote for something, because being passive isn't going to get us anywhere.

Kay visited Bizz. Bizz died. BBM claimed Doc, but she died anyway. Either she was poisoned and we have nothing to go on other than she was poisoned by someone other than Kay/BBM, or one of them killed her. BBM claiming doc makes him valuable right now, but Kay, although not acting really scummy, is directly involved with a dead player.

##Vote Kay

I want a reason as to why we shouldn't vote for Kay. If anyone has a good strong reason, I'd love to hear it.

[Helios]

Haha I'm not asking you to listpost, I apologize it's just most of what you said had already been stated in the thread beforehand by people. You did come to the party a little late though so meh. Didn't mean to irritate you buddy.

##Vote Aere

I don't think I've put a vote on anyone this phase. Anyway Aere's been around but not around and he hasn't really said anything so far this phase so I'd like to hear more of his thoughts.

[eclipse]

Cam outing when he did wasn't a bad move, per se; one of his targets died.

Best post of the entire phase so far is here:

So if we believe BBM's doc claim we either lynch kay assuming she is some sort of hitman role or something, or we lynch neither of them and start looking for a better target while we have time to do so.

I'll buy BBM's doc claim, for now. What I haven't ascertained is whether or not Kay's town. She's not posting much, as usual.

I'd rather not see BBM lynched today; he said something back in D1 that makes me think he's telling the truth about his role. I don't want Cam lynched, either; I think the town has better things to do with their time. I think Helios is relying a bit too heavily on flavor, and Elie's talking (which is better than non-talking Elie). Subi's role is a Vengeful variant (check FE10 mafia way, WAY back to see something similar); this doesn't tell me much about her alignment, as we haven't ruled out third-parties yet. Aere needs to stop being as inactive as Rein. Now, then. . .

##Unvote

##Vote: Kay

I want opinions, thoughts, etc. Watcher confirming you on a dead person isn't very helpful.

[Helios]

Normally I wouldn't use flavor as nothing more than a possible factor for a game, but it's just that this game in particular seems to be tied in a bit with the flavor, so I think it's at least something to think about and could possibly help explain stuff. After all, JB himself said "bastard modding because Higurashi". At least with the Hinamizawa syndrome that is still an unknown in the game right now, it could help us with trying to figure out how it works.

Also in respect to the death flavor, I think rule 17 applies moreso to flavor like "Paperblade's head blew up therefore scorri died" than the way Bizz or Bal died, but that's just my opinion on it.

[eclipse]

I wouldn't rely too heavily on it; this isn't Disgaea: The Sequel. Focus on the people here.

[Kay]

Eli, BBM, and Helios are looking scummiest in my opinion right now. Helios least so, Eli would be most but I don't know what to think of that watcher report, so BBM is looking worst right now. Cam and Shinori look townish.

As far as my opinions on BBM's claim, I basically figured that since the results were fishy, most likely cause was him lying, but one of us lying is a pretty obvious possibility, so I thought bringing up other stuff that could have happened would be more useful.

[eclipse]

Looks like you're not contesting it. Hmmm. . .something tells me that pursuing Kay/BBM is a waste of time (for now).

##Unvote

I'm really tired right now, and Aere needs to chime in. Once I'm coherent, I'll place a vote.

[BBM]

Alright, I'm going to ##Vote: Manix right now. Why? To begin with, I found Rapier's behaviour scummy. Now, he is one of those people who always seem scummy, but some posts like "Lol BBM you're unlucky for rolling scum and getting lynched D1 twice in a row" before I got lynched and before I flipped were really messed up. And then Manix's post. It was 10+ lines long but as you can see from the bolded lines, it could mostly have been summed up in 3-4 lines. To add to that, only the first line, about him not feeling the lynch on me, is actually important. The rest is a lot of repeating what others have said. Finally, he was also one of the people who auto-bandwagoned on my lynch with Cam's Watcher report even though it was equally likely, disregarding the Poisoner and all that, that Kay could have been the killer.

I think Helios is also slightly scummy because he's focusing a lot on the flavour instead of scumhunting. However, he was one of the people, IIRC, who helped puzzle out that there could be a Poisoner, and he was also one of the people who didn't auto-bandwagon on my lynch as soon as Cam made his report, although I think he came in after I'd already claimed.