Musical Chairs Mafia, Town Wins, the Mod Loses

[SB.]

Bleh. I don't want to lynch Strege/Eli, and the support for a BBM lynch isn't exactly high.

##Unvote

##Vote: Shinori

scorri's posts weren't great, and (unlike Kay) he's actually been around (hell, he signed up for the other game) but hasn't done a thing here. Inclined to think he's just scum coasting as hard as he can, at this point.

Lack of strongman lynch makes me question why I'm not dead, but eh. Activity is sucking terribly.

[Strege]

That's pretty much what I meant. He voted fourth out of six. If he really wanted to, he could have done stuff to redirect attention to somebody else, but it wasn't so late that he was voting just to get towncred. Since Darros flipped scum, it's unlikely Objection is unless he was really stupid and decided to help kill one of his teammates.

Elie was the third vote on Darros's wagon (well, SB hopped off just before Objection hopped on so that makes him fourth and Objection fifth or them both fourth or something) and you're voting him. You haven't stated that you're taking that into account, so I don't understand where that fits in.

I think we have to look at the context of the votes anyway, unless we want to say that the first four people who voted Darros are clear or something. Elie's vote on Darros is weird in that post but I don't see how he could go back on it easily later. On the other hand, I find SB's 365 fairly convincing, and the fact that Objeciton follows up the accusation of buddying with a somewhat vaguely explained and light-handed vote ("I'll stick to this vote for now until he gives a satisfying explanation or I find a better target." being pretty tentative) look bad to me.

oh SB post. why not.

##Unvote, ##Vote: Shinori

[BBM]

This is getting annoying now, because this is the fourth time I've explained this exact point. I said Strege was scummy for finding Scorri scummy off two posts because I thought he was saying that Scorri herself was scummy for finding Terra scummy off two posts, which I thought was pretty hypocritical. He clarified, however, that he was just saying that he found Scorri's two posts very scummy, and in my next post, I apologized for that misinterpretation.

Strege brought up something that makes me a lot more sure that he's town- that he was pushing Refa on D2. Nobody was particularly saying that Strege's Refa push was scummy, so it was a really safe votepark in that Refa was unlikely to get lynched, leaving Strege an easy way to not tie himself to any lynch. Killing Refa and removing that ability doesn't seem like something with a lot of scum intent in it.

Also, apparently Darros was the JoaT, and I've been thinking this whole time that he was the Redirector Hitman, which just screws everything up now. I'm guessing they had Darros try to Jan someone on N1? Makes more sense than Hitman N1 I guess.

[BBM]

Shinori wagon is also basically voting an inactive solely for being inactive, which is dumb as fuck when half the game is calling me out for apparently voteparking an inactive for most of D2 and D3.

[SB.]

Kay requested to sub out, Shinori is here and is essentially refusing to post, even though it's been almost 2 game days.. He even signed up for the other game, and like I said, scorri's few posts weren't exactly the pinnacle of towniness.

[Strege]

Also, apparently Darros was the JoaT, and I've been thinking this whole time that he was the Redirector Hitman, which just screws everything up now. I'm guessing they had Darros try to Jan someone on N1? Makes more sense than Hitman N1 I guess.

We already agreed that blocker!Objection would say he targeted a scumbuddy, so I don't understand why people keep taking "Objection blocked the kill" as the default case. It's certainly a possibility, but no more likely than anything else.

And yeah I know the Shinori lynch is dumb but I don't want to lynch you or Elie. I would support a lynch on Objection I suppose.

[Strege]

We already agreed that scum!blocker!Objection would say he targeted a scumbuddy, so I don't understand why people keep taking "Objection blocked the kill" as the default case. It's certainly a possibility, but no more likely than anything else.

Bolded to fix.

[BBM]

Kay didn't request a subout until like end of D2 and the game he signed up for was EiMM, which hardly counts as a proper mafia game. I don't think the slot is necessarily town, but lynching Shinori just for being inactive is lame.

[BBM]

Elie's Darros vote left a huge amount of wiggle room, so I don't give its placement a whole bunch of merit honestly.

Kay didn't request a subout until like end of D2 and the game Shinori signed up for was EiMM, which hardly counts as a proper mafia game. I don't think the slot is necessarily town, but lynching Shinori just for being inactive is lame.

Fixed there

[SB.]

If this is what it takes to make Shinori get his shit together, then I'm keeping my vote here for now.

[Strege]

I'm not voting Shinori because he's inactive. I'm voting him because I think you and Elie are more likely to be town, I don't want to be lynched, and I'm too bad this game to have a stronger scumread right now.

[BBM]

I'm like 85% sure the remaining scumteam is between Shinori/Kay/Elie so if people don't want to lynch any of the latter two, I'll vote the former if I have to; I just think the reasons for the wagon are sort of lame. Unfortunately I also think the people on it are mostly town.

Elie's Darros vote gives a lot of wiggle room because he basically just lists a bunch of possibilities for the lack of a mafia kill N1 and then picks one as the most likely and votes Darros. Not very difficult to go "Hey I actually think this is more likely ##Vote: X". He also has something earlier on Darros not delivering on promised content, but he makes no attempt to analyze this content once it does come on D1 so it could easily be a distancing attempt.

[Strege]

It's more the last paragraph of 360 that seems harder to wiggle out of. What do you think of Elie RVS voting Darros and then poking him over D1? You know I don't have a lot of experience as scum but that just seems so excessive that it has to be coincidence to me.

[BBM]

He's LEANING mafia on Darros. How is that difficult to wiggle out of? RVS voting really doesn't mean anything and in fact I've seen people vote buddies often there, just so that people who look purely at votal patterns get thrown off there. And as I just said, the D1 poke is never followed up on on D1 after Darros posts content.

[Zkirsche]

Sorry had no enhusiasm for mafia today.

How long do we have left in the phase? I can help consolidate at least.

[BBM]

We've still got like 16.5 hours, although I won't be there for phase end or most of tomorrow.

Can we get votals? I think the wagons are Elie, Shinori, and maybe me and Strege?

[Strege]

The "I wish I'd found a summer job compiling votals" Unofficial Votecount

Strege (2): kirsche, Elie

Elie (2): Shin, BBM
BBM (1): Objection
Shinori (2): SB, Strege

Voteless Scum: Shinori, Kay

In Need Of Subs: Kay

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

There are 16 hours and 17 minutes left in the phase!

(the last votals were off and I think this is right; I'm also rereading Elie right now)

[Zkirsche]

Oh that's fine then, I'll leave my vote for tomorrow when I'm not super tired.

[BBM]

Well those sure are some unconsolidated wagons. We probably shouldn't count on Shinori and Kay voting. I'll keep my vote where it is for now. If there aren't more votes for Elie by then or if the Shinori wagon has gotten bigger, I might switch there in the morning to consolidate I guess. I won't join a Strege wagon. If a Kay wagon comes out of nowhere, I'll be more than happy to vote there again, but it doesn't look likely.

[Strege]

I would probably vote anyone to consolidate, maybe even myself, because I feel like we're spiraling a little. I would vote Elie over BBM right now -- the only question is if I'd go Elie over Shinori. I'm rereading and I really can't get a grip on Elie's behaviour -- like, the "Kay is probably scum too." doesn't do anything as either alignment, and the later explanation just reads like it's coasting on poking Darros early which could go either way. Other than that, I find it weird that Elie pops in every day phase, digs his heels into a case, and then mostly forgets about it later on. His gut seemed to tell him I was town D1 but now it's going the other way, and he hasn't mentioned BBM today despite taking a run at him D1 and a small follow-up D2. These pushes don't show much uncertainty or respond to the pushee's responses really. Him feeling out the case on me at the end of D2 is interesting -- he seemed to detect scumbuddy interactions, but his read on Darros wasn't incredibly confident, which overall seems fairly bad in the sense that he knew Darros would flip scum. I see how his Darros interactions could also be early distancing, but it strikes me as slightly townie on the net just because it seems so audacious. He didn't even present a secondary scumread to switch to when he voted Darros -- his poke at BBM came an hour and a half later and wasn't very strong, which makes me feel better about Darros interactions though a little worse about actual pushes.

I think I would prefer an Elie lynch over a Shinori lynch. I would call him "somewhat scummy", which is like halfway up there or whatever whereas Shinori is "mildly scummy".

##Unvote, ##Vote: Elie

[NekoRex]

The "Wrong Flip? I Have No Idea What You Mean" Votecount

Strege (2): kirsche, Elie

Elie (3): Shin, BBM, Strege
BBM (1): Objection
Shinori (1):

Voteless Scum: Shinori, Kay

In Need Of Subs: Kay

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

There are 14.5 hours left in the phase!

I've just had a ton of slip-ups this game, it's kind of annoying :/

I hope this doesn't leave too bad of an impression. I've modded better games before, I promise! (Prims can vouch for me)

Edited August 18, 2013 by NekoRex

[Elieson]

Ok guys I'm here, just leaving work so I'll make a quick blurb and when I get home I'll go back and reread shit.

One thing I wanna point out is that I have a gut scumread on BBM but literally have no case to argue it, so I don't see the point in pursuing it. Like srsly, it's like he is professor Snape and just seems evil, but I can't really explain why.

Regardless, I'd be more apt to bump over towards half-here-nori or online-but-not-even-posting-anything-Kay over most of my other reads. I have a strong town read on SB (whys he still Alive anyway?), kirsche and objection, and null read on Shin/Prims , so where people like BBM say they think the 2 remaining scum are within me/x/y, I think scum is between my scumreads/scumguts of Kay/bbm/Strege/Shinori. I can't really place an order on it, but I'll be honest, I found kirsche's argument compelling at the beginning of the day.

##unvote

##Vote Shinori

[Elieson]

Also I can't remember what recent game it was but I had a gut scumread and didn't do anything with it and in Postgame someone said I should call it out and stick with it because gut reads don't come from nowhere

[Strege]

kirsche didn't present a case against me on D3 before you voted me. What evidence against me do you find most convincing? (I've addressed the counterwagon thing to the best of my ability; what else do you find concerning?) Also, I'm pretty sure SB is confirmed town since no one's seen an unused vig floating around and only a townie could use it (and there were no jan-shenanigans N1).

Also, gutreads are fine to investigate but the problem I have with them is that they don't translate to other people, and presenting arguments that people are unlikely to find convincing isn't good for town and can let scum coast on underexplained cases and say that they are scumreading their buddies without actually pushing a case against them.

I'll be on a while longer tonight and will try to be available for the last 4-5 hours of the phase.

[BBM]

Except Snape wasn't actually evil (GASP SPOILERS), so I'm not entirely sure what your analogy is actually trying to achieve? You say that you found Kirsche's argument against Strege compelling at the beginning of the day, but then also say that Shinori/Kay are worse than that for not posting (Kay has asked for a sub btw).

I also dislike that what seems like half of the suspicions you've explained have just been based on people being inactive.