Musical Chairs Mafia, Town Wins, the Mod Loses

[Zkirsche]

@Strege only BBM.

[Zkirsche]

I should clarify that that suspicion kinda relies on you being mafia.

[BBM]

Well this sure has been a day! I would vote Shinori for selectively responding to SB's (admittedly bad) vote on him and not addressing the other questions that people have asked him, but I have a feeling that if he were scum, he would self-hammer, and I don't particularly want to cut this low-on-content phase short.

[Strege]

I pretty much can't think of anything to say that I haven't already. It seems like everyone has like one scumread (if that!), maybe in addition to Shinori who doesn't have much content, and it's hard to analyze things when people aren't at least trying to push a case. There are only seven players left. One is confirmed town in SB, one of them is you (if you aren't SB), and two of the remaining five are scum. We can begin working off of process of elimination effectively but people aren't even doing that. Shinori isn't confirmed scum by a longshot considering the inactivity we've seen -- heck, the scumteam could have forgotten to send in their action and gone to bed or work depending on their timezones. I'm voting Shinori because I think he's scummy but even if he's scum and town wins, if it was because we blindly followed mod information I'm going to be very sad because I didn't get to play a mafia game.

[/rant]

[BBM]

TBF I think Shin is the only one voting Shinori or finding him suspicious solely because of the Kay kill information that NNR apparently gave. SB was talking about lynching Shinori even yesterday, and what we're saying about him isn't about that either.

[Shin]

It's also the poor quality of posts, saying "Eli is town" and then trying to lynch him next post because he thought we hadn't hammered. That was my main reason, the slip from Neko was only the icing on the cake.

[charlie_]

To be fair last phase he tried to stop universal loss. It's just kind of opportunistic timing to show up so close to phase end.

[The Objection!]

@Strege, I never really felt better about Elie, I just never felt worse. I just considered some players more lynch worthy than Elie.

A Kay kill? Maybe the mafia was to inactive to make a nightkill and Neko just decided to take advantage and kill the inactive?

As for reads, I don't know if Shinori is scum but I suppose it's highly possible. Can't really say more because there's not really much more to say with him being an inactive and all... I'll have to reread others a bit, but nothing stood up to me quite yet.

My best bet is BBM, but even then it's not really that good now that I think about it...

Vote will come later after I do a bit of rereading. If there's even somebody worth voting who had more than 3 content posts if you can call Shinori's no-evidence opinions that.

[NekoRex]

Been busy the last day or so. Still busy so no time for a VC. If anyone needs me send me a query via IRC.

Also, Scorri subs in for Shinori. Or I might hydra them. Haven't decided yet, but scorri is more reliable then Shinori atm so she's in front whatever the case.

[Zkirsche]

I take back what I said about BBM, he wouldn't let Kay die. It would really help if all our investigation roles didn't die before they were used.

Is there any point in letting this phase continue? Discussion is dead until we can PoE from town reads.

[scorri]

Ok!

Hi. So, I'm going to read real quick and try to see if I can figure out some of this stuff.

Real quick though:

Right now only clear we have is SB due to him shooting someone N1, yes?

[charlie_]

Yes.

[scorri]

Ugh, ok. So apparently I'm subbing into a slot that's about to get lynched for inactivity and lack of content. ~wonderful~

So. Right. Ok, first things first.

Clearly I can't explain everything that was going through Shinori's mind when he made some of his posts. All I can do is start afresh and hopefully convince you guys as to why I'm not scummy.

So, some things.

1) That Elie lynch was terrible. It completely ignored the fact that there had been no BPV claim since Elie's original claim of it when there wasn't a mafia kill.

So! Going back and looking at the Elie lynch, we get this:

Elie (6): Shin, BBM, Strege, kirsche, SB(clear town), Shinori(obvitownwouldneverlynchFMPOV)

So, if we go and look at the people who were the push on the Elie lynch, what do we get?

Shin: Votes Elie because his posts seem empty, the fact that his BBM case was fairly empty and then dropped quickly and doesn't seem to have real opinions. He pushes BBM for some interesting points, then calls out Elie for talking about lynching inactives and says that lynching inactives for the sake of inactivity is scummy. But then he comes in and votes Shinori/me for inactivity and the vote that Shinori made in what was pretty clearly an attempt to prevent a universal loss. It wasn't clear that Elie was hammered, so why shouldn't he attempt to vote Elie. That little bit of hypocrisy is pinging my radar some. He was the first vote on Elie, could believe he's scum.

BBM: Votes Elie because of his suspicion of Kay due to Kay's inactivity, Elie's Darros vote giving "too much wiggle room", pushes for the Elie lynch by talking about universal loss, and then gets into a major slap fight with Elie. Honestly the slap fight has me leaning more towards town on BBM. Partially gut, partially that his reasoning in the slap fight is decent and doesn't read forced like his slap fights often do when he's scum. 0/10 would not lynch today.

Strege: First off, seems to be voting my slot simply for inactivity? Unless I'm misunderstanding what he said earlier, his scum order was originally kirsche, shin, objection, me. If I misread that, and the order is in fact flipped, well, please explain why I'm scummy beyond inactivity. If it's just inactivity, I would like to point you to Kay. Besides that, votes Elie at a point where the wagons could have been going any way. He's really the tipping point for the wagon I'd say and his reasons for doing so are... lackluster at best. Partially "them over me", partially because Elie's gut reads change (new information causes new reads, otherwise what's the point in playing?), talks about how he could be distancing Darros, but how actually those interactions read more town than scum, and then some stuff that basically comes down to "his darros interaction was town but his push on BBM was scummy" i think. All in all, this push was rather weak and seems largely based on the fact that Elie's reads changed. 10/10 would lynch.

kirsche: voted Elie to avoid universal loss, which came after Strege's push. So if Strege had voted someone else, probably would have voted them. It's not super reasoning, but there's no scum or town intent behind it one way or the other. Looking over kirsche's other content, I see no real problems with it? This is currently a tentative gut town read, will require more investigation later if other reads don't turn up scum.

So yeah. Currently my guess for scum team would be Shin/Strege.

For now, I'm going to ##Vote:Strege

Also I was vanilla all day every day.

[scorri]

If one of Strege/Shin does not flip scum, I'd probably want to take a closer look at Objection, since (by PoE) he'd be the remaining scum if my town reads on kirsche/BBM are right.

[NekoRex]

The "Trainwreck Mafia: Terrible Moderator Edition" Votecount

Shinori Scorri (3): SB, Strege, Shin (L-1)

Strege (2): kirsche, scorri (L-2)

Voteless Scum: Objection!, BBM

There are 26 Hours remaining! I might give an extension though since I've been absent myself in the last 2 days.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch a player and avoid universal loss!

Edited August 21, 2013 by NekoRex

[BBM]

Scorri brings up some good points about Shin and I think if any of my townreads are wrong (which they are at this point, unless the team is Scorri/Objection), that's probably the one.

I can see what Scorri is saying about Strege, and Strege's posts have a lot of modifiers in them wrt people's scumminess, but idk just getting a gut townread there.

Scorri, what is your read on Objection?

[Shin]

I probably shouldn't be posting drunk but hey.

In all honesty, Scorri's got some pretty valid points - a fair bit better than the weird two posts Shinori did. I assumed he'd counted properly. I'm not sure scum!Strege would make sense considering the Dallas thing, but I'm not a fan of his inactive votes. Objection has a similar thing going, but his Eli vote was pretty sheepy and I generally don't like his reasoning.

##Unvote

I'm seriously going to have to reconsider my reads later. I'd really like to avoid lynching Strege, but a universal loss kinda stinks.

[scorri]

BBM: I haven't had a chance yet to reread Objection. Was planning on getting that done tonight. Will do in a second.

[BBM]

Looking at some of Objection's posts last phase, I don't really like how weak his push against me was. Not in the reasons he outlined, but in how little he pushed the lynch. He had one post about it, and then in his next post he pretty much gave it up as unlikely to happen. In that post, he also said the Shinori wagon was pointless, yet in his first and only post of today, he said it was highly possible that Shinori was scum. What's changed since then? Elie and Kay's flips. But he didn't really find Elie all that scummy at the end of D3 either, and he said nothing directly about Kay other than that she was inactive and should post more reads.

##Vote: Objection for now

[scorri]

Ugh, ok.

I have not gotten anything done tonight. I will try to get that done tomorrow. That being said, NNR: can we have that extension?

[Strege]

Strege: First off, seems to be voting my slot simply for inactivity? Unless I'm misunderstanding what he said earlier, his scum order was originally kirsche, shin, objection, me. If I misread that, and the order is in fact flipped, well, please explain why I'm scummy beyond inactivity. If it's just inactivity, I would like to point you to Kay. Besides that, votes Elie at a point where the wagons could have been going any way. He's really the tipping point for the wagon I'd say and his reasons for doing so are... lackluster at best. Partially "them over me", partially because Elie's gut reads change (new information causes new reads, otherwise what's the point in playing?), talks about how he could be distancing Darros, but how actually those interactions read more town than scum, and then some stuff that basically comes down to "his darros interaction was town but his push on BBM was scummy" i think. All in all, this push was rather weak and seems largely based on the fact that Elie's reads changed. 10/10 would lynch.

My apologies; my order of scumreads today was from least to most suspicious, starting from the top. I find your playerslot scummy for your first two posts, which I explained early on in the game and because the one content post that Shinori had distanced him from the lynch in his emphasized townread on Elie and was very tentative and self-conscious in his other reads. If being the tipping point in the wagons is a point against me I don't see how it is, assuming you're town since this argument is from your perspective. I didn't find the fact that Elie's reads changed scummy; I found it scummy how they popped in out of nowhere and disappeared as quickly, which has scum intent because it doesn't push someone very far and it doesn't commit to their lynch at any point that it becomes popular, unless it moves right then. Saying something is based in a gutread is also a fine way for scum to not commit to something and fabricate reasons to vote. I found this characteristic of his pushes on both BBM and I.

I can see what Scorri is saying about Strege, and Strege's posts have a lot of modifiers in them wrt people's scumminess, but idk just getting a gut townread there.

I don't understand what you mean by modifiers.

[BBM]

Almost all of your reads have some sort of qualifier there. Like "somewhat scummy". It makes everything you say feel weak.

[scorri]

Strege: My slot wasn't the only other wagon. You were a major wagon at that point too. Which, if you're scum, would be a great reason to jump off someone and jump onto someone else.

[Strege]

Almost all of your reads have some sort of qualifier there. Like "somewhat scummy". It makes everything you say feel weak.

I've been doing that for several games as town and scum, and I'll even pull up examples from this game where I have (sort of indirectly) referred to my system when it isn't 3am. I use it to measure reads. In my mind (and hopefully in the minds of some other players): very > quite > fairly > somewhat > mildly > slightly > very slightly

More or less. I probably make a mistake here and there, but it helps me keep track of things and communicate the intensity of my reads. I think I developed it when I went on crazy tangents that resulted in mild reads, but looked like more to other players. It's just the best way I've found to communicate.

Strege: My slot wasn't the only other wagon. You were a major wagon at that point too. Which, if you're scum, would be a great reason to jump off someone and jump onto someone else.

The wagons started as Elie and I; I didn't want to vote Elie, or myself of course. I've considered you a scumread since the first 24 hour of D1 I think, so me getting on that wagon when it presented itself and when the Kay wagon wasn't gaining steam shouldn't be unexpected. At that point there wasn't enough activity or swing to try to force wagons elsewhere and I thought your playerslot was scummy anyway. My thoughts are decently expressed in post 536.

[The Objection!]

I'm still new at this, this is my third real mafia game and I never got this far so I'm still pretty confused about the things I should've mentioned.

So, I think the mafia has little to no benefit in killing Kay which leads me to the conclusion that Kay's kill has been randomized/chosen by the mod. You can call this a mildly supported gut but I think it's highly probable that the mafia are inactives. With Kay dead, well you know the rest of the story. I suppose the other member of the mafia might have send in the nightkill but so it is also a possibility they didn't. This theory is probably flawed though...

As for reads, here we go...

scorri made some valid points with Shin, reasonable with Strege, and a bit meta but okay with the others. I suppose that's a plus so I'll leave her alone for now. Still leaning slightly on scum though... (thank someone responsible)

Shin, as I stated above was bombed by scorri. Has a new light of scummy, but I'll go for something else right now.

BBM is a bit of defensive towards Strege based on a gutread even though he attacked Elie for finding Kay scummy based on a gutread here. What exactly is your take on gut reads? The Kay kill could be WIFOM if he's mafia.

The fact that Strege found >half players scummy the whole game is off, but I'll leave him in the hands of more expert people.

My order of scumreads right now would be BBM/Shin > Strege > scorri

##Unvote ##Vote:BBM Some of you may say OMGUS but this is just how it is in my opinion.