Higurashi Mafia - Game over

[BBM]

I'm not the Bodyguard. I'm the Doctor. Since my character is a bodyguard, he can prevent people from dying, making his role Doctor. I confirmed that I am the Doctor.

[Elieson]

Just trying to confirm the deets

[CT075]

I'd like opinions from whoever hasn't spoken yet (Aere, Manix [what little you already said does not count], Shinori), please. Get out here.

[Shinori]

I have posted my thoughts on what I think about the poison doctor. Also that role is called a rogue I believe.

They choose a target, if killed by that target that night they kill their killer as well. It's not a bomb because they have to choose correctly.

Side note something I noticed, HE said if he get's killed by that target at night or in the NEXT DAY he kills that target as well.

Implying day kills of some sort.

[Elieson]

Or implying a lynch.

[Elieson]

Is how I interpreted it anyway.

[Elieson]

And subi says her role kills whoever she picks, but only if she is killed.

[Shinori]

Oh. Hrm. Dunno. Still seems like a type of rogue to me.

[Subieko]

Eclipse said my role is called Vengeful. I think it's a non-standard one though, because according to mafiascum Vengeful kills whoever kills it, including kills with lynches. But to clarify: I can choose a player at night. If I am killed that night or the next day, my chosen player dies too. I assumed the day part meant due to lynches but it's not specified in my role PM, it just says if I die.

It's like a bomb I guess, but it only works if I use my night action and only on the person on target, not just whoever kills me.

Also, I've been thinking more about things, and are we reasonably sure Bizz died from a Poisoner? I know that in the death flavor she died from being infected with the Hinamizawa syndrome, but as Shinori pointed out, the rules say the flavor won't tell us anything. Thus I'm assuming Poisoner is just the most plausible scenario? Because the meaning of the Watcher report depends heavily on how Bizz died. Also, Elieson, you're calling Bizz a Poison Doctor, but I read the mafiascum page you linked and that's not what her role did. Poison Doctor protects their target from being poisoned (and the mafiascum page said they had to target the person on the same night that they are poisoned). Bizz reduces the Hinamizawa Syndrome by three levels, and we still don't know what the Hinamizawa Syndrome does.

Based on what Helios has said it seems that the Hinamizawa Syndrome was really important to this anime, so having it only be relevant to a Poisoner role seems odd, but that's complete speculation. More importantly, though, it's not clear to me that Bizz's role implies the existence of a standard Poisoner role.

After rereading, I actually feel a bit better about BBM because of this:

There might be a Poisoner who speeds the process along, but I'm thinking it's more likely that the syndrome happens by itself than that it's caused solely by a Poisoner.

This was BBM's response to Elieson's suggestion that Bizz died from a Poisoner. Given that a poison death would make the Watcher report non-incriminating, I think that if BBM was scum he would've jumped on the Poisoner theory and tried to convince everyone it was true. But instead he disputed it and tried to defend himself in other ways. I don't think scum would have passed up such a good opportunity to get suspicion off themselves.

However, I'm concerned with Kay.

Guys, this is totally weird. I am indeed no Safeguard, nor do those results make sense. It must have been some non-targeting (at least that phase) kill, like Poisoner or PGO or maybe there could actually be something like a one-shot ninja/hitman. I'd prefer to not claim, but it shouldn't do too much harm if I have to, at this point.

I have no particular reason to believe it. I guess I disbelieve it, since I was already pretty suspicious of BBM even before this, and those results are not very possible. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that he's telling the truth, but, well, I'm okay with the risk.

Those are Kay's two posts from today. Her first response to the whole situation was that Bizz's death must have been caused by a role that wouldn't have shown up on the Watcher report. The only reason to assume the killer was not on the Watcher report is if she thought BBM was telling the truth. But when Eclipse pressed her for her views on BBM's claim, she made the second post. There she says she has no reason to believe BBM's claim and is not convinced he's telling the truth. But if that's the case, why did she assume in her first post that BBM was not the killer? It also bothers me that in her first post, Kay didn't even mention BBM's claim.

If Bizz did indeed die from a Poisoner, then it's true, the Watcher report doesn't tell us anything--or maybe it even clears BBM and Kay, since presumably scum wouldn't have any reason to visit Bizz if they knew she would die from poison that night. So...how sure can we be that Bizz died of poison? I ask because I'm just not sure how likely any other scenarios are.

[CT075]

Who else died? Balcerzak?

I dunno what to think anymore >_>

[eclipse]

Lunch break, whee.

Balcerzak was the other death.

If we're assuming a third-party, then how (un)likely is it for said third-party to be a wolf? I researched my character, but I'm not entirely sure how the rest of the characters fit together; you're gonna have to pay me in brain bleach before I even think about watching Higurashi.

[eclipse]

Wait.

##Vote: Manix

If you have time to yammer elsewhere in the mafia subforums, you have time to check this game. Your lack of contributions isn't helping.

[CT075]

MANIX GET IN HERE OR I WILL HAVE LIERIS KIDNAP YOU FOR THE REST OF ETERNITY ONCE AGAIN

[Grace]

alright, geez

I did just wake up

gimme a break

More in a bit, although have some current thoughts on my limited knowledge:

- The two mafia's idea that was put out there is unlikely

- I'm not a raging psychopath yet (if at all)

- If Bizz was killed by a poisoner, then the Watcher report isn't exactly conclusive, meaning that BBM might still be doc.

##Unvote

[eclipse]

Vote stays because I wanna "just wake up" at 11 AM.

There's been stuff thrown back and forth across this day; what ELSE do you think of it?

[Grace]

ahem, more like 9:30 - 10, but whatev

lemme read it again. I've been following most of the game, but don't actually have well established thoughts right now.

[Grace]

Okay, so what I've determined from D3 alone:

- BBM claims doctor, was on Bizz N2, Bizz still died. The flavor is indicating some form of poison, so the doc claim is possible. I'm not feeling the BBM lynch yet, but if he really is doc, he will probably be the next to die. Probably.

- Cam claims Watcher, and saw BBM and Kay visit Bizz N2. BBM is accounted for, but Kay we don't know why. Considering the poisoner, I don't think we have any more information from this at all right now. Outing Watcher didn't exactly help us much, and we've just given the mafia another target.

- There is a lot of talk about the Syndrome, and having never watched Higurashi, I can't help with the flavor. But from what it sounds like, I suspect that the people that have the Syndrome probably advance one stage each night, and then they reach a certain stage (5, I think Helios said), they go on a murdering spree. I really don't know. But I think it's the most likely possibility.

Another theory: The poisoner, which was the counterpart to Bizz's role, I think someone said something about the both of them working to find a cure, then the opposite took the cure and could actually cause the disease with it. Also, that person was referenced in Marth's role PM, hence the poisoner is likely maf. I think that maybe, only some people could go on the killing sprees if they hit critical. Others would just die instead, like Bizz. I think that the poisoner definitely has ties to the Syndrome, but for some people, it'll advance the Syndrome a number of stages, and then depending on the person, either they die or go on a killing spree. This is all speculation, because I honestly have no idea. (If this didn't make sense, ask me what the hell I'm thinking so that I can clarify)

I think that just about covers it for now.

[Shinori]

Death flaor indicates nothing so we don't know if she was poisoned.

[Grace]

okay still, even then. ignore the first point as a fact, but it's still a possibility.

[CT075]

- Cam claims Watcher, and saw BBM and Kay visit Bizz N2. BBM is accounted for, but Kay we don't know why. Considering the poisoner, I don't think we have any more information from this at all right now. Outing Watcher didn't exactly help us much, and we've just given the mafia another target.

to be fair i never even thought of poisoner until i brought things up soooo

[Jaybee]

about 36 more hours

[Aere]

If BBM really is doctor, he'll probably die tonight. Who has he protected so far? And where is proof of those actions?

[Subieko]

If BBM really is doctor, he'll probably die tonight. Who has he protected so far? And where is proof of those actions?

His claimed targets are Eclipse N1 and Bizz N2; Cam claims Watcher and says he saw BBM and Kay visiting Bizz N2 so I suppose that's all the proof you're likely to get.

I'd like to see your thoughts on whether BBM's claim is true, and on who you think is scum.

[Kay]

I reread the thread some, and this caught my eye. Could this imply a lack of ITP?

Or just that any ITP could joint with the mafia, or the mafia isn't affected by them.

Off the top of my head I remember that Rena had it advance pretty far because she moved out of Hinamizawa, but when she moved back it calmed down a bit. The Hojos had it pretty bad too: Satoshi had it so bad that he disappeared a year before the main story happens (and everyone assumes he either moved away or died), and Satoko also had it bad and had to suppress it with a bunch of shots each day. Jirou on the other hand never had Hinamizawa syndrome, but with the bioweapon Takano created she gave him a shot of it and he died that night. That's all I can think of at the moment.

That sounds very, very much like a standard Poisoner. Maybe there's a poisoner with the standard effect of the target dying the next night, and also the Hinamizawa syndrome mentioned in Bizz's role?

[Shinori]

17. If you see your user name in the flavour, it means that you were randomly chosen to do something, so don't sweat it. If you see your role name in the flavour, it probably means nothing. That being said, kill flavour won't tell you anything, and since I don't care about standard responses to night actions, the flavour which I give for night actions also means nothing.