Doomsday Clock Mafia - Town/ITP Win

[Refa]

Mitsuki, it's not inconceivable that Darros believed (or was told by his scumbuddies) that it was a reaction test. Also only cool people like me claim scum. :3

[Mitsuki]

The whole point is that I don't think he faked believing in the vigshot.

Darros should probably do something...

[Refa]

Darros is busy IRL IIRC, so that shouldn't affect any reads on him one way or the other.

Also how much time is left in this phase?

[Mitsuki]

I'm actually replying to Elie!

Mitsuki's holding back reads in #100, and that's not good. There's no town reason to bide time to sheep cases.

I wasn't holding back thoughts (because it was thoughts more than reads) because it's fun, but just because posting about them wouldn't accomplish anything. I already explained this before.

Mits' #154 reads as scummy to me too. The vagueness of "someone else" reads scummy. I don't care if it's semantics-y, it's reading as scummy

I said someone else because Refa was going to reread and maybe I'd agree with something he'd bring up, so I wanted to tell him that I could support his read. I didn't want to lynch the any of the lynch candidates (Kirsche, Darros, FFM) at that point, either. Again, I already explained this.

Wincon spec isn't helping hunt scum, and neither is numbers spec, and neitherneither is killspec.

I thought someone could find useful my winconspec (I've done rulespec before and yeah it was useful) so I posted it.

That marth case looks extremely forced; cherrypicking what he is saying and she's invalidating her own case (from the first underlined bit to the second underlined bit)

I didn't have that much conviction on Marth in the first place, I actually wanted to vote for Kirsche but I prefered to wait and see if he'd do stuff D2. I don't see how I contradict myself anyways, I think telling people that their townreads are bad without explaining why is a good scumtell and not something town would do.

This is a metacase that doesn't really have any foundation (since it's a metaread). It put a sense of doubt out there that just reads like unnecessary justification, and invalidates her own defense of town!Refa, despite how it actually reads.

It boils down to "Well he could've been scum" "He's probably town" "Yea I'm pretty sure he's probably town", and it just seems like too much effort and justification for such a simple reaction test.

Why is meta bad? I always have meta in mind, and I think it's useful because every person will do different things, and some things done by a certain person are scummy but done by another they aren't. (For example: Manix tunelling isn't scummy, someone else tunelling might be).

I don't see how I invalidate my townread on Refa by giving more reasons on why he's town.

Also, I wrote like 3 lines on why Refa was town, I don't thik that's too much. Anyways, why would giving a townread like that be scummy?

[MRDRHAWK]

WOW OKAY I FUCKING FORGOT I EXISTED HERE

lemme read back for some shit

from what I've actually read I actually kinda don't like Mitsuki but I need to go through more shit first

[Grace]

so apparently sleep is for squares (read: not me)

saying that, i don't think i will have the brainpower to reread but i can and probably will throw out lots of questions

[Grace]

or i can decide that i need to get at least some sleep

people still need to getin: namely scorri/shinori et al

[Elieson]

What's really frustrating me is that neither of you (Marth, Manix) are looking at the REASONS behind my townreads and saying why they're bad. Like seriously, you haven't disputed my reasoning behind townreading a single person in the thread except Darros. You're just taking it as automatically suspicious that I'm not scumreading anyone who's active without saying why my reasons for doing so are bad because hey

But it is bad, because you're pretty much relying on PoE to guide your reads through the game, and have been since Day 1, when there's nothing concrete to lean on in terms of evidence. You're scumreads are based on the fact that you have a bunch of townreads, which weakens the quality of your townreads.

...because hey; inactive people can't be scum right?

There's more to looking town than making a bunch of half-assed (or better) effortposts. You've been literally using PoE for justification since D1, in a game that both has rules against setup breaking and crappy activity from an amount of players that could easily exceed the quantity of nontown. It's a stretch to call Darros, scorri, Eury, Shinori, Poly and me scum, by justice of activity, and I'm not even trying that hard to read into your case.

His Mitsuki case is kind of bad though, like yeah her post wasn't protown but...why is it scummy? Also I tend to find that town is more likely to spec about ITP stuff on thread than scum because scum has this neat thing called scumchat to do that instead.

It's scummy because of the amount of effort put into it, first, and the organization of the post, second.

@Manix: I can see town not putting a lot of effort anyways if they were not motivated about the game in the first place, like I think Darros was. From his reaction I'm sure he thought he was dying: if he was scum in that situation he'd just claim scum and let out some rage. Why bother to give reads?

If Darrps is scum and he believes that he's being shot, he could just as easily veg out as he could try to produce reads, on the chance that the shot isn't real. Claiming scum is a shot in the foot for scum.

If Darrps is town and he believes that he's being shot, he could just as easily veg out as he could try to produce reads, on the chance that the shot isn't real. Claiming scum is downright silly.

Dayshots have been faked often enough that people can't really tell if they're being faked anymore (I have a hard time with it anyway), so his reaction, if he were town, would probably have been more effort-filled as a last ditch readspost. He didn't do a whole lot aside from post a little readsblurb and claim Vanilla. I'm more confident that Darrps will flip on the premise of effort in his last posts, primarily his votepost with kirsche. It's just a bunch of "he's acting weird" "She's acting strange", and nothing's being cited.

I wasn't holding back thoughts (because it was thoughts more than reads) because it's fun, but just because posting about them wouldn't accomplish anything. I already explained this before.

When is it not beneficial to out reads?

I thought someone could find useful my winconspec (I've done rulespec before and yeah it was useful) so I posted it.

I can't really take this any further, because it's more or less a null-action to analyze wincon/killspec unless the setup is literally being broken by it

I didn't have that much conviction on Marth in the first place, I actually wanted to vote for Kirsche but I prefered to wait and see if he'd do stuff D2. I don't see how I contradict myself anyways, I think telling people that their townreads are bad without explaining why is a good scumtell and not something town would do.

The first part of your Marth!case says that it looks like scum trying to just spread suspicion, and the second part of your Marth!case says that just because scum can do something, that it isn't necessarily scummy. Your own words invalidate your case

Why is meta bad? I always have meta in mind, and I think it's useful because every person will do different things, and some things done by a certain person are scummy but done by another they aren't. (For example: Manix tunelling isn't scummy, someone else tunelling might be).

I don't see how I invalidate my townread on Refa by giving more reasons on why he's town.

Also, I wrote like 3 lines on why Refa was town, I don't thik that's too much. Anyways, why would giving a townread like that be scummy?

A case based on a foundation of meta isn't really a case though, because it presents someone as giving forth effort without actually beign effort. You can stuff a meta case full of "He wouldn't"s and "He probably would"s, but there's nothing concrete to build a logical case on, and depending on the flip of the person your meta case is on, it's just as easy to say "I knew something wasn't right with X" versus "Darn, I guess my gut was wrong on X".

And I think your "Refa is town" is just too much, like I said. I don't think your townread is scummy, but the way you presented it reads as scummy to me. Just like people can have lame cases for X being town because they're presented with an amount of effort that doesn't seem to fit (usually, not enough), I'm picking it up as too much effort.

[BBM]

But it is bad, because you're pretty much relying on PoE to guide your reads through the game, and have been since Day 1, when there's nothing concrete to lean on in terms of evidence. You're scumreads are based on the fact that you have a bunch of townreads, which weakens the quality of your townreads.

This isn't true at all and is pretty circular. My scumreads being based on my townreads doesn't mean my townreads are worse in quality. How does that even make sense?

There's more to looking town than making a bunch of half-assed (or better) effortposts. You've been literally using PoE for justification since D1, in a game that both has rules against setup breaking and crappy activity from an amount of players that could easily exceed the quantity of nontown. It's a stretch to call Darros, scorri, Eury, Shinori, Poly and me scum, by justice of activity, and I'm not even trying that hard to read into your case.

Absolutely 0 of my reads stem from rolespec, the setup, or activity. You're doing the same thing that Manix and Marth are doing and dismissing my townreads without even. Seriously, you even acknowledged that you're not reading my posts carefully- why are you even talking to me? I've never at any point said that Darros and scorri are scum. I've had them at neutral or townie the entire game. Every single one of my non-PoE reads is based on in-thread play and posts. And I've never said that the people I'm scumreading are scum because they're inactive- I've said that they're the most likely to be scum because I think that everybody who's been active is town.

A case based on a foundation of meta isn't really a case though, because it presents someone as giving forth effort without actually beign effort. You can stuff a meta case full of "He wouldn't"s and "He probably would"s, but there's nothing concrete to build a logical case on, and depending on the flip of the person your meta case is on, it's just as easy to say "I knew something wasn't right with X" versus "Darn, I guess my gut was wrong on X".

You are wrong. Meta is completely concrete; just as concrete as scumtells like "wow that guy's sheeping" because if your argument is that scum can actively make an effort to subvert their meta and play differently from what they did last game, they can also actively make an effort to not sheep. Yeah you're not going to be right 100% of the time but that's the case with any method of scumhunting. The problem is that people don't know how to use meta correctly and half the time the meta they use from past games is stuff that's not alignment indicative or they fail to take into account extenuating circumstances that caused that game to be different.

[Mitsuki]

When is it not beneficial to out reads?

It's not reads it's thoughts... those were thoughts that wouldn't lead to good reads, like "I can see scum doing x but town can do it as well" or "I think x because of gut but it's weak suspicion and I don't think it's relevant". You can go and check my posts to see what those thoughts were since I ended up saying those.

The first part of your Marth!case says that it looks like scum trying to just spread suspicion, and the second part of your Marth!case says that just because scum can do something, that it isn't necessarily scummy. Your own words invalidate your case

... I still don't get why you think I'm invalidating my own case, seriously. Apparently you think that I'm saying that scum can do anything so you can't case scum, and I'm saying that you need more evidence than something being possible for scum to do to make a case. I think that the scumtells Marth used are like "something is possible for scum so they're scum", while mine aren't.

A case based on a foundation of meta isn't really a case though, because it presents someone as giving forth effort without actually beign effort. You can stuff a meta case full of "He wouldn't"s and "He probably would"s, but there's nothing concrete to build a logical case on, and depending on the flip of the person your meta case is on, it's just as easy to say "I knew something wasn't right with X" versus "Darn, I guess my gut was wrong on X".

But I wasn't basing any case on meta. I was just using meta among other things to say that Refa was town.

And I think your "Refa is town" is just too much, like I said. I don't think your townread is scummy, but the way you presented it reads as scummy to me. Just like people can have lame cases for X being town because they're presented with an amount of effort that doesn't seem to fit (usually, not enough), I'm picking it up as too much effort.

If I have stuff to say I'm going to say it all, not just a bit of it. I said all I had to say, and saying less would have been leaving important things out.

[Zkirsche]

Guys I've found a suitable counterwagon, time to get off obvtown!kirsche and onto actual scum.

You're scumreads are based on the fact that you have a bunch of townreads, which weakens the quality of your townreads.

How does having scumreads based on townreads weaken the quality of townreads? The quality of a read is surely judged solely on the quality of the reasoning, and I don't see how the reasoning behind a townread weakens if it implicated others as scum?

It's a stretch to call Darros, scorri, Eury, Shinori, Poly and me scum, by justice of activity, and I'm not even trying that hard to read into your case.

Except that's not what he's doing. He's townreading Darros and scorri and even said he had a weak guttown read on Poly, and he's not calling you scum because you're inactive he's calling you scum because he thinks everyone else is town.

Misrepping BBM + Panicking over BBM townreading people is worth a vote over voting inactive for the sake of being inactive.

##Unvote

##vote: Elieson

People (mostly Marth/Manix/Elie) need to stop discrediting townreads for the sake of discrediting townreads and actually analyse the reasoning behind them. Still think BBM is town, and townreading most of the game helps that as scum avoid trying to townread too many people just in case they need to push a ml, with the way things are if any of Poly and co are cleared then BBM has to 180 on a read and we can maybe find something in that.

I reread Mitsuki's and Scorri's cases on me and neither of them are really that opportunistic, especially Mitsuki's, which sucks because I was partially baiting such opportunistic voting.

[Elieson]

This isn't true at all and is pretty circular. My scumreads being based on my townreads doesn't mean my townreads are worse in quality. How does that even make sense?

It does, because the people who you're more comfortably reading as scum haven't actually done anything scummy, so you're judging alignments based on things that haven't actually happened. If you PoE'd 8 players as town because 3 or 4 or 5 players read as super scummy, that's one thing, but it doesn't necessarily work the other way around.

Absolutely 0 of my reads stem from rolespec, the setup, or activity. You're doing the same thing that Manix and Marth are doing and dismissing my townreads without even. Seriously, you even acknowledged that you're not reading my posts carefully- why are you even talking to me? I've never at any point said that Darros and scorri are scum. I've had them at neutral or townie the entire game. Every single one of my non-PoE reads is based on in-thread play and posts. And I've never said that the people I'm scumreading are scum because they're inactive- I've said that they're the most likely to be scum because I think that everybody who's been active is town.

This was partially aimed at you, but I know you didn't say that scorri and Darros were scum. However, you did say this and this. I was more bursting out to try to make a point, rather than call you out for calling every single inactive player out as scum

hurtful

You are wrong. Meta is completely concrete; just as concrete as scumtells like "wow that guy's sheeping" because if your argument is that scum can actively make an effort to subvert their meta and play differently from what they did last game, they can also actively make an effort to not sheep. Yeah you're not going to be right 100% of the time but that's the case with any method of scumhunting. The problem is that people don't know how to use meta correctly and half the time the meta they use from past games is stuff that's not alignment indicative or they fail to take into account extenuating circumstances that caused that game to be different.

So out of all the games that say, Psych's been Psych, or that I've been lynched for what I'm certain you remember as silly reasons (since you made it the Elie!RolePM after all), is it fair to assume that people who use meta to build a case are using it to properly? It's too swingy of a principle, and it's not concrete enough to work as a foundation. It's just not reliable enough to be a solid case, when more analysis can go into a case based on the context of people's posts, rather than what they'd probably be posting like.

ffs I'm not even calling you scummy, I'm just arguing a point

[Elieson]

How does having scumreads based on townreads weaken the quality of townreads? The quality of a read is surely judged solely on the quality of the reasoning, and I don't see how the reasoning behind a townread weakens if it implicated others as scum?

If you have 10 different cereal boxes in front of you, and you are being survey'd to tell which one has the most sugar in it, eating from only 7 and not tasting too much sugar will not lead one to properly assume that the remaining 3 are probably sugary. That's the way I'm looking at BBM's logic here

Except that's not what he's doing. He's townreading Darros and scorri and even said he had a weak guttown read on Poly, and he's not calling you scum because you're inactive he's calling you scum because he thinks everyone else is town.

I just clarified on that in my other post towards BBM, and i'm too lazy to retype it

Misrepping BBM + Panicking over BBM townreading people is worth a vote over voting inactive for the sake of being inactive

##Unvote

##vote: Elieson

People (mostly Marth/Manix/Elie) need to stop discrediting townreads for the sake of discrediting townreads and actually analyse the reasoning behind them. Still think BBM is town, and townreading most of the game helps that as scum avoid trying to townread too many people just in case they need to push a ml, with the way things are if any of Poly and co are cleared then BBM has to 180 on a read and we can maybe find something in that.

If other people are questioning BBM's methods of finding likely scum by finding likely town first, then are we all scum for it?

[Elieson]

It's not reads it's thoughts... those were thoughts that wouldn't lead to good reads, like "I can see scum doing x but town can do it as well" or "I think x because of gut but it's weak suspicion and I don't think it's relevant". You can go and check my posts to see what those thoughts were since I ended up saying those.

The more you put out for people to read, the more other people can use as reference to building their own cases. If you've got something and you aren't 100% comfortable with using it as a scumread or townread, somebody else may be, and they can use your ideas as a tool in their own scumhunting. Holding onto thoughts, without serious role-related reasoning, limits the amount of information that town can utilize in scumhunting.

... I still don't get why you think I'm invalidating my own case, seriously. Apparently you think that I'm saying that scum can do anything so you can't case scum, and I'm saying that you need more evidence than something being possible for scum to do to make a case. I think that the scumtells Marth used are like "something is possible for scum so they're scum", while mine aren't.

You included a reason in your own case against marth that justifies why he might not be scum for doing what he's done. It reads like "Marth did X, which scum can do, but it might not be a scummy thing. I'm still scumreading him though." Do you see how that doesn't read right? If I'm misunderstanding you, it's by a longshot

But I wasn't basing any case on meta. I was just using meta among other things to say that Refa was town.

You mentioned more meta than anything else in your Town!Refa case post that I highlighted in my first big notespost. You even go back to it after you throw in your bit about his actual townie play.

If I have stuff to say I'm going to say it all, not just a bit of it. I said all I had to say, and saying less would have been leaving important things out.

Unless you have a reason to withhold comments about the game, you speak them god i feel like eclipse

[BBM]

Your cereal example is flawed because there you have no guarantee that 3 cereal boxes are sugary. Here you do know that there's at least one member of the mafia. And if you knew that there were 3 sugary cereal boxes then seeing that 7/10 probably weren't would indeed tell you that the remaining ones probably are. Mafia isn't about finding the scummiest person (sugariest cereal box), it's about finding all the scum (all the sugary cereal boxes).

You quoted a post where I talked about being frustrated and then explicitly admitted to doing the thing that was frustrating me. Nevertheless I apologize.

The meta thing was also just me arguing a point about gameplay theory that frustrates me because every single game where I have meta reads I get people saying that meta reads aren't as concrete as other reads. As for the two examples you gave- "Psych being Psych" means that people aren't using something that's alignment-indicative (what I said in my post). And you're not Paperblade- you don't get lynched for meta reasons very often. If you keep getting lynched for dumb reasons that AREN'T meta then you of all people should see that meta is just as reliable as anything else.

[Grace]

i cannot focus for nuts, sleep OP

saying that i'm still going to try. give me some time to compile things

[Grace]

Mafia isn't about finding the scummiest person (sugariest cereal box), it's about finding all the scum (all the sugary cereal boxes).

even though when you find the sugariest you can imply from similarities to find the others? which is akin to lynching a scum and then using associative reads. i don't think you thought this through

bbm: if you can explain every townread you have, that would be swell. because i don't think you have and iirc you admitted to not having reread the threadat some point (and you even said that you did at some point and then immediately turned around and claimed differently)

[Grace]

*have recently

words.

[Grace]

like the reason why i'm noting this is is bc it reeks of laziness bc i don't think bbm has even remotely reconsidered any of his reads since D1. i mean sure, neither have i much, but at least i'm not just harping on about inactives

[Grace]

also @kirsche/whoever: explain to me how i'm invalidating bbm's townreads? idr saying anything of the sort.

[scorri]

Ugh, ok, so I was at work all day today and then I needed to clean my apartment and pack and then I'll be on a plane most of tomorrow. I'm going to try to get a post up now, but this is just heads up that ahhh life has happened.

[BBM]

@Manix- Yeah so finding one sugary box and then seeing which boxes are similar to it is one way of finding the sugariest boxes. But if you can accurately determine all the boxes that aren't sugary, that also lets you find which ones are sugary.

This analogy is kind of falling apart now... I was going to write this entire post in cereal analogies but it was too difficult. I'm sorry Paper

Manix: Tone is town because he's generally a lot more aggressive and direct than he is when he's scum. Also the content is consistent whereas it comes in flurries as scum with a lot of active lurking thrown in otherwise (see: Spellcard, SFMM3). Also my favourite Manix meta; scumreading me off tone less than 12 hours into the game. It's hilarious because this would be so easy for him to replicate as scum but he never does. I suppose he'll do it one of these days but he's not scum this time. He also coasts off roleclaims a lot (also see Spellcard and SFMM3)- he hasn't done so since the dayvig (which is town in and of itself but I was townreading him before that).

Refa: I think that his activity and content at the beginning of D1 was really motivated, which is supertownie in this context because of how often he's been scum lately. His ED2 admitting that he's not really sure why people are townreading him also is townie I think because scum, especially in the context of having been scum so many times in a row would not want to draw attention to that. I also think that he's fine with just sheeping a read rather than first making up reasoning for it, which is normally town for people who don't have many issues generating content. Those people just make up reasoning when they're jumping onto a wagon because it looks "better". It gives me an overall feeling of Big NOCers, where he was willing to just follow my D2 Elie scumread.

Mitsuki: I'm a little unsure of this in comparison to the first two because I've never seen Mitsuki roll scum, so there's always going to a little uncertainty in the back of my mind because I don't know how well she can fake things as scum. That being said, I think that her reaction to Refa's fake report didn't feel faked at all. I especially think that the part where she talked about her RVS gut townread on Refa is town because it feels like genuine town pride upon correctly guessing someone's alignment right away, rather than scum over-explaining as Elie said. Also, scum would know that the report was fake, so it just doesn't make sense to me to rave on about how Refa is town (as Elie is claiming) because it's just jarring after that to change to a scumread.

I had everyone in here but then I lost my post and writing up Manix/Refa/Mitsuki again tired me. I'll get to Marth/kirsche/scorri later.

[Bluedoom]

Ok reading the thread atm but

shouldn't darros be dead by now?

[Grace]

48 hours marf, not 24

[NekoRex]

Too busy to do a votecount right now, sorry. Would be nice if someone could do that for me.