SSB4: SSB for Wii U and 3DS, maybe the NX and also your toaster!

[Florete]

I don't think you fully grasp the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker "randomly" guessing newcomers.

Wii Fit Trainer I don't believe was on a single character list, prediction list, etc. If she was, please link it to me. One doesn't just "accidentally" guess Wii Fit Trainer.

Then there's the fact that he went six for six guessing newcomers for the first leak. Imagine flipping six coins, and correctly calling the outcome of all of them. Now imagine one of those coins is replaced by a 1000 sided die to represent Wii Fit Trainer. The chances of predicting the number on that die PLUS the outcome of five consecutive coin flips is astronomically low. Well, specifically, there's a 0.003125% chance of it happening....

Trying to argue that the leak was pure luck just completely ignores basic probability. Especially when there's a much more logical explanation (that being, that there is in fact a person who leaked details of the game).

This is not accurate at all. Guesses like Little Mac and Palutena are hardly coin flips; many people expected them, chances were high. Guesses like "Animal Crossing guy" (the supposed Villager guess) and "X/Y Pokemon" are vague and cover a lot of ground, decreasing the validity of them. Megaman, Pac-Man, and Mii are on the luckier side, but not at all out of bounds; Megaman was an extremely popular fan choice, Namco is developing the game and Pac-Man is a very iconic character, and Miis have been invading a lot of Nintendo titles. For the record, I myself guessed Little Mac, Palutena, and Mii, and Pac-Man seemed a likely choice when I considered the evidence (which Gematsu had nothing to do with). Basically, those three are the only ones that could be considered coin flips. The rest are more like rolling a 10-sided and guessing it won't land on 10.

Without Wii Fit Trainer, the "leak" wouldn't even be worth a second glance. That's an outlier and the only reason I don't just scoff at the list completely.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Red Fox of Fire

[Don Draper]

This is not accurate at all. Guesses like Little Mac and Palutena are hardly coin flips; many people expected them, chances were high. Guesses like "Animal Crossing guy" (the supposed Villager guess) and "X/Y Pokemon" are vague and cover a lot of ground, decreasing the validity of them. Megaman, Pac-Man, and Mii are on the luckier side, but not at all out of bounds; Megaman was an extremely popular fan choice, Namco is developing the game and Pac-Man is a very iconic character, and Miis have been invading a lot of Nintendo titles. For the record, I myself guessed Little Mac, Palutena, and Mii, and Pac-Man seemed a likely choice when I considered the evidence (which Gematsu had nothing to do with).

Without Wii Fit Trainer, the "leak" wouldn't even be worth a second glance. That's an outlier and the only reason I don't just scoff at the list completely.

In my original argument, I was specially referring to the first six newcomers that were leaked. I was actually being generous by not factoring in the second leak. Regardless of how "vague" or "expected" those two additional newcomers are (Palutena, Greninja), their chances of being correctly predicted are less than 100%. By bringing these newcomers into the fold, you've weakened your argument, not strengthened it.

"Animal Crossing guy" is broad, but I would still argue that the chances of any Animal Crossing newcomer being randomly predicted are equal to or less than 50%. Sakurai had specifically stated his reasoning for why an Animal Crossing character wasn't in Brawl, and most had assumed his reasoning would hold true for the next Smash game.

I should also mention the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker's "lucky guesses" being submitted as a leak. This roster "prediction" didn't happen in a vacuum; it was emailed to Gematsu claiming to be leaked information. Our of all the roster predictions that were made prior to Smash Wii U's reveal, how many actually claimed to be leaks?

In the end, we're arguing semantics. It's already statistically improbable that Wii Fit Trainer alone was a lucky guess, and I don't understand how somebody could argue that the chances of the roster being leaked are any lower than this. Especially considering another high-profile Nintendo release (Pokemon X/Y) was leaked in a similar fashion. Brawl's roster was also leaked before release, albeit, only a month before release as opposed to years before

By the way, I'm sure you know this already, but a Rythym Heaven enemy has been confirmed to appear in Smash Run. It's only a matter of time until Chorus Men are confirmed:

[Florete]

In my original argument, I was specially referring to the first six newcomers that were leaked. I was actually being generous by not factoring in the second leak. Regardless of how "vague" or "expected" those two additional newcomers are (Palutena, Greninja), their chances of being correctly predicted are less than 100%. By bringing these newcomers into the fold, you've weakened your argument, not strengthened it.

Of course it's less than 100%.

Uh, I don't know what you're trying to swing to say my argument is weakened. I'm taking the Gematsu leak as a whole. What would be the point of trying to "strengthen" it by not considering the whole thing?

I should also mention the statistical improbability of the Gematsu leaker's "lucky guesses" being submitted as a leak. This roster "prediction" didn't happen in a vacuum; it was emailed to Gematsu claiming to be leaked information. Our of all the roster predictions that were made prior to Smash Wii U's reveal, how many actually claimed to be leaks?

There could easily have been plenty more submitted as leaks that were proven false and, therefore, never spoken about.

[Don Draper]

Of course it's less than 100%.

Uh, I don't know what you're trying to swing to say my argument is weakened. I'm taking the Gematsu leak as a whole. What would be the point of trying to "strengthen" it by not considering the whole thing?

Then I will include Palutena/Greninja, and consider Palutena and Little Mac's chances as 85% as opposed to 50%. I'm now getting an estimated 0.002258% chance of the Gematsu leaker correctly predicting Little Mac, Palutena, Mii Fighter, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, PacMan and Mega Man through sheer dumb luck. Of course this isn't scientific by any means, but it does hopefully illustrate how improbable this scenario is.

There could easily have been plenty more submitted as leaks that were proven false and, therefore, never spoken about

Right, but the point I was trying to make was that the amount of predicted rosters that were submitted as leaks is significantly lower than the total amount of predicted rosters period. It's another variable to account for.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Don Draper

[Robinigo]

I understand it's a low chance, like borderline impossible low, but it's still a chance. I'm still open to the possibility that maybe the person who leaked these characters to Gematsu did receive the E3 list of characters beforehand somehow, sort of like how Mario Maker was leaked prior to E3 this year. However he only received the E3 characters and Little Mac, the second set is just a set of safe guesses with an oddball thrown in, but that's about all I'm willing to surrender to Gematsu

[Jave]

Pardon me, but I don't recall the Gematsu leak mentioning any cut other than Lucas.

Actually... a more through search shows you're right. I was originally looking at an article that was talking about several leaks and got confused. Sorry about that, my mistake.

But still, my original point still stands, since it does seem that Lucas isn't bulletproof.

[WIRE Shut]

So by this DYKG post backed by Siliconera, we can see that they chose characters at the start of development, so the Gematsu leaker can have seen the characters list at really early development.(IDK if this is has been posted here yet)

Edited June 18, 2014 by Deino

[Carter]

NOOOOOOOOOOO. Looks like it's time to say goodbye to Lucas : [ (but i'll bookmark this page just in case Lucas actually isn't cut, and I can go tell myself he isn't).

At least I can bet on Ness returning.

And, did anyone think Zero Suit wasn't returning (idk why, but I just did. but after she was revealed to come back, I realized Metroid's severely low number of good reps).

I didn't think Lucario or Toon Link was either, but I'm glad they're all back in the end.

[Florete]

I understand it's a low chance, like borderline impossible low, but it's still a chance. I'm still open to the possibility that maybe the person who leaked these characters to Gematsu did receive the E3 list of characters beforehand somehow, sort of like how Mario Maker was leaked prior to E3 this year. However he only received the E3 characters and Little Mac, the second set is just a set of safe guesses with an oddball thrown in, but that's about all I'm willing to surrender to Gematsu

This idea is one I'm willing to believe. It's not too out of line to suggest the E3 reveals were leaked, but the rest came a bit randomly. (And where was Rosalina in the leak?)

So by this DYKG post backed by Siliconera, we can see that they chose characters at the start of development, so the Gematsu leaker can have seen the characters list at really early development.(IDK if this is has been posted here yet)

We pretty much all know about this already.

[Robinigo]

So by this DYKG post backed by Siliconera, we can see that they chose characters at the start of development, so the Gematsu leaker can have seen the characters list at really early development.(IDK if this is has been posted here yet)

I actually didn't know this yet, this sort of discredits my thought a little bit, but I still think he might have somehow just got his hands on the show notes and not the full roster. Ah, wait, he had Little Mac too...

Has the person who "leaked" all of this stated whether this is all the newcomers?

Edited June 18, 2014 by Spiky

[WIRE Shut]

I just posted it to see if it was of any interest, either way I don't know if they would scrap a character after they have been chosen, same thing with considering characters if they haven't been chosen at the beginning.

[Robert Stewart]

So by this DYKG post backed by Siliconera, we can see that they chose characters at the start of development, so the Gematsu leaker can have seen the characters list at really early development.(IDK if this is has been posted here yet)

I already see people saying this hurts the Gematsu leak.

Allow me to remind you of what Sakurai actually said.

All of the characters to consider were on our internal roster from the beginning of development. We had a slot for a new Pokemon reserved, but did not way for X and Y. We decided to use Greninja well before X/Y came out, based on early reference drawings.

At some point early in development, there was a placeholder slot for a new Pokemon character. Sometime between the start of Smash's development (March 2012) and the release of X/Y (October 2013), Sakurai decided on Greninja.

Edited June 18, 2014 by shinpichu

[TheWill]

I vaguely recall hearing he said something about the Miis, which is a pretty good guess; I think most of us figured we wouldn't get them because they hadn't made it into Brawl.

Actually, the general consensus upon Mii's having a stage for both Tomodachi Life and Find Mii made a lot of people acknowledge they were likely candidates to be playable characters. I was actually one of the people adamantly against Mii's, but posters here convinced me otherwise.

I'm now getting an estimated 0.002258% chance of the Gematsu leaker correctly predicting Little Mac, Palutena, Mii Fighter, Villager, Wii Fit Trainer, Greninja, PacMan and Mega Man through sheer dumb luck. Of course this isn't scientific by any means, but it does hopefully illustrate how improbable this scenario is.

Oh, man! Firstly, he didn't predict Greninja. Secondly man, I'd like to see your estimated percentage for only five-seven, since in the bet thread alone here at Serenesforest, many people must be predicting geniuses.

Edited June 18, 2014 by SlipperySlippy

[Robinigo]

Actually, the general consensus upon Mii's having a stage for both Tomodachi Life and Find Mii made a lot of people acknowledge they were likely candidates to be playable characters. I was actually one of the people adamantly against Mii's, but posters here convinced me otherwise.

Ah, I had forgotten about that. My bad then, although it helps my argument a little this way.

But what doesn't help me is that thing from DYKG, in fact, that can probably only help give the Gematsu "leak" more credibility. Say this person got their hands on an early character list, since as stated, characters were decided months before Smash 4 was revealed, maybe Greninja was still listed as X/Y pokemon, or villager didn't have an official name and was listed as animal crossing guy. I still don't believe it, but it's worth looking at something like this with an unbiased point of view. The whole Rhythm Heaven enemy in Smash Run just says to me that we have some sort of Rhythm Heaven representation in the new game, maybe not necessarily the Chorus Men. The samurai is unique for a swordfighter, or karate Joe could be a different sort of bare-fisted fighter. I guess my main concern about the Chorus Men is that I just don't know how on Earth they could be played, I have this sort of one-at-a-time pokemon trainer style character in mind where they switch between the three little characters and each has its own characteristics to its attacks, but that qualifies as a transformation, so I've got nothing.

[Don Draper]

Oh, man! Firstly, he didn't predict Greninja.

He had leaked "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y". I would absolutely say the chances of one making this exact prediction prior to Greninja's reveal and having that prediction be correct would be around 50% You can argue whether it's 70% or whatever, but it really doesn't change anything.

Secondly man, I'd like to see your estimated percentage for only five-seven, since in the bet thread alone here at Serenesforest, many people must be predicting geniuses.

Show me the posts, I'd be happy to calculate the estimated chances. Note that these people cannot have a single deconfirmed character on their list in order to hold them to the same standard as the Gematsu leaker. I'll tell you right now though, unless Wii Fit Trainer was on any of these lists, the percentages will not be even remotely close.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Don Draper

[Florete]

But what doesn't help me is that thing from DYKG, in fact, that can probably only help give the Gematsu "leak" more credibility. Say this person got their hands on an early character list, since as stated, characters were decided months before Smash 4 was revealed, maybe Greninja was still listed as X/Y pokemon, or villager didn't have an official name and was listed as animal crossing guy.

That DYKG post helps the Gematsu leak in no way. Everything you've stated here is mere speculation; Sakurai didn't even say the slot was for a Pokemon from X and Y, just that they were going to add a new Pokemon - him saying they weren't waiting for X and Y even suggests there were many other candidates. It's also doubtful Villager would ever have been listed as "Animal Crossing guy." The way I see it, the roster having been finalized early in production would also mean that their names were also finalized.

Also, while the initial leak (with "Animal Crossing guy") came just before E3 2013, the second part (with "Pokemon from Pokemon X and Y) came just before the April Direct. Why would a leak from the same source (in that he would supposedly be looking at early documents) come so much later, and if it wasn't from the same source, why so vague?

Suggesting he saw early development documents also makes one wonder why Rosalina was conspicuously left out.

[Ercdouken]

Rosalina was revealed before the second Genmatsu leak so no reason to mention her.

I think it's possible:

A: The leaker assumed the new Pokemon was for the Pokemon from X/Y

B: The leaker didn't know or forgot the name of the Pokemon (Same can be said for the Villager being called Animal Crossing Guy)

Edited June 18, 2014 by Dark Legend Vampire

[Naui]

Rosalina was revealed before the second Genmatsu leak so no reason to mention her.

I think it's possible:

A: The leaker assumed the new Pokemon was for the Pokemon from X/Y

B: The leaker didn't know or forgot the name of the Pokemon (Same can be said for the Villager being called Animal Crossing Guy)

But the argument about Genmatsu is that he got the development notes before the newcomers were finalized. Rosalina was the FIRST newcomer revealed after E3 and was revealed WAY BEFORE Pac-Man and the Miis, who were confirmed over a year later and Little Mac who was revealed AFTER Rosalina. All newcomers were picked before they began development, no excuses for not putting Rosalina.

To debunk your B thing. He called it "animal crossing guy". However, remember that Smash is developed in Japan where the AC Villagers are called Murabito, which literally means Villager. if he had gotten this from Sakurai or the development team before E3 2013, it's super easy to make that translation and call it that. Calling it "Animal Crossing Guy" hurts his credibility. And defidentally does not support the not knowing the Pokémon name given that the second leak came hours before Greninja's reveal itself. No excuse to not know the name of Greninja or Gekkouga by then.

[Alertcircuit]

A theory that explains Rosalina's exclusion is that the 6 characters from the original leak were supposed to be shown at E3 2013, or the 6 characters were the pool they were choosing from for E3 reveals. Rosalina wasn't meant to be shown off at E3, therefore they didn't put her on the list.

And although "animal crossing guy" and "pokemon x/y" may hurt their credibility, remember that they got "mii fighters" right.

[Robert Stewart]

The fact that he guessed an Animal Crossing character at all helps his credibility, considering that Sakurai dismissed the possibility of a character being in Brawl for being "too peaceful."

[Quintessence]

Perhaps the leaker doesn't want to arouse suspicion and plays around with the guesses and/or misses a couple of them to avoid being so evident. Who knows?

[Anacybele]

Guys, we'll find out if Gematsu was legit soon enough, really. The Japan release of the 3DS version is about three months away and we'll surely get the full roster then. xP

Now Sakurai showed us a sneak peek of a new 3DS mini-game! Trophy Rush! For some reason, this version of IE sucks and won't let me paste the link to the Miiverse post. My laptop recently stopped working AGAIN (and with the exact same problem it had six months ago that I got it repaired for), so I'm forced to borrow my mom's PC.

[NoNameAtAll]

Guys, we'll find out if Gematsu was legit soon enough, really. The Japan release of the 3DS version is about three months away and we'll surely get the full roster then. xP

Now Sakurai showed us a sneak peek of a new 3DS mini-game! Trophy Rush! For some reason, this version of IE sucks and won't let me paste the link to the Miiverse post. My laptop recently stopped working AGAIN (and with the exact same problem it had six months ago that I got it repaired for), so I'm forced to borrow my mom's PC.

Ana, IE sucks by proxy. I'd recommend giving her Firefox or Chrome. Anything but IE.

That said, the trophy rush looks more fun than the coin launcher. Or at least more involved.

[kingddd]

now that I remember there was a grab the trophy minigame in classic mode isn't there? I always failed at that.

[IceBrand]

now that I remember there was a grab the trophy minigame in classic mode isn't there? I always failed at that.

There was. You were in a small room ontop of clouds and had to catch the trophies falling.