Guitar Mafia - Game Over

[Rapier]

SB's case is the most fragile one since his towness depends on Larsa's jailing on him to be true. The rest of the players have shown town content along the game, whereas he didn't shown any particularly town content (nor scum content, mind you, at least from what I remember... but since I can't deduce who is scum I'll deduce who's town instead and go for the remaining player). Also on killspec it makes sense for him to corner me like a rat[ier] by leaving the towniest players alive and use me as a scapegoat, as far as I can see.

Supposing SB wasn't targetted by Larsa, would he still be town?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

D1

First, I'm going to start by analyzing how Rapier v BBM/SB interacted with the flipped scum. I do not see much of worth until page 4 when Rapier engages Randa in clarifying his reads while placing him to the scum side of the spectrum...eh this does not tell me much but I'm jotting it down for perspective. Rapier responds justifying his methods in 109.

Want to make note that BBM dropped a Randa vote and peaced while Rapier is pretty damn active early in the game.

dewound continues pointing out shit that Rapier did in 130. It strikes me as pretty nitpicky.

dewound brings up Rapier as pushing null things as scummy.

BBM enters the thread in 137 with an early dewound vote and good reasoning. Throws out a weirdass townread on Randa and implies a townread on Rapier.

Rapier 150 has him saying, "I'm not sure if I should take your reluctance to vote me as bad or not" and questions dewounds' lack of commitment.

I want to note that if Rapier is scum, he is pushing both of his scummates at this point in time which is pretty bawss play.

dewound 154 "...Rapier has been backing it up so at this point I almost feel reluctant in backing down from Rapier as he's been proving my initial assumptions of him wrong." <--- So dewound lays down the groundwork for backpedaling on his Rapier scumread. Honestly, this is a weird move to make towards a scumbuddy.

Rapier 164 has him going in more on dewound with solid points. Man, this is some pretty swag bussing if that's the case.

dewound 166 "I will admit that I have been feeling less confident on you, and would say if I were to jump off you I would look more towards Refa/Gorf, as I'm almost ready to submit that I was wrong about you initially as I feel I'm becoming a broken record." <-- This last part is important as dewound starts backing down from Rapier. I rarely see scumbuddies interact with each other to the point of saying, "You know, I'm starting to think this guy is Town" because that defeats the purpose of bussing/distancing.

I've seen dewound get in fights with his scumbuddies offsite and 9/10 times if Town isn't listening to his push (even if he's right) he'll be like "SIGH you guys are so whack for not agreeing with me I'll get this guy later!!" or some shit like that. Rapier even points out the oddity if this sudden agreement in 173.

BBM returns in 184 and considers switching from dewound to Larsa.

So the difference between Rapier and BBM is that the former engaged flipped scum dewound a lot while the latter saw scum dropped a vote then bounced...

Randa's 194 is possibly his first post with content of the game.

dewound's last mention of Rapier is 261 with a "Rapier is fine" comment I usually see scum toss easy townreads on innocents as opposed to scumbuddies unprovoked. He also unvotes. Man, this completes his 180 method of Rapier as it progressed from scum -> town.

So if I went off D1 I would probably lynch SB over Rapier. It looks like dewound bit off more than he could chew with Rapier then just said "oh shit this guy is Town" when he realized his push was going nowhere...that's going off tone.

D2

OK, Randa gets dunked pretty fast. SB's reaction to his claim is logical enough, and Rapier is missing from the thread at this point.

Oh man, Rapier's 370 is valuable as hell. Check the following quote.

There's something interesting which I've noticed from dewound's actions on D1: He switched the Town's attention from Mancer toward me. His wagon already had 4/5 votes before dewound jumped in and started defending Mancer by attacking those who were in his wagon, especially me, and claiming the former was playing nicely from his reads. Later on we saw his case on me was just a ruse and his scumhunting was superficial, as he retracted his scumread on me as soon as it became convenient. I believe that was because his intent all along was to get votes out of his scumbuddy's wagon instead of scumhunting, even though it still cost scum one of their peers. I can see dewound and Mancer as scumbuddies.

Man...this really reads like a towntell to me as it's the analysis I would expect from someone who was trying to figure out a flipped scum's intention and it's consistent with his Mancer pressure from D1. He also says:

Randa's content is subpar but aside from quality I don't see anything inherently scummy on him. I believe this is the third game where I can't tell if he's acting scummy or town. I have huge issues on reading him and Bellysaurus and Shin properly. :/

For now I find it more wise to suspend my judgment. Still, maybe it'd be good to lynch Randa if only to get associative reads from him and Gorf, since the latter has been defending him for a long time because of "gut feeling" (this can be easily used by scum to make one of their buddies look more townie). I'm not opposed to a Randa lynch but I'd rather lynch Mancer this phase.

I am having difficulty rationalizing why Rapier -- as scum -- fencesits on his buddy so hard here. With the sink shipping on Randa I would think it's high time to bus his ass which is more consistent with SB's approach as opposed to Rapier's.

Larsa calls SB probtown in #458. Pointing this out as I try to guess who he jailed.

Want to point out that SB starts lurking hardbody at this point.

Rapier talks more about dewound's flip on #657 and it just reads townie as hell to me...

Larsa lists Zyth, Rapier, and Gorf as the likely scums in 682 and follow it in 686.

Larsa says he forgot about SB in 704 and said he has a nasty scum read on him in 708.

The only thing that's stopping me from voting SB is the presumed jail. This is primarily due to the disconnects I see between dewound and SB.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

EBWOP:

Between dewound and Rapier.*

[Randa]

ded

i had a content post?

ded

[Prims]

Prod dodge. Sigh.

omega, how much weight are you putting into the jail? if rapier and sb are town, am i plausible scum?

bleh, sb feels like he's apathetic even though it's lylo. i can't read any rapier post without finding it exceedingly town. doesnt help that my understanding of rapier as a player is that hed have probably seen both his buddies die on him then go "wait, shit" and get bored and forfeit

[Prims]

Meh. After rereading Omega's interactions with scum again I still don't think they make sense for buddies, even as a busser the way he went about it wouldn't seem to be a way to maximize towncred or anything like that.

Why? This is a premature conclusion, or at least seems like one since I can't see your thought process. If Omega is scum he has to be the godfather and it's naive to assume scum only ever bus 100% optimally. ??? on this because if you're scum Rapier's the easier player to argue a lynch against right now.

[Prims]

Every time I see a no kill night I think of CY'OR.

##Vote: Refa

Look up for reasoning. Need to look into Mancer further because that hammer out of nowhere sucked and he was completely unmemorable yesterday, as well as the people who all came from (whatever site it was) except Gorf.

Prims pls tell me you have another daycop.

SB, why make this vote when you had just scanned Refa? Why would you target somebody you were planning on lynching anyway?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I'm not putting much weight into the jail. Larsa was all over the place with his suspicions D2...the one thing that gives me pause is how SB would know to claim jailed like that. But Rapier's behavior with the flipped scum do not fit IMO; this is why I have been stressing that you reread those pages to see if I'm offbase here.

Meh, I doubt you're scum. If you are, you wasted a lot of excess energy flipping your reads the way you are. It more reminds me of Gorf in Flavorless when he was a confused innocent. I'm fine losing to you and have written you off as a nonplay.

[Prims]

yea at this point I'm thinking dewound backed off Rapier because the argument was drawing too much attention toward him, not because he didn't want to be on his buddy. Waiting on SB at this point. where are u

[charlie_]

SB's case is the most fragile one since his towness depends on Larsa's jailing on him to be true. The rest of the players have shown town content along the game, whereas he didn't shown any particularly town content (nor scum content, mind you, at least from what I remember... but since I can't deduce who is scum I'll deduce who's town instead and go for the remaining player). Also on killspec it makes sense for him to corner me like a rat[ier] by leaving the towniest players alive and use me as a scapegoat, as far as I can see.

Why do I care about specifically mislynching you? Killing Prims or Omega would've put me in an arguably better position rather than killing Mancer who was still more lynchable than me imo.

But I was there during the timespawn before Refa shot him and after Randa claimed. If we were scumbuddies and we rehearsed this so I could get towncred, then why didn't I counterclaim? This case scenario doesn't make sense.

Because you weren't caught up at that point and it'd just look weird based on your post? Feeling less strongly about this now after you did make ONE post when you were around, even if you hadn't caught up with things. idk though I'm feeling less confident in this theory now that I noticed you did make a post around that time so ???. No matter how much I try and get my head around Randa's gambit thing nothing seems to make sense.

bleh, sb feels like he's apathetic even though it's lylo.

I am apathetic atm just because I expected the game to end with Gorf's lynch yesterday, and then the person I probably would've gone into today voting ended up dead. Honestly even though I'm pressing Rapier I have like, no confidence in the push because I thought Rapier was hard town yesterday and my theories for other people being scum feel more like conspiracy theories than anything else so >.>

Why? This is a premature conclusion, or at least seems like one since I can't see your thought process. If Omega is scum he has to be the godfather and it's naive to assume scum only ever bus 100% optimally. ??? on this because if you're scum Rapier's the easier player to argue a lynch against right now.

I think I've given these reasons before, but okay. The way Omega switched from scum being wagoned to the other flipped scum makes his play seem genuine - if anyone looked back at how the votals developed like I did, they would've noticed him switching off of the wagon as it gained momentum, but since Randa was also scum I don't see what scum gains from doing that. Also, when Day 2 started Randa's lynch really wasn't set in stone and he could've probably survived another day phase just based on how he was the closest counterwagon to dewound and how dewound called for him to be vigged imo. He didn't look /town/ from it but where's scum!Omega's motivation for bussing his second scumbuddy right out of the gate after their kill fails and they know basically nothing about town's power? With a fulltime RB and the rolecop I would probably have expected a beefier town than this one as scum so it seems almost suicidal to me.

Honestly I'd consider scum!you going for big plays before I consider Omega, I just don't think that the interactions work that way. The only unfortunate thing is that the other side of the interactions seem pretty impossible to get reads off of considering that dewound and Randa both seemed to treat Gorf in a similar way, which I suppose points to him being town again more than anything.

SB, why make this vote when you had just scanned Refa? Why would you target somebody you were planning on lynching anyway?

It reveals his alignment and my sanity, so I don't go into D3 wondering if I'd scanned 2 scum or 2 townies. I didn't really think about how I should play the role and just picked my scan targets like a normal cop tbh, which might've been a bad idea in hindsight but I dunno.

Rereading now.

[charlie_]

Prims, why did you scan dewound over Mancer Day 1 when you were voting for Mancer at the time?

[Prims]

I decided to scan between Mancer and dewound and picked the one I'd rather have had clear in LYLO should it come down to it.

Also imo optimal cop play isn't to scan your prime suspects who you're gonna be lynching anyway. I was actually more suspicious of Mancer at that point.

If you think I'm scummy then we should no lynch, since everybody is a viable target at that point.

[Prims]

lol that post is kind of mean, sorry Mancer, you're not the one making the LYLO decision so I'm basically envious of you.

[charlie_]

I skipped over till Randa died since I haven't really looked into stuff besides the interactions until this phase? Idk.

I actually find the way Prims went about his Poly read really baffling? He started out dismissing him as obvtown and then said that he should claim anyway just because he was "curious" when that's a kind of dumb reason, and then went along with the Poly lynch because of him offering to claim being "odd" rather than actually saying why he's scummy. When he actually did claim I think he said it wouldn't exist with a scum roleblocker, but then when it was confirmed he just decided to go along with the lynch anyway??? I'm also worried about the D3 quickhammer out of nowhere because I feel like scum!Prims would feel like he had enough towncred to get away with it? Idk. And the way he flipped around his read on me from yesterday to today is kind of questionnable too.

Still torn on Rapier because his play since Day 2 can be summed up as "sit on player X who is the top lynch candidate, get them lynched, then pick a target and repeat", and today isn't exactly different? I feel like if he was town in *YLO (has he ever been there before though?) he would've spent more time considering the other options than "maybe Prims was scum on the kill N1!"

tl;dr i still have no idea who is scum fuck mafia. I think that things point towards Prims being town based on interactions and stuff but at the same time his D2/D3 were really weird? I think his posts today/D4 were better though so I don't even know. I guess I'm leaning towards Rapier but I have like, no confidence. At least in SMT's LYLO the last scum was obvious to me >.>

[charlie_]

And the way he flipped around his read on me from yesterday to today is kind of questionnable too.

although i guess this part is fair since mylo sucks

[Prims]

bleh I should probably stop stalling this.

tbh past few posts have all been an attempt to see how SB would respond to the game seeming turned against him, I'm confident he's town on both set-up and play at this point. Full-time roleblocker to counter a 2-shot jailkeeper and a bunch of functional vanillas is just lol, so is having a miller only to troll the daycop. We also know that SB didn't just wait until EvilG was janned to make the safe claim because he alluded to wanting Refa's flip back on D2.

Omega being gf with a strong bussing game is possible, and I was strongly considering it at one point, but there are all these small things that don't add up - him pushing Randa then and not later, putting all this effort into trying to lynch SB (basically clear) instead of just going "nope it's rapier" when I'm acting paranoid about him, the fact that Mancer died over the person most open to looking into alternatives... Also think he would have been more demanding in not letting Randa do the bullshit gambit.

So there's this.

##Vote: Rapier

[Prims]

My D2-D3 posts were probably odd because Zyth was shitposting and I could not focus. Still don't regret that lynch.

[Prims]

should put rapier at L-1 so I can get super mad at myself if yolo is scum and quickhammers lol

[charlie_]

that's probably fair, my day where i didn't post was because of a combination of feeling sick and 11 pages of basically no content rip

What do you mean about the stuff about looking into alternatives?

[Prims]

I was the only one who wanted to take another look at Omega. Mancer thought Omega was clear. There's 0 reason for Omega to shoot Mancer over me when Mancer in LYLO is like a free win for him (aside from, like, intentionally playing sub-optimally for fun factor but that's a barrel of WIFOM I don't want to get into).

[Prims]

tbh past few posts have all been an attempt to see how SB would respond to the game seeming turned against him, I'm confident he's town on both set-up and play at this point. Full-time roleblocker to counter a 2-shot jailkeeper and a bunch of functional vanillas is just lol, so is having a miller only to troll the daycop. We also know that SB didn't just wait until EvilG was janned to make the safe claim because he alluded to wanting Refa's flip back on D2.

just saying @omega that I think the bold is the most important part of town!sb. in context SB's buddies tank, there's no way for him to know most of the roles in the game, and he effectively commits to a Colorblind Cop claim (he'd have to be realllllly inventive to reference that crumb otherwise). from scum!SB's pov all it takes is one decent investigative role other than me and he's 100% fucked on set-up spec.

i get you don't care for roles but this seems airtight to me. even with a mod-given safeclaim he'd want to avoid crumbing so that he wouldn't have to commit to anything

the other big point is that BBM sets himself up like "yeah dewound sucks but larsa REALLY sucks... *huge larsa case* i guess i'll consider switching to larsa later". what scumbuddy does this, like ever? if he's faking content he posts a side suspicion. if he wants to jump off his buddy he does it right then.

[Prims]

(also omega can go back to hardbody mode now if he wants i only made that request to see if his reaction would be telling lol)

[Prims]

Going to bed. Sorry for being so erratic, hopefully we win tomorrow!

[charlie_]

Thought on it for a little bit, and I feel like Prims would've just kept up his attack on me as scum since everyone else seems to want me dead at this point. And Omega is still ridiculously townie on interactions, so #yolo

##Vote: Rapier

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

how were yu considering prims scum given the no kill n1?