[X & Y] Battles~Casual and competitive players, reunite!

[AssassinSevera]

1. i used the gen 4 value, but that's irrelevant, because

2. it's a 38.8% chance using the 1/1366 value, not a 50% chance. don't try to correct me on math if you clearly don't know what you're talking about, lol.

3. if you're aware that the probability of getting a shiny pokemon is still really low, then why are you complaining?

the chance of getting at least 1 shiny reaches 50% after 947 eggs.

EDIT: feel free to argue further on this if you want to embarrass yourself even more!

yes, the events are independent. but we're calculating something different here.

What are you talking about? 670/1366 is 49%. How does 947/1366 make it 50% chance? Lmao, you must really know your math.

[dondon151]

What are you talking about? 670/1366 is 49%. How does 947/1366 make it 50% chance? Lmao, you must really know your math.

oh boy, someone here hasn't learned their probability

the expected number of shinies after 670 eggs is 0.49, but that is not to be confused with the chance of getting at least one shiny after 670 eggs. the calculation is simple:

1/1366 chance of getting a shiny, therefore:

1365/1366 chance of not getting a shiny per egg.

the chance (p) of getting 0 shinies after 670 eggs is:

p = (no shiny)^670

p = (1365/1366)^670 = 0.612

therefore the chance or getting at least 1 shiny after 670 eggs is:

1 - p = 1 - 0.612 = 0.388

now to calculate the number of eggs (n) so that (1 - p) exceeds 0.5:

1 - (no shiny)^n = 0.5

1 - (1365/1366)^n = 0.5

(1365/1366)^n = 0.5

do a logarithm here to solve for n:

n = log(0.5) / log(1365/1366) = 946.5

round that up and you get 947 eggs. and of course, you can verify that this is correct by calculating (1 - p) using n = 947, which should yield you 0.50.

one more contention that i have to bring up:

What are you talking about? 670/1366 is 49%. How does 947/1366 make it 50% chance? Lmao, you must really know your math.

using this logic, hatching 1366 eggs gives you a 100% chance to get a shiny, but obviously that is not true. it is possible to hatch eggs forever and never get a shiny.

consider yourself thoroughly embarrassed! but don't worry, this is a learning experience. a simple "thank you, dondon, for explaining probability to me" would suffice.

Edited November 18, 2013 by dondon151

[AssassinSevera]

oh boy, someone here hasn't learned their probability

the expected number of shinies after 670 eggs is 0.49, but that is not to be confused with the chance of getting at least one shiny after 670 eggs. the calculation is simple:

1/1366 chance of getting a shiny, therefore:

1365/1366 chance of not getting a shiny per egg.

the chance (p) of getting 0 shinies after 670 eggs is:

p = (no shiny)^670

p = (1365/1366)^670 = 0.612

therefore the chance or getting at least 1 shiny after 670 eggs is:

1 - p = 1 - 0.612 = 0.388

now to calculate the number of eggs (n) so that (1 - p) exceeds 0.5:

1 - (no shiny)^n = 0.5

1 - (1365/1366)^n = 0.5

(1365/1366)^n = 0.5

do a logarithm here to solve for n:

n = log(0.5) / log(1365/1366) = 946.5

round that up and you get 947 eggs. and of course, you can verify that this is correct by calculating (1 - p) using n = 947, which should yield you 0.50.

one more contention that i have to bring up:

using this logic, hatching 1366 eggs gives you a 100% chance to get a shiny, but obviously that is not true. it is possible to hatch eggs forever and never get a shiny.

consider yourself thoroughly embarrassed! but don't worry, this is a learning experience. a simple "thank you, dondon, for explaining probability to me" would suffice.

Thank you Dondon, for explaining probability to me!

[Alfred Kamon]

This last page made me crack up. XD

But yup, dondon is right, just made the probabilities today in class. =)

Now, I'm quite curious to calculate how lucky was Kinumi to get a shiny after only 89 eggs...

... And how unlucky I am to lose because of a critical hit in 8 battles in a row if we think that my opponents attacked for about 10 times and every attack has a 6% chance to make a critical.

... Definitely gonna calculate that when I get used to probability.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Alfred Kamon

[Sylphid]

Wow you people and your probabilities...

So what color is a shiny Mega Mawile? If Mega Gengar is different from normal one, it would make sense for Mega Mawile have a completely new color scheme too.

My guess is white instead of yellow and red instead of pink, so a standard miko style.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Sylphid

[Shuuda]

Wow you people and your probabilities...

So what color is a shiny Mega Mawile? If Mega Gengar is different from normal one, it would make sense for Mega Mawile have a completely new color scheme too.

My guess is white instead of yellow and red instead of pink, so a standard miko style.

I recall battling someone with a shiny Mawile. While I don't remember the exact colours, I don't think it looked that much different from the regular.

[Kinumi]

Not much different; the only thing that changed is black now being purple.

And its mega looks like this.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Kinumi

[Sylphid]

Not much different; the only thing that changed is black now being purple.

... aww the missed potential...

Why does Mega Gengar get special treatment?

[AssassinSevera]

OMFG!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!1 FIANLLYY SHINY MAWILE!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SCREAMED SO LOUD WHEN I SAW IT!!!!

[Kinumi]

OMFG!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!1 FIANLLYY SHINY MAWILE!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SCREAMED SO LOUD WHEN I SAW IT!!!!

Congratulations!! Wow, that sure took a long time, especially considering the tweaked shiny probability...how many Mawile did you hatch in the end? I also cried tears of joy when I saw my Mawile, if it makes you feel better xD

[Alfred Kamon]

Congrats! ^o^

[AssassinSevera]

Congratulations!! Wow, that sure took a long time, especially considering the tweaked shiny probability...how many Mawile did you hatch in the end? I also cried tears of joy when I saw my Mawile, if it makes you feel better xD

Thanks! I hatched about 850-950 Mawiles, and yes that moment was so amazing :D

Congrats! ^o^

Thank you :)

Hopefully you could get your shiny from Masuda Method, if you try it

Also my mawile is Adamant, Intimidate, IVs in Attack, Defense, and Speed with the egg moves Poison Fang, Ice Fang, and Fire Fang :)

Edited November 18, 2013 by AssassinSevera

[Fruity Insanity]

OMFG!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!1 FIANLLYY SHINY MAWILE!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SCREAMED SO LOUD WHEN I SAW IT!!!!

Nature?

IVs?

Also my mawile is Adamant, Intimidate, IVs in Attack, Defense, and Speed with the egg moves Poison Fang, Ice Fang, and Fire Fang :)

Pretty good.

IVs in HP and SpDef would be better than that Spd, but wuteva.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Fruity Insanity

[Sylphid]

OMFG!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!1 FIANLLYY SHINY MAWILE!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SCREAMED SO LOUD WHEN I SAW IT!!!!

Congratulations!

Thanks! I hatched about 850-950 Mawiles

I'll never breed for shinies @.@

Also my mawile is Adamant, Intimidate, IVs in Attack, Defense, and Speed with the egg moves Poison Fang, Ice Fang, and Fire Fang :)

Does anyone of its siblings happen to have those same nature, ability and IVs? I could give home to one of them?

[Kinumi]

I'll never breed for shinies @.@

I'm pretty sure he was just screwed by the RNG goddess unlucky...I got mine in 82 eggs, and the chances of finding a shiny using the Masuda Method now are around 1/682.

[AssassinSevera]

Congratulations!

I'll never breed for shinies @.@

Does anyone of its siblings happen to have those same nature, ability and IVs? I could give home to one of them?

Yeah, one of its siblings HAS to have at least IVS HP, Attack, Defense, And SP def. I mean, 900 Mawiles, whats the chance of none of them having it? And sure, you can have one after I'm done Super-Training my shiny :)

Edited November 18, 2013 by AssassinSevera

[Sylphid]

I'm pretty sure he was just screwed by the RNG goddess unlucky...I got mine in 82 eggs, and the chances of finding a shiny using the Masuda Method now are around 1/682.

RNG goddess hates me

Even 82 eggs sounds a lot to me, so I'll pass

Yeah, one of its siblings HAS to have at least IVS HP, Attack, Defense, And SP def. I mean, 900 Mawiles, whats the chance of none of them having it? And sure, you can have one after I'm done Super-Training it :)

You never know, you might have been really unlucky

I can super-train that Mawile myself though, you don't have to bother :) (rest after that huge breeding project xD)

I've listed what I have for trade here

[Alfred Kamon]

Soooo.... can I have one of his 900 brothers? XD plis?

[AssassinSevera]

RNG goddess hates me

Even 82 eggs sounds a lot to me, so I'll pass

You never know, you might have been really unlucky

I can super-train that Mawile myself though, you don't have to bother :) (rest after that huge breeding project xD)

I've listed what I have for trade here

Lmao, I meant to say after I'm done super training my Shiny Mawile. Also, I'm interested in the Dratini with Marvel Scale and 3-4 Ivs. Can i get a female one?

Soooo.... can I have one of his 900 brothers? XD plis?

Sure!

[Sylphid]

Lmao, I meant to say after I'm done super training my Shiny Mawile. Also, I'm interested in the Dratini with Marvel Scale and 3-4 Ivs. Can i get a female one?

oh, lol. What was I thinking...

Of course you can.

[Kinumi]

Might seem like a weird request coming from me, but can I have one of the Mawile as well? Pokémon I get from trades are more special to me, so I like training them more~

[AssassinSevera]

Might seem like a weird request coming from me, but can I have one of the Mawile as well? Pokémon I get from trades are more special to me, so I like training them more~

Sure, just have to finish training my Mawile first, find the good IVs ones, then I'll trade to everyone who requested them :)

[AssassinSevera]

Oh my, just found a Mawile with Perfect IVs in every stat! 31/31/31/31/31/31

The rest i had were mostly Attack/Defense/Speed and HP/Attack/Defense etc. Are those Mawiles fine for you guys?

[Kinumi]

Oh my, just found a Mawile with Perfect IVs in every stat! 31/31/31/31/31/31

The rest i had were mostly Attack/Defense/Speed and HP/Attack/Defense etc. Are those Mawiles fine for you guys?

I personally don't care about the IVs, as long as they're from a friend I'll take them~

[Sylphid]

Oh my, just found a Mawile with Perfect IVs in every stat! 31/31/31/31/31/31

The rest i had were mostly Attack/Defense/Speed and HP/Attack/Defense etc. Are those Mawiles fine for you guys?

900 Mawiles should have one of that kind too xD

HP/atk/def sounds good