Yeah, you need to be a masochist to enjoy Lunatic. Lunatic+ is too painful for them

[Shadow Mir]

I don’t see how it’s a gamble if there’s no chance of death. It's especially trivial since it's unnecessary to attack on player phase (for the most safety), so after Raimi's attack and your counter ends, it's already your turn again to heal/end turn. And there's skipping and such.

In extreme contexts like ltc/speedrun, it’s a wash. Normal/Casual (and like every game without fixed RNG ever) has a significant random component in that case.

fwiw, Frederick has triangle advantage and more Skl (Chrom does have disadvantage but Sword accuracy and Dual Strike+) and probably requires far less hits between his Str and 33 effective mt vs. 12 mt on the Rapier.

Another consideration is, Frederick has Outdoor Fighter and could potentially train Axe rank quickly for the rank bonus with Discipline + Vaike's axe.

The "gamble" part means it's not exactly likely. Also, Outdoor Fighter is terrain dependent, last I checked (and Floor terrain, which the top half of the map is, counts as indoors; I first noticed this on Valm Harbor, but that's neither here nor there). Also, effective damage does not work the way you're saying it does in Awakening (to put it simply, it doesn't modify the weapon's base mt and alter the effective damage after).

Chrom x MU Support C gives a ~40% chance of dual strike, and Raimi is always doubled especially with Chrom support.

Fred x MU Support C gives something less but it's more than 25%.

.4*.4+2(.*4*.6)=.64 which is far higher than 1/4 if you're going the Chrom route.

Support window opens prior to chapter 2 and you should have a C with at least one if not both of them unless you're doing nopairup.

True. It's more that you're either using someone who can hit the broad side of a barn with his effective weapon, but can't do much damage, or gambling on Frederick's crap hit for massive damage. Either way, it reeks of tedium, and tedium is the numero uno reason why it'll be a cold day in Hell before I think Lunatic+ is worth taking on.

[Thor Odinson]

Okay let's get some calculations in here

Hitrate is Skill*3 + Luck/2

Avo is Spd*3 + Luck/2

Raimi has 5 speed and 10 luck in Lunatic

Frederick ha base 12 skill and 6 luck at base

Hammer has 60 hit, Fred has D axes which is +5 hit since Raimi always has lances and thus always suffers WTD against Hammer

Fred has 12*3+6/2+60+5 = 104 hit with Hammer

Raimi has 5*3+10/2 = 20 avoid

that's 84 hit

if 84 hit on a double RN system is by any means bad for you

maybe you shouldn't play variable RNG games

[Shadow Mir]

Okay let's get some calculations in here

Hitrate is Skill*3 + Luck/2

Avo is Spd*3 + Luck/2

Raimi has 5 speed and 10 luck in Lunatic

Frederick ha base 12 skill and 6 luck at base

Hammer has 60 hit, Fred has D axes which is +5 hit since Raimi always has lances and thus always suffers WTD against Hammer

Fred has 12*3+6/2+60+5 = 104 hit with Hammer

Raimi has 5*3+10/2 = 20 avoid

that's 84 hit

if 84 hit on a double RN system is by any means bad for you

maybe you shouldn't play variable RNG games

...Ugh. No.

First off, you left out the gate bonus. Second, that calculation's out-and-out wrong.

(12 * 3 + 6)/2 is 21.

(5 * 3 +10)/2 is 12.

Which means Frederick's looking at 54% hit on Raimi after WTA and gate bonus are factored in - a VERY far cry from reliable.

[XeKr]

The "gamble" part means it's not exactly likely.

And Chrom’s Str growth is 60%. Awakening is obviously too tedious to play if you have to “gamble” everytime Chrom levels up. Let’s not even start to talk about the growth rates in other games.

Point being, it doesn’t matter at all if you miss a few times. What matters is the consequence if luck doesn’t swing your way (don’t proc that Str, or don’t hit an enemy). Sometimes, it might be death and a reset. Here, it’s negligible.

Also, Outdoor Fighter is terrain dependent, last I checked (and Floor terrain, which the top half of the map is, counts as indoors; I first noticed this on Valm Harbor, but that's neither here nor there). Also, effective damage does not work the way you're saying it does in Awakening (to put it simply, it doesn't modify the weapon's base mt and alter the effective damage after).

This is kinda interesting if it’s true but it doesn’t change that Frederick isn’t much more inaccurate than Chrom (or even stuff like Thunder magic) and does far more damage. Wrt your 2nd point, while the rank bonus doesn’t apply until afterwards (so it seems), are you sure the triangle bonus itself works differently than in previous games?

True. It's more that you're either using someone who can hit the broad side of a barn with his effective weapon, but can't do much damage, or gambling on Frederick's crap hit for massive damage. Either way, it reeks of tedium, and tedium is the numero uno reason why it'll be a cold day in Hell before I think Lunatic+ is worth taking on.

Firstly, your overall chance of killing Raimi (in a given number of turns) is still likely better with Frederick than Chrom, even with lower hit rate, simply because you need less hits to actually land (especially relevant with the throne healing).

Secondly, it’s completely fine if you think Lunatic+ is too tedious to play but your specific rationale wrt to probabilities seriously does not make sense.

Edited October 30, 2014 by XeKr

[Thor Odinson]

Well, fuck, misread a parenthesis. My bad there.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Thor Odinson

[Shadow Mir]

And Chrom’s Str growth is 60%. Awakening is obviously too tedious to play if you have to “gamble” everytime Chrom levels up. Let’s not even start to talk about the growth rates in other games.

Point being, it doesn’t matter at all if you miss a few times. What matters is the consequence if luck doesn’t swing your way (don’t proc that Str, or don’t hit an enemy). Sometimes, it might be death and a reset. Here, it’s negligible.

This is kinda interesting if it’s true but it doesn’t change that Frederick isn’t much more inaccurate than Chrom (or even stuff like Thunder magic) and does far more damage. Wrt your 2nd point, while the rank bonus doesn’t apply until afterwards (so it seems), are you sure the triangle bonus itself works differently than in previous games?

Firstly, your overall chance of killing Raimi (in a given number of turns) is still likely better with Frederick than Chrom, even with lower hit rate, simply because you need less hits to actually land (especially relevant with the throne healing).

Secondly, it’s completely fine if you think Lunatic+ is too tedious to play but your specific rationale wrt to probabilities seriously does not make sense.

You're comparing two radically different scenarios here - one is a level up, and the other is a dual strike occurring AND said (rather inaccurate) dual strike hitting. This is what Int would call "apples and oranges".

Yes. I assume it's because the WTB isn't fixed like it was in the games before SD.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Levant Caprice

[Thor Odinson]

Okay. So. assuming I actually don't misread any more parenthesis after being sick, Dual strike is calculated as:

(Lead & Support Unit’s combined Skill / 4) + Support bonus + Skill bonus [%]

Fred x MU C has at least 30+(12+5)/4 = 34% dual strike, likely closer to 35 or 36 since MU is unlikely to be at base if you're actually using them as your front unit here. You're most likely doubling because if MU is also not going to be at base if you are using them to front (otherwise, if you're doing noMU, Fred!Javelin front with Chrom back is a good plan and Chrom definitely doubles) Chances of scoring a dual strike is thus .56. 54 hit in 2RN system is 58.14% true hit, so that's a .328 chance of success or only slightly under 1/3 on a boss that doesn't even move and definitely can't kill you if you don't play it stupidly. You have no chance of failure aka dying. You can do that with all animations off skip enemy phase in under 1 minute.

I don't see the issue here.

Edited October 30, 2014 by Thor Odinson

[XeKr]

You're comparing two radically different scenarios here - one is a level up, and the other is a dual strike occurring AND said (rather inaccurate) dual strike hitting. This is what Int would call "apples and oranges".

I assume your contention is not with the probabilistic argument so you can pretend I cherrypicked another growth rate.

You seem to think than Frederick cannot reliably help kill Raimi. That’s incorrect, Frederick reliably kills Raimi around 99.9999etc% of the time (essentially 100% if not the completely negligible chance of stuff breaking). What changes is the number of turns/real time it takes to kill Raimi, which is ultimately insignificant in the scheme of things given the few actions it takes and the animation skipping.

Moreover, I can’t reconcile your argument with the following:

1. Why is your argument unique to Lunatic+? Frederick is probably your best option in Lunatic as well, and his “chances” are around the same, no? (except he can be the front unit all the time instead of some percentage of the time Raimi has Counter) Moreover, this kind of RNG thing (where you might take extra turns/real time) happens in every single FE game in different manners, in many forms.

2. Why does it matter Chrom can “reliably” hit Raimi (by your consideration he can actually “hit the broad side of a barn”), if on average he requires far more hits?

Edited October 30, 2014 by XeKr

[Shadow Mir]

I assume your contention is not with the probabilistic argument so you can pretend I cherrypicked another growth rate.

You seem to think than Frederick cannot reliably help kill Raimi. That’s incorrect, Frederick reliably kills Raimi around 99.9999etc% of the time (essentially 100% if not the completely negligible chance of stuff breaking). What changes is the number of turns/real time it takes to kill Raimi, which is ultimately insignificant in the scheme of things given the few actions it takes and the animation skipping.

Moreover, I can’t reconcile your argument with the following:

1. Why is your argument unique to Lunatic+? Frederick is probably your best option in Lunatic as well, and his “chances” are around the same, no? (except he can be the front unit all the time instead of some percentage of the time Raimi has Counter) Moreover, this kind of RNG thing (where you might take extra turns/real time) happens in every single FE game in different manners, in many forms.

2. Why does it matter Chrom can “reliably” hit Raimi (by your consideration he can actually “hit the broad side of a barn”), if on average he requires far more hits?

As to #1, it's probably what I said that got this started in the first place (seeing a Rey video where Raimi had Counter, which I'd easily consider grounds for a restart; granted, though, she won't have it all the time). On vanilla Lunatic, Counter's not an issue, so yeah.

[Czar_Yoshi]

Wow, this thread is turning into an extension of The Lunatic Club now?

There are no archer bosses period

There aren't any bosses, no, but there are two dudes with bows in Cht.22 with stats high enough to count. Notably Bovis, a BK who always has a Brave Bow++ and Bowbreaker. There are plenty of skills Lunatic+ can give him to make him a real jerk.

I generally unequip my Raimi attacker's support to try to milk her for as much exp as I can before going in for the kill, so I've never had a problem with this issue. However, I would like to issue a reminder that when one receives one of two outcomes randomly, it doesn't matter which one you get if there are no bad outcomes.

However, a solution for those who really don't want to risk taking an extra turn to kill Raimi is to remember that Counter doesn't hurt you if you KO the opponent. So, here's a case-by-case walkthrough on how to handle Raimi without dual strikes and rarely taking over two turns.

Raimi has 42 HP, 12 Def, 1 Res and a Gate (and 5 Spd). A leading Lv.1 Fred with a Hammer supported by Virion (no support ranks) has 13(base) +2(Virion) +30(Hammer) =45 Atk against Raimi, translating to a 30 damage strike (15 with Pavise+).

Avatar can be assumed to have at least 9 Mag for Int's Cht.2 strat (he/she likely has a lot more but let's play it safe here). Thus, Avatar's minimum Atk is 9(base) +4(Miriel) +3(Thunder) +1(WRB) = 17, translating to a 13 damage strike against Raimi (6 with Aegis+- if this is the case, switch to Fire for better Hit, as it won't change damage).

So how will this play out here? Assume Raimi has Counter and Aegis+.

Avatar doubles and does 6+6, leaving Raimi at 30 HP. Fred Hammers and does 30 for an OHKO, bypassing Counter. What if she's got Counter and Pavise+?

Avatar doubles and does 13+13, leaving Raimi with 16 HP. Since Fred does 15, all Avatar needs is one Mag proc over what he/she usually has by early Cht.1 at the latest for a kill. One more proc allows use of Fire.

What happens if Raimi has both Aegis+ and Pavise+? Fred need not fear Counter, and can double for 15+15, still getting the kill.

What about Luna+/Counter? We'll have Avatar double with Fire on EP. He/she will survive, Raimi will take 26. Next turn, assuming Raimi took enough damage, pull Avatar back and park Fred in front of Raimi (don't attack, you want to fight on EP. A double miss actually would kill you here (by 2 damage)). Raimi will recover a bit of HP, but not enough to put her over 30. Fred OHKOes on EP.

Note that in general, if Fred misses on any non-Luna+ build he's not in trouble since Counter won't hit him and Raimi is only doing 23-16 = 7 damage per hit- it'll take her four turns to get rid of a base Fred who isn't healing. Avatar needs a little bit of Def to survive two hits, but is in range of Lissa and is thus never a concern if Raimi gets an extra attack due to a miss. Obviously, if Avatar misses, wait until next turn to send in Fred.

Now, does anyone have concerns that these may not be adequate? Because I can throw more numbers around if needbe.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Czar_Yoshi

[Thor Odinson]

Thank god for dual strike's existence when dealing with that asshole at least dear lord

If Morgan can't hit him at least there's Lucina ready with PFalchion in the back

(taking 2 hits to the face still sucks either way)

Edited October 31, 2014 by Thor Odinson

[XeKr]

snip

That would require doing something smart.

But seriously, I think the reason we glossed over something like that is, as Levant Caprice kinda mentioned, we were focusing on a case similar to shadowofchaos’ video (whichever one it was), where Robin (presumably) did very little damage at range vs. Aegis+ (mitigated by throne healing). If Robin’s Mag is high enough, I suppose there’s little reason not to just power through Aegis+ or w/e. edit: then again, actually checking, Raimi's Res is kinda terribad regardless. >_>

On a slightly related note, I believe there are 21 unique combinations of L+ skills (7 choose 2), so each case of 2 specific skills (like the Counter/Aegis+ in question) is just 5.8ish% likely if all equal. Plus for a single enemy/boss like Raimi, one can just take 5 secs to enter/exit, no?

Edited October 31, 2014 by XeKr

[Czar_Yoshi]

I'm not finding this video where SoC ran into an Aegis+/Counter Raimi and had a tough time as a result. Can someone point me to it?

[Roflolxp54]

I'm not finding this video where SoC ran into an Aegis+/Counter Raimi and had a tough time as a result. Can someone point me to it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CztvewxSpfw

Here you go.

[Czar_Yoshi]

His problem was trying to get the kill with Chrom, and not using the Hammer (on top of having a low level Avatar and very bad RNG, though part of that could be mitigated with Fire). Fred could have taken that 17 HP higher, and had multiple opportunities to do so (granted, several of the earlier ones would have seen a double miss result in death, but if he had made Fred chip with the Javelin earlier then he could have gotten a safe one set up almost immediately).

By the way, a Chrom vs Fred hitrate comparison, assuming both of them have no +Skl from their support, but do get Hit+10 from support:

Chrom: 14(base) + 90(Rapier) +10(support) -15(WTD) = 99

Fred: 21(base) + 60(Hammer) +10(support) +5(WTB) = 96

That's pretty close. Both of them are getting 32 knocked off by Raimi's Avo, so it's 67 vs 64.